WNBA Game Matchups & Analysis

7:00 p.m.
Indiana Fever @ New York Liberty

Fever: 24-13 (64.9%) | Market Rating: +3.53

Liberty: 22-15 (59.5%) | Market Rating: +2.63

Line: -2.5

Total: 187.0

Open: +1

Open: 187.5

Injury Report Aug 22, 4:17 AM ET IND1 Out2 Questionable NYL2 Out1 Questionable

IND

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Damiris Dantas	8.2	Out	Dantas underwent left knee surgery Tuesday and will miss the remainder of the 2026 season, the Fever announced.
Aliyah Boston	28.1	Questionable	Boston (lower leg) is listed as questionable for Saturday's game against the Liberty.
Caitlin Clark	31.0	Questionable	Clark (back) is probable for Saturday's game against the Liberty.

NYL

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Leonie Fiebich	29.1	Out	Fiebich (foot) is questionable for Saturday's game against the Fever.
Satou Sabally	16.8	Out	out
Jonquel Jones	28.9	Questionable	Jones (ankle) is listed as questionable for Saturday's game against the Fever.

Not in rotation (under 3 MPG): Annika Soltau, Manuela Puoch, Seehia Ridard

MPG = this season's average. ’25 = last season's average (player hasn't appeared yet this season). Players under 3 MPG in both seasons are listed under “Not in rotation.”

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

Travel fatigue, at least fourth straight game on the road

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller System(s)

No Revenge for Home Team

Don't Be Scared to Shoot

Liberty

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Double digit, in season revenge

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Back team off more rest and has more rest in upcoming game than opponent

Bounceback Rested Home Team

Bounceback Road Favorite

Home Elite Team

Don't Be Scared to Shoot

Double Revenge Low Scoring

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

No Play

Total Recommendation

No Play

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Team Comparison Stats Loading...

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Records

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Schedules

Fever Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/28/26	2026	Fever	-	home	Sun	-	0.0	-	-	-
08/23/26	2026	Fever	-	away	Sky	-	0.0	-	-	-
08/22/26	2026	Fever	-	away	Liberty	-	+2.5	187.0	-	-
08/20/26	2026	Fever	85	away	Wings	91	-3.5	185.0	+6	176 (-9.0)
08/18/26	2026	Fever	101	away	Tempo	95	-10.5	190.5	-6	196 (+5.5)
08/16/26	2026	Fever	95	away	Dream	91	+1.5	188.0	-4	186 (-2.0)
08/14/26	2026	Fever	98	home	Wings	87	-8.5	186.0	-11	185 (-1.0)
08/11/26	2026	Fever	106	home	Liberty	92	-3.0	190.5	-14	198 (+7.5)
08/08/26	2026	Fever	90	away	Sky	86	-6.0	191.5	-4	176 (-15.5)
08/06/26	2026	Fever	84	home	Aces	86	-0.5	193.0	+2	170 (-23.0)
08/02/26	2026	Fever	100	away	Lynx	108	+5.5	191.5	+8	208 (+16.5)
07/31/26	2026	Fever	112	away	Fire	98	-8.0	187.5	-14	210 (+22.5)
07/28/26	2026	Fever	105	away	Storm	95	-8.5	187.0	-10	200 (+13.0)
Away Games Avg (7 games)			98.3	-	-	94.9	-4.2	188.7	-3.4	193.1 (+4.4)
All Games Avg (10 games)			97.6	-	-	92.9	-4.2	189.1	-4.7	190.5 (+1.5)

Liberty Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/29/26	2026	Liberty	-	home	Sky	-	0.0	-	-	-
08/27/26	2026	Liberty	-	home	Valkyries	-	0.0	-	-	-
08/22/26	2026	Liberty	-	home	Fever	-	-2.5	187.0	-	-
08/18/26	2026	Liberty	86	away	Sky	93	-4.0	180.0	+7	179 (-1.0)
08/15/26	2026	Liberty	82	away	Sun	75	-8.0	171.0	-7	157 (-14.0)
08/13/26	2026	Liberty	85	home	Sparks	81	-8.0	187.0	-4	166 (-21.0)
08/11/26	2026	Liberty	92	away	Fever	106	+3.0	190.5	+14	198 (+7.5)
08/09/26	2026	Liberty	111	home	Aces	71	-11.5	175.5	-40	182 (+6.5)
08/05/26	2026	Liberty	92	home	Storm	86	-8.0	183.5	-6	178 (-5.5)
08/03/26	2026	Liberty	95	home	Storm	83	-7.5	182.0	-12	178 (-4.0)
08/01/26	2026	Liberty	94	away	Mercury	92	-3.0	177.0	-2	186 (+9.0)
07/30/26	2026	Liberty	99	away	Aces	104	+4.5	182.0	+5	203 (+21.0)
07/28/26	2026	Liberty	113	away	Sparks	109	-5.0	182.5	-4	222 (+39.5)
Home Games Avg (4 games)			95.8	-	-	80.3	-8.8	182.0	-15.5	176.0 (-6.0)
All Games Avg (10 games)			94.9	-	-	90.0	-4.8	181.1	-4.9	184.9 (+3.8)

Notable Trends

The Liberty are 29.4% (5-12) to the over/under as a home fav

The Liberty are 18.2% (2-9) (L30 days) against the spread

The Liberty are 22.2% (2-7) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) against the spread away

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Liberty (Home)

The Liberty are 36.1% (13-23-2) against the spread

The Liberty are 55.6% (10-8) against the spread at home

The Liberty are 33.3% (10-20-1) against the spread as a fav

The Liberty are 52.9% (9-8) against the spread as a home fav

The Liberty are 57.9% (22-16) to the over/under

The Liberty are 33.3% (6-12) to the over/under at home

The Liberty are 54.8% (17-14) to the over/under as a fav

The Liberty are 29.4% (5-12) to the over/under as a home fav

The Liberty are 18.2% (2-9) (L30 days) against the spread

The Liberty are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Liberty are 22.2% (2-7) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Liberty are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Liberty are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Liberty are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) to the over/under at home

The Liberty are 44.4% (4-5) (L30 days) to the over/under as a fav

The Liberty are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

Fever (Away)

The Fever are 45.9% (17-20) against the spread

The Fever are 38.9% (7-11) against the spread away

The Fever are 44.4% (4-5) against the spread as a dog

The Fever are 42.9% (3-4) against the spread as an away dog

The Fever are 59.5% (22-15) to the over/under

The Fever are 55.6% (10-8) to the over/under away

The Fever are 66.7% (6-3) to the over/under as a dog

The Fever are 57.1% (4-3) to the over/under as an away dog

The Fever are 45.5% (5-6) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fever are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Fever are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Fever are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Fever are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Fever are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the over/under away

The Fever are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as a dog

The Fever are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/11/26	2026	Liberty	92	Away	Fever	106	+3.0	190.5	+14	198
07/18/26	2026	Liberty	88	Away	Fever	108	-1.5	184.0	+20	196
06/06/26	2026	Liberty	83	Home	Fever	75	-3.5	174.0	-8	158
07/22/25	2025	Liberty	98	Home	Fever	84	-10.5	163.0	-14	182
07/16/25	2025	Liberty	98	Home	Fever	77	-10.0	163.0	-21	175
06/14/25	2025	Liberty	88	Away	Fever	102	-3.5	170.0	+14	190
05/24/25	2025	Liberty	90	Away	Fever	88	-4.0	173.5	-2	178
07/06/24	2024	Liberty	78	Away	Fever	83	-10.5	174.5	+5	161
06/02/24	2024	Liberty	104	Home	Fever	68	-14.5	169.0	-36	172
05/18/24	2024	Liberty	91	Home	Fever	80	-14.0	169.0	-11	171
Liberty as Home (5 games)			94.8	-	-	76.8	-10.5	167.6	-18.0	171.6
All Games Avg (10 games)			91.0	-	-	87.1	-6.9	173.1	-3.9	178.1

Algorithm	Recommendation
Basic + Advanced Analysis Simple 4-feature logreg. Medium Confidence: 10-7 (58.8%)	Neutral
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors. High Confidence: 11-7 (61.1%)	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials. High Confidence: 12-17 (41.4%)	Neutral
SOS Adjusted Regression Ratio + ridge adjusted ratings, 9 context features, 2 spread features. All z-scored differentials. High Confidence: 26-35-1 (42.6%) Medium Confidence: 15-15 (50%)	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
Paint Stat Focus Paint-focused total predictions. Medium Confidence: 39-29 (57.4%)	Neutral
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate Medium Confidence: 31-34 (47.7%)	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

WNBA Game Matchups & Analysis

7:00 p.m. Indiana Fever @ New York Liberty window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Indiana Fever", home_team: "New York Liberty", game_date: null };

Injury Report Aug 22, 4:17 AM ET IND1 Out2 Questionable NYL2 Out1 Questionable

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Liberty

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

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Algorithm Breakdown

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Schedules

Fever Schedule

Liberty Schedule

Notable Trends

View All Records

Liberty (Home)

Fever (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

7:00 p.m.
Indiana Fever @ New York Liberty