WNBA Game Matchups & Analysis

1:00 p.m.
New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun

Liberty: 21-14 (60.0%) | Market Rating: +2.39

Sun: 8-24 (25.0%) | Market Rating: -3.05

Line: +7.5

Total: 169.5

Open: +8

Open: 176

Injury Report Aug 15, 3:47 PM ET NYL3 Out CON2 Out

NYL

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Leonie Fiebich	29.1	Out	Head coach Chris DeMarco said Sunday that Fiebich is progressing in her recovery but is still without a timetable for a return to game action, Madeline Kenney of the New York Post reports.
Sabrina Ionescu	30.3	Out	Ionescu (foot) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Sun, Jackie Powell of The IX Sports reports.
Satou Sabally	16.8	Out	out

Not in rotation (under 3 MPG): Annika Soltau, Manuela Puoch, Seehia Ridard

CON

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Aaliyah Edwards	19.2	Out	Edwards (ankle) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against New York.
Maria Kliundikova	11.3 ’25	Out	The Tempo traded Kliundikova's (not injury related) rights along with a second-round pick to the Sun in exchange for Aneesah Morrow, Myles Ehrlich of Winsidr.com reports.

MPG = this season's average. ’25 = last season's average (player hasn't appeared yet this season). Players under 3 MPG in both seasons are listed under “Not in rotation.”

Notes

Liberty

Nothing active

Sun

Situational Factor(s)

In season revenge

Baller System(s)

Don't Be Scared to Shoot

Double Revenge Low Scoring

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Liberty

54.06% probability

Total Recommendation

No Play

View All Algorithms

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Loading team comparison stats...

Records

Loading records...

Schedules

Liberty Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/22/26	2026	Liberty	-	home	Fever	-	0.0	-	-	-
08/18/26	2026	Liberty	-	away	Sky	-	0.0	-	-	-
08/15/26	2026	Liberty	-	away	Sun	-	-7.5	169.5	-	-
08/13/26	2026	Liberty	85	home	Sparks	81	-8.0	187.0	-4	166
08/11/26	2026	Liberty	92	away	Fever	106	+3.0	190.5	+14	198
08/09/26	2026	Liberty	111	home	Aces	71	-11.5	175.5	-40	182
08/05/26	2026	Liberty	92	home	Storm	86	-8.0	183.5	-6	178
08/03/26	2026	Liberty	95	home	Storm	83	-7.5	182.0	-12	178
08/01/26	2026	Liberty	94	away	Mercury	92	-3.0	177.0	-2	186
07/30/26	2026	Liberty	99	away	Aces	104	+4.5	182.0	+5	203
07/28/26	2026	Liberty	113	away	Sparks	109	-5.0	182.5	-4	222
07/22/26	2026	Liberty	95	home	Sky	94	-7.5	178.5	-1	189
07/20/26	2026	Liberty	99	away	Wings	98	-4.5	174.5	-1	197
Away Games Avg (5 games)			99.4	-	-	101.8	-1.0	181.3	+2.4	201.2
All Games Avg (10 games)			97.5	-	-	92.4	-4.8	181.3	-5.1	189.9

Sun Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/20/26	2026	Sun	-	away	Aces	-	0.0	-	-	-
08/18/26	2026	Sun	-	home	Sparks	-	0.0	-	-	-
08/15/26	2026	Sun	-	home	Liberty	-	+7.5	169.5	-	-
08/13/26	2026	Sun	69	home	Dream	104	+10.0	173.5	+35	173
08/07/26	2026	Sun	75	home	Mercury	72	+5.5	173.5	-3	147
08/02/26	2026	Sun	63	away	Wings	83	+11.0	173.5	+20	146
07/30/26	2026	Sun	88	away	Sky	94	+5.5	176.5	+6	182
07/28/26	2026	Sun	84	away	Mystics	92	+6.5	161.0	+8	176
07/22/26	2026	Sun	88	away	Fever	123	+10.5	178.0	+35	211
07/19/26	2026	Sun	63	away	Mercury	72	+4.5	165.0	+9	135
07/17/26	2026	Sun	96	away	Mercury	83	+4.0	163.5	-13	179
07/14/26	2026	Sun	90	home	Fire	87	-2.5	167.0	-3	177
07/10/26	2026	Sun	64	home	Valkyries	79	+6.0	154.0	+15	143
Home Games Avg (4 games)			74.5	-	-	85.5	+4.8	167.0	+11.0	160.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			78.0	-	-	88.9	+6.1	168.6	+10.9	166.9

Notable Trends

The Sun are 16.7% (2-10) to the over/under as a home dog

The Sun are 25% (2-6) (L30 days) against the spread

The Sun are 25% (2-6) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Liberty are 18.8% (3-13-2) against the spread away

The Liberty are 9.1% (1-10-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Liberty are 88.9% (16-2) to the over/under away

The Liberty are 100% (12-0) to the over/under as an away fav

The Liberty are 18.2% (2-9) (L30 days) against the spread

The Liberty are 0% (0-6) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Liberty are 22.2% (2-7) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Liberty are 0% (0-4) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Liberty are 72.7% (8-3) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Liberty are 100% (6-0) (L30 days) to the over/under away

The Liberty are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away fav

View All Records

Sun (Home)

The Sun are 46.9% (15-17) against the spread

The Sun are 56.3% (9-7) against the spread at home

The Sun are 50% (14-14) against the spread as a dog

The Sun are 66.7% (8-4) against the spread as a home dog

The Sun are 50% (16-16) to the over/under

The Sun are 37.5% (6-10) to the over/under at home

The Sun are 42.9% (12-16) to the over/under as a dog

The Sun are 16.7% (2-10) to the over/under as a home dog

The Sun are 25% (2-6) (L30 days) against the spread

The Sun are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Sun are 25% (2-6) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Sun are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Sun are 50% (4-4) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Sun are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) to the over/under at home

The Sun are 50% (4-4) (L30 days) to the over/under as a dog

The Sun are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home dog

Liberty (Away)

The Liberty are 38.2% (13-21-2) against the spread

The Liberty are 18.8% (3-13-2) against the spread away

The Liberty are 35.7% (10-18-1) against the spread as a fav

The Liberty are 9.1% (1-10-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Liberty are 61.1% (22-14) to the over/under

The Liberty are 88.9% (16-2) to the over/under away

The Liberty are 58.6% (17-12) to the over/under as a fav

The Liberty are 100% (12-0) to the over/under as an away fav

The Liberty are 18.2% (2-9) (L30 days) against the spread

The Liberty are 0% (0-6) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Liberty are 22.2% (2-7) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Liberty are 0% (0-4) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Liberty are 72.7% (8-3) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Liberty are 100% (6-0) (L30 days) to the over/under away

The Liberty are 66.7% (6-3) (L30 days) to the over/under as a fav

The Liberty are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/08/26	2026	Sun	80	Home	Liberty	89	+13.0	163.5	+9	169
05/08/26	2026	Sun	75	Away	Liberty	106	+9.5	159.5	+31	181
08/25/25	2025	Sun	79	Away	Liberty	81	+14.0	167.5	+2	160
08/03/25	2025	Sun	78	Home	Liberty	87	+11.5	171.0	+9	165
08/01/25	2025	Sun	78	Home	Liberty	62	+12.0	172.0	-16	140
06/01/25	2025	Sun	52	Away	Liberty	100	+18.5	164.5	+48	152
08/24/24	2024	Sun	72	Away	Liberty	64	+8.0	158.0	-8	136
07/16/24	2024	Sun	74	Away	Liberty	82	-2.0	152.5	+8	156
07/10/24	2024	Sun	68	Home	Liberty	71	+2.5	159.0	+3	139
06/08/24	2024	Sun	75	Home	Liberty	82	+2.0	154.0	+7	157
Sun as Home (5 games)			75.8	-	-	78.2	+8.2	163.9	+2.4	154.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			73.1	-	-	82.4	+8.9	162.2	+9.3	155.5

Algorithm	Recommendation
Basic + Advanced Analysis Simple 4-feature logreg. Medium Confidence: 9-7 (56.3%)	Neutral
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors. High Confidence: 10-6 (62.5%)	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials. High Confidence: 12-16 (42.9%)	Neutral
SOS Adjusted Regression Ratio + ridge adjusted ratings, 9 context features, 2 spread features. All z-scored differentials. High Confidence: 25-32-1 (43.9%) Medium Confidence: 15-14 (51.7%)	Liberty
Cover Summary	Liberty
Paint Stat Focus Paint-focused total predictions. Medium Confidence: 37-25 (59.7%)	Neutral
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate Medium Confidence: 25-30 (45.5%)	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Liberty \| No Total Edge

WNBA Game Matchups & Analysis

1:00 p.m. New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "New York Liberty", home_team: "Connecticut Sun", game_date: null };

Injury Report Aug 15, 3:47 PM ET NYL3 Out CON2 Out

Notes

Liberty

Sun

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Schedules

Liberty Schedule

Sun Schedule

Notable Trends

View All Records

Sun (Home)

Liberty (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

1:00 p.m.
New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun