MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 7 – 4
Tampa Bay Rays @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Rays: 10-14 (41.7%) | Drew Rasmussen (R): 1-3 (25.0%)

Diamondbacks: 14-10 (58.3%) | Corbin Burnes (R): 2-2 (50.0%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Rays

+117

+1.5 (-182)

o3.5 (-132)

8.5

Diamondbacks

-137

-1.5 (+152)

o4.5 (+106)

Open

Rays

+114

+1.5 (-190)

o3.5 (-132)

8.0

Diamondbacks

-133

-1.5 (+157)

o4.5 (+106)

Odds Full MLB odds board

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report TBNo report ARINo report

Notes

Rays

Situational Factor(s)

Game off extra innings

Baller System(s)

Unders on lower totals after a game that went into extra innings

Diamondbacks

Situational Factor(s)

Game off extra innings

Baller System(s)

Unders on lower totals after a game that went into extra innings

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Rays

D. Rasmussen	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Diamondbacks

C. Burnes	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Rays Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/26/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	-	@	Padres Dylan Cease (R)	-	+120	7.0
04/25/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	-	@	Padres Michael King (R)	-	+122	7.0
04/24/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	-	@	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	-	+118	8.5
04/23/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	7	@	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	6 F/11	+134	8.5
04/22/25 2025	Rays Zack Littell (R)	1	@	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	5	+150	9.0
04/20/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	0	vs.	Yankees Max Fried (L)	4	+146	8.0
04/19/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	10	vs.	Yankees Carlos Carrasco (R)	8 F/10	-124	8.5
04/18/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	0	vs.	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	1	-100	8.0
04/17/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	3	vs.	Yankees Will Warren (R)	6	-108	9.0
04/16/25 2025	Rays Zack Littell (R)	0	vs.	Red Sox Sean Newcomb (L)	1	-134	9.0
04/15/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	4	vs.	Red Sox Walker Buehler (R)	7	-130	9.0
04/14/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	16	vs.	Red Sox Tanner Houck (R)	1	-126	8.5
04/13/25 2025	Rays Joe Boyle (R)	8	vs.	Braves Chris Sale (L)	3	+146	8.5

Away Games Avg (2 games)		4.0	-	-	5.5	+142	8.8

All Games Avg (10 games)		4.9	-	-	4.2	+104	8.6

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/26/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	-	vs.	Braves Grant Holmes (R)	-	-126	9.5
04/25/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	-	vs.	Braves Chris Sale (L)	-	+110	8.5
04/24/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	-	vs.	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	-	-138	8.5
04/23/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	6	vs.	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	7 F/11	-158	8.5
04/22/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	5	vs.	Rays Zack Littell (R)	1	-178	9.0
04/20/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	3	@	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	2 F/11	+120	7.5
04/19/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	2	@	Cubs Ben Brown (R)	6	+110	7.5
04/18/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	11	@	Cubs Colin Rea (R)	13	-112	11.5
04/17/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	6	@	Marlins Edward Cabrera (R)	4	-154	8.5
04/16/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	6	@	Marlins Max Meyer (R)	2	-146	8.5
04/15/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	10	@	Marlins Connor Gillispie (R)	4	-166	8.5
04/13/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	5	vs.	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	2	-118	8.0
04/12/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	5	vs.	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	4	-178	9.5

Home Games Avg (4 games)		5.3	-	-	3.5	-155	8.8

All Games Avg (10 games)		5.9	-	-	4.5	-133	8.7

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Drew Rasmussen's mix vs. ARI bats

Drew Rasmussen's pitches			ARI hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	35.2%	95.8	16.8% 1st	21.1% 2nd	.265 3rd	.324 26th	.362 4th	.599 22nd	.275 18th	45.1% 25th	11.6% 15th	90.8 20th
Cutter	31.4%	90.3	16.9% 1st	25.5% 8th	.286 9th	.340 7th	.384 2nd	.618 5th	.278 4th	41.1% 10th	10.7% 6th	88.2 18th
Sinker	22.9%	95.4	11.4% 1st	21.2% 2nd	.273 20th	.323 17th	.350 11th	.501 17th	.178 15th	48.9% 3rd	6.9% 15th	90.5 2nd
Sweeper	4.7%	84.6	30.2% 12th	32.2% 26th	.207 19th	.281 25th	.268 15th	.492 23rd	.211 19th	28.8% 24th	8.1% 16th	85.3 22nd
Curveball	4.3%	80.4	28.4% 9th	25.9% 4th	.220 20th	.340 8th	.321 2nd	.562 12th	.222 15th	35.3% 25th	6.9% 21st	87.2 20th
Changeup	1.2%	89.4	28.4% 8th	33.1% 13th	.240 10th	.305 21st	.290 15th	.494 21st	.189 15th	38.8% 3rd	7.0% 17th	87.6 5th
Slider	0.2%	84.6	32.2% 11th	31.5% 12th	.207 29th	.321 18th	.295 13th	.550 17th	.229 16th	41.2% 8th	8.4% 18th	89.0 6th
Whole mix, by usage			16.9% 1st	23.4% 2nd	.268 7th	.327 17th	.359 2nd	.575 14th	.247 13th	43.4% 13th	9.8% 14th	89.5 18th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Drew Rasmussen's; every other column is ARI's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is ARI's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Corbin Burnes's mix vs. TBR bats

Corbin Burnes's pitches			TBR hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Cutter	55.0%	94.1	20.6% 11th	26.0% 14th	.214 30th	.306 28th	.330 25th	.495 30th	.189 28th	34.3% 30th	7.5% 27th	85.9 28th
Curveball	19.2%	80.0	23.6% 1st	26.8% 8th	.249 5th	.309 24th	.285 13th	.517 21st	.208 18th	37.1% 16th	6.4% 24th	88.0 13th
Sinker	9.6%	95.6	14.1% 16th	24.3% 12th	.277 17th	.316 21st	.325 28th	.482 22nd	.166 19th	43.4% 22nd	6.2% 21st	88.8 25th
Slider	8.9%	87.8	26.4% 2nd	28.4% 2nd	.233 14th	.316 20th	.301 11th	.532 23rd	.216 20th	42.0% 3rd	10.0% 11th	88.6 8th
Changeup	7.2%	88.3	23.1% 1st	34.5% 20th	.251 3rd	.321 13th	.306 4th	.495 20th	.174 22nd	35.5% 13th	5.8% 26th	86.4 15th
Whole mix, by usage			21.2% 3rd	26.8% 10th	.231 30th	.310 30th	.317 25th	.501 30th	.192 29th	36.5% 29th	7.3% 26th	86.9 27th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Corbin Burnes's; every other column is TBR's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is TBR's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Drew Rasmussen Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/18	TBR [ 0 ]	NYY [ 1 ]	-100	8	5.67	84	7	3	3	0	1	1	Carlos Rodon (L)
4/12	TBR [ 4 ]	ATL [ 5 ]	-142	8.5	5	80	7	1	4	0	0	0	AJ Smith-Shawver (R)
4/6	TEX [ 4 ]	TBR [ 3 ]	-112	8	5	79	4	1	3	0	1	1	Kumar Rocker (R)
3/31	TBR [ 6 ]	PIT [ 1 ]	-188	8	5	70	4	0	2	0	0	0	Carmen Mlodzinski (R)
9/14	CLE [ 6 ]	TBR [ 1 ]	+110	8.5	2	28	2	0	1	0	0	0	Joey Cantillo (L)
Averages:					4.53	68.2	4.8	1	2.6	0	0.4	0.4

Corbin Burnes Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/18	CHC [ 13 ]	ARI [ 11 ]	-112	11.5	6	98	3	0	6	1	2	2	Colin Rea (R)
4/12	ARI [ 5 ]	MIL [ 4 ]	-178	9.5	6	88	3	2	4	1	3	3	Chad Patrick (R)
4/6	WSN [ 5 ]	ARI [ 4 ]	-180	7.5	5	89	3	4	7	0	4	4	Trevor Williams (R)
4/1	NYY [ 5 ]	ARI [ 7 ]	-108	8.5	4.33	98	8	3	4	2	2	4	Will Warren (R)
10/1	BAL [ 0 ]	KCR [ 1 ]	-154	6.5	8	84	3	1	5	0	1	1	Cole Ragans (L)
Averages:					5.87	91.4	4	2	5.2	0.8	2.4	2.8

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

TBR Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/21	4/22	4/23	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Mason Englert	·	2.0 (30)	·	1	2.0	30	1	2	1	2
Garrett Cleavinger	·	·	1.1 (10)	1	1.1	10	0	0	0	0
Edwin Uceta	·	·	1.0 (28)	1	1.0	28	0	2	1	0
Eric Orze	·	·	1.0 (19)	1	1.0	19	0	2	1	0
Mason Montgomery	·	·	1.0 (23)	1	1.0	23	2	1	1	2
Pete Fairbanks	·	·	0.2 (11)	1	0.2	11	0	0	0	0
Team Totals (6 arms used):				6	7.0	121	3	7	4	4

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

ARI Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/21	4/22	4/23	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Juan Morillo ⚠	·	1.0 (15)	1.0 (10)	2	2.0	25	2	1	0	0
Ryan Thompson ⚠	·	1.0 (13)	1.0 (20)	2	2.0	33	2	1	3	1
Drey Jameson	·	·	1.0 (23)	1	1.0	23	0	1	3	1
Jalen Beeks	·	1.0 (11)	·	1	1.0	11	0	0	2	0
Justin Martinez	·	·	1.0 (12)	1	1.0	12	1	0	0	0
Shelby Miller	·	·	0.1 (16)	1	0.1	16	1	1	1	0
Team Totals (6 arms used):				8	7.1	120	6	4	9	2

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

Notable Trends

No notable trends identified for this matchup.

View All Records

Diamondbacks (Home)

The Diamondbacks are 56% (14-11) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 50% (6-6) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 52.2% (12-11-2) to the over

The Diamondbacks are 60% (6-4-2) to the under as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 56% (14-11) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 50% (6-6) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 52.2% (12-11-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Diamondbacks are 60% (6-4-2) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Rays (Away)

The Rays are 44% (11-14) on the moneyline

The Rays are 40% (2-3) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Rays are 52.2% (12-11-2) to the under

The Rays are 60% (3-2) to the over as an away dog

The Rays are 44% (11-14) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Rays are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Rays are 52.2% (12-11-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Rays are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
04/23/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	6	vs.	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	7 F/11	-158	8.5	+1	O 13 +4.5
04/22/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	5	vs.	Rays Zack Littell (R)	1	-178	9.0	-4	U 6 -3.0
08/18/24 2024	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	7	@	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	8 F/12	-124	7.5	+1	O 15 +7.5
08/17/24 2024	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	1	@	Rays Jeffrey Springs (L)	6	-118	7.5	+5	U 7 -0.5
08/16/24 2024	Diamondbacks Ryne Nelson (R)	4	@	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	5	-108	8.0	+1	O 9 +1.0

Diamondbacks as Home (2 games)		5.5	-	-	4.0	-168	8.8	-1.5	O 9.5 +0.8

All Games Avg (5 games)		4.6	-	-	5.4	-134	8.1	+0.8	O 10.0 +1.9

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 7 – 4 Tampa Bay Rays @ Arizona Diamondbacks window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Tampa Bay Rays", home_team: "Arizona Diamondbacks", game_date: "2025-04-24" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report TBNo report ARINo report

Notes

Rays

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Diamondbacks

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Rays

Diamondbacks

Filters

Schedules

Rays Schedule Follow global filters

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Diamondbacks (Home)

Rays (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 7 – 4
Tampa Bay Rays @ Arizona Diamondbacks