MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 2 – 6
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs

Diamondbacks: 12-8 (60.0%) | Zac Gallen (R): 2-2 (50.0%)

Cubs: 13-9 (59.1%) | Ben Brown (R): 2-1 (66.7%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Diamondbacks

-105

-1.5 (+159)

o3.5 (-124)

7.5

Cubs

-113

+1.5 (-192)

o3.5 (-127)

Open

Diamondbacks

-114

-1.5 (+159)

o3.5 (-124)

7.5

Cubs

-102

+1.5 (-192)

o3.5 (-127)

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report ARINo report CHCNo report

Notes

Diamondbacks

Situational Factor(s)

Game off giving up a walk-off win

Cubs

Situational Factor(s)

Game off a walk-off win

Baller System(s)

Back home favorite (with a worse record) in the second game of a series coming off a win in game one

Back team off a win when they used a lot of pitchers

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Diamondbacks

Z. Gallen	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Cubs

B. Brown	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/22/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	-	vs.	Rays Zack Littell (R)	-	-178	9.0
04/20/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	-	@	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	-	+120	7.5
04/19/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	-	@	Cubs Ben Brown (R)	-	+110	7.5
04/18/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	11	@	Cubs Colin Rea (R)	13	-112	11.5
04/17/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	6	@	Marlins Edward Cabrera (R)	4	-154	8.5
04/16/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	6	@	Marlins Max Meyer (R)	2	-146	8.5
04/15/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	10	@	Marlins Connor Gillispie (R)	4	-166	8.5
04/13/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	5	vs.	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	2	-118	8.0
04/12/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	5	vs.	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	4	-178	9.5
04/11/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	0	vs.	Brewers Jose Quintana (L)	7	-152	9.0
04/09/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	9	vs.	Orioles Dean Kremer (R)	0	-118	9.0
04/08/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	4	vs.	Orioles Charlie Morton (R)	3	-104	9.5
04/07/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	1	vs.	Orioles Zach Eflin (R)	5	-124	8.5

Away Games Avg (4 games)		8.3	-	-	5.8	-143	9.3

All Games Avg (10 games)		5.7	-	-	4.4	-135	9.1

Cubs Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/22/25 2025	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	-	vs.	Dodgers Dustin May (R)	-	-100	9.0
04/20/25 2025	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	-	vs.	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	-	-142	7.5
04/19/25 2025	Cubs Ben Brown (R)	-	vs.	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	-	-130	7.5
04/18/25 2025	Cubs Colin Rea (R)	13	vs.	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	11	-104	11.5
04/16/25 2025	Cubs Matthew Boyd (L)	2	@	Padres Nick Pivetta (R)	4	-108	7.5
04/15/25 2025	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	2	@	Padres Randy Vasquez (R)	1 F/10	-156	8.0
04/14/25 2025	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	4	@	Padres Dylan Cease (R)	10	+126	7.5
04/13/25 2025	Cubs Colin Rea (R)	4	@	Dodgers Tyler Glasnow (R)	2	+190	9.0
04/12/25 2025	Cubs Ben Brown (R)	16	@	Dodgers Roki Sasaki (R)	0	+152	8.5
04/11/25 2025	Cubs Matthew Boyd (L)	0	@	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	3	+150	8.5
04/09/25 2025	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	2	vs.	Rangers Tyler Mahle (R)	6	-174	7.5
04/08/25 2025	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	10	vs.	Rangers Patrick Corbin (L)	6	-162	8.0
04/07/25 2025	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	7	vs.	Rangers Nathan Eovaldi (R)	0	-130	6.0

Home Games Avg (4 games)		8.0	-	-	5.8	-139	8.3

All Games Avg (10 games)		6.0	-	-	4.3	-102	8.2

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Zac Gallen's mix vs. CHC bats

Zac Gallen's pitches			CHC hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	45.0%	93.5	20.8% 14th	23.0% 11th	.238 25th	.347 6th	.354 11th	.673 4th	.326 6th	50.0% 7th	13.1% 6th	92.1 8th
Knuckle Curve	23.5%	81.1	28.5% 5th	30.2% 6th	.365 1st	.447 1st	.354 1st	.689 5th	.242 10th	41.9% 15th	8.6% 13th	88.8 14th
Changeup	16.0%	86.3	29.8% 12th	35.1% 21st	.240 10th	.325 9th	.301 5th	.540 4th	.215 4th	36.8% 6th	8.6% 7th	87.2 9th
Slider	13.0%	88.7	33.2% 16th	29.8% 5th	.212 26th	.295 30th	.278 27th	.502 28th	.207 23rd	32.8% 30th	7.7% 24th	85.5 30th
Sinker	2.5%	93.2	13.7% 14th	26.9% 26th	.267 26th	.331 11th	.367 2nd	.534 9th	.203 7th	39.7% 29th	7.5% 11th	88.7 26th
Cutter	0.1%	92.4	23.2% 22nd	26.0% 14th	.292 8th	.317 26th	.353 14th	.573 13th	.256 10th	39.6% 17th	9.9% 12th	88.3 17th
Whole mix, by usage			25.5% 8th	27.6% 9th	.266 1st	.360 3rd	.336 2nd	.630 2nd	.270 6th	43.5% 14th	10.5% 9th	89.6 17th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Zac Gallen's; every other column is CHC's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is CHC's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Ben Brown's mix vs. ARI bats

Ben Brown's pitches			ARI hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	55.8%	95.9	16.8% 1st	21.1% 2nd	.265 3rd	.324 26th	.362 4th	.599 22nd	.275 18th	45.1% 25th	11.6% 15th	90.8 20th
Knuckle Curve	39.5%	87.3	31.4% 8th	33.1% 17th	.286 2nd	.285 27th	.275 10th	.507 21st	.222 12th	43.1% 14th	9.4% 11th	88.6 17th
Changeup	4.7%	90.5	28.4% 8th	33.1% 13th	.240 10th	.305 21st	.290 15th	.494 21st	.189 15th	38.8% 3rd	7.0% 17th	87.6 5th
Whole mix, by usage			23.1% 4th	26.4% 9th	.272 2nd	.308 29th	.324 9th	.558 21st	.250 16th	44.0% 19th	10.5% 14th	89.8 21st

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Ben Brown's; every other column is ARI's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is ARI's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Zac Gallen Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/13	ARI [ 5 ]	MIL [ 2 ]	-118	8	6	89	5	3	5	1	2	2	Freddy Peralta (R)
4/7	ARI [ 1 ]	BAL [ 5 ]	-124	8.5	4.67	96	2	4	7	1	5	5	Zach Eflin (R)
4/2	NYY [ 3 ]	ARI [ 4 ]	+120	7.5	6.67	101	13	0	3	0	0	0	Carlos Rodon (L)
3/27	ARI [ 6 ]	CHC [ 10 ]	-126	8.5	4	83	4	4	4	1	4	4	Justin Steele (L)
9/25	ARI [ 8 ]	SFG [ 2 ]	-270	8.5	6	97	11	2	2	0	1	1	Mason Black (R)
Averages:					5.47	93.2	7	2.6	4.2	0.6	2.4	2.4

Ben Brown Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/12	LAD [ 0 ]	CHC [ 16 ]	+152	8.5	6	84	5	0	5	0	0	0	Roki Sasaki (R)
4/6	CHC [ 7 ]	SDP [ 8 ]	-142	7.5	4	79	5	4	7	1	5	5	Kyle Hart (L)
3/31	ATH [ 3 ]	CHC [ 18 ]	-142	8.5	5	75	5	2	6	1	3	3	Joey Estes (R)
6/8	CIN [ 4 ]	CHC [ 3 ]	+106	9	4	65	3	1	3	2	3	3	Andrew Abbott (L)
6/2	CHC [ 2 ]	CIN [ 5 ]	-122	7	5	76	6	1	6	1	5	5	Nick Lodolo (L)
Averages:					4.8	75.8	4.8	1.6	5.4	1	3.2	3.2

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

ARI Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/16	4/17	4/18	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
AJ Puk ⚠	1.0 (15)	1.0 (21)	·	2	2.0	36	2	0	3	1
Jalen Beeks ⚠	0.1 (3)	1.0 (21)	·	2	1.1	24	4	1	0	0
Justin Martinez ⚠	1.0 (8)	0.1 (10)	·	2	1.1	18	1	1	0	0
Ryan Thompson	·	1.1 (33)	·	1	1.1	33	2	2	2	1
Shelby Miller	1.0 (17)	·	·	1	1.0	17	2	1	0	0
Bryce Jarvis	·	·	0.2 (16)	1	0.2	16	2	1	1	3
Joe Mantiply	·	·	0.2 (26)	1	0.2	26	1	0	6	3
Ryne Nelson	·	·	0.2 (36)	1	0.2	36	2	1	5	5
Team Totals (8 arms used):				11	9.0	206	16	7	17	13

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

CHC Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/16	4/17	4/18	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Daniel Palencia	1.2 (25)	·	·	1	1.2	25	1	1	1	1
Brad Keller	·	·	1.0 (12)	1	1.0	12	2	0	0	0
Julian Merryweather	·	·	1.0 (19)	1	1.0	19	1	0	1	0
Ryan Pressly	·	·	1.0 (7)	1	1.0	7	0	0	1	0
Ethan Roberts	0.1 (4)	·	0.1 (7)	2	0.2	11	0	0	1	1
Luke Little	0.2 (34)	·	·	1	0.2	34	0	4	0	1
Porter Hodge	·	·	0.2 (31)	1	0.2	31	1	2	4	6
Caleb Thielbar	·	·	0.1 (8)	1	0.1	8	0	1	0	0
Jordan Wicks	·	·	0.0 (5)	1	0.0	5	0	0	3	3
Team Totals (9 arms used):				10	7.0	152	5	8	11	12

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

Notable Trends

The Cubs are 71.4% (5-2) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Cubs are 85.7% (6-1) to the over as a home fav

The Cubs are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Cubs are 70% (14-6-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Cubs are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

View All Records

Cubs (Home)

The Cubs are 60.9% (14-9) on the moneyline

The Cubs are 71.4% (5-2) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Cubs are 68.2% (15-7-1) to the over

The Cubs are 85.7% (6-1) to the over as a home fav

The Cubs are 66.7% (14-7) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Cubs are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Cubs are 70% (14-6-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Cubs are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Diamondbacks (Away)

The Diamondbacks are 57.1% (12-9) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 33.3% (1-2) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Diamondbacks are 52.6% (10-9-2) to the over

The Diamondbacks are 66.7% (2-1) to the over as an away dog

The Diamondbacks are 57.1% (12-9) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Diamondbacks are 52.6% (10-9-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Diamondbacks are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
04/18/25 2025	Cubs Colin Rea (R)	13	vs.	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	11	-104	11.5	-2	O 24 +12.5
03/30/25 2025	Cubs Matthew Boyd (L)	6	@	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	10	-104	9.0	+4	O 16 +7.0
03/29/25 2025	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	4	@	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	3	+100	9.0	-1	U 7 -2.0
03/28/25 2025	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	1	@	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	8	+120	9.0	+7	P 9 0.0
03/27/25 2025	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	10	@	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	6	+108	8.5	-4	O 16 +7.5
07/21/24 2024	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	2	vs.	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	1 F/10	-130	7.0	-1	U 3 -4.0
07/20/24 2024	Cubs Kyle Hendricks (R)	0	vs.	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	3	+114	8.5	+3	U 3 -5.5

Cubs as Home (3 games)		5.0	-	-	5.0	-106	9.0	0.0	O 10.0 +1.0

All Games Avg (7 games)		5.1	-	-	6.0	+101	8.9	+0.9	O 11.1 +2.2

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 2 – 6 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Arizona Diamondbacks", home_team: "Chicago Cubs", game_date: "2025-04-19" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report ARINo report CHCNo report

Notes

Diamondbacks

Situational Factor(s)

Cubs

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Diamondbacks

Cubs

Filters

Schedules

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Cubs Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Cubs (Home)

Diamondbacks (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 2 – 6
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs