MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 3 – 2
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs

Diamondbacks: 12-9 (57.1%) | Merrill Kelly (R): 3-1 (75.0%)

Cubs: 14-9 (60.9%) | Jameson Taillon (R): 2-2 (50.0%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Diamondbacks

+110

+1.5 (-207)

o3.5 (+103)

7.0

Cubs

-129

-1.5 (+171)

o3.5 (-125)

Open

Diamondbacks

+106

+1.5 (-207)

o3.5 (+103)

7.0

Cubs

-123

-1.5 (+171)

o3.5 (-125)

Odds Full MLB odds board

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Games
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Injury Report ARINo report CHCNo report

Notes — no active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Diamondbacks

M. Kelly	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Cubs

J. Taillon	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/23/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	-	vs.	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	-	-158	8.5
04/22/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	-	vs.	Rays Zack Littell (R)	-	-178	9.0
04/20/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	-	@	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	-	+120	7.5
04/19/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	2	@	Cubs Ben Brown (R)	6	+110	7.5
04/18/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	11	@	Cubs Colin Rea (R)	13	-112	11.5
04/17/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	6	@	Marlins Edward Cabrera (R)	4	-154	8.5
04/16/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	6	@	Marlins Max Meyer (R)	2	-146	8.5
04/15/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	10	@	Marlins Connor Gillispie (R)	4	-166	8.5
04/13/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	5	vs.	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	2	-118	8.0
04/12/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	5	vs.	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	4	-178	9.5
04/11/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	0	vs.	Brewers Jose Quintana (L)	7	-152	9.0
04/09/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	9	vs.	Orioles Dean Kremer (R)	0	-118	9.0
04/08/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	4	vs.	Orioles Charlie Morton (R)	3	-104	9.5

Away Games Avg (5 games)		7.0	-	-	5.8	-130	8.9

All Games Avg (10 games)		5.8	-	-	4.5	-131	9.0

Cubs Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/23/25 2025	Cubs Matthew Boyd (L)	-	vs.	Dodgers Ben Casparius (R)	-	-126	9.0
04/22/25 2025	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	-	vs.	Dodgers Dustin May (R)	-	-100	9.0
04/20/25 2025	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	-	vs.	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	-	-142	7.5
04/19/25 2025	Cubs Ben Brown (R)	6	vs.	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	2	-130	7.5
04/18/25 2025	Cubs Colin Rea (R)	13	vs.	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	11	-104	11.5
04/16/25 2025	Cubs Matthew Boyd (L)	2	@	Padres Nick Pivetta (R)	4	-108	7.5
04/15/25 2025	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	2	@	Padres Randy Vasquez (R)	1 F/10	-156	8.0
04/14/25 2025	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	4	@	Padres Dylan Cease (R)	10	+126	7.5
04/13/25 2025	Cubs Colin Rea (R)	4	@	Dodgers Tyler Glasnow (R)	2	+190	9.0
04/12/25 2025	Cubs Ben Brown (R)	16	@	Dodgers Roki Sasaki (R)	0	+152	8.5
04/11/25 2025	Cubs Matthew Boyd (L)	0	@	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	3	+150	8.5
04/09/25 2025	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	2	vs.	Rangers Tyler Mahle (R)	6	-174	7.5
04/08/25 2025	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	10	vs.	Rangers Patrick Corbin (L)	6	-162	8.0

Home Games Avg (4 games)		7.8	-	-	6.3	-139	8.6

All Games Avg (10 games)		5.9	-	-	4.5	-102	8.4

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Merrill Kelly's mix vs. CHC bats

Merrill Kelly's pitches			CHC hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Changeup	27.1%	88.3	29.8% 12th	35.1% 21st	.240 10th	.325 9th	.301 5th	.540 4th	.215 4th	36.8% 6th	8.6% 7th	87.2 9th
4-Seam Fastball	23.2%	91.9	20.8% 14th	23.0% 11th	.238 25th	.347 6th	.354 11th	.673 4th	.326 6th	50.0% 7th	13.1% 6th	92.1 8th
Cutter	20.2%	90.6	23.2% 22nd	26.0% 14th	.292 8th	.317 26th	.353 14th	.573 13th	.256 10th	39.6% 17th	9.9% 12th	88.3 17th
Sinker	12.9%	92.3	13.7% 14th	26.9% 26th	.267 26th	.331 11th	.367 2nd	.534 9th	.203 7th	39.7% 29th	7.5% 11th	88.7 26th
Curveball	9.7%	81.7	30.4% 14th	25.5% 3rd	.240 7th	.351 5th	.306 5th	.633 2nd	.282 3rd	36.5% 19th	12.4% 2nd	87.2 20th
Slider	7.0%	85.8	33.2% 16th	29.8% 5th	.212 26th	.295 30th	.278 27th	.502 28th	.207 23rd	32.8% 30th	7.7% 24th	85.5 30th
Whole mix, by usage			24.6% 12th	28.1% 19th	.252 15th	.330 11th	.331 5th	.583 4th	.253 3rd	40.5% 19th	10.1% 5th	88.6 17th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Merrill Kelly's; every other column is CHC's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is CHC's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Jameson Taillon's mix vs. ARI bats

Jameson Taillon's pitches			ARI hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	38.2%	92.3	16.8% 1st	21.1% 2nd	.265 3rd	.324 26th	.362 4th	.599 22nd	.275 18th	45.1% 25th	11.6% 15th	90.8 20th
Sweeper	15.6%	80.2	30.2% 12th	32.2% 26th	.207 19th	.281 25th	.268 15th	.492 23rd	.211 19th	28.8% 24th	8.1% 16th	85.3 22nd
Cutter	14.8%	85.7	16.9% 1st	25.5% 8th	.286 9th	.340 7th	.384 2nd	.618 5th	.278 4th	41.1% 10th	10.7% 6th	88.2 18th
Curveball	12.9%	79.6	28.4% 9th	25.9% 4th	.220 20th	.340 8th	.321 2nd	.562 12th	.222 15th	35.3% 25th	6.9% 21st	87.2 20th
Changeup	11.3%	83.9	28.4% 8th	33.1% 13th	.240 10th	.305 21st	.290 15th	.494 21st	.189 15th	38.8% 3rd	7.0% 17th	87.6 5th
Sinker	7.2%	92.3	11.4% 1st	21.2% 2nd	.273 20th	.323 17th	.350 11th	.501 17th	.178 15th	48.9% 3rd	6.9% 15th	90.5 2nd
Whole mix, by usage			21.3% 2nd	25.5% 5th	.251 10th	.320 24th	.336 5th	.561 17th	.242 16th	40.3% 22nd	9.5% 17th	88.7 19th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Jameson Taillon's; every other column is ARI's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is ARI's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Merrill Kelly Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/15	MIA [ 4 ]	ARI [ 10 ]	-166	8.5	6	88	9	1	3	0	1	1	Connor Gillispie (R)
4/8	ARI [ 4 ]	BAL [ 3 ]	-104	9.5	6	89	4	2	3	0	2	3	Charlie Morton (R)
4/3	NYY [ 9 ]	ARI [ 7 ]	+108	9.5	3.67	80	2	3	9	3	9	9	Carlos Carrasco (R)
3/28	ARI [ 8 ]	CHC [ 1 ]	-145	9	5.33	85	1	4	3	0	1	1	Jameson Taillon (R)
9/27	ARI [ 3 ]	SDP [ 5 ]	-126	9	5.67	99	8	1	8	0	5	5	Yu Darvish (R)
Averages:					5.33	88.2	4.8	2.2	5.2	0.6	3.6	3.8

Jameson Taillon Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/14	SDP [ 10 ]	CHC [ 4 ]	+126	7.5	5.33	89	4	1	4	1	2	2	Dylan Cease (R)
4/8	CHC [ 10 ]	TEX [ 6 ]	-162	8	6	85	6	1	5	1	3	3	Patrick Corbin (L)
4/2	ATH [ 2 ]	CHC [ 10 ]	+102	8.5	6	94	7	3	4	1	2	2	Jeffrey Springs (L)
3/28	ARI [ 8 ]	CHC [ 1 ]	+120	9	4.33	80	1	0	9	2	6	6	Merrill Kelly (R)
9/27	CHC [ 1 ]	CIN [ 0 ]	-126	6.5	7	89	2	2	4	0	0	0	Nick Martinez (R)
Averages:					5.73	87.4	4	1.4	5.2	1	2.6	2.6

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

ARI Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/17	4/18	4/19	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Ryan Thompson	1.1 (33)	·	·	1	1.1	33	2	2	2	1
AJ Puk	1.0 (21)	·	·	1	1.0	21	1	0	1	0
JP Feyereisen	·	·	1.0 (23)	1	1.0	23	1	0	1	0
Jalen Beeks	1.0 (21)	·	·	1	1.0	21	3	1	0	0
Juan Morillo	·	·	1.0 (20)	1	1.0	20	2	1	0	0
Bryce Jarvis	·	0.2 (16)	·	1	0.2	16	2	1	1	3
Joe Mantiply	·	0.2 (26)	·	1	0.2	26	1	0	6	3
Ryne Nelson	·	0.2 (36)	·	1	0.2	36	2	1	5	5
Justin Martinez	0.1 (10)	·	·	1	0.1	10	1	1	0	0
Team Totals (9 arms used):				9	7.2	206	15	7	16	12

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

CHC Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/17	4/18	4/19	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Caleb Thielbar ⚠	·	0.1 (8)	2.0 (20)	2	2.1	28	1	1	0	0
Brad Keller ⚠	·	1.0 (12)	1.0 (10)	2	2.0	22	3	0	0	0
Daniel Palencia	·	·	2.0 (27)	1	2.0	27	2	1	1	1
Julian Merryweather	·	1.0 (19)	·	1	1.0	19	1	0	1	0
Ryan Pressly	·	1.0 (7)	·	1	1.0	7	0	0	1	0
Porter Hodge	·	0.2 (31)	·	1	0.2	31	1	2	4	6
Ethan Roberts	·	0.1 (7)	·	1	0.1	7	0	0	1	1
Jordan Wicks	·	0.0 (5)	·	1	0.0	5	0	0	3	3
Team Totals (8 arms used):				10	9.1	146	8	4	11	11

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

Notable Trends

The Cubs are 75% (6-2) to the over as a home fav

The Cubs are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

View All Records

Cubs (Home)

The Cubs are 58.3% (14-10) on the moneyline

The Cubs are 62.5% (5-3) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Cubs are 65.2% (15-8-1) to the over

The Cubs are 75% (6-2) to the over as a home fav

The Cubs are 63.6% (14-8) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Cubs are 62.5% (5-3) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Cubs are 66.7% (14-7-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Cubs are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Diamondbacks (Away)

The Diamondbacks are 59.1% (13-9) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 50% (2-2) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Diamondbacks are 50% (10-10-2) to the over

The Diamondbacks are 50% (2-2) to the over as an away dog

The Diamondbacks are 59.1% (13-9) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Diamondbacks are 50% (10-10-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Diamondbacks are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
04/19/25 2025	Cubs Ben Brown (R)	6	vs.	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	2	-130	7.5	-4	O 8 +0.5
04/18/25 2025	Cubs Colin Rea (R)	13	vs.	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	11	-104	11.5	-2	O 24 +12.5
03/30/25 2025	Cubs Matthew Boyd (L)	6	@	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	10	-104	9.0	+4	O 16 +7.0
03/29/25 2025	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	4	@	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	3	+100	9.0	-1	U 7 -2.0
03/28/25 2025	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	1	@	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	8	+120	9.0	+7	P 9 0.0
03/27/25 2025	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	10	@	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	6	+108	8.5	-4	O 16 +7.5
07/21/24 2024	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	2	vs.	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	1 F/10	-130	7.0	-1	U 3 -4.0

Cubs as Home (3 games)		7.0	-	-	4.7	-121	8.7	-2.3	O 11.7 +3.0

All Games Avg (7 games)		6.0	-	-	5.9	-105	8.8	-0.1	O 11.9 +3.1

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 3 – 2 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Arizona Diamondbacks", home_team: "Chicago Cubs", game_date: "2025-04-20" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report ARINo report CHCNo report

Diamondbacks

Cubs

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Schedules

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Cubs Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Cubs (Home)

Diamondbacks (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 3 – 2
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs