MLB Game Matchups & Analysis

1:35 p.m.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

Blue Jays: 65-68 (48.9%) | Dylan Cease (R): 15-9 (62.5%) | Market Rating: -2.5% (+111)

Yankees: 76-56 (57.6%) | Ryan Weathers (L): 13-11 (54.2%) | Market Rating: +2.9% (-112)

Line: -106

Total: 6.5

Open: -119

Open: 7

Injury Report Aug 22, 3:41 PM ET TOR13 Out1 Questionable NYY7 Out

TOR

Player	PA/G · G	Status	Reason
Addison Barger	3.0 PA/G	Out	Barger is expected to be sidelined six months following surgery Monday to repair his right elbow UCL, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Anthony Santander	4.1 PA/G ’25	Out	Santander is still dealing with discomfort in his surgically repaired left shoulder and recently received another cortisone shot, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
Bowden Francis	14 G ’25	Out	The Blue Jays placed Francis (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
Jameson Taillon	17 G	Out	Taillon (forearm) resumed a throwing program with some flat-ground work Tuesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Joe Mantiply	17 G	Out	Mantiply (knee) began a rehab assignment with Single-A Dunedin on Wednesday, striking out one in a perfect inning.
Jonatan Clase	2.8 PA/G	Out	Clase (foot) isn't in the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Rays.
Jose Berrios	31 G ’25	Out	Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.
Josh Smith	3.3 PA/G	Out	Smith went 2-for-4 with a two-run homer during the Blue Jays' 10-5 win over the Rays on Tuesday.
Luis Urias	2.6 PA/G	Out	The Blue Jays announced Monday that Urias (quadriceps) will be shut down for the next two weeks, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Patrick Corbin	19 G	Out	Toronto transferred Corbin (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
Trey Yesavage	18 G	Out	Yesavage (knee) resumed throwing from flat ground Tuesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.2 PA/G	Out	Guerrero has cleared concussion protocol and will play a rehab game with Single-A Dunedin on Thursday, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
Yimi Garcia	22 G ’25	Out	Garcia (elbow/neck/biceps) has been diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome and is expected to miss the remainder of the 2026 season, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
Andres Gimenez	3.5 PA/G	Questionable	Gimenez (hamstring) is not in the starting lineup Friday against the Yankees.

Not in rotation (under 2.0 PA/G and fewer than 3 G pitched): Cody Ponce, Jake Bloss

NYY

Player	PA/G · G	Status	Reason
Aaron Judge	4.4 PA/G	Out	Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Judge (ribs) will begin a hitting progression this week, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
Clarke Schmidt	14 G ’25	Out	Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Sunday that Schmidt (elbow) will be preparing to return from the 60-day injured list as a reliever, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports. "That can always change as the weeks and month unfolds, just depending," Boone said, regarding Schmidt's potential role. "But that's kind of how we're looking at."
Cody Bellinger	4.2 PA/G	Out	Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday on the "Talkin' Yanks" podcast by Jomboy Media that Bellinger (hamstring) could be activated from the 10-day injured list as soon as Sunday.
Giancarlo Stanton	4.0 PA/G	Out	Manager Aaron Boone said that Stanton (calf) did some baserunning Saturday, but the Yankees remain uncertain when the five-time All-Star will be ready to begin a rehab assignment, MLB.com reports.
Kervin Castro	5 G	Out	The Yankees placed Castro on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to Monday, with right elbow neuritis.
Max Fried	15 G	Out	Fried (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Saturday, Jorge Castillo of ESPN.com reports.
Ryan McMahon	3.1 PA/G	Out	McMahon (thumb) is not in the lineup for Thursday's contest in Baltimore.

PA/G = plate appearances per game played this season (hitters). G = games pitched this season (pitchers). ’25 = last season's figure (player hasn't appeared yet this season). Players under 2.0 PA/G and fewer than 3 G pitched in both seasons are listed under “Not in rotation.”

Notes

No active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Blue Jays

D. Cease	3/4
Bullpen:	1/3
Team Batting:	2/3
Matchup:	+3 Est. fair odds: -142 to -162 Implied win prob: 58.68% to 61.83%

Yankees

R. Weathers	1/4
Bullpen:	1/3
Team Batting:	1/3
Matchup:	-3 Est. fair odds: +142 to +162 Implied win prob: 38.17% to 41.32%

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Records

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Dylan Cease Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
8/16	[ 3 ]	[ 4 ]	-123	6.5	6.33	10	3	2	0	2	2	Ryan Weathers (L)
8/11	[ 5 ]	[ 3 ]	-135	7	5	7	4	5	2	3	3	Patrick Sandoval (L)
8/6	[ 3 ]	[ 2 ]	-112	7.5	7	10	1	2	0	0	0	David Peterson (L)
7/31	[ 3 ]	[ 1 ]	-191	7.5	6	7	3	3	0	1	1	Kyle Leahy (R)
7/25	[ 0 ]	[ 6 ]	-107	7	9	12	3	1	0	0	0	Sonny Gray (R)
Averages:					6.67	9.2	2.8	2.6	0.4	1.2	1.2

Ryan Weathers Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
8/16	[ 3 ]	[ 4 ]	+109	6.5	7.33	4	1	6	0	1	1	Dylan Cease (R)
8/11	[ 4 ]	[ 1 ]	-132	8	5.67	4	3	2	1	1	1	Bryan Woo (R)
8/4	[ 2 ]	[ 0 ]	-206	8	6	6	1	4	0	0	0	Hunter Dobbins (R)
7/30	[ 2 ]	[ 1 ]	-104	7.5	7	4	3	3	0	0	0	Sean Burke (R)
7/25	[ 1 ]	[ 3 ]	-122	9	5.67	7	1	6	0	1	1	Tim Mayza (L)
Averages:					6.33	5	1.8	4.2	0.2	0.6	0.6

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

TOR Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	8/19	8/20	8/21	App	IP	K	BB	H	ER
Spencer Arrighetti	·	·	3.1	1	3.1	4	2	3	3
Braydon Fisher	1.0	·	1.0	2	2.0	3	0	1	0
Brendon Little	0.2	·	1.0	2	1.2	3	0	2	0
Paul Sewald	0.1	·	1.0	2	1.1	2	0	0	0
Louie Varland	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	1	1	1	0
Mason Fluharty	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	1	0	0	0
Simeon Woods Richardson	·	·	1.0	1	1.0	3	1	0	0
Spencer Miles	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Rogers	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	0	0	1	0
Team Totals (9 arms used):				12	12.4	17	4	8	3

NYY Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	8/19	8/20	8/21	App	IP	K	BB	H	ER
Ryan Yarbrough	·	3.0	·	1	3.0	4	0	0	0
Brent Headrick	1.0	·	1.0	2	2.0	3	0	1	0
David Bednar	1.0	·	1.0	2	2.0	2	0	1	0
Paul Blackburn	1.0	·	1.0	2	2.0	2	1	2	0
Tim Hill	1.1	·	·	1	1.1	1	0	0	0
Fernando Cruz	0.2	·	·	1	0.2	2	0	2	1
Team Totals (6 arms used):				9	10.3	14	1	6	1

Schedules

Blue Jays Schedule

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
08/25/26	2026	Blue Jays	-	home	Royals	-	-	-
08/23/26	2026	Blue Jays Jose Soriano (R)	-	away	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	-	-	-
08/22/26	2026	Blue Jays Dylan Cease (R)	-	away	Yankees Ryan Weathers (L)	-	-107	6.5
08/21/26	2026	Blue Jays Mason Fluharty (L)	1	away	Yankees Cam Schlittler (R)	3	+172	7.0
08/20/26	2026	Blue Jays Shane Bieber (R)	5	away	Rays Ian Seymour (L)	1	+145	7.0
08/19/26	2026	Blue Jays Max Scherzer (R)	6	away	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	7	+177	7.5
08/18/26	2026	Blue Jays Jose Soriano (R)	10	away	Rays Nick Martinez (R)	5	+118	7.5
08/16/26	2026	Blue Jays Dylan Cease (R)	3	home	Yankees Ryan Weathers (L)	4	-123	6.5
08/15/26	2026	Blue Jays Braydon Fisher (R)	4	home	Yankees Cam Schlittler (R)	1	+166	7.5
08/14/26	2026	Blue Jays Shane Bieber (R)	3	home	Yankees Gerrit Cole (R)	1	+132	8.0
08/13/26	2026	Blue Jays Max Scherzer (R)	0	home	Red Sox Payton Tolle (L)	7	+125	7.5
08/12/26	2026	Blue Jays Jose Soriano (R)	6	home	Red Sox Ranger Suarez (L)	4	+117	7.0
08/11/26	2026	Blue Jays Dylan Cease (R)	5	home	Red Sox Patrick Sandoval (L)	3	-135	7.0
Away Games Avg (4 games)			5.5	-	-	4.0	+153	7.3
All Games Avg (10 games)			4.3	-	-	3.6	+89	7.3

Yankees Schedule

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
08/25/26	2026	Yankees	-	home	Astros	-	-	-
08/23/26	2026	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	-	home	Blue Jays Jose Soriano (R)	-	-	-
08/22/26	2026	Yankees Ryan Weathers (L)	-	home	Blue Jays Dylan Cease (R)	-	-106	6.5
08/21/26	2026	Yankees Cam Schlittler (R)	3	home	Blue Jays Mason Fluharty (L)	1	-195	7.0
08/20/26	2026	Yankees Gerrit Cole (R)	6	away	Orioles Kyle Bradish (R)	1	-107	7.5
08/19/26	2026	Yankees Will Warren (R)	5	away	Orioles Chris Bassitt (R)	3	-108	9.0
08/18/26	2026	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	3	away	Orioles Shane Baz (R)	1	-111	8.5
08/16/26	2026	Yankees Ryan Weathers (L)	4	away	Blue Jays Dylan Cease (R)	3	+109	6.5
08/15/26	2026	Yankees Cam Schlittler (R)	1	away	Blue Jays Braydon Fisher (R)	4	-188	7.5
08/14/26	2026	Yankees Gerrit Cole (R)	1	away	Blue Jays Shane Bieber (R)	3	-149	8.0
08/13/26	2026	Yankees Max Fried (L)	0	home	Mariners Logan Gilbert (R)	1	-160	7.5
08/12/26	2026	Yankees Will Warren (R)	10	home	Mariners Bryce Miller (R)	5	-136	8.5
08/11/26	2026	Yankees Ryan Weathers (L)	4	home	Mariners Bryan Woo (R)	1	-132	8.0
Home Games Avg (4 games)			4.3	-	-	2.0	-156	7.8
All Games Avg (10 games)			3.7	-	-	2.3	-118	7.8

Notable Trends

The Yankees are 22.2% (2-7) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

View All Records

Yankees (Home)

The Yankees are 57.6% (76-56) on the moneyline

The Yankees are 57.4% (31-23) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Yankees are 41.9% (52-72-4) to the over/under

The Yankees are 46.2% (24-28-2) to the over/under as a home fav

The Yankees are 61.5% (16-10) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Yankees are 55.6% (5-4) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Yankees are 30.8% (8-18) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Yankees are 22.2% (2-7) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

Blue Jays (Away)

The Blue Jays are 48.9% (65-68) on the moneyline

The Blue Jays are 48.8% (20-21) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Blue Jays are 50.4% (63-62-5) to the over/under

The Blue Jays are 53.8% (21-18-2) to the over/under as an away dog

The Blue Jays are 60.7% (17-11) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Blue Jays are 50% (7-7) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Blue Jays are 42.9% (12-16) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Blue Jays are 64.3% (9-5) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7)

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/21/26	2026	Yankees Cam Schlittler (R)	3	Home	Blue Jays Mason Fluharty (L)	1	-195	7.0	-2	4
08/16/26	2026	Yankees Ryan Weathers (L)	4	Away	Blue Jays Dylan Cease (R)	3	+123	6.5	-1	7
08/15/26	2026	Yankees Cam Schlittler (R)	1	Away	Blue Jays Braydon Fisher (R)	4	-166	7.5	+3	5
08/14/26	2026	Yankees Gerrit Cole (R)	1	Away	Blue Jays Shane Bieber (R)	3	-132	8.0	+2	4
06/14/26	2026	Yankees Will Warren (R)	8	Away	Blue Jays Patrick Corbin (L)	3	-110	8.5	-5	11
06/13/26	2026	Yankees Cam Schlittler (R)	3	Away	Blue Jays Kevin Gausman (R)	1	+101	7.5	-2	4
06/12/26	2026	Yankees Ryan Weathers (L)	5	Away	Blue Jays Trey Yesavage (R)	8	+120	8.0	+3	13
Yankees as Home (1 games)			3.0	-	-	1.0	-195.0	7.0	-2.0	4.0
All Games Avg (7 games)			3.6	-	-	3.3	-37.0	7.6	-0.3	6.9