MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 4 – 3
Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays

Angels: 6-3 (66.7%) | Kyle Hendricks (R): 1-0 (100.0%)

Rays: 4-5 (44.4%) | Shane Baz (R): 1-0 (100.0%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Angels

+141

+1.5 (-152)

o3.5 (-114)

8.5

Rays

-167

-1.5 (+127)

o4.5 (-111)

Open

Angels

+141

+1.5 (-152)

o3.5 (-114)

8.0

Rays

-166

-1.5 (+127)

o4.5 (-111)

Odds Full MLB odds board

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report LAANo report TBNo report

Notes

Angels

Baller System(s)

First game of a road, non-divisional series, on at least a two game winning streak

Rays

Situational Factor(s)

Game off giving up a walk-off win

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Angels

K. Hendricks	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Rays

S. Baz	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Angels Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/10/25 2025	Angels Jose Soriano (R)	-	@	Rays Zack Littell (R)	-	+104	8.0
04/09/25 2025	Angels Yusei Kikuchi (L)	-	@	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	-	+120	7.5
04/08/25 2025	Angels Kyle Hendricks (R)	-	@	Rays Shane Baz (R)	-	+144	8.5
04/06/25 2025	Angels Tyler Anderson (L)	6	vs.	Guardians Luis Ortiz (R)	2	-104	9.5
04/05/25 2025	Angels Jack Kochanowicz (R)	10	vs.	Guardians Tanner Bibee (R)	4	+126	8.5
04/04/25 2025	Angels Jose Soriano (R)	6	vs.	Guardians Gavin Williams (R)	8	-102	8.0
04/02/25 2025	Angels Yusei Kikuchi (L)	5	@	Cardinals Sonny Gray (R)	12	+120	8.5
04/01/25 2025	Angels Kyle Hendricks (R)	9	@	Cardinals Matthew Liberatore (L)	7 F/11	+120	8.5
03/31/25 2025	Angels Tyler Anderson (L)	5	@	Cardinals Miles Mikolas (R)	4 F/10	+132	8.0
03/30/25 2025	Angels Jack Kochanowicz (R)	3	@	White Sox Davis Martin (R)	2	-126	8.5
03/29/25 2025	Angels Jose Soriano (R)	1	@	White Sox Jonathan Cannon (R)	0	-160	8.0
03/27/25 2025	Angels Yusei Kikuchi (L)	1	@	White Sox Sean Burke (R)	8	-164	7.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/29/24 2024	Angels Jack Kochanowicz (R)	0	vs.	Rangers Nathan Eovaldi (R)	8	+126	7.5

Away Games Avg (6 games this season)		4.0	-	-	5.5	-109	8.2

All Games Avg (9 games this season)		5.1	-	-	5.2	-104	8.3

Rays Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/10/25 2025	Rays Zack Littell (R)	-	vs.	Angels Jose Soriano (R)	-	-122	8.0
04/09/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	-	vs.	Angels Yusei Kikuchi (L)	-	-142	7.5
04/08/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	-	vs.	Angels Kyle Hendricks (R)	-	-172	8.5
04/06/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	3	@	Rangers Kumar Rocker (R)	4	-112	8.0
04/05/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	4	@	Rangers Jacob deGrom (R)	6	+158	7.5
04/04/25 2025	Rays Zack Littell (R)	2	@	Rangers Tyler Mahle (R)	5	+110	8.5
04/02/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	2	vs.	Pirates Paul Skenes (R)	4	-102	7.0
04/01/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	7	vs.	Pirates Tom Harrington (R)	0	-154	8.5
03/31/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	6	vs.	Pirates Carmen Mlodzinski (R)	1	-188	8.0
03/30/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	6	vs.	Rockies Ryan Feltner (R)	4	-180	7.5
03/29/25 2025	Rays Zack Littell (R)	1	vs.	Rockies Antonio Senzatela (R)	2	-204	8.0
03/28/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	3	vs.	Rockies Kyle Freeland (L)	2	-198	8.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/29/24 2024	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	1	@	Red Sox Quinn Priester (R)	3	-108	8.0

Home Games Avg (6 games this season)		4.2	-	-	2.2	-166	7.8

All Games Avg (9 games this season)		3.8	-	-	3.1	-133	7.9

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Kyle Hendricks's mix vs. TBR bats

Kyle Hendricks's pitches			TBR hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Changeup	38.4%	79.5	23.1% 1st	34.5% 20th	.251 3rd	.321 13th	.306 4th	.495 20th	.174 22nd	35.5% 13th	5.8% 26th	86.4 15th
Sinker	38.4%	86.2	14.1% 16th	24.3% 12th	.277 17th	.316 21st	.325 28th	.482 22nd	.166 19th	43.4% 22nd	6.2% 21st	88.8 25th
4-Seam Fastball	15.0%	86.5	20.7% 13th	21.6% 5th	.271 1st	.336 18th	.329 28th	.581 26th	.245 28th	44.5% 27th	9.3% 27th	90.4 24th
Curveball	8.2%	72.2	23.6% 1st	26.8% 8th	.249 5th	.309 24th	.285 13th	.517 21st	.208 18th	37.1% 16th	6.4% 24th	88.0 13th
Whole mix, by usage			19.3% 2nd	28.0% 17th	.264 5th	.320 18th	.315 14th	.505 23rd	.184 24th	40.0% 17th	6.5% 28th	88.1 21st

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Kyle Hendricks's; every other column is TBR's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is TBR's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Shane Baz's mix vs. LAA bats

Shane Baz's pitches			LAA hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	43.9%	97.0	26.2% 30th	21.4% 3rd	.241 22nd	.337 17th	.337 23rd	.664 7th	.327 5th	45.4% 23rd	13.6% 4th	90.4 24th
Knuckle Curve	26.9%	85.0	39.2% 22nd	31.3% 11th	.173 23rd	.269 29th	.237 22nd	.451 27th	.182 17th	33.2% 28th	7.4% 17th	87.1 26th
Cutter	14.7%	90.2	25.8% 29th	28.4% 24th	.250 24th	.318 25th	.340 21st	.559 17th	.241 14th	35.6% 28th	7.9% 23rd	85.6 30th
Changeup	11.4%	89.3	32.6% 22nd	36.0% 26th	.197 28th	.312 18th	.252 29th	.523 7th	.211 7th	33.5% 16th	9.1% 3rd	86.0 18th
Slider	3.0%	86.7	36.0% 26th	33.5% 26th	.211 27th	.315 24th	.270 29th	.560 14th	.245 12th	35.3% 25th	10.9% 8th	87.2 25th
Whole mix, by usage			30.7% 30th	27.1% 10th	.218 28th	.312 29th	.299 25th	.572 15th	.260 9th	39.0% 28th	10.5% 9th	88.2 28th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Shane Baz's; every other column is LAA's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is LAA's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Kyle Hendricks Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/1	STL [ 7 ]	LAA [ 9 ]	+120	8.5	6	97	4	0	7	1	2	2	Matthew Liberatore (L)
9/28	CHC [ 3 ]	CIN [ 0 ]	-130	7	7.33	81	2	2	2	0	0	0	Rhett Lowder (R)
9/21	CHC [ 1 ]	WSN [ 5 ]	-136	8.5	5.33	91	2	1	9	0	4	4	MacKenzie Gore (L)
9/15	COL [ 2 ]	CHC [ 6 ]	-132	11.5	6	85	7	3	2	1	1	1	Cal Quantrill (R)
9/9	LAD [ 4 ]	CHC [ 10 ]	+158	9.5	4.33	90	2	4	4	0	2	2	Walker Buehler (R)
Averages:					5.8	88.8	3.4	2	4.8	0.4	1.8	1.8

Shane Baz Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/1	TBR [ 7 ]	PIT [ 0 ]	-154	8.5	6	96	10	0	7	0	0	0	Tom Harrington (R)
9/28	BOS [ 2 ]	TBR [ 7 ]	+102	8	6	86	7	1	3	1	2	2	Kutter Crawford (R)
9/22	TBR [ 4 ]	TOR [ 3 ]	-148	7.5	6	83	6	1	4	0	1	1	Ryan Burr (R)
9/17	TBR [ 8 ]	BOS [ 3 ]	-110	7.5	7	96	6	1	2	1	2	2	Nick Pivetta (R)
9/11	PHI [ 3 ]	TBR [ 2 ]	+166	7.5	5.33	78	4	1	3	1	2	2	Zack Wheeler (R)
Averages:					6.07	87.8	6.6	0.8	3.8	0.6	1.4	1.4

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

LAA Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/5	4/6	4/7	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Garrett McDaniels	2.0 (19)	·	·	1	2.0	19	2	0	1	0
Ian Anderson	2.0 (37)	·	·	1	2.0	37	1	1	2	1
Ben Joyce	·	1.1 (11)	·	1	1.1	11	1	0	0	0
Kenley Jansen	·	1.0 (8)	·	1	1.0	8	1	0	0	0
Ryan Zeferjahn	·	1.0 (16)	·	1	1.0	16	3	0	1	0
Brock Burke	·	0.2 (7)	·	1	0.2	7	0	0	1	0
Team Totals (6 arms used):				6	8.0	98	8	1	5	1

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

TBR Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/5	4/6	4/7	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Edwin Uceta ⚠	1.0 (10)	0.2 (12)	·	2	1.2	22	1	1	2	1
Manuel Rodriguez	·	1.1 (31)	·	1	1.1	31	3	0	1	0
Kevin Kelly	1.0 (16)	·	·	1	1.0	16	1	1	0	0
Mason Montgomery	1.0 (20)	·	·	1	1.0	20	3	0	2	2
Pete Fairbanks	·	1.0 (9)	·	1	1.0	9	1	0	0	0
Garrett Cleavinger	·	0.2 (21)	·	1	0.2	21	2	1	1	1
Team Totals (6 arms used):				7	6.2	119	11	3	6	4

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

Notable Trends

The Rays are 80% (8-2) to the under

The Rays are 83.3% (5-1) to the under as a home fav

The Rays are 80% (8-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Rays are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

The Angels are 70% (7-3) on the moneyline

The Angels are 75% (3-1) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Angels are 75% (3-1) to the over as an away dog

The Angels are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Angels are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Angels are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

View All Records

Rays (Home)

The Rays are 40% (4-6) on the moneyline

The Rays are 66.7% (4-2) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Rays are 80% (8-2) to the under

The Rays are 83.3% (5-1) to the under as a home fav

The Rays are 40% (4-6) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Rays are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Rays are 80% (8-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Rays are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Angels (Away)

The Angels are 70% (7-3) on the moneyline

The Angels are 75% (3-1) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Angels are 60% (6-4) to the over

The Angels are 75% (3-1) to the over as an away dog

The Angels are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Angels are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Angels are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) to the over

The Angels are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
04/18/24 2024	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	2	vs.	Angels Griffin Canning (R)	1	-142	8.5	-1	U 3 -5.5
04/17/24 2024	Rays Zack Littell (R)	4	vs.	Angels Reid Detmers (L)	5	-122	8.5	+1	O 9 +0.5
04/16/24 2024	Rays Aaron Civale (R)	7	vs.	Angels Jose Soriano (R)	6 F/13	-148	8.5	-1	O 13 +4.5
04/15/24 2024	Rays Zach Eflin (R)	3	vs.	Angels Patrick Sandoval (L)	7	-166	8.5	+4	O 10 +1.5
04/10/24 2024	Rays Zack Littell (R)	4	@	Angels Jose Soriano (R)	2	-120	9.0	-2	U 6 -3.0
04/09/24 2024	Rays Aaron Civale (R)	6	@	Angels Patrick Sandoval (L)	4	-122	8.5	-2	O 10 +1.5
04/08/24 2024	Rays Zach Eflin (R)	1	@	Angels Tyler Anderson (L)	7	-154	8.5	+6	U 8 -0.5

Rays as Home (4 games)		4.0	-	-	4.8	-143	8.5	+0.8	O 8.8 +0.3

All Games Avg (7 games)		3.9	-	-	4.6	-138	8.6	+0.7	U 8.4 -0.1

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 4 – 3 Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Los Angeles Angels", home_team: "Tampa Bay Rays", game_date: "2025-04-08" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report LAANo report TBNo report

Notes

Angels

Baller System(s)

Rays

Situational Factor(s)

Angels

Rays

Filters

Schedules

Angels Schedule Follow global filters

Rays Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Rays (Home)

Angels (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 4 – 3
Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays