MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 7 – 6
Tampa Bay Rays @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Rays: 9-14 (39.1%) | Taj Bradley (R): 2-2 (50.0%)

Diamondbacks: 14-9 (60.9%) | Eduardo Rodriguez (L): 2-2 (50.0%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Rays

+136

+1.5 (-155)

o3.5 (-134)

9.0

Diamondbacks

-160

-1.5 (+130)

o4.5 (-120)

Open

Rays

+122

+1.5 (-172)

o3.5 (-134)

9.0

Diamondbacks

-141

-1.5 (+143)

o4.5 (-120)

Odds Full MLB odds board

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report TBNo report ARINo report

Notes

Rays

Situational Factor(s)

Game off giving up a walk-off win

Diamondbacks

Situational Factor(s)

Game off a walk-off win

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Rays

T. Bradley	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Diamondbacks

E. Rodriguez	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Rays Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/25/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	-	@	Padres Michael King (R)	-	+122	7.0
04/24/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	-	@	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	-	+118	8.5
04/23/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	-	@	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	-	+134	8.5
04/22/25 2025	Rays Zack Littell (R)	1	@	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	5	+150	9.0
04/20/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	0	vs.	Yankees Max Fried (L)	4	+146	8.0
04/19/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	10	vs.	Yankees Carlos Carrasco (R)	8 F/10	-124	8.5
04/18/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	0	vs.	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	1	-100	8.0
04/17/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	3	vs.	Yankees Will Warren (R)	6	-108	9.0
04/16/25 2025	Rays Zack Littell (R)	0	vs.	Red Sox Sean Newcomb (L)	1	-134	9.0
04/15/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	4	vs.	Red Sox Walker Buehler (R)	7	-130	9.0
04/14/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	16	vs.	Red Sox Tanner Houck (R)	1	-126	8.5
04/13/25 2025	Rays Joe Boyle (R)	8	vs.	Braves Chris Sale (L)	3	+146	8.5
04/12/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	4	vs.	Braves AJ Smith-Shawver (R)	5	-142	8.5

Away Games Avg (1 game)		1.0	-	-	5.0	+150	9.0

All Games Avg (10 games)		4.6	-	-	4.1	-103	8.6

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/25/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	-	vs.	Braves Chris Sale (L)	-	+110	8.5
04/24/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	-	vs.	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	-	-138	8.5
04/23/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	-	vs.	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	-	-158	8.5
04/22/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	5	vs.	Rays Zack Littell (R)	1	-178	9.0
04/20/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	3	@	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	2 F/11	+120	7.5
04/19/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	2	@	Cubs Ben Brown (R)	6	+110	7.5
04/18/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	11	@	Cubs Colin Rea (R)	13	-112	11.5
04/17/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	6	@	Marlins Edward Cabrera (R)	4	-154	8.5
04/16/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	6	@	Marlins Max Meyer (R)	2	-146	8.5
04/15/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	10	@	Marlins Connor Gillispie (R)	4	-166	8.5
04/13/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	5	vs.	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	2	-118	8.0
04/12/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	5	vs.	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	4	-178	9.5
04/11/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	0	vs.	Brewers Jose Quintana (L)	7	-152	9.0

Home Games Avg (4 games)		3.8	-	-	3.5	-154	8.9

All Games Avg (10 games)		5.3	-	-	4.5	-133	8.8

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Taj Bradley's mix vs. ARI bats

Taj Bradley's pitches			ARI hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	38.6%	96.2	16.8% 1st	21.1% 2nd	.265 3rd	.324 26th	.362 4th	.599 22nd	.275 18th	45.1% 25th	11.6% 15th	90.8 20th
Cutter	22.6%	89.6	16.9% 1st	25.5% 8th	.286 9th	.340 7th	.384 2nd	.618 5th	.278 4th	41.1% 10th	10.7% 6th	88.2 18th
Split-Finger	15.1%	91.2	34.5% 15th	36.2% 20th	.207 18th	.288 25th	.250 21st	.467 22nd	.179 18th	36.3% 16th	6.0% 20th	88.1 8th
Curveball	14.7%	81.8	28.4% 9th	25.9% 4th	.220 20th	.340 8th	.321 2nd	.562 12th	.222 15th	35.3% 25th	6.9% 21st	87.2 20th
Sinker	8.9%	96.0	11.4% 1st	21.2% 2nd	.273 20th	.323 17th	.350 11th	.501 17th	.178 15th	48.9% 3rd	6.9% 15th	90.5 2nd
Whole mix, by usage			20.7% 2nd	25.1% 4th	.255 8th	.324 19th	.343 2nd	.569 18th	.245 15th	41.8% 21st	9.4% 17th	89.2 21st

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Taj Bradley's; every other column is ARI's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is ARI's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Eduardo Rodriguez's mix vs. TBR bats

Eduardo Rodriguez's pitches			TBR hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	46.6%	92.0	20.7% 13th	21.6% 5th	.271 1st	.336 18th	.329 28th	.581 26th	.245 28th	44.5% 27th	9.3% 27th	90.4 24th
Changeup	20.5%	85.9	23.1% 1st	34.5% 20th	.251 3rd	.321 13th	.306 4th	.495 20th	.174 22nd	35.5% 13th	5.8% 26th	86.4 15th
Cutter	15.6%	89.2	20.6% 11th	26.0% 14th	.214 30th	.306 28th	.330 25th	.495 30th	.189 28th	34.3% 30th	7.5% 27th	85.9 28th
Sinker	8.8%	91.5	14.1% 16th	24.3% 12th	.277 17th	.316 21st	.325 28th	.482 22nd	.166 19th	43.4% 22nd	6.2% 21st	88.8 25th
Curveball	4.7%	79.4	23.6% 1st	26.8% 8th	.249 5th	.309 24th	.285 13th	.517 21st	.208 18th	37.1% 16th	6.4% 24th	88.0 13th
Slider	3.8%	84.6	26.4% 2nd	28.4% 2nd	.233 14th	.316 20th	.301 11th	.532 23rd	.216 20th	42.0% 3rd	10.0% 11th	88.6 8th
Whole mix, by usage			20.9% 5th	25.7% 9th	.256 11th	.324 19th	.321 24th	.536 28th	.212 28th	40.5% 25th	7.9% 29th	88.6 27th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Eduardo Rodriguez's; every other column is TBR's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is TBR's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Taj Bradley Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/17	TBR [ 3 ]	NYY [ 6 ]	-108	9	5.33	90	3	4	9	1	6	6	Will Warren (R)
4/11	TBR [ 6 ]	ATL [ 3 ]	-140	9	6	93	7	2	5	0	1	1	Bryce Elder (R)
4/5	TEX [ 6 ]	TBR [ 4 ]	+158	7.5	5	82	7	4	2	2	4	4	Jacob deGrom (R)
3/30	TBR [ 6 ]	COL [ 4 ]	-180	7.5	6	78	7	0	5	0	2	2	Ryan Feltner (R)
9/27	BOS [ 1 ]	TBR [ 2 ]	+112	8	6	71	7	1	3	0	0	0	Nick Pivetta (R)
Averages:					5.67	82.8	6.2	2.2	4.8	0.6	2.6	2.6

Eduardo Rodriguez Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/17	MIA [ 4 ]	ARI [ 6 ]	-154	8.5	5.33	93	9	0	10	0	1	3	Edward Cabrera (R)
4/11	ARI [ 0 ]	MIL [ 7 ]	-152	9	6.33	95	3	2	6	0	2	3	Jose Quintana (L)
4/5	WSN [ 4 ]	ARI [ 3 ]	-130	9.5	5	90	12	1	5	0	4	4	Mitchell Parker (L)
3/30	ARI [ 10 ]	CHC [ 6 ]	-112	9	5.33	85	5	3	3	2	3	3	Matthew Boyd (L)
9/28	ARI [ 0 ]	SDP [ 5 ]	-220	9	4.67	62	3	2	4	0	0	0	Randy Vasquez (R)
Averages:					5.33	85	6.4	1.6	5.6	0.4	2	2.6

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

TBR Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/20	4/21	4/22	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Eric Orze	2.0 (34)	·	·	1	2.0	34	2	0	2	0
Mason Englert	·	·	2.0 (30)	1	2.0	30	1	2	1	2
Garrett Cleavinger	1.0 (13)	·	·	1	1.0	13	1	0	1	1
Team Totals (3 arms used):				3	5.0	77	4	2	4	3

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

ARI Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/20	4/21	4/22	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Jalen Beeks	1.1 (28)	·	1.0 (11)	2	2.1	39	1	0	3	0
Ryan Thompson	1.0 (24)	·	1.0 (13)	2	2.0	37	2	2	0	0
Shelby Miller	2.0 (31)	·	·	1	2.0	31	2	0	1	0
Drey Jameson	1.0 (8)	·	·	1	1.0	8	0	0	0	0
Juan Morillo	·	·	1.0 (15)	1	1.0	15	1	1	0	0
Team Totals (5 arms used):				7	8.1	130	6	3	4	0

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

Notable Trends

The Rays are 25% (1-3) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Rays are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

View All Records

Diamondbacks (Home)

The Diamondbacks are 58.3% (14-10) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 54.5% (6-5) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 50% (11-11-2) to the over

The Diamondbacks are 66.7% (6-3-2) to the under as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 58.3% (14-10) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 50% (11-11-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Diamondbacks are 66.7% (6-3-2) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Rays (Away)

The Rays are 41.7% (10-14) on the moneyline

The Rays are 25% (1-3) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Rays are 54.5% (12-10-2) to the under

The Rays are 50% (2-2) to the over as an away dog

The Rays are 41.7% (10-14) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Rays are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Rays are 54.5% (12-10-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Rays are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
04/22/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	5	vs.	Rays Zack Littell (R)	1	-178	9.0	-4	U 6 -3.0
08/18/24 2024	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	7	@	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	8 F/12	-124	7.5	+1	O 15 +7.5
08/17/24 2024	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	1	@	Rays Jeffrey Springs (L)	6	-118	7.5	+5	U 7 -0.5
08/16/24 2024	Diamondbacks Ryne Nelson (R)	4	@	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	5	-108	8.0	+1	O 9 +1.0

Diamondbacks as Home (1 games)		5.0	-	-	1.0	-178	9.0	-4.0	U 6.0 -3.0

All Games Avg (4 games)		4.3	-	-	5.0	-129	8.0	+0.8	O 9.3 +1.3

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 7 – 6 Tampa Bay Rays @ Arizona Diamondbacks window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Tampa Bay Rays", home_team: "Arizona Diamondbacks", game_date: "2025-04-23" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report TBNo report ARINo report

Notes

Rays

Situational Factor(s)

Diamondbacks

Situational Factor(s)

Rays

Diamondbacks

Filters

Schedules

Rays Schedule Follow global filters

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Diamondbacks (Home)

Rays (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 7 – 6
Tampa Bay Rays @ Arizona Diamondbacks