MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 1 – 3
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs

Padres: 7-0 (100.0%) | Randy Vasquez (R): 1-0 (100.0%)

Cubs: 5-4 (55.6%) | Shota Imanaga (L): 1-1 (50.0%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Padres

+140

+1.5 (-163)

o2.5 (-143)

6.5

Cubs

-165

-1.5 (+137)

o3.5 (-128)

Open

Padres

+142

+1.5 (-163)

o2.5 (-143)

6.5

Cubs

-166

-1.5 (+137)

o3.5 (-128)

Odds Full MLB odds board

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report SDNo report CHCNo report

Notes

Padres

Baller System(s)

First game of a road, non-divisional series, on at least a two game winning streak

Cubs

Nothing active

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Padres

R. Vasquez	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Cubs

S. Imanaga	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Padres Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/06/25 2025	Padres Kyle Hart (L)	-	@	Cubs Ben Brown (R)	-	+120	7.5
04/05/25 2025	Padres Nick Pivetta (R)	-	@	Cubs Matthew Boyd (L)	-	-102	6.5
04/04/25 2025	Padres Randy Vasquez (R)	-	@	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	-	+144	7.0
04/02/25 2025	Padres Dylan Cease (R)	5	vs.	Guardians Ben Lively (R)	2	-190	7.5
04/01/25 2025	Padres Michael King (R)	7	vs.	Guardians Logan Allen (L)	0	-174	7.5
03/31/25 2025	Padres Kyle Hart (L)	7	vs.	Guardians Luis Ortiz (R)	2	-130	7.5
03/30/25 2025	Padres Nick Pivetta (R)	5	vs.	Braves AJ Smith-Shawver (R)	0	-130	8.0
03/29/25 2025	Padres Randy Vasquez (R)	1	vs.	Braves Spencer Schwellenbach (R)	0	+125	8.0
03/28/25 2025	Padres Dylan Cease (R)	4	vs.	Braves Reynaldo Lopez (R)	3	-135	7.0
03/27/25 2025	Padres Michael King (R)	7	vs.	Braves Chris Sale (L)	4	+102	6.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
10/11/24 2024	Padres Yu Darvish (R)	0	@	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	2	+122	8.0
10/09/24 2024	Padres Dylan Cease (R)	0	vs.	Dodgers Ryan Brasier (R)	8	-142	7.5
10/08/24 2024	Padres Michael King (R)	6	vs.	Dodgers Walker Buehler (R)	5	-154	7.5

All Games Avg (7 games this season)		5.1	-	-	1.6	-128	7.4

Cubs Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/06/25 2025	Cubs Ben Brown (R)	-	vs.	Padres Kyle Hart (L)	-	-142	7.5
04/05/25 2025	Cubs Matthew Boyd (L)	-	vs.	Padres Nick Pivetta (R)	-	-116	6.5
04/04/25 2025	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	-	vs.	Padres Randy Vasquez (R)	-	-172	7.0
04/02/25 2025	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	10	@	Athletics Jeffrey Springs (L)	2	+102	8.5
04/01/25 2025	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	7	@	Athletics Luis Severino (R)	4	-132	8.0
03/31/25 2025	Cubs Ben Brown (R)	18	@	Athletics Joey Estes (R)	3	-142	8.5
03/30/25 2025	Cubs Matthew Boyd (L)	6	@	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	10	-104	9.0
03/29/25 2025	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	4	@	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	3	+100	9.0
03/28/25 2025	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	1	@	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	8	+120	9.0
03/27/25 2025	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	10	@	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	6	+108	8.5
03/19/25 2025	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	3	vs.	Dodgers Roki Sasaki (R)	6	+118	7.5
03/18/25 2025	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	1	vs.	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	4	+130	8.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/29/24 2024	Cubs Caleb Kilian (R)	0	vs.	Reds Hunter Greene (R)	3 F/10	-102	7.0

All Games Avg (9 games this season)		6.7	-	-	5.1	+100	8.5

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Randy Vasquez's mix vs. CHC bats

Randy Vasquez's pitches			CHC hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Cutter	24.9%	90.2	23.2% 22nd	26.0% 14th	.292 8th	.317 26th	.353 14th	.573 13th	.256 10th	39.6% 17th	9.9% 12th	88.3 17th
4-Seam Fastball	21.0%	93.5	20.8% 14th	23.0% 11th	.238 25th	.347 6th	.354 11th	.673 4th	.326 6th	50.0% 7th	13.1% 6th	92.1 8th
Sinker	19.0%	93.1	13.7% 14th	26.9% 26th	.267 26th	.331 11th	.367 2nd	.534 9th	.203 7th	39.7% 29th	7.5% 11th	88.7 26th
Sweeper	13.1%	82.1	29.2% 9th	26.4% 6th	.190 26th	.303 17th	.268 15th	.492 23rd	.189 24th	33.1% 17th	6.6% 25th	86.8 11th
Curveball	12.8%	81.2	30.4% 14th	25.5% 3rd	.240 7th	.351 5th	.306 5th	.633 2nd	.282 3rd	36.5% 19th	12.4% 2nd	87.2 20th
Changeup	6.9%	86.9	29.8% 12th	35.1% 21st	.240 10th	.325 9th	.301 5th	.540 4th	.215 4th	36.8% 6th	8.6% 7th	87.2 9th
Slider	2.1%	85.8	33.2% 16th	29.8% 5th	.212 26th	.295 30th	.278 27th	.502 28th	.207 23rd	32.8% 30th	7.7% 24th	85.5 30th
Whole mix, by usage			23.3% 14th	26.2% 14th	.251 21st	.329 10th	.334 6th	.580 8th	.251 6th	40.2% 20th	9.9% 8th	88.7 16th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Randy Vasquez's; every other column is CHC's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is CHC's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Shota Imanaga's mix vs. SDP bats

Shota Imanaga's pitches			SDP hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	49.5%	90.9	20.6% 11th	24.8% 24th	.258 10th	.339 16th	.358 7th	.611 21st	.272 19th	48.8% 14th	10.8% 21st	91.0 18th
Split-Finger	30.5%	83.0	32.3% 7th	38.0% 26th	.235 6th	.324 13th	.282 6th	.529 10th	.205 12th	44.1% 4th	8.8% 8th	88.9 3rd
Sweeper	16.7%	80.4	28.7% 6th	33.2% 28th	.211 14th	.275 29th	.263 18th	.492 23rd	.217 17th	30.2% 21st	7.4% 21st	86.0 15th
Curveball	1.5%	71.6	28.6% 10th	28.5% 17th	.270 2nd	.363 1st	.306 5th	.579 10th	.216 17th	43.1% 3rd	8.0% 15th	88.6 9th
Sinker	1.3%	88.3	12.3% 6th	25.4% 19th	.315 2nd	.351 2nd	.358 7th	.505 14th	.154 24th	45.1% 17th	6.0% 22nd	89.5 14th
Slider	0.6%	81.7	30.9% 5th	32.7% 22nd	.246 5th	.339 2nd	.320 2nd	.576 10th	.237 15th	39.2% 13th	9.0% 15th	88.1 13th
Whole mix, by usage			25.6% 9th	30.3% 26th	.244 7th	.324 16th	.318 7th	.564 15th	.240 15th	44.1% 6th	9.5% 16th	89.5 13th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Shota Imanaga's; every other column is SDP's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is SDP's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Randy Vasquez Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
3/29	SDP [ 1 ]	ATL [ 0 ]	+125	8	6	92	3	4	4	0	0	0	Spencer Schwellenbach (R)
9/28	ARI [ 0 ]	SDP [ 5 ]	+184	9	6	96	4	1	1	0	0	0	Eduardo Rodriguez (L)
8/31	TBR [ 11 ]	SDP [ 4 ]	+102	7.5	4.33	93	3	4	11	1	9	9	Shane Baz (R)
8/26	STL [ 4 ]	SDP [ 7 ]	+102	9	6	91	2	2	6	0	2	2	Kyle Gibson (R)
8/8	PIT [ 6 ]	SDP [ 7 ]	-110	8.5	5.67	85	3	1	6	0	3	3	Luis Ortiz (R)
Averages:					5.6	91.4	3	2.4	5.6	0.2	2.8	2.8

Shota Imanaga Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
3/29	ARI [ 3 ]	CHC [ 4 ]	+100	9	7	91	4	2	3	0	1	1	Brandon Pfaadt (R)
3/18	LAD [ 4 ]	CHC [ 1 ]	+130	8.5	4	69	2	4	0	0	0	0	Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)
9/22	CHC [ 5 ]	WSN [ 0 ]	-215	7.5	7	94	4	0	6	0	0	0	Jake Irvin (R)
9/16	CHC [ 9 ]	ATH [ 2 ]	-198	8	6	99	11	3	5	1	2	2	Joey Estes (R)
9/10	LAD [ 3 ]	CHC [ 6 ]	+128	8	7	89	4	0	7	3	3	3	Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)
Averages:					6.2	88.4	5	1.8	4.2	0.8	1.2	1.2

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

SDP Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/1	4/2	4/3	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Jason Adam	1.1 (21)	·	·	1	1.1	21	2	0	0	0
Adrian Morejon	·	1.0 (14)	·	1	1.0	14	0	0	3	1
Jeremiah Estrada	1.0 (9)	·	·	1	1.0	9	0	0	0	0
Omar Cruz	1.0 (13)	·	·	1	1.0	13	1	0	0	0
Robert Suarez	·	1.0 (12)	·	1	1.0	12	1	0	0	0
Wandy Peralta	·	0.2 (8)	·	1	0.2	8	1	0	1	0
Yuki Matsui	0.2 (20)	·	·	1	0.2	20	2	2	0	0
Team Totals (7 arms used):				7	6.2	97	7	2	4	1

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

CHC Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/1	4/2	4/3	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Brad Keller	·	1.0 (17)	·	1	1.0	17	0	1	0	0
Eli Morgan	·	1.0 (13)	·	1	1.0	13	0	1	1	0
Nate Pearson	·	1.0 (12)	·	1	1.0	12	1	0	0	0
Porter Hodge	1.0 (14)	·	·	1	1.0	14	0	1	0	0
Ryan Pressly	1.0 (11)	·	·	1	1.0	11	0	0	1	0
Julian Merryweather	0.1 (4)	·	·	1	0.1	4	0	0	0	0
Team Totals (6 arms used):				6	5.1	71	1	3	2	0

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

Notable Trends

The Padres are 87.5% (7-1) on the moneyline

The Padres are 71.4% (5-2-1) to the under

The Padres are 87.5% (7-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Padres are 71.4% (5-2-1) (L30 days) to the under

View All Records

Cubs (Home)

The Cubs are 60% (6-4) on the moneyline

The Cubs are 100% (1-0) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Cubs are 66.7% (6-3-1) to the over

The Cubs are 100% (1-0) to the under as a home fav

The Cubs are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Cubs are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Cubs are 66.7% (6-3-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Cubs are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Padres (Away)

The Padres are 87.5% (7-1) on the moneyline

The Padres are 0% (0-1) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Padres are 71.4% (5-2-1) to the under

The Padres are 100% (1-0) to the under as an away dog

The Padres are 87.5% (7-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Padres are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Padres are 71.4% (5-2-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Padres are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
05/08/24 2024	Cubs Hayden Wesneski (R)	0	vs.	Padres Dylan Cease (R)	3	+114	7.5	+3	U 3 -4.5
05/07/24 2024	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	3	vs.	Padres Randy Vasquez (R)	2	-166	9.0	-1	U 5 -4.0
05/06/24 2024	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	3	vs.	Padres Yu Darvish (R)	6	-116	7.5	+3	O 9 +1.5
04/10/24 2024	Cubs Kyle Hendricks (R)	2	@	Padres Dylan Cease (R)	10	+134	8.0	+8	O 12 +4.0
04/09/24 2024	Cubs Ben Brown (R)	5	@	Padres Joe Musgrove (R)	1	+120	8.0	-4	U 6 -2.0
04/08/24 2024	Cubs Javier Assad (R)	8	@	Padres Yu Darvish (R)	9	+116	7.5	+1	O 17 +9.5

Cubs as Home (3 games)		2.0	-	-	3.7	-119	8.0	+1.7	U 5.7 -2.3

All Games Avg (6 games)		3.5	-	-	5.2	+102	7.9	+1.7	O 8.7 +0.8

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 1 – 3 San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "San Diego Padres", home_team: "Chicago Cubs", game_date: "2025-04-04" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report SDNo report CHCNo report

Notes

Padres

Baller System(s)

Cubs

Padres

Cubs

Filters

Schedules

Padres Schedule Follow global filters

Cubs Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Cubs (Home)

Padres (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 1 – 3
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs