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NCAAF Market Ratings
How the market rates every team, derived from closing betting lines rather than actual results.
Spread ratings are fit from each team's closing point-spread lines (or, for MLB/NHL, closing moneylines — their spread/puck line is fixed and carries no signal) -- a single power number showing how much better or worse than an average team the market prices them, plus a team-specific home-court/field/ice advantage.
Total ratings are fit the same way but from closing over/under lines instead -- how many points/runs/goals this team's presence adds to (or subtracts from) the game total, combining offense, pace, and defense into one number rather than splitting them apart. They get a home-park effect too, but a relative one: how much more or less than an AVERAGE park this team's home venue adds to the total (not an absolute boost over zero, which isn't reliably separable from the league's normal scoring level without real neutral-site games to compare against). Validated against known park factors -- Coors Field's altitude-driven run inflation shows up as the clear #1 outlier in MLB.
