MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 4 – 2
Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays

Brewers: 19-21 (47.5%) | Chad Patrick (R): 3-4 (42.9%)

Rays: 18-21 (46.2%) | Drew Rasmussen (R): 2-5 (28.6%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Brewers

+127

+1.5 (-165)

o3.5 (-138)

9.0

Rays

-150

-1.5 (+139)

o4.5 (-108)

Open

Brewers

+123

+1.5 (-165)

o3.5 (-138)

8.5

Rays

-142

-1.5 (+139)

o4.5 (-108)

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report MILNo report TBNo report

Notes

Brewers

Situational Factor(s)

Game off giving up a walk-off win

Rays

Situational Factor(s)

Game off a walk-off win

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Brewers

C. Patrick	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Rays

D. Rasmussen	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Brewers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
05/13/25 2025	Brewers Quinn Priester (R)	-	@	Guardians Logan Allen (L)	-	+106	9.0
05/12/25 2025	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	-	@	Guardians Ben Lively (R)	-	-130	8.0
05/11/25 2025	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	-	@	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	-	+120	9.0
05/10/25 2025	Brewers Tobias Myers (R)	2	@	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	3	+110	9.5
05/09/25 2025	Brewers Jose Quintana (L)	3	@	Rays Zack Littell (R)	4	-116	9.5
05/07/25 2025	Brewers Quinn Priester (R)	1	vs.	Astros Framber Valdez (L)	9	+116	7.5
05/06/25 2025	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	4	vs.	Astros Hayden Wesneski (R)	3	-122	8.0
05/05/25 2025	Brewers Tobias Myers (R)	5	vs.	Astros Ronel Blanco (R)	1	-108	8.5
05/04/25 2025	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	4	vs.	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	0	-106	7.5
05/03/25 2025	Brewers Jose Quintana (L)	2	vs.	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	6	-110	9.0
05/02/25 2025	Brewers Tyler Alexander (L)	0	vs.	Cubs Ben Brown (R)	10	+104	9.0
05/01/25 2025	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	0	@	White Sox Sean Burke (R)	8	-162	8.5
04/30/25 2025	Brewers Tobias Myers (R)	6	@	White Sox Shane Smith (R)	4	-154	7.5

Away Games Avg (4 games)		2.8	-	-	4.8	-127	8.8

All Games Avg (10 games)		2.7	-	-	4.8	-113	8.5

Rays Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
05/14/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	-	@	Blue Jays Chris Bassitt (R)	-	+122	8.0
05/13/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	-	@	Blue Jays Jose Berrios (R)	-	+108	8.0
05/11/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	-	vs.	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	-	-142	9.0
05/10/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	3	vs.	Brewers Tobias Myers (R)	2	-130	9.5
05/09/25 2025	Rays Zack Littell (R)	4	vs.	Brewers Jose Quintana (L)	3	-102	9.5
05/08/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	6	vs.	Phillies Jesus Luzardo (L)	7 F/10	+134	8.5
05/07/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	0	vs.	Phillies Cristopher Sanchez (L)	7	+114	8.5
05/06/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	4	vs.	Phillies Zack Wheeler (R)	8	+110	7.5
05/04/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	7	@	Yankees Will Warren (R)	5	+140	8.5
05/03/25 2025	Rays Zack Littell (R)	3	@	Yankees Ryan Yarbrough (L)	2	+154	9.5
05/02/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	0	@	Yankees Max Fried (L)	3	+168	8.5
05/01/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	2	vs.	Royals Seth Lugo (R)	8	-154	8.5
04/30/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	0	vs.	Royals Noah Cameron (L)	3	-184	8.5

Home Games Avg (7 games)		2.7	-	-	5.4	-112	8.6

All Games Avg (10 games)		2.9	-	-	4.8	+105	8.7

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Chad Patrick's mix vs. TBR bats

Chad Patrick's pitches			TBR hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Cutter	41.6%	88.0	20.6% 11th	26.0% 14th	.214 30th	.306 28th	.330 25th	.495 30th	.189 28th	34.3% 30th	7.5% 27th	85.9 28th
Sinker	22.8%	94.2	14.1% 16th	24.3% 12th	.277 17th	.316 21st	.325 28th	.482 22nd	.166 19th	43.4% 22nd	6.2% 21st	88.8 25th
4-Seam Fastball	21.7%	94.3	20.7% 13th	21.6% 5th	.271 1st	.336 18th	.329 28th	.581 26th	.245 28th	44.5% 27th	9.3% 27th	90.4 24th
Changeup	6.3%	88.7	23.1% 1st	34.5% 20th	.251 3rd	.321 13th	.306 4th	.495 20th	.174 22nd	35.5% 13th	5.8% 26th	86.4 15th
Slider	5.0%	84.2	26.4% 2nd	28.4% 2nd	.233 14th	.316 20th	.301 11th	.532 23rd	.216 20th	42.0% 3rd	10.0% 11th	88.6 8th
Slurve	2.6%	85.7	27.1% 7th	28.8% 14th	.335 4th	.354 5th	.349 5th	.727 4th	.373 6th	53.1% 1st	11.9% 7th	91.3 3rd
Whole mix, by usage			19.8% 8th	25.4% 11th	.247 27th	.317 27th	.326 28th	.519 27th	.201 27th	39.5% 26th	7.7% 27th	87.8 28th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Chad Patrick's; every other column is TBR's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is TBR's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Drew Rasmussen's mix vs. MIL bats

Drew Rasmussen's pitches			MIL hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	35.2%	95.8	18.4% 2nd	25.7% 25th	.265 3rd	.328 21st	.340 19th	.552 29th	.224 30th	47.0% 20th	8.5% 30th	90.8 20th
Cutter	31.4%	90.3	20.5% 10th	27.9% 23rd	.281 13th	.307 27th	.347 20th	.536 24th	.229 17th	45.6% 4th	9.6% 15th	89.8 5th
Sinker	22.9%	95.4	12.6% 8th	25.3% 16th	.270 23rd	.312 25th	.321 29th	.456 28th	.144 29th	45.3% 16th	5.6% 24th	89.0 20th
Sweeper	4.7%	84.6	28.9% 8th	32.4% 27th	.203 22nd	.280 27th	.242 28th	.451 29th	.171 29th	28.3% 26th	6.8% 24th	84.1 29th
Curveball	4.3%	80.4	25.9% 3rd	22.6% 1st	.231 14th	.337 11th	.259 24th	.513 22nd	.176 26th	39.5% 12th	5.9% 26th	88.1 11th
Changeup	1.2%	89.4	27.3% 6th	30.2% 2nd	.235 14th	.303 23rd	.296 8th	.494 21st	.191 12th	31.0% 27th	8.7% 6th	84.4 30th
Slider	0.2%	84.6	31.1% 7th	31.6% 14th	.237 11th	.317 19th	.294 14th	.513 26th	.196 26th	37.7% 18th	6.7% 29th	86.9 26th
Whole mix, by usage			18.7% 5th	26.5% 23rd	.266 10th	.316 29th	.329 26th	.518 30th	.202 29th	44.8% 11th	8.0% 28th	89.6 17th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Drew Rasmussen's; every other column is MIL's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is MIL's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Chad Patrick Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
5/6	MIL [ 4 ]	HOU [ 3 ]	-122	8	6.67	91	6	1	4	1	3	3	Hayden Wesneski (R)
5/1	CHW [ 8 ]	MIL [ 0 ]	-162	8.5	5.67	102	4	0	6	0	3	3	Sean Burke (R)
4/25	STL [ 3 ]	MIL [ 2 ]	+110	8	4.33	70	2	2	4	0	2	2	Matthew Liberatore (L)
4/19	MIL [ 1 ]	ATH [ 3 ]	-132	8.5	6	94	7	0	7	1	2	2	Luis Severino (R)
4/12	ARI [ 5 ]	MIL [ 4 ]	+150	9.5	4.33	77	3	2	5	0	0	0	Corbin Burnes (R)
Averages:					5.4	86.8	4.4	1	5.2	0.4	2	2

Drew Rasmussen Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
5/6	TBR [ 4 ]	PHI [ 8 ]	+110	7.5	4.33	86	2	2	5	2	3	3	Zack Wheeler (R)
4/30	TBR [ 0 ]	KCR [ 3 ]	-184	8.5	5	72	3	1	6	1	3	3	Noah Cameron (L)
4/24	ARI [ 4 ]	TBR [ 7 ]	+118	8.5	5	82	5	1	5	1	4	4	Corbin Burnes (R)
4/18	TBR [ 0 ]	NYY [ 1 ]	-100	8	5.67	84	7	3	3	0	1	1	Carlos Rodon (L)
4/12	TBR [ 4 ]	ATL [ 5 ]	-142	8.5	5	80	7	1	4	0	0	0	AJ Smith-Shawver (R)
Averages:					5	80.8	4.8	1.6	4.6	0.8	2.2	2.2

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

MIL Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	5/8	5/9	5/10	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Grant Anderson ⚠	·	1.0 (20)	0.2 (15)	2	1.2	35	0	2	1	1
Jared Koenig ⚠	·	0.2 (29)	1.0 (13)	2	1.2	42	3	2	2	1
Nick Mears ⚠	·	0.2 (8)	1.0 (13)	2	1.2	21	2	0	0	0
Abner Uribe	·	·	1.0 (13)	1	1.0	13	2	0	0	0
Tyler Alexander	·	·	1.0 (13)	1	1.0	13	1	1	0	0
Joel Payamps	·	0.1 (4)	·	1	0.1	4	1	0	0	0
Trevor Megill	·	·	0.0 (4)	1	0.0	4	0	0	1	0
Team Totals (7 arms used):				10	7.1	132	9	5	4	2

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

TBR Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	5/8	5/9	5/10	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Manuel Rodriguez	1.0 (12)	·	1.0 (6)	2	2.0	18	2	0	2	1
Pete Fairbanks	1.0 (28)	·	1.0 (26)	2	2.0	54	2	2	1	0
Edwin Uceta	0.2 (18)	·	1.0 (10)	2	1.2	28	0	0	4	3
Mason Montgomery ⚠	0.1 (2)	1.0 (13)	·	2	1.1	15	2	0	0	0
Cole Sulser	·	1.0 (22)	·	1	1.0	22	1	2	1	1
Eric Orze	·	1.0 (15)	·	1	1.0	15	1	0	1	0
Garrett Cleavinger	1.0 (10)	·	·	1	1.0	10	0	0	0	0
Team Totals (7 arms used):				11	10.0	162	8	4	9	5

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

Notable Trends

The Brewers are 26.7% (4-11) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Brewers are 72.7% (8-3-1) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

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Rays (Home)

The Rays are 45% (18-22) on the moneyline

The Rays are 47.4% (9-10) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Rays are 60.5% (23-15-2) to the under

The Rays are 55.6% (10-8-1) to the under as a home fav

The Rays are 46.4% (13-15) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Rays are 36.4% (4-7) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Rays are 57.7% (15-11-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Rays are 50% (5-5-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Brewers (Away)

The Brewers are 48.8% (20-21) on the moneyline

The Brewers are 26.7% (4-11) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Brewers are 61.5% (24-15-2) to the under

The Brewers are 64.3% (9-5-1) to the under as an away dog

The Brewers are 46.4% (13-15) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Brewers are 33.3% (4-8) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Brewers are 65.4% (17-9-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Brewers are 72.7% (8-3-1) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
05/10/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	3	vs.	Brewers Tobias Myers (R)	2	-130	9.5	-1	U 5 -4.5
05/09/25 2025	Rays Zack Littell (R)	4	vs.	Brewers Jose Quintana (L)	3	-102	9.5	-1	U 7 -2.5
05/01/24 2024	Rays Zach Eflin (R)	1	@	Brewers Colin Rea (R)	7	-108	8.5	+6	U 8 -0.5
04/30/24 2024	Rays Tyler Alexander (L)	2	@	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	8	+150	7.5	+6	O 10 +2.5
04/29/24 2024	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	1	@	Brewers Bryse Wilson (R)	0	-104	8.0	-1	U 1 -7.0

Rays as Home (2 games)		3.5	-	-	2.5	-115	9.5	-1.0	U 6.0 -3.5

All Games Avg (5 games)		2.2	-	-	4.0	+100	8.6	+1.8	U 6.2 -2.4

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 4 – 2 Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Milwaukee Brewers", home_team: "Tampa Bay Rays", game_date: "2025-05-11" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report MILNo report TBNo report

Notes

Brewers

Situational Factor(s)

Rays

Situational Factor(s)

Brewers

Rays

Filters

Schedules

Brewers Schedule Follow global filters

Rays Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Rays (Home)

Brewers (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 4 – 2
Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays