WNBA and MLB: Money Baller Report – Sat, Aug 9

Published: Saturday, Aug 9, 2:45 PM CT

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Chicago Sky @ Indiana Fever

Situational Edge: Double-digit, in-season revenge for the Sky.

Baller Systems active on Chicago:
• Back road dog vs. opponent who was a dog in their previous game
• Fade team off a 2-game losing streak when their last game was at home

Chicago’s in a bounce-back spot here — 0-3 in their season series, motivated by earlier blowout loss, and supported by two active systems. With both Angel Reese and Caitlyn Clark out, the allure of this rivalry has simmered down, and we expect the Fever may not be as focused after dominating this season long matchup. Hoping to score their first head-to-head victory this season, we like the Sky to keep it close and cover the spread.

Play: Sky +10.5




Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals, slight underdogs in today’s matchup, have a Baller Matchup Rating of ‘8’. This is the biggest advantage of the card today. In addition, they are 13-3 ML as home underdogs vs. right-handed pitchers. See below for a comparison of the two pitchers – Colin Rea’s FIP and SIERA indicate he has been the beneficiary of good luck, while Andre Palliente is due for some positive regression.

Play: Cardinals ML -104

Sky Continue to Struggle – But They Can’t Get Worse, Right?

The Chicago Sky have opened the year 0-3, a start we have seen from teams in every season, yet have lost these three games by an average margin of defeat of 25 points. In this three game span, they have posted these key metrics:
– 84.3 ORTG, 114.1 DRTG, -29.8 NETRTG
– 26.0 Player Impact Estimate
– 0.83 AST/TOV Ratio, 24.1 TOV%

If Chicago’s Offensive and Defensive ratings continue, then they would have the worst ORTG since the 2000 season and the worst NETRTG of all time. The most baffling number here is their PIE, or Player Impact Estimate; Typically an individual stat, yet when used for teams is used to show what percentage of key game events (PTS, REB, AST, etc.) that the team achieved. In short, Chicago is achieving just a quarter of the total game events per game. The lowest mark of team PIE last season was 43.7. Even the Mystics, who started last season 0-12, had a PIE of 41 during that losing span.

In the offseason, Chicago fired HC Witherspoon and promoted assistant coach Tyler Marsh to fill in the job. They sent Chennedy Carter to China for attitude issues, yet traded their No.3 Pick in the draft to Washington (Sonia Citron) for Ariel Atkins. However, Atkins currently has the lowest usage rate of all 11 CHI players to touch the floor this season, despite being third in minutes played. She still is contributing nearly a quarter of the team’s points when she is on the floor, as this problem is stemming from Marsh not designing any plays for her.

Marsh has acknowledged Atkins in multiple post game conferences as well:
Ahead of Game 2: “Yea we always want [Atkins] to be aggressive. Finding her shot. Me as a staff can do a better job at creating some better opportunities for her.”
Ahead of Game 3: “I gotta do better at getting our post players the ball to help open up our shooters… We got to find ways to allow Ariel to operate.”

Nothing has changed.

Angel Reese is currently leading this team in turnover rate, with just shy of 5 turnovers per game – which is just a quarter of their total turnovers. This is oddly enough less her fault than you’d think, as Marsh has attempted to have the CHI offense operate through her. Her passing numbers has rose by game, with 6 potentials in the first two, then cracking double digits in the most recent game vs Sparks.

Your guess for this scheme is as good as mine. Angel has a lot of great qualities as a player, notably due to her hustle and ability to run the floor, yet playmaking is not one of them. Sky welcomed back Vandersloot in their offseason package as well, who led the WNBA in assists per game for 7 seasons in her career, along with boasting the highest APG average (10.0) in a single season of all time. Her passing volume has fallen each game.

No matter the quality of Chicago’s locker room, their struggles will continue to persist as long as they have a coach staff that refuses to play into the best qualities of their players.