Tag: wnba

Sky Continue to Struggle – But They Can’t Get Worse, Right?

Posted on by Caleb Bets

The Chicago Sky have opened the year 0-3, a start we have seen from teams in every season, yet have lost these three games by an average margin of defeat of 25 points. In this three game span, they have posted these key metrics:
– 84.3 ORTG, 114.1 DRTG, -29.8 NETRTG
– 26.0 Player Impact Estimate
– 0.83 AST/TOV Ratio, 24.1 TOV%

If Chicago’s Offensive and Defensive ratings continue, then they would have the worst ORTG since the 2000 season and the worst NETRTG of all time. The most baffling number here is their PIE, or Player Impact Estimate; Typically an individual stat, yet when used for teams is used to show what percentage of key game events (PTS, REB, AST, etc.) that the team achieved. In short, Chicago is achieving just a quarter of the total game events per game. The lowest mark of team PIE last season was 43.7. Even the Mystics, who started last season 0-12, had a PIE of 41 during that losing span.

In the offseason, Chicago fired HC Witherspoon and promoted assistant coach Tyler Marsh to fill in the job. They sent Chennedy Carter to China for attitude issues, yet traded their No.3 Pick in the draft to Washington (Sonia Citron) for Ariel Atkins. However, Atkins currently has the lowest usage rate of all 11 CHI players to touch the floor this season, despite being third in minutes played. She still is contributing nearly a quarter of the team’s points when she is on the floor, as this problem is stemming from Marsh not designing any plays for her.

Marsh has acknowledged Atkins in multiple post game conferences as well:
Ahead of Game 2: “Yea we always want [Atkins] to be aggressive. Finding her shot. Me as a staff can do a better job at creating some better opportunities for her.”
Ahead of Game 3: “I gotta do better at getting our post players the ball to help open up our shooters… We got to find ways to allow Ariel to operate.”

Nothing has changed.

Angel Reese is currently leading this team in turnover rate, with just shy of 5 turnovers per game – which is just a quarter of their total turnovers. This is oddly enough less her fault than you’d think, as Marsh has attempted to have the CHI offense operate through her. Her passing numbers has rose by game, with 6 potentials in the first two, then cracking double digits in the most recent game vs Sparks.

Your guess for this scheme is as good as mine. Angel has a lot of great qualities as a player, notably due to her hustle and ability to run the floor, yet playmaking is not one of them. Sky welcomed back Vandersloot in their offseason package as well, who led the WNBA in assists per game for 7 seasons in her career, along with boasting the highest APG average (10.0) in a single season of all time. Her passing volume has fallen each game.

No matter the quality of Chicago’s locker room, their struggles will continue to persist as long as they have a coach staff that refuses to play into the best qualities of their players.

Lynx Poised to Pounce in Rd 1, Game 1 of WNBA Playoffs

Posted on by Katagiri


Click here for the WNBA Matchup Page for this game


Date: Sunday, September 22, 2024
Matchup: Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx
Time: TBA


The Minnesota Lynx are set to open the first round of the WNBA playoffs against the Phoenix Mercury on September 22, 2024. At the time of writing (with one meaningless game left for each team) the Lynx are locked into the 2-seed with a 30-9 record (77%) and the Mercury are locked into the 7-seed with a 19-20 record (49%). The Lynx had a soft open as 6.5 point favorites, a line that quickly moved to 9 and now sits around 10 at most books, reflecting the early support for the Lynx. The total sits at 159.

The Lynx have been a dominant team all season long, outperforming their pre-season expectations (30 wins with a game to go vs. their pre-season win-total, which was set at 16.5). Many people have likened their style of play to that of the Celtics in the NBA – a team that spreads the floor with good shooting while locking down on the defensive end. Indeed, the Lynx were the most efficient team from beyond the arc this year in the WNBA while ranking second in 3pt% allowed to their opponents – many will refer to this as a “math” challenge for anyone going up against the Lynx. Their offensive rating is 103.8, good for 4th in the league, and the Lynx particularly excelled on the defensive side of the ball, stifling opponents with a league-best 95.1 defensive rating. The Lynx have also thrived at home where they boast a net-rating of +11.2 (vs. +6.9 on the road – still great!).

The Mercury come into the playoffs right around where their pre-season expectations were projected (19 wins with a game to go vs. their pre-season win-total, which was set at 18.5). While the Mercury have played well enough to coast into the 7th seed without any doubts down the stretch, they have been far from dominant this season. As their slightly sub-.500 record would suggest, they have struggled with consistency. They are bottom-half in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and while they play fine enough at home (-1 net-rating), they have had particular struggles on the road where their net-rating drops to -7.9.

This game sets up to be a clash between a team in the Lynx that plays hyper-efficiently on both sides of the ball, and a team that is almost the opposite, inefficient in both areas. The Mercury do have veteran leadership in Diana Taurasi (15.1 ppg) and Brittney Griner (18 ppg), and have benefitted from the addition of scorer Kahleah Copper (21.6 ppg) and guard Natasha Cloud (11.7 ppg, 7 apg). While the talent in their starting lineup was enough to get them to the playoffs, it’s going to be a tough challenge, now, against a young and hungry Lynx squad, lead by Napheesa Collier (20.4 ppg) and Kayla McBride (15 ppg) with a roster that is much more balanced overall.

Although we’re not getting the best of the number, the play is still to take the Lynx -10 as I make a fair number on this game closer to Lynx -13. You could consider a slightly smaller bet on this as backing double-digit favorites in the WNBA is not a profitable angle, but the discrepancy in talent is just too great and I’d be comfortable laying .5 units at the current price.

Money Baller Betting Report | Friday, September 13

Posted on by Austin Wang

Hello Ballers – welcome to the Money Baller Betting Report.

You’ll see the format is slightly different today. Instead of writing out MLB trends for every single game, I am only listing ones that I would typically list in the featured trends section, and will incorporate the WNBA. This will be more sustainable and lead to most consistent and quicker posting as we continue to scale our website. Let me know your feedback!

Yesterday’s ML parlay did not hit as both sides failed to win. The Bills came through in dominant fashion, whether you bet them straight up or included them in a teaser.


Money Baller Betting Report – MLB Betting Trends:


Check out our MLB Matchup Pages

  • 2 Baller System active on Cardinals: (1) First game of a road, non-divisional series, on at least a two game winning streak, (2) Back small road underdog with better record
  • Cardinals: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘2’ as an underdog
    • We think there is value on the Cardinals ML +115 (consensus).





  • Cubs: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’
  • Cubs: 6-1 ML in last 7 games vs. LHP.
    • We are on the Cubs ML -142 (FanDuel).


  • Phillies: 11-1-2 F5 ML and 11-3 ML as home favorites when Aaron Nola starts.
  • In L30 days, Phillies: 6-0 ML vs. LHP.
  • Marlins: 4-21 ML as road underdogs vs. LHP.
  • Besides fading the Marlins on this trend, Edward Cabrera has been brutal this season with a 4.88 ERA and 4.86 FIP.
    • We are targeting the Nationals ML -144 (FanDuel) at a 0.5u size.


  • Astros: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’
  • Astros: 7-0 when Yusei Kikuchi starts.
    • If you are looking for a parlay piece, we think the Astros should be considered.



Money Baller Betting Report – WNBA Betting Trends:


Check out our WNBA Matchup Pages

  • Mystics: 25-9-2 1H ATS this season
  • Dream: 3-14-1 1H ATS at home
  • THREE Baller systems active on the Mystics
    • Needless to say, we are going Mystics 1H +2, one of the best bets in the WNBA.


  • Wings opponents have gone 30-6-1 to over on their Team Total this season (17-2 to the TT over when Wings are at home).
  • Wings are on the second game of a back-to-back, where we see overs are prevalent. Teams on the 2nd game of a B2B are 48-32-3 O/U since 2018.
    • I tackled this game and split my bet two ways: Storm Team Total Over 90 and Storm/Wings Over 173.

WNBA Betting Trends and Insights – Sunday, August 18

Posted on by Austin Wang

Today’s WNBA Betting trends. The featured plays went 1-2 yesterday. Mystics 1H and Aces ATS were a loss, but the Sky came through with a clutch cover to prevent a disaster.

Click here for our WNBA Matchup pages



Connecticut Sun @ Atlanta Dream

  • Dream: 0-8 1H ATS as home underdogs.
  • Dream: 1-7 Team Total O/U as home underdogs.


Our base model favors the Sun, and there are multiple Baller Systems active that also support playing on the Sun. Given the Dream’s poor performance in the first half as home underdogs, we’re backing the Sun 1H -4.5 (-110, Caesars) today.

The above screenshot is included in our matchup pages for Baller Access members. Click here for plans



Los Angeles Sparks @ Las Vegas Aces

  • Aces: 3-11 1H O/U as home favorites.
  • Teams on the second game of B2B are 14-3 O/U this season.


Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back, a situation that historically favors the over. We’ve seen defenses struggle with fatigue in these spots, leading to higher scoring. The total has already steamed higher on Sunday morning, and we think LA/LVA over 171.5 is worth considering.



Seattle Storm @ Indiana Fever

  • Fever: 18-9 O/U.


The Fever have consistently hit the over, while the Storm have been more of an under team. With a Baller System active on the under, we’re opting to pass on this game.


Chicago Sky @ Phoenix Mercury

  • Sky: 6-2 1H ATS as road underdogs.
  • Teams on the second game of B2B are 14-3 O/U this season.


Two angles stand out here. First, the Sky are on the second game of a back-to-back, a scenario that has been a strong indicator for the over. Additionally, there’s a Baller System active on the over for rematches within a week where the total has increased from the previous game. The last game closed at 162.5 and went well under; yet, this game’s total being set at 166 is telling. Chennedy Carter’s presence will be a boost for the Sky’s offense, but expect their defense to struggle in the second game of a B2B. We think the CHI/PHX over 167 is an interesting look.

Furthermore, there are two Baller Systems active on the Sky. Our observation is that the Sky have been a much better first-half team. They are 6-2 1H ATS as road underdogs, and being on the second game of a B2B, we like the Sky 1H +4.5 (-110, Caesars) before fatigue sets in during the second half.

WNBA Betting Trends and Insights – Saturday, August 17

Posted on by Austin Wang

Today’s WNBA Betting trends. The featured plays went 3-0 yesterday (Storm 1H -4.5, Fever/Mercury over 174, and Sun Team Total Over 83.5) with ease!

Click here for our WNBA Matchup pages



Minnesota Lynx @ Washington Mystics

  • Mystics: 18-6-2 1H ATS (8-2 1H ATS as home underdogs).


Betting on the Mystics 1H has become an auto-bet, as they’ve consistently covered this all season. Remarkably, they’ve done this largely without two of their best players, Shakira Austin and Brittany Sykes. With both of them healthy, we expect their first half successes to continue and we’re backing WAS 1H +3 (-115, DraftKings).



New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces

  • Aces: 6-1 ATS with more rest than their opponent
  • Aces: 3-10 1H O/U as home favorites.

The above screenshot on matchup pages for our Baller Access members. Click here to join!

The situational factors strongly favor the Aces in today’s marquee matchup. Despite a relatively shaky season for the defending champions, they’ve thrived in situations where they’re more rested than their opponents. Additionally, backing the home team in a clash of elite teams has historically been a profitable angle. We love the Aces -3 (-110, DraftKings), and would even take them up to -3.5.



Chicago Sky @ Los Angeles Sparks

  • Sky: 8-17 1H O/U.

The above screenshot on matchup pages for our Baller Access members. Click here to join!

From a trend perspective, not much stands out, but we have a Baller System active on the Sky, and our model/algorithm also favors the Sky to cover. If Chennedy Carter is ruled in (she was a late scratch last game due to illness), we like the Sky up to -3. Carter was recently vocal about being ranked below Caitlyn Clark in the latest ESPN player rankings, which should add some extra motivation to her game.

WNBA Betting Trends and Insights – Friday, August 16

Posted on by Austin Wang

Today’s WNBA Betting trends. I’m experimenting with something new today, so let me know if you have any feedback!

Click here for our WNBA Matchup pages


Seattle Storm @ Atlanta Dream

  • Dream: 0-7 Team Total O/U as home underdogs.
  • Dream: 0-7 1H ATS as home underdogs.
  • 2 Baller Systems active to play on the Storm.


With the trends and 1H splits in mind, the Storm 1H -4.5 appears to be an appealing pick today. Additionally, there are 2 Baller Systems active supporting the Storm, and I expect a strong surge from this team as they finish off the season.


Phoenix Mercury @ Indiana Fever

  • Fever: 5-0 O/U as home favorites.
  • Fever: 5-1 O/U with more rest than opponents.
  • 1 Baller System active on the over.


With 1 Baller System active on the over, the Fever/Mercury over 174 is an angle we like today. The Fever have been an over team all season, and the Mercury are on the second game of a back-to-back, a situation where we’ve seen defense struggle. Teams in the second game of a back-to-back are 13-3 to the over this season.


Connecticut Sun @ Dallas Wings

  • Wings: 6-1 O/U as home underdogs.
  • Wings’ opponents are 21-3-1 Team Total O/U.
  • Sun: 6-2 Team Total O/U as road favorites.


That 21-3-1 Team Total Over stat is incredible. While we’re not thrilled that DiJonai Carrington is sitting for the Sun, they still might not have trouble putting up points against the Wings’ abysmal defense.

We Want The Money: 2024 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Preview

Posted on by Austin Wang
SHARI L. GROSS, STAR TRIBUNE


On Tuesday evening, the Minnesota Lynx and the New York Liberty will face off in the Commissioner’s Cup championship at UBS Arena in Elmont, New York. The stakes are high, as the players compete not only for the championship trophy but also for a substantial cash prize of $500,000. This is especially significant for these women athletes, who often face financial challenges due to their current salaries.

“We want the money,” Lynx star Napheesa Collier said after the Lynx had won their sixth consecutive game Saturday. “It will be competitive, even if you take the money out of it. But you put that money on the line and people will be playing hard.”

Lynx face Liberty for WNBA in-season title: ‘We want the money’ (startribune.com)


The Liberty are the defending champions, having won last season’s in-season tournament, and they will be aiming to go back-to-back. The Lynx, meanwhile, have been a pleasant surprise this season, with a 13-3 record and leading the league in Net Rating (+12.9). Their offense has been solid, ranking 3rd in Offensive Rating, but it’s their defense that truly stands out, as they hold the top spot in Defensive Rating.

The two teams have met once this season, with Minnesota coming out on top with an 84-67 victory a month ago in Minneapolis. Will the Liberty be able to exact their revenge? Let’s break it down using our matchup pages.

Stats, Trends, and Systems

The league’s #1 ranked offense (Liberty) faces off against the league’s #1 ranked defense (Lynx). Napheesa Collier, a leading MVP candidate, is one of four players averaging a double-double (20.9 ppg, 10.4 rpg).


Both teams are excellent shooting teams, but the Lynx have the advantage here, leading the league in 3-point shooting at 40%. Kayla McBride is the main reason – she is averaging 46.4% from behind the arc on 7 attempts per game. Their corner 3 FG% is an incredible 43.59%. The Liberty have been susceptible to the corner 3, ranking 9th in the league in FG% allowed.

  • Lynx backers have been rolling around in their dough. They are a league-best 12-4 ATS this season, exceeding all market expectations. They are 5-1 ATS on the road and 6-1 ATS as an underdog.
  • Meanwhile, the Liberty are 7-11 ATS this season, while only 1-8 ATS at home. They’ve been winning games, but they have not been covering.
  • 1H unders: Lynx are 10-5-1 to the 1H under this season, and 8-3-1 to the 1H under off a win.


We have 2 Baller Systems active on the Lynx. One system backs a road team who won their previous in-season head-to-head matchup at home and their opponent played their previous game on the road. This system has gone 112-82-2 (57.7%) ATS since the 2018 season.

Another system backs a road team off a win with 2 or more days of rest and a rest advantage over their opponent. This system has gone 70-54-4 (56.5%) ATS since the 2018 season, 38-22-3 (63.3%) ATS when they are an underdog.

Editor’s Note: one additional Baller System was added on the morning of Tuesday, June 25, 10:32 AM CT


Current season performance, active Baller Systems, and ATS trends all point to value on: Lynx +5. Our models make the line Liberty -2.5. Although they are the “hosting team”, they are not playing in their home arena due to scheduling conflicts at the Barclay’s Center. Even though they will have their fans in attendance, they still don’t have your typical homecourt advantage.

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