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Updated: 11/23/25 4:13 p.m.

1:00 p.m.
Miami Heat @ Philadelphia Seventysixers

Heat: 10-6 (62.5%)

Seventysixers: 9-6 (60.0%)

Line: -1.0

Total: 241.0

Open: -1.0

Open: 238.5

Notes

Heat

Situational Factor(s)

1st game of a back-to-back

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller System(s)

Fade team off OT game

Seventysixers

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Coming off an Overtime game

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Seventysixers

53.72% probability

Total Recommendation

No Play

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Lean Heat	Lean Heat	Lean Heat
Rating Differentials	Lean Heat	Lean Heat	Lean Heat
Defensive Differentials	Lean Heat	Lean Heat	Lean Heat
RMSE High Thresshold	Heat (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Lean Seventysixers	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Lean Heat	Lean Heat	Lean Heat
RMSE Balanced	Lean Seventysixers	Seventysixers	Seventysixers (2x)
Linear Regression Balanced	Seventysixers (2x)	-	-
Cover Summary	Seventysixers	Seventysixers	Seventysixers
Pace Focused	Lean Under	Lean Under	Lean Under
Total Summary	No Bet	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Seventysixers \| No Total Edge

Notable Trends

The Seventysixers are 71.4% (10-4-1) against the spread

The Seventysixers are 83.3% (5-1) to the over/under as a fav

The Seventysixers are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Heat are 73.3% (11-4-1) against the spread

The Heat are 70% (7-3-1) against the spread as a dog

View All Records

Seventysixers (Home)

The Seventysixers are 71.4% (10-4-1) against the spread

The Seventysixers are 62.5% (5-3) against the spread at home

The Seventysixers are 66.7% (4-2) against the spread as a fav

The Seventysixers are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread as a home fav

The Seventysixers are 60% (9-6) to the over/under

The Seventysixers are 50% (4-4) to the over/under at home

The Seventysixers are 83.3% (5-1) to the over/under as a fav

The Seventysixers are 66.7% (2-1) to the over/under as a home fav

The Seventysixers are 69.2% (9-4-1) (L14) against the spread

The Seventysixers are 62.5% (5-3) (L14) against the spread at home

The Seventysixers are 66.7% (4-2) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Seventysixers are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Seventysixers are 57.1% (8-6) (L14) to the over/under

The Seventysixers are 50% (4-4) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Seventysixers are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Seventysixers are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Heat (Away)

The Heat are 73.3% (11-4-1) against the spread

The Heat are 57.1% (4-3-1) against the spread away

The Heat are 70% (7-3-1) against the spread as a dog

The Heat are 57.1% (4-3-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Heat are 56.3% (9-7) to the over/under

The Heat are 62.5% (5-3) to the over/under away

The Heat are 63.6% (7-4) to the over/under as a dog

The Heat are 62.5% (5-3) to the over/under as an away dog

The Heat are 69.2% (9-4-1) (L14) against the spread

The Heat are 40% (2-3-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Heat are 62.5% (5-3-1) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Heat are 40% (2-3-1) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Heat are 50% (7-7) (L14) to the over/under

The Heat are 50% (3-3) (L14) to the over/under away

The Heat are 55.6% (5-4) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Heat are 50% (3-3) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
04/07/25	2024	Seventysixers	105	Away	Heat	117	+12.0	216.5	+12	222
03/29/25	2024	Seventysixers	95	Home	Heat	118	+8.0	215.0	+23	213
02/05/25	2024	Seventysixers	101	Home	Heat	108	-2.0	220.5	+7	209
11/18/24	2024	Seventysixers	89	Away	Heat	106	+2.5	212.0	+17	195
04/17/24	2023	Seventysixers	105	Home	Heat	104	-6.0	208.5	-1	209
04/04/24	2023	Seventysixers	109	Away	Heat	105	+3.0	210.0	-4	214
03/18/24	2023	Seventysixers	98	Home	Heat	91	-2.0	209.0	-7	189
02/14/24	2023	Seventysixers	104	Home	Heat	109	-4.5	223.5	+5	213
12/25/23	2023	Seventysixers	113	Away	Heat	119	+2.0	227.0	+6	232
Seventysixers as Home (5 games)			100.6	-	-	106.0	-1.3	215.3	+5.4	206.6
All Games Avg (9 games)			102.1	-	-	108.6	+1.4	215.8	+6.4	210.7

Schedules

Heat Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/26/25	2025	Heat	-	home	Bucks	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Heat	-	home	Mavericks	-	-	-	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Heat	-	away	Seventysixers	-	+1.0	241.0	-	-
11/21/25	2025	Heat	143	away	Bulls	107	+2.5	250.5	-36	250
11/19/25	2025	Heat	110	home	Warriors	96	-10.5	234.5	-14	206
11/17/25	2025	Heat	115	home	Knicks	113	-1.5	244.5	-2	228
11/14/25	2025	Heat	132	away	Knicks	140	+6.5	240.5	+8	272
11/12/25	2025	Heat	116	home	Cavaliers	130	-4.5	239.5	+14	246
11/10/25	2025	Heat	140	home	Cavaliers	138	+7.5	248.5	-2	278
11/08/25	2025	Heat	136	home	Trailblazers	131	+4.0	242.0	-5	267
11/07/25	2025	Heat	126	home	Hornets	108	-7.5	235.5	-18	234
11/05/25	2025	Heat	112	away	Nuggets	122	+9.0	242.0	+10	234
11/03/25	2025	Heat	120	away	Clippers	119	+7.5	227.5	-1	239
Away Games Avg (4 games)			126.8	-	-	122.0	+6.4	240.1	-4.8	248.8
All Games Avg (10 games)			125.0	-	-	120.4	+1.3	240.5	-4.6	245.4

Seventysixers Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Seventysixers	-	away	Nets	-	-	-	-	-
11/25/25	2025	Seventysixers	-	home	Magic	-	+1.5	217.5	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Seventysixers	-	home	Heat	-	-1.0	241.0	-	-
11/20/25	2025	Seventysixers	123	away	Bucks	114	-2.5	223.5	-9	237
11/19/25	2025	Seventysixers	112	home	Raptors	121	+2.5	232.5	+9	233
11/17/25	2025	Seventysixers	110	home	Clippers	108	-4.5	222.5	-2	218
11/14/25	2025	Seventysixers	105	away	Pistons	114	+1.0	229.5	+9	219
11/11/25	2025	Seventysixers	102	home	Celtics	100	+1.5	230.5	-2	202
11/09/25	2025	Seventysixers	108	home	Pistons	111	+4.5	234.5	+3	219
11/08/25	2025	Seventysixers	130	home	Raptors	120	-5.0	237.0	-10	250
11/05/25	2025	Seventysixers	121	away	Cavaliers	132	+12.0	235.0	+11	253
11/04/25	2025	Seventysixers	111	away	Bulls	113	+2.0	240.0	+2	224
11/02/25	2025	Seventysixers	129	away	Nets	105	-4.5	232.5	-24	234
Home Games Avg (5 games)			112.4	-	-	112.0	-0.2	231.4	-0.4	224.4
All Games Avg (10 games)			115.1	-	-	113.8	+0.7	231.8	-1.3	228.9

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

6:00 p.m.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Clippers: 5-11 (31.3%)

Cavaliers: 11-6 (64.7%)

Line: -7.5

Total: 229.5

Open: -8.0

Open: 229.5

Notes

Clippers

Situational Factor(s)

2nd game of a back-to-back

Travel fatigue (at least 4th straight game on the road)

3rd game in 4 nights

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Cavaliers

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

1st game of a back-to-back

Baller System(s)

Fade team: Fatigue Factor + Letdown Spot

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Cavaliers

57.19% probability

Total Recommendation

Under

56.67% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Lean Cavaliers	Lean Cavaliers	Lean Cavaliers
Rating Differentials	Lean Cavaliers	Lean Cavaliers	Lean Cavaliers
Defensive Differentials	Lean Cavaliers	Lean Cavaliers	Lean Cavaliers
RMSE High Thresshold	Cavaliers (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Lean Cavaliers	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Cavaliers	Cavaliers	Cavaliers
RMSE Balanced	Cavaliers (2x)	Cavaliers (2x)	Cavaliers (2x)
Linear Regression Balanced	Cavaliers (2x)	-	-
Cover Summary	Cavaliers	Cavaliers	Cavaliers
Pace Focused	Lean Under	Under	Under
Total Summary	No Bet	Under	Under
OVERALL	Cavaliers \| Under

Notable Trends

The Cavaliers are 29.4% (5-12) against the spread

The Cavaliers are 20% (2-8) against the spread at home

The Cavaliers are 26.7% (4-11) against the spread as a fav

The Cavaliers are 22.2% (2-7) against the spread as a home fav

The Cavaliers are 30% (3-7) to the over/under at home

The Cavaliers are 22.2% (2-7) (L14) against the spread at home

The Cavaliers are 25% (2-6) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Clippers are 71.4% (5-2) to the over/under as a dog

The Clippers are 28.6% (4-10) (L14) against the spread

The Clippers are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

View All Records

Cavaliers (Home)

The Cavaliers are 29.4% (5-12) against the spread

The Cavaliers are 20% (2-8) against the spread at home

The Cavaliers are 26.7% (4-11) against the spread as a fav

The Cavaliers are 22.2% (2-7) against the spread as a home fav

The Cavaliers are 47.1% (8-9) to the over/under

The Cavaliers are 30% (3-7) to the over/under at home

The Cavaliers are 46.7% (7-8) to the over/under as a fav

The Cavaliers are 33.3% (3-6) to the over/under as a home fav

The Cavaliers are 35.7% (5-9) (L14) against the spread

The Cavaliers are 22.2% (2-7) (L14) against the spread at home

The Cavaliers are 33.3% (4-8) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Cavaliers are 25% (2-6) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Cavaliers are 42.9% (6-8) (L14) to the over/under

The Cavaliers are 33.3% (3-6) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Cavaliers are 41.7% (5-7) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Cavaliers are 37.5% (3-5) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Clippers (Away)

The Clippers are 31.3% (5-11) against the spread

The Clippers are 50% (4-4) against the spread away

The Clippers are 42.9% (3-4) against the spread as a dog

The Clippers are 60% (3-2) against the spread as an away dog

The Clippers are 62.5% (10-6) to the over/under

The Clippers are 62.5% (5-3) to the over/under away

The Clippers are 71.4% (5-2) to the over/under as a dog

The Clippers are 60% (3-2) to the over/under as an away dog

The Clippers are 28.6% (4-10) (L14) against the spread

The Clippers are 57.1% (4-3) (L14) against the spread away

The Clippers are 42.9% (3-4) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Clippers are 60% (3-2) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Clippers are 57.1% (8-6) (L14) to the over/under

The Clippers are 57.1% (4-3) (L14) to the over/under away

The Clippers are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Clippers are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
03/30/25	2024	Cavaliers	127	Home	Clippers	122	-7.0	230.5	-5	249
03/18/25	2024	Cavaliers	119	Away	Clippers	132	-2.5	230.0	+13	251
04/07/24	2023	Cavaliers	118	Away	Clippers	120	+3.5	219.0	+2	238
01/29/24	2023	Cavaliers	118	Home	Clippers	108	+2.5	225.5	-10	226
Cavaliers as Home (2 games)			122.5	-	-	115.0	-2.3	228.0	-7.5	237.5
All Games Avg (4 games)			120.5	-	-	120.5	-0.9	226.3	0.0	241.0

Schedules

Clippers Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Clippers	-	home	Grizzlies	-	-	-	-	-
11/25/25	2025	Clippers	-	away	Lakers	-	-1.5	223.5	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Clippers	-	away	Cavaliers	-	+7.5	229.5	-	-
11/22/25	2025	Clippers	131	away	Hornets	116	+1.0	228.5	-15	247
11/20/25	2025	Clippers	101	away	Magic	129	+6.5	218.5	+28	230
11/17/25	2025	Clippers	108	away	Seventysixers	110	+4.5	222.5	+2	218
11/16/25	2025	Clippers	118	away	Celtics	121	+5.5	219.5	+3	239
11/14/25	2025	Clippers	133	away	Mavericks	127	-3.0	221.0	-6	260
11/12/25	2025	Clippers	116	home	Nuggets	130	+4.5	225.0	+14	246
11/10/25	2025	Clippers	102	home	Hawks	105	-4.5	221.5	+3	207
11/08/25	2025	Clippers	103	home	Suns	114	-4.5	226.0	+11	217
11/06/25	2025	Clippers	102	away	Suns	115	+2.5	224.5	+13	217
11/04/25	2025	Clippers	107	home	Thunder	126	+8.5	219.5	+19	233
Away Games Avg (6 games)			115.5	-	-	119.7	+2.8	222.4	+4.2	235.2
All Games Avg (10 games)			112.1	-	-	119.3	+2.1	222.7	+7.2	231.4

Cavaliers Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Cavaliers	-	away	Hawks	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Cavaliers	-	away	Raptors	-	+1.5	239.0	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Cavaliers	-	home	Clippers	-	-7.5	229.5	-	-
11/21/25	2025	Cavaliers	120	home	Pacers	109	-13.5	242.0	-11	229
11/19/25	2025	Cavaliers	104	home	Rockets	114	+1.5	233.5	+10	218
11/17/25	2025	Cavaliers	118	home	Bucks	106	-5.5	234.5	-12	224
11/15/25	2025	Cavaliers	108	home	Grizzlies	100	-10.5	242.0	-8	208
11/13/25	2025	Cavaliers	113	home	Raptors	126	-7.5	238.0	+13	239
11/12/25	2025	Cavaliers	130	away	Heat	116	+4.5	239.5	-14	246
11/10/25	2025	Cavaliers	138	away	Heat	140	-7.5	248.5	+2	278
11/08/25	2025	Cavaliers	128	home	Bulls	122	-8.5	239.0	-6	250
11/07/25	2025	Cavaliers	148	away	Wizards	114	-13.5	240.5	-34	262
11/05/25	2025	Cavaliers	132	home	Seventysixers	121	-12.0	235.0	-11	253
Home Games Avg (7 games)			117.6	-	-	114.0	-8.0	237.7	-3.6	231.6
All Games Avg (10 games)			123.9	-	-	116.8	-7.3	239.3	-7.1	240.7

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

6:00 p.m.
Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics

Magic: 10-7 (58.8%)

Celtics: 8-8 (50.0%)

Line: -4.5

Total: 223.5

Open: -4.5

Open: 222.0

Notes

Magic

Situational Factor(s)

In-season revenge

2nd game of a back-to-back

3rd game in 4 nights

4th game in 6 nights

Celtics

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller System(s)

Back favorites off a loss vs. a team on a short win streak.

Fade team: Fatigue Factor + Letdown Spot

Fade team on back-to-back off win with minimal rest in recent games

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Celtics

54.58% probability

Total Recommendation

Over

58.75% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Lean Magic	Lean Magic	Lean Celtics
Rating Differentials	Lean Magic	Lean Magic	Lean Celtics
Defensive Differentials	Lean Magic	Lean Magic	Lean Magic
RMSE High Thresshold	Magic (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Lean Magic	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Lean Celtics	Lean Celtics	Lean Celtics
RMSE Balanced	Celtics (2x)	Celtics (2x)	Celtics (2x)
Linear Regression Balanced	Celtics (2x)	-	-
Cover Summary	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics
Pace Focused	Over	Over	Over
Total Summary	Over	Over	Over
OVERALL	Celtics \| Over

Notable Trends

The Celtics are 30% (3-7) to the over/under as a fav

The Celtics are 22.2% (2-7) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Magic are 71.4% (5-2) to the over/under away

The Magic are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) to the over/under away

View All Records

Celtics (Home)

The Celtics are 37.5% (6-10) against the spread

The Celtics are 37.5% (3-5) against the spread at home

The Celtics are 40% (4-6) against the spread as a fav

The Celtics are 33.3% (2-4) against the spread as a home fav

The Celtics are 37.5% (6-10) to the over/under

The Celtics are 50% (4-4) to the over/under at home

The Celtics are 30% (3-7) to the over/under as a fav

The Celtics are 50% (3-3) to the over/under as a home fav

The Celtics are 42.9% (6-8) (L14) against the spread

The Celtics are 42.9% (3-4) (L14) against the spread at home

The Celtics are 44.4% (4-5) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Celtics are 40% (2-3) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Celtics are 35.7% (5-9) (L14) to the over/under

The Celtics are 42.9% (3-4) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Celtics are 22.2% (2-7) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Celtics are 40% (2-3) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Magic (Away)

The Magic are 52.9% (9-8) against the spread

The Magic are 57.1% (4-3) against the spread away

The Magic are 100% (3-0) against the spread as a dog

The Magic are 100% (2-0) against the spread as an away dog

The Magic are 58.8% (10-7) to the over/under

The Magic are 71.4% (5-2) to the over/under away

The Magic are 100% (3-0) to the over/under as a dog

The Magic are 100% (2-0) to the over/under as an away dog

The Magic are 64.3% (9-5) (L14) against the spread

The Magic are 57.1% (4-3) (L14) against the spread away

The Magic are 100% (3-0) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Magic are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Magic are 64.3% (9-5) (L14) to the over/under

The Magic are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) to the over/under away

The Magic are 100% (3-0) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Magic are 100% (2-0) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/09/25	2025	Celtics	111	Away	Magic	107	+3.5	227.5	-4	218
11/07/25	2025	Celtics	110	Away	Magic	123	+3.5	226.5	+13	233
04/29/25	2024	Celtics	120	Home	Magic	89	-11.5	199.0	-31	209
04/27/25	2024	Celtics	107	Away	Magic	98	-8.0	199.0	-9	205
04/25/25	2024	Celtics	93	Away	Magic	95	-5.5	201.0	+2	188
04/23/25	2024	Celtics	109	Home	Magic	100	-10.0	196.5	-9	209
04/20/25	2024	Celtics	103	Home	Magic	86	-12.5	205.0	-17	189
04/09/25	2024	Celtics	76	Away	Magic	96	+8.0	206.0	+20	172
01/17/25	2024	Celtics	121	Home	Magic	94	-14.5	213.5	-27	215
12/23/24	2024	Celtics	104	Away	Magic	108	-8.5	213.5	+4	212
Celtics as Home (4 games)			113.3	-	-	92.3	-12.1	203.5	-21.0	205.5
All Games Avg (10 games)			105.4	-	-	99.6	-5.6	208.8	-5.8	205.0

Schedules

Magic Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Magic	-	away	Pistons	-	-	-	-	-
11/25/25	2025	Magic	-	away	Seventysixers	-	-1.5	217.5	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Magic	-	away	Celtics	-	+4.5	223.5	-	-
11/22/25	2025	Magic	133	home	Knicks	121	-2.0	229.0	-12	254
11/20/25	2025	Magic	129	home	Clippers	101	-6.5	218.5	-28	230
11/18/25	2025	Magic	121	home	Warriors	113	+2.5	223.5	-8	234
11/16/25	2025	Magic	113	away	Rockets	117	+7.5	223.5	+4	230
11/14/25	2025	Magic	105	home	Nets	98	-14.5	224.5	-7	203
11/12/25	2025	Magic	124	away	Knicks	107	+4.0	227.5	-17	231
11/10/25	2025	Magic	115	home	Trailblazers	112	-2.5	234.5	-3	227
11/09/25	2025	Magic	107	home	Celtics	111	-3.5	227.5	+4	218
11/07/25	2025	Magic	123	home	Celtics	110	-3.5	226.5	-13	233
11/04/25	2025	Magic	112	away	Hawks	127	-3.5	229.5	+15	239
Away Games Avg (3 games)			116.3	-	-	117.0	+2.7	226.8	+0.7	233.3
All Games Avg (10 games)			118.2	-	-	111.7	-2.2	226.5	-6.5	229.9

Celtics Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/29/25	2025	Celtics	-	away	Timberwolves	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Celtics	-	home	Pistons	-	-	-	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Celtics	-	home	Magic	-	-4.5	223.5	-	-
11/21/25	2025	Celtics	105	home	Nets	113	-13.5	221.5	+8	218
11/18/25	2025	Celtics	113	away	Nets	99	-11.5	222.5	-14	212
11/16/25	2025	Celtics	121	home	Clippers	118	-5.5	219.5	-3	239
11/12/25	2025	Celtics	131	home	Grizzlies	95	-8.5	227.5	-36	226
11/11/25	2025	Celtics	100	away	Seventysixers	102	-1.5	230.5	+2	202
11/09/25	2025	Celtics	111	away	Magic	107	+3.5	227.5	-4	218
11/07/25	2025	Celtics	110	away	Magic	123	+3.5	226.5	+13	233
11/05/25	2025	Celtics	136	home	Wizards	107	-13.0	232.5	-29	243
11/03/25	2025	Celtics	103	home	Jazz	105	-10.5	233.5	+2	208
11/01/25	2025	Celtics	101	home	Rockets	128	+4.5	226.5	+27	229
Home Games Avg (6 games)			116.2	-	-	111.0	-7.8	226.8	-5.2	227.2
All Games Avg (10 games)			113.1	-	-	109.7	-5.3	226.8	-3.4	222.8

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

6:00 p.m.
Charlotte Hornets @ Atlanta Hawks

Hornets: 4-12 (25.0%)

Hawks: 10-7 (58.8%)

Line: -7.5

Total: 228.5

Open: -7.0

Notes

Hornets

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

2nd game of a back-to-back

Baller System(s)

Fade team on back-to-back off win with minimal rest in recent games

Hawks

Situational Factor(s)

2nd game of a back-to-back

3rd game in 4 nights

4th game in 6 nights

Baller System(s)

Back divisional home favorites when both teams are unrested

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Hawks

57.01% probability

Total Recommendation

No Play

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Lean Hawks	Lean Hawks	Lean Hawks
Rating Differentials	Lean Hawks	Lean Hawks	Lean Hawks
Defensive Differentials	Lean Hawks	Lean Hawks	Lean Hawks
RMSE High Thresshold	Hawks (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Lean Hawks	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks
RMSE Balanced	Hawks (2x)	Hawks (2x)	Hawks (2x)
Linear Regression Balanced	Hawks (2x)	-	-
Cover Summary	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks
Pace Focused	Lean Under	Lean Under	Lean Under
Total Summary	No Bet	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Hawks \| No Total Edge

Notable Trends

The Hornets are 28.6% (2-5) (L14) against the spread away

View All Records

Hawks (Home)

The Hawks are 52.9% (9-8) against the spread

The Hawks are 33.3% (2-4) against the spread at home

The Hawks are 50% (4-4) against the spread as a fav

The Hawks are 0% (0-2) against the spread as a home fav

The Hawks are 52.9% (9-8) to the over/under

The Hawks are 50% (3-3) to the over/under at home

The Hawks are 62.5% (5-3) to the over/under as a fav

The Hawks are 50% (1-1) to the over/under as a home fav

The Hawks are 57.1% (8-6) (L14) against the spread

The Hawks are 50% (2-2) (L14) against the spread at home

The Hawks are 57.1% (4-3) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Hawks are 0% (0-1) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Hawks are 57.1% (8-6) (L14) to the over/under

The Hawks are 50% (2-2) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Hawks are 57.1% (4-3) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Hawks are 0% (0-1) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Hornets (Away)

The Hornets are 43.8% (7-9) against the spread

The Hornets are 37.5% (3-5) against the spread away

The Hornets are 46.2% (6-7) against the spread as a dog

The Hornets are 42.9% (3-4) against the spread as an away dog

The Hornets are 50% (8-8) to the over/under

The Hornets are 62.5% (5-3) to the over/under away

The Hornets are 38.5% (5-8) to the over/under as a dog

The Hornets are 57.1% (4-3) to the over/under as an away dog

The Hornets are 35.7% (5-9) (L14) against the spread

The Hornets are 28.6% (2-5) (L14) against the spread away

The Hornets are 41.7% (5-7) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Hornets are 33.3% (2-4) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Hornets are 42.9% (6-8) (L14) to the over/under

The Hornets are 57.1% (4-3) (L14) to the over/under away

The Hornets are 33.3% (4-8) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Hornets are 50% (3-3) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
03/18/25	2024	Hawks	134	Away	Hornets	102	-8.0	231.0	-32	236
03/12/25	2024	Hawks	123	Home	Hornets	110	-7.5	241.5	-13	233
11/30/24	2024	Hawks	107	Away	Hornets	104	-6.0	223.5	-3	211
10/25/24	2024	Hawks	125	Home	Hornets	120	-6.0	226.5	-5	245
04/10/24	2023	Hawks	114	Home	Hornets	115	-11.0	220.5	+1	229
03/23/24	2023	Hawks	132	Home	Hornets	91	-8.0	214.0	-41	223
02/14/24	2023	Hawks	99	Away	Hornets	122	-7.0	238.0	+23	221
10/25/23	2023	Hawks	110	Away	Hornets	116	-4.0	236.0	+6	226
Hawks as Home (4 games)			123.5	-	-	109.0	-8.1	225.6	-14.5	232.5
All Games Avg (8 games)			118.0	-	-	110.0	-7.2	228.9	-8.0	228.0

Schedules

Hornets Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Hornets	-	home	Bulls	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Hornets	-	home	Knicks	-	-	-	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Hornets	-	away	Hawks	-	+7.5	228.5	-	-
11/22/25	2025	Hornets	116	home	Clippers	131	-1.0	228.5	+15	247
11/19/25	2025	Hornets	118	away	Pacers	127	-1.5	238.5	+9	245
11/17/25	2025	Hornets	108	away	Raptors	110	+8.5	240.5	+2	218
11/15/25	2025	Hornets	96	home	Thunder	109	+17.0	224.0	+13	205
11/14/25	2025	Hornets	134	away	Bucks	147	+9.0	238.0	+13	281
11/12/25	2025	Hornets	111	home	Bucks	100	+2.5	228.0	-11	211
11/10/25	2025	Hornets	111	home	Lakers	121	+8.5	230.5	+10	232
11/07/25	2025	Hornets	108	away	Heat	126	+7.5	235.5	+18	234
11/04/25	2025	Hornets	112	away	Pelicans	116	+3.0	229.5	+4	228
11/02/25	2025	Hornets	126	home	Jazz	103	+1.5	233.5	-23	229
Away Games Avg (5 games)			116.0	-	-	125.2	+5.3	236.4	+9.2	241.2
All Games Avg (10 games)			114.0	-	-	119.0	+5.5	232.7	+5.0	233.0

Hawks Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Hawks	-	home	Cavaliers	-	-	-	-	-
11/25/25	2025	Hawks	-	away	Wizards	-	-	-	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Hawks	-	home	Hornets	-	-7.5	228.5	-	-
11/22/25	2025	Hawks	115	away	Pelicans	98	-10.0	231.0	-17	213
11/20/25	2025	Hawks	126	away	Spurs	135	+1.5	233.5	+9	261
11/18/25	2025	Hawks	112	home	Pistons	120	+1.5	226.5	+8	232
11/16/25	2025	Hawks	124	away	Suns	122	+1.5	226.0	-2	246
11/13/25	2025	Hawks	132	away	Jazz	122	-1.5	234.5	-10	254
11/12/25	2025	Hawks	133	away	Kings	100	-4.5	230.5	-33	233
11/10/25	2025	Hawks	105	away	Clippers	102	+4.5	221.5	-3	207
11/08/25	2025	Hawks	122	home	Lakers	102	+5.5	228.5	-20	224
11/07/25	2025	Hawks	97	home	Raptors	109	-2.5	235.5	+12	206
11/04/25	2025	Hawks	127	home	Magic	112	+3.5	229.5	-15	239
Home Games Avg (4 games)			114.5	-	-	110.8	+2.0	230.0	-3.8	225.3
All Games Avg (10 games)			119.3	-	-	112.2	-0.1	229.7	-7.1	231.5

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

6:00 p.m.
Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors

Nets: 3-12 (20.0%)

Raptors: 11-5 (68.8%)

Line: -12.0

Total: 228.5

Open: -14.0

Open: 230.0

Notes

Nets

Situational Factor(s)

In-season revenge

Double digit, in-season revenge

1st game of a back-to-back

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Raptors

Situational Factor(s)

1st game of a back-to-back

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Raptors

58.75% probability

Total Recommendation

Under

54.58% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Lean Raptors	Lean Raptors	Lean Raptors
Rating Differentials	Lean Raptors	Lean Raptors	Lean Raptors
Defensive Differentials	Lean Raptors	Lean Raptors	Lean Raptors
RMSE High Thresshold	Raptors (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Raptors (2x)	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Raptors (2x)	Raptors (2x)	Raptors (2x)
RMSE Balanced	Raptors (2x)	Raptors (2x)	Raptors (2x)
Linear Regression Balanced	Raptors (2x)	-	-
Cover Summary	Raptors	Raptors	Raptors
Pace Focused	Lean Under	Lean Under	Under
Total Summary	No Bet	No Bet	Under
OVERALL	Raptors \| Under

Notable Trends

The Raptors are 75% (6-2) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Raptors are 75% (3-1) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Raptors are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

View All Records

Raptors (Home)

The Raptors are 62.5% (10-6) against the spread

The Raptors are 50% (3-3) against the spread at home

The Raptors are 66.7% (6-3) against the spread as a fav

The Raptors are 60% (3-2) against the spread as a home fav

The Raptors are 56.3% (9-7) to the over/under

The Raptors are 50% (3-3) to the over/under at home

The Raptors are 55.6% (5-4) to the over/under as a fav

The Raptors are 40% (2-3) to the over/under as a home fav

The Raptors are 64.3% (9-5) (L14) against the spread

The Raptors are 60% (3-2) (L14) against the spread at home

The Raptors are 75% (6-2) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Raptors are 75% (3-1) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Raptors are 50% (7-7) (L14) to the over/under

The Raptors are 40% (2-3) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Raptors are 50% (4-4) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Raptors are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Nets (Away)

The Nets are 42.9% (6-8-1) against the spread

The Nets are 57.1% (4-3-1) against the spread away

The Nets are 42.9% (6-8-1) against the spread as a dog

The Nets are 57.1% (4-3-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Nets are 53.3% (8-7) to the over/under

The Nets are 50% (4-4) to the over/under away

The Nets are 53.3% (8-7) to the over/under as a dog

The Nets are 50% (4-4) to the over/under as an away dog

The Nets are 46.2% (6-7-1) (L14) against the spread

The Nets are 66.7% (4-2-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Nets are 46.2% (6-7-1) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Nets are 66.7% (4-2-1) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Nets are 50% (7-7) (L14) to the over/under

The Nets are 42.9% (3-4) (L14) to the over/under away

The Nets are 50% (7-7) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Nets are 42.9% (3-4) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/11/25	2025	Raptors	119	Away	Nets	109	-9.5	231.0	-10	228
04/06/25	2024	Raptors	120	Away	Nets	109	-2.0	216.5	-11	229
03/26/25	2024	Raptors	116	Away	Nets	86	+2.5	215.0	-30	202
01/01/25	2024	Raptors	130	Home	Nets	113	-1.0	217.0	-17	243
12/19/24	2024	Raptors	94	Home	Nets	101	-2.0	217.5	+7	195
04/10/24	2023	Raptors	102	Away	Nets	106	+10.0	222.0	+4	208
03/25/24	2023	Raptors	88	Home	Nets	96	+6.0	216.0	+8	184
02/22/24	2023	Raptors	121	Home	Nets	93	-2.0	231.5	-28	214
11/28/23	2023	Raptors	103	Away	Nets	115	+1.5	224.0	+12	218
Raptors as Home (4 games)			108.3	-	-	100.8	+0.3	220.5	-7.5	209.0
All Games Avg (9 games)			110.3	-	-	103.1	+0.4	221.2	-7.2	213.4

Schedules

Nets Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Nets	-	home	Seventysixers	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Nets	-	home	Knicks	-	+14.0	229.0	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Nets	-	away	Raptors	-	+12.0	228.5	-	-
11/21/25	2025	Nets	113	away	Celtics	105	+13.5	221.5	-8	218
11/18/25	2025	Nets	99	home	Celtics	113	+11.5	222.5	+14	212
11/16/25	2025	Nets	129	away	Wizards	106	+3.0	231.0	-23	235
11/14/25	2025	Nets	98	away	Magic	105	+14.5	224.5	+7	203
11/11/25	2025	Nets	109	home	Raptors	119	+9.5	231.0	+10	228
11/09/25	2025	Nets	98	away	Knicks	134	+15.5	226.5	+36	232
11/07/25	2025	Nets	107	home	Pistons	125	+10.5	227.5	+18	232
11/05/25	2025	Nets	112	away	Pacers	103	+6.5	232.0	-9	215
11/03/25	2025	Nets	109	home	Timberwolves	125	+10.0	226.5	+16	234
11/02/25	2025	Nets	105	home	Seventysixers	129	+4.5	232.5	+24	234
Away Games Avg (5 games)			110.0	-	-	110.6	+10.6	227.1	+0.6	220.6
All Games Avg (10 games)			107.9	-	-	116.4	+9.9	227.6	+8.5	224.3

Raptors Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/26/25	2025	Raptors	-	home	Pacers	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Raptors	-	home	Cavaliers	-	-1.5	239.0	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Raptors	-	home	Nets	-	-12.0	228.5	-	-
11/21/25	2025	Raptors	140	home	Wizards	110	-14.0	239.0	-30	250
11/19/25	2025	Raptors	121	away	Seventysixers	112	-2.5	232.5	-9	233
11/17/25	2025	Raptors	110	home	Hornets	108	-8.5	240.5	-2	218
11/15/25	2025	Raptors	129	away	Pacers	111	-6.0	237.0	-18	240
11/13/25	2025	Raptors	126	away	Cavaliers	113	+7.5	238.0	-13	239
11/11/25	2025	Raptors	119	away	Nets	109	-9.5	231.0	-10	228
11/08/25	2025	Raptors	120	away	Seventysixers	130	+5.0	237.0	+10	250
11/07/25	2025	Raptors	109	away	Hawks	97	+2.5	235.5	-12	206
11/04/25	2025	Raptors	128	home	Bucks	100	-2.5	236.5	-28	228
11/02/25	2025	Raptors	117	home	Grizzlies	104	-4.5	238.5	-13	221
Home Games Avg (4 games)			123.8	-	-	105.5	-7.4	238.6	-18.3	229.3
All Games Avg (10 games)			121.9	-	-	109.4	-3.3	236.6	-12.5	231.3

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

7:00 p.m.
Portland Trailblazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Trailblazers: 7-9 (43.8%)

Thunder: 16-1 (94.1%)

Line: -15.5

Total: 233.5

Open: -15.5

Open: 234.5

Notes

Trailblazers

Situational Factor(s)

1st game of a back-to-back

4th game in 6 nights

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller System(s)

Fade team off road win where they made many 3s with good FG%

Thunder

Situational Factor(s)

In-season revenge

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Thunder

61.88% probability

Total Recommendation

No Play

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Thunder	Thunder	Thunder
Rating Differentials	Thunder	Thunder	Thunder
Defensive Differentials	Thunder	Thunder	Thunder
RMSE High Thresshold	Thunder (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Thunder (2x)	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Thunder (2x)	Thunder (2x)	Thunder (2x)
RMSE Balanced	Thunder (2x)	Thunder (2x)	Thunder (2x)
Linear Regression Balanced	Thunder (2x)	-	-
Cover Summary	Thunder	Thunder	Thunder
Pace Focused	Lean Over	Lean Over	Lean Over
Total Summary	No Bet	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Thunder \| No Total Edge

Notable Trends

The Trailblazers are 77.8% (7-2) against the spread as a dog

The Trailblazers are 75% (12-4) to the over/under

The Trailblazers are 77.8% (7-2) to the over/under away

The Trailblazers are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Trailblazers are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) to the over/under

The Trailblazers are 77.8% (7-2) (L14) to the over/under away

View All Records

Thunder (Home)

The Thunder are 52.9% (9-8) against the spread

The Thunder are 57.1% (4-3) against the spread at home

The Thunder are 52.9% (9-8) against the spread as a fav

The Thunder are 57.1% (4-3) against the spread as a home fav

The Thunder are 52.9% (9-8) to the over/under

The Thunder are 57.1% (4-3) to the over/under at home

The Thunder are 52.9% (9-8) to the over/under as a fav

The Thunder are 57.1% (4-3) to the over/under as a home fav

The Thunder are 57.1% (8-6) (L14) against the spread

The Thunder are 66.7% (4-2) (L14) against the spread at home

The Thunder are 57.1% (8-6) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Thunder are 66.7% (4-2) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Thunder are 50% (7-7) (L14) to the over/under

The Thunder are 50% (3-3) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Thunder are 50% (7-7) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Thunder are 50% (3-3) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Trailblazers (Away)

The Trailblazers are 53.3% (8-7-1) against the spread

The Trailblazers are 37.5% (3-5-1) against the spread away

The Trailblazers are 77.8% (7-2) against the spread as a dog

The Trailblazers are 50% (2-2) against the spread as an away dog

The Trailblazers are 75% (12-4) to the over/under

The Trailblazers are 77.8% (7-2) to the over/under away

The Trailblazers are 55.6% (5-4) to the over/under as a dog

The Trailblazers are 50% (2-2) to the over/under as an away dog

The Trailblazers are 46.2% (6-7-1) (L14) against the spread

The Trailblazers are 37.5% (3-5-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Trailblazers are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Trailblazers are 50% (2-2) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Trailblazers are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) to the over/under

The Trailblazers are 77.8% (7-2) (L14) to the over/under away

The Trailblazers are 42.9% (3-4) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Trailblazers are 50% (2-2) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/05/25	2025	Thunder	119	Away	Trailblazers	121	-3.5	231.5	+2	240
03/07/25	2024	Thunder	107	Home	Trailblazers	89	-1.5	228.0	-18	196
01/26/25	2024	Thunder	118	Away	Trailblazers	108	-14.0	225.5	-10	226
11/20/24	2024	Thunder	109	Home	Trailblazers	99	-12.5	222.0	-10	208
11/01/24	2024	Thunder	137	Away	Trailblazers	114	-10.5	221.0	-23	251
03/06/24	2023	Thunder	128	Away	Trailblazers	120	-13.0	224.0	-8	248
01/23/24	2023	Thunder	111	Home	Trailblazers	109	-14.0	233.0	-2	220
01/11/24	2023	Thunder	139	Home	Trailblazers	77	-13.5	236.5	-62	216
11/19/23	2023	Thunder	134	Away	Trailblazers	91	-6.5	224.0	-43	225
Thunder as Home (4 games)			116.5	-	-	93.5	-10.4	229.9	-23.0	210.0
All Games Avg (9 games)			122.4	-	-	103.1	-9.9	227.3	-19.3	225.6

Schedules

Trailblazers Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/26/25	2025	Trailblazers	-	home	Spurs	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Trailblazers	-	away	Bucks	-	-	-	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Trailblazers	-	away	Thunder	-	+15.5	233.5	-	-
11/21/25	2025	Trailblazers	127	away	Warriors	123	+10.5	237.0	-4	250
11/19/25	2025	Trailblazers	121	home	Bulls	122	+3.5	245.5	+1	243
11/18/25	2025	Trailblazers	110	home	Suns	127	-2.5	235.5	+17	237
11/16/25	2025	Trailblazers	133	away	Mavericks	138	-3.5	236.5	+5	271
11/14/25	2025	Trailblazers	116	away	Rockets	140	+7.5	236.5	+24	256
11/12/25	2025	Trailblazers	125	away	Pelicans	117	-8.0	232.0	-8	242
11/10/25	2025	Trailblazers	112	away	Magic	115	+2.5	234.5	+3	227
11/08/25	2025	Trailblazers	131	away	Heat	136	-4.0	242.0	+5	267
11/05/25	2025	Trailblazers	121	home	Thunder	119	+3.5	231.5	-2	240
11/03/25	2025	Trailblazers	115	home	Lakers	123	-9.5	227.5	+8	238
Away Games Avg (6 games)			124.0	-	-	128.2	+0.8	236.4	+4.2	252.2
All Games Avg (10 games)			121.1	-	-	126.0	0.0	235.9	+4.9	247.1

Thunder Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Thunder	-	home	Suns	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Thunder	-	home	Timberwolves	-	-	-	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Thunder	-	home	Trailblazers	-	-15.5	233.5	-	-
11/21/25	2025	Thunder	144	away	Jazz	112	-16.5	234.5	-32	256
11/19/25	2025	Thunder	113	home	Kings	99	-18.5	232.5	-14	212
11/17/25	2025	Thunder	126	away	Pelicans	109	-18.5	222.5	-17	235
11/15/25	2025	Thunder	109	away	Hornets	96	-17.0	224.0	-13	205
11/12/25	2025	Thunder	121	home	Lakers	92	-8.0	229.5	-29	213
11/11/25	2025	Thunder	126	home	Warriors	102	-8.0	227.5	-24	228
11/09/25	2025	Thunder	114	away	Grizzlies	100	-10.5	230.5	-14	214
11/07/25	2025	Thunder	132	away	Kings	101	-11.5	234.5	-31	233
11/05/25	2025	Thunder	119	away	Trailblazers	121	-3.5	231.5	+2	240
11/04/25	2025	Thunder	126	away	Clippers	107	-8.5	219.5	-19	233
Home Games Avg (3 games)			120.0	-	-	97.7	-11.5	229.8	-22.3	217.7
All Games Avg (10 games)			123.0	-	-	103.9	-12.1	228.7	-19.1	226.9

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

8:00 p.m.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz

Lakers: 11-4 (73.3%)

Jazz: 5-10 (33.3%)

Line: +9.5

Total: 244.5

Open: +10.5

Open: 244.0

Notes

Lakers

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Jazz

Situational Factor(s)

In-season revenge

Double digit, in-season revenge

1st game of a back-to-back

Baller System(s)

Over system based on recent totals

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Lakers

56.67% probability

Total Recommendation

Under

56.67% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Lean Lakers	Lakers	Lean Lakers
Rating Differentials	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers
Defensive Differentials	Lean Lakers	Lean Lakers	Lean Lakers
RMSE High Thresshold	Lakers (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Lean Lakers	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Lean Lakers	Lean Lakers	Lean Lakers
RMSE Balanced	Lakers (2x)	Lakers (2x)	Lakers (2x)
Linear Regression Balanced	Lean Lakers	-	-
Cover Summary	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers
Pace Focused	Lean Under	Under	Under
Total Summary	No Bet	Under	Under
OVERALL	Lakers \| Under

Notable Trends

The Jazz are 75% (6-2) against the spread at home

The Jazz are 71.4% (5-2) against the spread as a home dog

The Jazz are 87.5% (7-1) to the over/under at home

The Jazz are 85.7% (6-1) to the over/under as a home dog

The Jazz are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) against the spread at home

The Jazz are 85.7% (6-1) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Jazz are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog

The Lakers are 73.3% (11-4) against the spread

The Lakers are 77.8% (7-2) against the spread away

The Lakers are 83.3% (5-1) against the spread as a fav

The Lakers are 75% (3-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Lakers are 25% (1-3) to the over/under as an away fav

The Lakers are 78.6% (11-3) (L14) against the spread

The Lakers are 77.8% (7-2) (L14) against the spread away

The Lakers are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Lakers are 75% (3-1) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Lakers are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

View All Records

Jazz (Home)

The Jazz are 53.3% (8-7) against the spread

The Jazz are 75% (6-2) against the spread at home

The Jazz are 53.8% (7-6) against the spread as a dog

The Jazz are 71.4% (5-2) against the spread as a home dog

The Jazz are 53.3% (8-7) to the over/under

The Jazz are 87.5% (7-1) to the over/under at home

The Jazz are 53.8% (7-6) to the over/under as a dog

The Jazz are 85.7% (6-1) to the over/under as a home dog

The Jazz are 50% (7-7) (L14) against the spread

The Jazz are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) against the spread at home

The Jazz are 50% (6-6) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Jazz are 66.7% (4-2) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Jazz are 50% (7-7) (L14) to the over/under

The Jazz are 85.7% (6-1) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Jazz are 50% (6-6) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Jazz are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog

Lakers (Away)

The Lakers are 73.3% (11-4) against the spread

The Lakers are 77.8% (7-2) against the spread away

The Lakers are 83.3% (5-1) against the spread as a fav

The Lakers are 75% (3-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Lakers are 66.7% (10-5) to the over/under

The Lakers are 44.4% (4-5) to the over/under away

The Lakers are 50% (3-3) to the over/under as a fav

The Lakers are 25% (1-3) to the over/under as an away fav

The Lakers are 78.6% (11-3) (L14) against the spread

The Lakers are 77.8% (7-2) (L14) against the spread away

The Lakers are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Lakers are 75% (3-1) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Lakers are 64.3% (9-5) (L14) to the over/under

The Lakers are 44.4% (4-5) (L14) to the over/under away

The Lakers are 50% (3-3) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Lakers are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/18/25	2025	Jazz	126	Away	Lakers	140	+12.5	239.5	+14	266
02/12/25	2024	Jazz	131	Home	Lakers	119	+9.0	236.0	-12	250
02/10/25	2024	Jazz	113	Away	Lakers	132	+12.0	235.0	+19	245
12/01/24	2024	Jazz	104	Home	Lakers	105	+4.5	224.5	+1	209
11/19/24	2024	Jazz	118	Away	Lakers	124	+10.5	234.0	+6	242
02/14/24	2023	Jazz	122	Home	Lakers	138	-5.5	239.5	+16	260
01/13/24	2023	Jazz	132	Home	Lakers	125	-3.0	237.5	-7	257
11/21/23	2023	Jazz	99	Away	Lakers	131	+7.5	235.5	+32	230
Jazz as Home (4 games)			122.3	-	-	121.8	+1.3	234.4	-0.5	244.0
All Games Avg (8 games)			118.1	-	-	126.8	+5.9	235.2	+8.6	244.9

Schedules

Lakers Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Lakers	-	home	Mavericks	-	-	-	-	-
11/25/25	2025	Lakers	-	home	Clippers	-	+1.5	223.5	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Lakers	-	away	Jazz	-	-9.5	244.5	-	-
11/18/25	2025	Lakers	140	home	Jazz	126	-12.5	239.5	-14	266
11/15/25	2025	Lakers	119	away	Bucks	95	+2.0	230.0	-24	214
11/14/25	2025	Lakers	118	away	Pelicans	104	-9.5	227.0	-14	222
11/12/25	2025	Lakers	92	away	Thunder	121	+8.0	229.5	+29	213
11/10/25	2025	Lakers	121	away	Hornets	111	-8.5	230.5	-10	232
11/08/25	2025	Lakers	102	away	Hawks	122	-5.5	228.5	+20	224
11/05/25	2025	Lakers	118	home	Spurs	116	+1.5	228.5	-2	234
11/03/25	2025	Lakers	123	away	Trailblazers	115	+9.5	227.5	-8	238
11/02/25	2025	Lakers	130	home	Heat	120	-5.5	232.5	-10	250
10/31/25	2025	Lakers	117	away	Grizzlies	112	-1.5	238.5	-5	229
Away Games Avg (7 games)			113.1	-	-	111.4	-0.8	230.2	-1.7	224.6
All Games Avg (10 games)			118.0	-	-	114.2	-2.2	231.2	-3.8	232.2

Jazz Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Jazz	-	home	Kings	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Jazz	-	away	Warriors	-	+14.5	240.0	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Jazz	-	home	Lakers	-	+9.5	244.5	-	-
11/21/25	2025	Jazz	112	home	Thunder	144	+16.5	234.5	+32	256
11/18/25	2025	Jazz	126	away	Lakers	140	+12.5	239.5	+14	266
11/16/25	2025	Jazz	150	home	Bulls	147	+4.5	244.5	-3	297
11/13/25	2025	Jazz	122	home	Hawks	132	+1.5	234.5	+10	254
11/11/25	2025	Jazz	152	home	Pacers	128	+2.0	234.0	-24	280
11/10/25	2025	Jazz	113	home	Timberwolves	120	+7.5	234.5	+7	233
11/07/25	2025	Jazz	97	away	Timberwolves	137	+15.5	236.5	+40	234
11/05/25	2025	Jazz	103	away	Pistons	114	+9.5	233.0	+11	217
11/03/25	2025	Jazz	105	away	Celtics	103	+10.5	233.5	-2	208
11/02/25	2025	Jazz	103	away	Hornets	126	-1.5	233.5	+23	229
Home Games Avg (5 games)			129.8	-	-	134.2	+6.4	236.4	+4.4	264.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			118.3	-	-	129.1	+7.9	235.8	+10.8	247.4

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

8:00 p.m.
San Antonio Spurs @ Phoenix Suns

Spurs: 11-4 (73.3%)

Suns: 10-6 (62.5%)

Line: -2.5

Total: 235.0

Open: 234.5

Notes

Spurs

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

In-season revenge

Double digit, in-season revenge

Baller System(s)

Fade team off a close win by small margin

Suns

Situational Factor(s)

1st game of a back-to-back

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Suns

55.63% probability

Total Recommendation

No Play

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Lean Spurs	Lean Suns	Lean Suns
Rating Differentials	Lean Spurs	Lean Suns	Lean Suns
Defensive Differentials	Lean Spurs	Lean Suns	Lean Suns
RMSE High Thresshold	Suns (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Lean Suns	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Lean Suns	Lean Suns	Lean Suns
RMSE Balanced	Suns	Suns (2x)	Suns (2x)
Linear Regression Balanced	Suns (2x)	-	-
Cover Summary	Suns	Suns	Suns
Pace Focused	Lean Over	Lean Under	Lean Over
Total Summary	No Bet	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Suns \| No Total Edge

Notable Trends

The Suns are 88.9% (8-1) against the spread at home

The Suns are 85.7% (6-1) against the spread as a fav

The Suns are 83.3% (5-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Suns are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) against the spread

The Suns are 87.5% (7-1) (L14) against the spread at home

The Suns are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Suns are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Suns are 25% (2-6) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Suns are 20% (1-4) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

The Spurs are 80% (4-1) to the over/under away

The Spurs are 25% (1-3) (L14) against the spread away

The Spurs are 100% (4-0) (L14) to the over/under away

View All Records

Suns (Home)

The Suns are 68.8% (11-5) against the spread

The Suns are 88.9% (8-1) against the spread at home

The Suns are 85.7% (6-1) against the spread as a fav

The Suns are 83.3% (5-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Suns are 50% (8-8) to the over/under

The Suns are 33.3% (3-6) to the over/under at home

The Suns are 42.9% (3-4) to the over/under as a fav

The Suns are 33.3% (2-4) to the over/under as a home fav

The Suns are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) against the spread

The Suns are 87.5% (7-1) (L14) against the spread at home

The Suns are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Suns are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Suns are 42.9% (6-8) (L14) to the over/under

The Suns are 25% (2-6) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Suns are 33.3% (2-4) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Suns are 20% (1-4) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Spurs (Away)

The Spurs are 53.8% (7-6-2) against the spread

The Spurs are 40% (2-3) against the spread away

The Spurs are 100% (2-0) against the spread as a dog

The Spurs are 100% (1-0) against the spread as an away dog

The Spurs are 53.3% (8-7) to the over/under

The Spurs are 80% (4-1) to the over/under away

The Spurs are 50% (1-1) to the over/under as a dog

The Spurs are 0% (0-1) to the over/under as an away dog

The Spurs are 50% (6-6-2) (L14) against the spread

The Spurs are 25% (1-3) (L14) against the spread away

The Spurs are 100% (1-0) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Spurs are 57.1% (8-6) (L14) to the over/under

The Spurs are 100% (4-0) (L14) to the over/under away

The Spurs are 100% (1-0) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/02/25	2025	Suns	130	Home	Spurs	118	+4.5	227.5	-12	248
04/11/25	2024	Suns	117	Home	Spurs	98	-5.5	232.5	-19	215
02/20/25	2024	Suns	109	Away	Spurs	120	-2.5	238.0	+11	229
12/03/24	2024	Suns	104	Home	Spurs	93	-7.0	229.0	-11	197
03/25/24	2023	Suns	102	Away	Spurs	104	-12.5	233.0	+2	206
03/23/24	2023	Suns	131	Away	Spurs	106	-10.0	231.5	-25	237
11/02/23	2023	Suns	121	Home	Spurs	132	-10.0	229.5	+11	253
10/31/23	2023	Suns	114	Home	Spurs	115	-7.0	225.5	+1	229
Suns as Home (5 games)			117.2	-	-	111.2	-5.0	228.8	-6.0	228.4
All Games Avg (8 games)			116.0	-	-	110.8	-6.3	230.8	-5.3	226.8

Schedules

Spurs Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Spurs	-	away	Nuggets	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Spurs	-	away	Trailblazers	-	-	-	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Spurs	-	away	Suns	-	+2.5	235.0	-	-
11/20/25	2025	Spurs	135	home	Hawks	126	-1.5	233.5	-9	261
11/18/25	2025	Spurs	111	home	Grizzlies	101	-6.5	234.5	-10	212
11/16/25	2025	Spurs	123	home	Kings	110	-6.5	242.5	-13	233
11/14/25	2025	Spurs	108	home	Warriors	109	-3.0	233.5	+1	217
11/12/25	2025	Spurs	120	home	Warriors	125	-3.5	232.5	+5	245
11/10/25	2025	Spurs	121	away	Bulls	117	-5.5	235.5	-4	238
11/08/25	2025	Spurs	126	home	Pelicans	119	-11.0	223.5	-7	245
11/07/25	2025	Spurs	121	home	Rockets	110	+3.5	224.5	-11	231
11/05/25	2025	Spurs	116	away	Lakers	118	-1.5	228.5	+2	234
11/02/25	2025	Spurs	118	away	Suns	130	-4.5	227.5	+12	248
Away Games Avg (3 games)			118.3	-	-	121.7	-3.8	230.5	+3.3	240.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			119.9	-	-	116.5	-4.0	231.6	-3.4	236.4

Suns Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/26/25	2025	Suns	-	away	Kings	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Suns	-	home	Rockets	-	+6.0	231.5	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Suns	-	home	Spurs	-	-2.5	235.0	-	-
11/21/25	2025	Suns	114	home	Timberwolves	113	+4.5	230.5	-1	227
11/18/25	2025	Suns	127	away	Trailblazers	110	+2.5	235.5	-17	237
11/16/25	2025	Suns	122	home	Hawks	124	-1.5	226.0	+2	246
11/13/25	2025	Suns	133	home	Pacers	98	-3.5	233.5	-35	231
11/12/25	2025	Suns	123	away	Mavericks	114	-2.0	227.5	-9	237
11/10/25	2025	Suns	121	home	Pelicans	98	-8.5	227.5	-23	219
11/08/25	2025	Suns	114	away	Clippers	103	+4.5	226.0	-11	217
11/06/25	2025	Suns	115	home	Clippers	102	-2.5	224.5	-13	217
11/04/25	2025	Suns	107	away	Warriors	118	+10.5	235.5	+11	225
11/02/25	2025	Suns	130	home	Spurs	118	+4.5	227.5	-12	248
Home Games Avg (6 games)			122.5	-	-	108.8	-1.2	228.3	-13.7	231.3
All Games Avg (10 games)			120.6	-	-	109.8	+0.9	229.4	-10.8	230.4

Premium Content

1:00 p.m. Miami Heat @ Philadelphia Seventysixers

Notes

Heat

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Baller System(s)

Seventysixers

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Seventysixers (Home)

Heat (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Heat Schedule

Seventysixers Schedule

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6:00 p.m. Los Angeles Clippers @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Notes

Clippers

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Cavaliers

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Cavaliers (Home)

Clippers (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

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Clippers Schedule

Cavaliers Schedule

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6:00 p.m. Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics

Notes

Magic

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Celtics

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Celtics (Home)

Magic (Away)

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Magic Schedule

Celtics Schedule

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6:00 p.m. Charlotte Hornets @ Atlanta Hawks

Notes

Hornets

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Hawks

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Hawks (Home)

Hornets (Away)

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Hornets Schedule

1:00 p.m.
Miami Heat @ Philadelphia Seventysixers

6:00 p.m.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Cleveland Cavaliers

6:00 p.m.
Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics

6:00 p.m.
Charlotte Hornets @ Atlanta Hawks

6:00 p.m.
Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors

7:00 p.m.
Portland Trailblazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder

8:00 p.m.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz

8:00 p.m.
San Antonio Spurs @ Phoenix Suns