MLB Game Matchups & Analysis

6:00 p.m.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves

Dodgers: 101-63 (61.6%) | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R): 18-10 (64.3%) | Market Rating: +13.1% (-171)

Braves: 97-70 (58.1%) | Chris Sale (L): 18-10 (64.3%) | Market Rating: +2.2% (-109)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Dodgers

-109

-1.5 (+166)

o3.5 (+113)

6.5

Braves

-107

+1.5 (-197)

o2.5 (-151)

Open

Dodgers

-109

-1.5 (+166)

o3.5 (+116)

6.5

Braves

-108

+1.5 (-199)

o2.5 (-147)

Injury Report as of Oct 6, 1:41 PM ET LAD3 Out ATL5 Out1 Questionable

LAD

Player	PA/G · G	Status	Reason
Ben Casparius	5 G	Out	Casparius (shoulder) experienced arm fatigue while on a minor-league rehab assignment and has been shut down from throwing, MLB.com reports.
Blake Treinen	35 G	Out	President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Saturday that Treinen (shoulder) hasn't been ruled out for a return in the postseason, Jon Paul Hoornstra of Newsweek.com reports.
Will Klein	36 G	Out	Klein (elbow) threw live batting practice Tuesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.

Not in rotation (60-day IL / season-ending, or under 2.0 PA/G and fewer than 3 G pitched): Brusdar Graterol, Eric Lauer, Gavin Stone, Jake Cousins

ATL

Player	PA/G · G	Status	Reason
Bryce Elder	26 G	Out	Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Elder (knee) will not be available for the NLDS against the Dodgers, Aiden Stepansky of MLB.com reports.
Jurickson Profar	4.6 PA/G ’25	Out	Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Martin Perez	30 G	Out	Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Perez (back) will not be available for the NLDS against the Dodgers, Aiden Stepansky of MLB.com reports.
Reynaldo Lopez	25 G	Out	Lopez (4-5) took the loss in Monday's 7-3 loss against the Cubs after allowing five runs on six hits and two walks with two strikeouts over three innings. After the game, manager Walt Weiss stated that Lopez may be placed on the injured list due to a shoulder injury, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
Spencer Strider	8 G	Out	Strider (elbow) is not expected to return to Atlanta's active roster before the end of this season, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Tyler Mahle	27 G	Questionable	Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said after Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Phillies on Wednesday that Mahle suffered an abdominal injury while warming up and nearly didn't start as scheduled, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports. The right-hander didn't factor in the decision, giving up one run on six hits with six strikeouts and one walk across seven innings.

Not in rotation (60-day IL / season-ending, or under 2.0 PA/G and fewer than 3 G pitched): Hurston Waldrep, Joe Jimenez, Joey Wentz, Spencer Schwellenbach

PA/G = plate appearances per game played this season (hitters). G = games pitched this season (pitchers). ’25 = last season's figure (player hasn't appeared yet this season). Players under 2.0 PA/G and fewer than 3 G pitched in both seasons, and long-term absences (60-day IL, season-ending, surgery), are listed under “Not in rotation.”

Notes

Dodgers

Baller System(s)

Playoff-specific: Fade ML and RL off a loss as a favorite where the total went under

Playoff-specific: Play under on road team and previous game when under at home

Braves

Nothing active

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Dodgers

Y. Yamamoto	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Braves

C. Sale	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

Loading regression analysis...

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

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Records

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
9/23	LAD [ 1 ]	SDP [ 5 ]	-225	8	6	4	1	5	1	2	4	Robbie Ray (L)
9/15	CIN [ 0 ]	LAD [ 4 ]	-244	8.5	7	7	2	1	0	0	0	Rhett Lowder (R)
9/9	LAD [ 14 ]	CIN [ 1 ]	-288	8	7	10	1	3	1	1	1	Rhett Lowder (R)
9/2	LAD [ 6 ]	STL [ 8 ]	-291	8	7	8	2	5	2	4	4	Brycen Mautz (L)
8/27	ATL [ 1 ]	LAD [ 0 ]	+103	6.5	6.33	8	1	4	1	1	1	Chris Sale (L)
Averages:					6.67	7.4	1.4	3.6	1	1.6	2

Chris Sale Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
9/29	ATL [ 5 ]	PHI [ 3 ]	-181	6.5	6.33	9	1	4	0	3	3	Jesus Luzardo (L)
9/23	ATL [ 3 ]	CIN [ 2 ]	-267	7	5.67	10	0	4	1	1	1	Andrew Abbott (L)
9/11	ATL [ 6 ]	PHI [ 5 ]	-185	7	7	6	2	3	0	3	3	Aaron Nola (R)
9/4	PHI [ 2 ]	ATL [ 5 ]	-101	7	6	7	1	6	1	2	2	Cristopher Sanchez (L)
8/27	ATL [ 1 ]	LAD [ 0 ]	-117	6.5	9	11	0	5	0	0	0	Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)
Averages:					6.8	8.6	0.8	4.4	0.4	1.8	1.8

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

LAD Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	10/3	10/4	10/5	App	IP	K	BB	H	ER
Roki Sasaki	·	2.0	·	1	2.0	1	2	0	0
Brock Stewart ⚠	1.0	0.1	·	2	1.1	1	0	0	0
Alex Vesia	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	1	0	0	0
Edgardo Henriquez	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	2	0	2	1
Edwin Diaz	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	2	0	0	0
Evan Phillips ⚠	0.1	0.1	·	2	0.2	0	1	0	0
Kris Bubic	·	0.2	·	1	0.2	0	1	1	1
Tanner Scott	0.2	·	·	1	0.2	0	0	2	2
Team Totals (8 arms used):				10	8.1	7	4	5	4

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

ATL Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	10/3	10/4	10/5	App	IP	K	BB	H	ER
Didier Fuentes	·	3.2	·	1	3.2	3	0	1	1
AJ Smith-Shawver	2.2	·	·	1	2.2	2	2	3	3
Brent Suter	2.0	·	·	1	2.0	3	0	1	0
Robert Suarez	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	1	0	0	0
Dylan Lee	·	0.2	·	1	0.2	1	1	1	0
Grant Holmes	·	0.2	·	1	0.2	0	1	2	1
Raisel Iglesias	·	0.1	·	1	0.1	0	0	0	0
Victor Mederos	0.1	·	·	1	0.1	0	1	2	2
Team Totals (8 arms used):				8	11.1	10	5	10	7

Schedules

Dodgers Schedule

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
10/09/26	2026	Dodgers	-	home	Braves	-	-	-
10/07/26	2026	Dodgers TBD	-	away	Braves TBD	-	-	-
10/06/26	2026	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	-	away	Braves Chris Sale (L)	-	-109	6.5
10/04/26	2026	Dodgers Blake Snell (L)	2	home	Braves Ray Kerr (L)	3	-232	8.0
10/03/26	2026	Dodgers Tarik Skubal (L)	5	home	Braves Dylan Dodd (L)	3	-219	8.5
09/27/26	2026	Dodgers Jack Dreyer (L)	5	away	Giants Carson Seymour (R)	1	-244	8.5
09/26/26	2026	Dodgers Blake Snell (L)	4	away	Giants Matt Wilkinson (L)	3	-284	7.0
09/25/26	2026	Dodgers Tarik Skubal (L)	2	away	Giants Yunior Marte (R)	0	-319	7.5
09/24/26	2026	Dodgers Tyler Glasnow (R)	2	home	Padres Nick Pivetta (R)	4	-175	7.5
09/23/26	2026	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	1	home	Padres Robbie Ray (L)	5	-225	8.0
09/22/26	2026	Dodgers Brock Stewart (R)	7	home	Padres Michael King (R)	0	-131	8.5
09/20/26	2026	Dodgers Jack Dreyer (L)	3	home	Giants Matt Wilkinson (L)	1	-276	8.5
09/19/26	2026	Dodgers Tarik Skubal (L)	10	home	Giants Yunior Marte (R)	4	-419	7.5
Away Games Avg (3 games)			3.7	-	-	1.3	-280	7.7
All Games Avg (10 games)			4.1	-	-	2.4	-237	8.0

Braves Schedule

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
10/09/26	2026	Braves	-	away	Dodgers	-	-	-
10/07/26	2026	Braves TBD	-	home	Dodgers TBD	-	-	-
10/06/26	2026	Braves Chris Sale (L)	-	home	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	-	-107	6.5
10/04/26	2026	Braves Ray Kerr (L)	3	away	Dodgers Blake Snell (L)	2	+196	8.0
10/03/26	2026	Braves Dylan Dodd (L)	3	away	Dodgers Tarik Skubal (L)	5	+185	8.5
10/01/26	2026	Braves Ray Kerr (L)	6	home	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	2	-112	7.5
09/30/26	2026	Braves Tyler Mahle (R)	3	home	Phillies Cristopher Sanchez (L)	4	-102	7.0
09/29/26	2026	Braves Chris Sale (L)	5	home	Phillies Jesus Luzardo (L)	3	-181	6.5
09/27/26	2026	Braves JR Ritchie (R)	3	away	Marlins Janson Junk (R)	5	+106	8.0
09/26/26	2026	Braves Brent Suter (L)	8	away	Marlins Jack Ralston (R)	3	-117	8.5
09/25/26	2026	Braves Ray Kerr (L)	0	away	Marlins Eury Perez (R)	3	-115	8.0
09/24/26	2026	Braves Tyler Mahle (R)	6	home	Reds Brady Singer (R)	7	-229	8.0
09/23/26	2026	Braves Chris Sale (L)	3	home	Reds Andrew Abbott (L)	2	-267	7.0
Home Games Avg (5 games)			4.6	-	-	3.6	-163	7.2
All Games Avg (10 games)			4.0	-	-	3.6	-115	7.7

Notable Trends

The Braves are 75% (6-2) on the moneyline as a home dog

The Dodgers are 72.7% (16-6) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Dodgers are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away fav

The Dodgers are 28.6% (2-5-3) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away fav

View All Records

Braves (Home)

The Braves are 58.1% (97-70) on the moneyline

The Braves are 75% (6-2) on the moneyline as a home dog

The Braves are 48.4% (76-81-10) to the over/under

The Braves are 42.9% (3-4-1) to the over/under as a home dog

The Braves are 52% (13-12) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Braves are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home dog

The Braves are 59.1% (13-9-3) (L30 days) to the over/under

Dodgers (Away)

The Dodgers are 62% (101-62) on the moneyline

The Dodgers are 62.7% (47-28) on the moneyline as an away fav

The Dodgers are 44.9% (71-87-5) to the over/under

The Dodgers are 45.1% (32-39-4) to the over/under as an away fav

The Dodgers are 72.7% (16-6) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Dodgers are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away fav

The Dodgers are 36.8% (7-12-3) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Dodgers are 28.6% (2-5-3) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 7)

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/04/26	2026	Braves Ray Kerr (L)	3	Away	Dodgers Blake Snell (L)	2	+196	8.0	-1	5
10/03/26	2026	Braves Dylan Dodd (L)	3	Away	Dodgers Tarik Skubal (L)	5	+185	8.5	+2	8
08/27/26	2026	Braves Chris Sale (L)	1	Home	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	0	-117	6.5	-1	1
08/26/26	2026	Braves AJ Smith-Shawver (R)	6	Home	Dodgers Roki Sasaki (R)	5	+108	8.5	-1	11
08/25/26	2026	Braves Bryce Elder (R)	4	Home	Dodgers Tyler Glasnow (R)	3	+137	8.5	-1	7
05/10/26	2026	Braves Bryce Elder (R)	7	Away	Dodgers Justin Wrobleski (L)	2	+118	9.5	-5	9
05/09/26	2026	Braves Spencer Strider (R)	7	Away	Dodgers Blake Snell (L)	2	+150	8.5	-5	9
Braves as Home (3 games)			3.7	-	-	2.7	+108	7.8	-1.0	6.3
All Games Avg (7 games)			4.4	-	-	2.7	+134	8.3	-1.7	7.1

MLB Game Matchups & Analysis

6:00 p.m. Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Los Angeles Dodgers", home_team: "Atlanta Braves", game_date: "2026-10-06" };

Injury Report as of Oct 6, 1:41 PM ET LAD3 Out ATL5 Out1 Questionable

Notes

Dodgers

Baller System(s)

Braves

Dodgers

Braves

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Schedules

Dodgers Schedule

Braves Schedule

Notable Trends

View All Records

Braves (Home)

Dodgers (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7)

6:00 p.m.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves