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NFL Market Ratings
How the market rates every team, derived from closing market lines rather than actual results.
Spread ratings are fit from each team's closing point-spread lines (or, for MLB/NHL, closing moneylines — their spread/puck line is fixed and carries no signal) -- a single power number showing how much better or worse than an average team the market prices them, plus a team-specific home-court/field/ice advantage.
Total ratings are fit the same way but from closing over/under lines instead -- how many points/runs/goals this team's presence adds to (or subtracts from) the game total, combining offense, pace, and defense into one number rather than splitting them apart. They get a home-park effect too, but a relative one: how much more or less than an AVERAGE park this team's home venue adds to the total (not an absolute boost over zero, which isn't reliably separable from the league's normal scoring level without real neutral-site games to compare against). Validated against known park factors -- Coors Field's altitude-driven run inflation shows up as the clear #1 outlier in MLB.
The two charts under the table set the closing lines against what happened: the average closing total against the points actually scored, and the average closing spread against the actual margin (MLB: the moneyline's win probability against the share of games won). They cover every team until one is picked, in the table or in the Team menu.
3 games
Home Field Advantage:—
Rank
Team
Rating
Sched
Games
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Rating Over Time
Closing Lines vs. Actual Results
Totals: Line vs. Actual
Spread: Line vs. Actual Margin
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