MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 1 – 5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Rays: 9-13 (40.9%) | Zack Littell (R): 0-4 (0.0%)

Diamondbacks: 13-9 (59.1%) | Brandon Pfaadt (R): 3-1 (75.0%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Rays

+150

+1.5 (-136)

o3.5 (-133)

9.0

Diamondbacks

-177

-1.5 (+115)

o4.5 (-136)

Open

Rays

+132

+1.5 (-151)

o3.5 (-133)

9.0

Diamondbacks

-153

-1.5 (+127)

o4.5 (-136)

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report TBNo report ARINo report

Notes

Rays

Nothing active

Diamondbacks

Situational Factor(s)

Game off extra innings

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Rays

Z. Littell	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Diamondbacks

B. Pfaadt	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Rays Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/24/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	-	@	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	-	+118	8.5
04/23/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	-	@	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	-	+134	8.5
04/22/25 2025	Rays Zack Littell (R)	-	@	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	-	+150	9.0
04/20/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	0	vs.	Yankees Max Fried (L)	4	+146	8.0
04/19/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	10	vs.	Yankees Carlos Carrasco (R)	8 F/10	-124	8.5
04/18/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	0	vs.	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	1	-100	8.0
04/17/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	3	vs.	Yankees Will Warren (R)	6	-108	9.0
04/16/25 2025	Rays Zack Littell (R)	0	vs.	Red Sox Sean Newcomb (L)	1	-134	9.0
04/15/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	4	vs.	Red Sox Walker Buehler (R)	7	-130	9.0
04/14/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	16	vs.	Red Sox Tanner Houck (R)	1	-126	8.5
04/13/25 2025	Rays Joe Boyle (R)	8	vs.	Braves Chris Sale (L)	3	+146	8.5
04/12/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	4	vs.	Braves AJ Smith-Shawver (R)	5	-142	8.5
04/11/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	6	vs.	Braves Bryce Elder (R)	3	-140	9.0

All Games Avg (10 games)		5.1	-	-	3.9	-111	8.6

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/24/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	-	vs.	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	-	-138	8.5
04/23/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	-	vs.	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	-	-158	8.5
04/22/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	-	vs.	Rays Zack Littell (R)	-	-178	9.0
04/20/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	3	@	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	2 F/11	+120	7.5
04/19/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	2	@	Cubs Ben Brown (R)	6	+110	7.5
04/18/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	11	@	Cubs Colin Rea (R)	13	-112	11.5
04/17/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	6	@	Marlins Edward Cabrera (R)	4	-154	8.5
04/16/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	6	@	Marlins Max Meyer (R)	2	-146	8.5
04/15/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	10	@	Marlins Connor Gillispie (R)	4	-166	8.5
04/13/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	5	vs.	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	2	-118	8.0
04/12/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	5	vs.	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	4	-178	9.5
04/11/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	0	vs.	Brewers Jose Quintana (L)	7	-152	9.0
04/09/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	9	vs.	Orioles Dean Kremer (R)	0	-118	9.0

Home Games Avg (4 games)		4.8	-	-	3.3	-139	8.9

All Games Avg (10 games)		5.7	-	-	4.4	-128	8.8

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Zack Littell's mix vs. ARI bats

Zack Littell's pitches			ARI hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Slider	27.5%	87.3	32.2% 11th	31.5% 12th	.207 29th	.321 18th	.295 13th	.550 17th	.229 16th	41.2% 8th	8.4% 18th	89.0 6th
Split-Finger	27.1%	83.4	34.5% 15th	36.2% 20th	.207 18th	.288 25th	.250 21st	.467 22nd	.179 18th	36.3% 16th	6.0% 20th	88.1 8th
4-Seam Fastball	24.0%	92.1	16.8% 1st	21.1% 2nd	.265 3rd	.324 26th	.362 4th	.599 22nd	.275 18th	45.1% 25th	11.6% 15th	90.8 20th
Sinker	16.0%	91.5	11.4% 1st	21.2% 2nd	.273 20th	.323 17th	.350 11th	.501 17th	.178 15th	48.9% 3rd	6.9% 15th	90.5 2nd
Sweeper	5.4%	79.5	30.2% 12th	32.2% 26th	.207 19th	.281 25th	.268 15th	.492 23rd	.211 19th	28.8% 24th	8.1% 16th	85.3 22nd
Whole mix, by usage			25.7% 8th	28.7% 13th	.231 21st	.311 27th	.306 14th	.528 21st	.217 17th	41.4% 14th	8.3% 19th	89.2 10th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Zack Littell's; every other column is ARI's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is ARI's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Brandon Pfaadt's mix vs. TBR bats

Brandon Pfaadt's pitches			TBR hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Sinker	23.5%	93.1	14.1% 16th	24.3% 12th	.277 17th	.316 21st	.325 28th	.482 22nd	.166 19th	43.4% 22nd	6.2% 21st	88.8 25th
4-Seam Fastball	23.4%	93.6	20.7% 13th	21.6% 5th	.271 1st	.336 18th	.329 28th	.581 26th	.245 28th	44.5% 27th	9.3% 27th	90.4 24th
Sweeper	18.6%	84.7	26.5% 3rd	27.6% 8th	.232 8th	.318 11th	.292 8th	.496 20th	.178 27th	32.9% 18th	4.8% 30th	85.9 18th
Changeup	15.7%	87.3	23.1% 1st	34.5% 20th	.251 3rd	.321 13th	.306 4th	.495 20th	.174 22nd	35.5% 13th	5.8% 26th	86.4 15th
Curveball	9.8%	82.0	23.6% 1st	26.8% 8th	.249 5th	.309 24th	.285 13th	.517 21st	.208 18th	37.1% 16th	6.4% 24th	88.0 13th
Cutter	9.2%	89.8	20.6% 11th	26.0% 14th	.214 30th	.306 28th	.330 25th	.495 30th	.189 28th	34.3% 30th	7.5% 27th	85.9 28th
Whole mix, by usage			20.9% 2nd	26.3% 8th	.255 7th	.320 19th	.313 19th	.514 26th	.194 28th	39.0% 23rd	6.7% 30th	87.9 24th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Brandon Pfaadt's; every other column is TBR's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is TBR's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Zack Littell Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/16	TBR [ 0 ]	BOS [ 1 ]	-134	9	6	90	5	3	5	1	1	1	Sean Newcomb (L)
4/10	TBR [ 1 ]	LAA [ 11 ]	-122	8	4	78	4	1	8	4	7	7	Jose Soriano (R)
4/4	TEX [ 5 ]	TBR [ 2 ]	+110	8.5	7	82	3	2	6	1	5	5	Tyler Mahle (R)
3/29	TBR [ 1 ]	COL [ 2 ]	-204	8	6	87	7	0	4	0	1	1	Antonio Senzatela (R)
9/25	DET [ 7 ]	TBR [ 1 ]	-104	7.5	4.67	91	7	0	7	1	3	3	Keider Montero (R)
Averages:					5.53	85.6	5.2	1.2	6	1.4	3.4	3.4

Brandon Pfaadt Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/16	MIA [ 2 ]	ARI [ 6 ]	-146	8.5	5.67	92	6	2	5	1	1	1	Max Meyer (R)
4/9	ARI [ 9 ]	BAL [ 0 ]	-118	9	6	93	3	2	4	0	0	0	Dean Kremer (R)
4/4	WSN [ 4 ]	ARI [ 6 ]	-138	8.5	6	91	4	0	6	3	4	4	Jake Irvin (R)
3/29	ARI [ 3 ]	CHC [ 4 ]	-120	9	6	78	5	1	6	1	3	3	Shota Imanaga (L)
9/29	ARI [ 11 ]	SDP [ 2 ]	-220	8.5	5.33	79	9	1	3	0	1	2	Martin Perez (L)
Averages:					5.8	86.6	5.4	1.2	4.8	1	1.8	2

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

TBR Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/19	4/20	4/21	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Eric Orze	·	2.0 (34)	·	1	2.0	34	2	0	2	0
Mason Englert	2.0 (25)	·	·	1	2.0	25	2	0	0	0
Edwin Uceta	1.1 (21)	·	·	1	1.1	21	3	0	1	0
Garrett Cleavinger	·	1.0 (13)	·	1	1.0	13	1	0	1	1
Hunter Bigge	1.0 (12)	·	·	1	1.0	12	2	0	0	0
Mason Montgomery	1.0 (15)	·	·	1	1.0	15	0	1	1	0
Manuel Rodriguez	0.2 (17)	·	·	1	0.2	17	1	0	1	1
Pete Fairbanks	0.2 (29)	·	·	1	0.2	29	1	2	3	2
Team Totals (8 arms used):				8	9.2	166	12	3	9	4

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

ARI Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/19	4/20	4/21	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Shelby Miller	·	2.0 (31)	·	1	2.0	31	2	0	1	0
Jalen Beeks	·	1.1 (28)	·	1	1.1	28	1	0	1	0
Drey Jameson	·	1.0 (8)	·	1	1.0	8	0	0	0	0
JP Feyereisen	1.0 (23)	·	·	1	1.0	23	1	0	1	0
Juan Morillo	1.0 (20)	·	·	1	1.0	20	2	1	0	0
Ryan Thompson	·	1.0 (24)	·	1	1.0	24	2	1	0	0
Team Totals (6 arms used):				6	7.1	134	8	2	3	0

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

Notable Trends

The Diamondbacks are 75% (6-2-2) to the under as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 75% (6-2-2) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

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Diamondbacks (Home)

The Diamondbacks are 60.9% (14-9) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 60% (6-4) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 52.4% (11-10-2) to the under

The Diamondbacks are 75% (6-2-2) to the under as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 60.9% (14-9) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 52.4% (11-10-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Diamondbacks are 75% (6-2-2) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Rays (Away)

The Rays are 39.1% (9-14) on the moneyline

The Rays are 0% (0-3) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Rays are 57.1% (12-9-2) to the under

The Rays are 66.7% (2-1) to the under as an away dog

The Rays are 39.1% (9-14) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Rays are 0% (0-3) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Rays are 57.1% (12-9-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Rays are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/18/24 2024	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	7	@	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	8 F/12	-124	7.5	+1	O 15 +7.5
08/17/24 2024	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	1	@	Rays Jeffrey Springs (L)	6	-118	7.5	+5	U 7 -0.5
08/16/24 2024	Diamondbacks Ryne Nelson (R)	4	@	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	5	-108	8.0	+1	O 9 +1.0

All Games Avg (3 games)		4.0	-	-	6.3	-116	7.7	+2.3	O 10.3 +2.7

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 1 – 5 Tampa Bay Rays @ Arizona Diamondbacks window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Tampa Bay Rays", home_team: "Arizona Diamondbacks", game_date: "2025-04-22" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report TBNo report ARINo report

Notes

Rays

Diamondbacks

Situational Factor(s)

Rays

Diamondbacks

Filters

Schedules

Rays Schedule Follow global filters

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Diamondbacks (Home)

Rays (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 1 – 5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Arizona Diamondbacks