MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 0 – 3
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

Rays: 14-17 (45.2%) | Ryan Pepiot (R): 3-3 (50.0%)

Yankees: 18-13 (58.1%) | Max Fried (L): 6-0 (100.0%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Rays

+198

+1.5 (-108)

o3.5 (+103)

8.5

Yankees

-238

-1.5 (-112)

o5.5 (+112)

Open

Rays

+172

+1.5 (-121)

o3.5 (+103)

8.5

Yankees

-204

-1.5 (+101)

o5.5 (+112)

Odds Full MLB odds board

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report TBNo report NYYNo report

Notes

Rays

Nothing active

Yankees

Situational Factor(s)

Rest Advantage

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Rays

R. Pepiot	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Yankees

M. Fried	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Rays Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
05/04/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	-	@	Yankees Will Warren (R)	-	+140	8.5
05/03/25 2025	Rays Zack Littell (R)	-	@	Yankees Ryan Yarbrough (L)	-	+154	9.5
05/02/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	-	@	Yankees Max Fried (L)	-	+168	8.5
05/01/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	2	vs.	Royals Seth Lugo (R)	8	-154	8.5
04/30/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	0	vs.	Royals Noah Cameron (L)	3	-184	8.5
04/29/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	1	vs.	Royals Michael Lorenzen (R)	3	-156	8.5
04/27/25 2025	Rays Zack Littell (R)	4	@	Padres Randy Vasquez (R)	2	-120	8.5
04/26/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	4	@	Padres Dylan Cease (R)	1	+120	7.0
04/25/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	1	@	Padres Michael King (R)	0	+122	7.0
04/24/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	7	@	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	4 F/10	+118	8.5
04/23/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	7	@	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	6 F/11	+134	8.5
04/22/25 2025	Rays Zack Littell (R)	1	@	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	5	+150	9.0
04/20/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	0	vs.	Yankees Max Fried (L)	4	+146	8.0

Away Games Avg (6 games)		4.0	-	-	3.0	+119	8.1

All Games Avg (10 games)		2.7	-	-	3.6	-100	8.2

Yankees Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
05/04/25 2025	Yankees Will Warren (R)	-	vs.	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	-	-166	8.5
05/03/25 2025	Yankees Ryan Yarbrough (L)	-	vs.	Rays Zack Littell (R)	-	-190	9.5
05/02/25 2025	Yankees Max Fried (L)	-	vs.	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	-	-200	8.5
04/30/25 2025	Yankees Carlos Carrasco (R)	4	@	Orioles Cade Povich (L)	5	-108	9.5
04/29/25 2025	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	15	@	Orioles Kyle Gibson (R)	3	-174	9.5
04/28/25 2025	Yankees Will Warren (R)	3	@	Orioles Tomoyuki Sugano (R)	4	-130	9.5
04/27/25 2025	Yankees Clarke Schmidt (L)	5	vs.	Blue Jays Chris Bassitt (R)	1	-165	8.5
04/27/25 2025	Yankees Max Fried (R)	11	vs.	Blue Jays Kevin Gausman (R)	2	-198	8.5
04/25/25 2025	Yankees Carlos Carrasco (R)	2	vs.	Blue Jays Jose Berrios (R)	4	-148	9.0
04/23/25 2025	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	5	@	Guardians Luis Ortiz (R)	1	-172	8.5
04/22/25 2025	Yankees Will Warren (R)	2	@	Guardians Tanner Bibee (R)	3	-112	8.5
04/21/25 2025	Yankees Clarke Schmidt (R)	4	@	Guardians Gavin Williams (R)	6	-130	8.5
04/20/25 2025	Yankees Max Fried (L)	4	@	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	0	-174	8.0

Home Games Avg (3 games)		6.0	-	-	2.3	-169	8.7

All Games Avg (10 games)		5.5	-	-	2.9	-148	8.8

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Ryan Pepiot's mix vs. NYY bats

Ryan Pepiot's pitches			NYY hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	45.0%	95.2	23.5% 27th	22.4% 8th	.249 16th	.348 5th	.363 3rd	.701 1st	.353 1st	53.8% 2nd	14.2% 2nd	93.2 2nd
Changeup	25.1%	86.8	29.2% 9th	30.6% 3rd	.255 2nd	.310 19th	.294 9th	.498 18th	.188 16th	35.0% 14th	6.5% 22nd	87.3 6th
Slider	17.8%	89.0	36.2% 27th	31.3% 11th	.223 20th	.335 4th	.305 10th	.633 1st	.298 1st	44.9% 1st	11.4% 5th	89.8 2nd
Cutter	6.3%	91.6	25.4% 27th	25.1% 6th	.299 5th	.343 5th	.391 1st	.678 1st	.335 1st	43.8% 6th	14.7% 1st	89.5 9th
Curveball	3.3%	80.8	30.3% 12th	30.1% 23rd	.240 7th	.336 12th	.295 10th	.587 7th	.251 8th	48.2% 1st	10.3% 6th	90.9 1st
Sinker	2.6%	94.7	15.0% 23rd	25.8% 21st	.309 3rd	.356 1st	.379 1st	.599 1st	.243 1st	49.2% 2nd	9.7% 1st	90.5 2nd
Whole mix, by usage			27.3% 22nd	26.6% 4th	.250 9th	.336 4th	.335 3rd	.630 1st	.294 1st	46.6% 2nd	11.6% 2nd	90.7 1st

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Ryan Pepiot's; every other column is NYY's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is NYY's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Max Fried's mix vs. TBR bats

Max Fried's pitches			TBR hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Cutter	28.3%	93.6	20.6% 11th	26.0% 14th	.214 30th	.306 28th	.330 25th	.495 30th	.189 28th	34.3% 30th	7.5% 27th	85.9 28th
Sinker	17.8%	94.1	14.1% 16th	24.3% 12th	.277 17th	.316 21st	.325 28th	.482 22nd	.166 19th	43.4% 22nd	6.2% 21st	88.8 25th
Curveball	17.4%	75.3	23.6% 1st	26.8% 8th	.249 5th	.309 24th	.285 13th	.517 21st	.208 18th	37.1% 16th	6.4% 24th	88.0 13th
4-Seam Fastball	12.2%	95.9	20.7% 13th	21.6% 5th	.271 1st	.336 18th	.329 28th	.581 26th	.245 28th	44.5% 27th	9.3% 27th	90.4 24th
Sweeper	11.5%	81.5	26.5% 3rd	27.6% 8th	.232 8th	.318 11th	.292 8th	.496 20th	.178 27th	32.9% 18th	4.8% 30th	85.9 18th
Changeup	11.2%	85.4	23.1% 1st	34.5% 20th	.251 3rd	.321 13th	.306 4th	.495 20th	.174 22nd	35.5% 13th	5.8% 26th	86.4 15th
Slider	1.7%	85.5	26.4% 2nd	28.4% 2nd	.233 14th	.316 20th	.301 11th	.532 23rd	.216 20th	42.0% 3rd	10.0% 11th	88.6 8th
Whole mix, by usage			21.0% 3rd	26.5% 10th	.245 24th	.315 26th	.314 22nd	.508 28th	.193 30th	37.8% 27th	6.8% 30th	87.4 26th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Max Fried's; every other column is TBR's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is TBR's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Ryan Pepiot Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/26	SDP [ 1 ]	TBR [ 4 ]	+120	7	6	75	3	2	3	0	1	1	Dylan Cease (R)
4/20	TBR [ 0 ]	NYY [ 4 ]	+146	8	6	96	7	1	6	2	3	3	Max Fried (L)
4/15	TBR [ 4 ]	BOS [ 7 ]	-130	9	6	102	8	2	9	2	6	6	Walker Buehler (R)
4/9	TBR [ 5 ]	LAA [ 4 ]	-142	7.5	5	91	5	3	6	3	3	3	Yusei Kikuchi (L)
4/2	TBR [ 2 ]	PIT [ 4 ]	-102	7	5	88	3	3	5	1	2	2	Paul Skenes (R)
Averages:					5.6	90.4	5.2	2.2	5.8	1.6	3	3

Max Fried Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/27	NYY [ 11 ]	TOR [ 2 ]	-198	8.5	6	101	3	2	5	0	0	1	Kevin Gausman (R)
4/20	TBR [ 0 ]	NYY [ 4 ]	-174	8	7.67	102	2	2	2	0	0	0	Ryan Pepiot (R)
4/15	NYY [ 4 ]	KCR [ 2 ]	-190	8.5	6.67	94	7	2	5	1	2	2	Michael Wacha (R)
4/9	DET [ 3 ]	NYY [ 4 ]	-148	7	7	97	11	0	5	0	0	0	Jack Flaherty (R)
4/4	PIT [ 4 ]	NYY [ 9 ]	-166	7.5	5.67	98	6	1	6	1	1	1	Mitch Keller (R)
Averages:					6.6	98.4	5.8	1.4	4.6	0.4	0.6	0.8

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

TBR Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/29	4/30	5/1	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Mason Englert	·	3.0 (53)	·	1	3.0	53	4	0	5	0
Eric Orze	1.0 (19)	·	1.1 (19)	2	2.1	38	1	0	5	1
Hunter Bigge ⚠	·	1.0 (9)	1.0 (22)	2	2.0	31	1	1	2	0
Manuel Rodriguez	1.0 (17)	·	·	1	1.0	17	2	0	1	0
Mason Montgomery	·	·	1.0 (25)	1	1.0	25	2	1	1	1
Team Totals (5 arms used):				7	9.1	164	10	2	14	2

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

NYY Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/29	4/30	5/1	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Ian Hamilton	2.0 (15)	·	·	1	2.0	15	3	0	0	0
Fernando Cruz	·	1.2 (17)	·	1	1.2	17	4	0	0	0
Devin Williams	·	1.0 (12)	·	1	1.0	12	1	1	0	0
Mark Leiter	·	1.0 (17)	·	1	1.0	17	2	0	2	0
Tim Hill	·	1.0 (23)	·	1	1.0	23	0	2	0	1
Tyler Matzek	1.0 (21)	·	·	1	1.0	21	1	2	1	1
Team Totals (6 arms used):				6	7.2	105	11	5	3	2

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

Notable Trends

The Yankees are 73.3% (11-4) on the moneyline as a home fav

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Yankees (Home)

The Yankees are 59.4% (19-13) on the moneyline

The Yankees are 73.3% (11-4) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Yankees are 53.3% (16-14-2) to the under

The Yankees are 53.3% (8-7) to the under as a home fav

The Yankees are 57.1% (16-12) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Yankees are 66.7% (8-4) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Yankees are 57.7% (15-11-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Yankees are 58.3% (7-5) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Rays (Away)

The Rays are 43.8% (14-18) on the moneyline

The Rays are 50% (4-4) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Rays are 60% (18-12-2) to the under

The Rays are 62.5% (5-3) to the under as an away dog

The Rays are 37% (10-17) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Rays are 50% (4-4) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Rays are 56% (14-11-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Rays are 62.5% (5-3) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
04/20/25 2025	Yankees Max Fried (L)	4	@	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	0	-174	8.0	-4	U 4 -4.0
04/19/25 2025	Yankees Carlos Carrasco (R)	8	@	Rays Shane Baz (R)	10 F/10	+106	8.5	+2	O 18 +9.5
04/18/25 2025	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	1	@	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	0	-118	8.0	-1	U 1 -7.0
04/17/25 2025	Yankees Will Warren (R)	6	@	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	3	-108	9.0	-3	P 9 0.0
07/22/24 2024	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	9	vs.	Rays Zack Littell (R)	1	-168	8.5	-8	O 10 +1.5
07/21/24 2024	Yankees Marcus Stroman (R)	4	vs.	Rays Shane Baz (R)	6	-148	9.0	+2	O 10 +1.0
07/20/24 2024	Yankees Nestor Cortes (L)	1	vs.	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	9	-166	8.5	+8	O 10 +1.5

Yankees as Home (3 games)		4.7	-	-	5.3	-160	8.7	+0.7	O 10.0 +1.3

All Games Avg (7 games)		4.7	-	-	4.1	-136	8.5	-0.6	O 8.9 +0.4

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 0 – 3 Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Tampa Bay Rays", home_team: "New York Yankees", game_date: "2025-05-02" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report TBNo report NYYNo report

Notes

Rays

Yankees

Situational Factor(s)

Rays

Yankees

Filters

Schedules

Rays Schedule Follow global filters

Yankees Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Yankees (Home)

Rays (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 0 – 3
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees