MLB Game Matchups & Analysis

12:35 p.m.
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Tigers: 65-64 (50.4%) | Jackson Jobe (R): 1-1 (50.0%) | Market Rating: +1.0% (-104)

Pirates: 60-69 (46.5%) | Paul Skenes (R): 10-16 (38.5%) | Market Rating: +0.2% (-101)

Line: -149

Total: 8

Open: -147

Open: 8

Injury Report Aug 19, 6:41 AM ET DET14 Out PIT4 Out

DET

Player	PA/G · G	Status	Reason
Bailey Horn	10 G ’25	Out	Horn (elbow) will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Brant Hurter	21 G	Out	The Tigers transferred Hurter (back) to Triple-A Toledo on Saturday to begin a rehab assignment, Emily Waldon of Baseball America reports.
Burch Smith	13 G	Out	Smith is being evaluated after exiting a rehab appearance with Triple-A Toledo on Thursday with right shoulder/lat discomfort, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
Jack Flaherty	19 G	Out	The Tigers announced Friday that Flaherty (forearm) has increased the intensity and distance of his throwing progression, MLB.com reports.
James Outman	2.7 PA/G	Out	The Tigers placed Outman on the 7-day concussion injured list Thursday.
Justin Verlander	1 G	Out	Verlander (hamstring/hip) threw off the front of the bullpen mound Wednesday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
Kerry Carpenter	3.1 PA/G	Out	Carpenter (foot) will pause his rehab program after suffering a setback, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
Matt Vierling	3.4 PA/G	Out	The Tigers placed Vierling on the 10-day injured list Friday, retroactive to Thursday, due to a left adductor strain.
Parker Meadows	3.3 PA/G	Out	Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Meadows (forearm) has yet to resume hitting and is without a timeline to return from the 60-day injured list, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Reese Olson	13 G ’25	Out	The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
Riley Greene	4.2 PA/G	Out	Greene exited Tuesday's game versus Cleveland in the third inning as a result of right hamstring tightness.
Trey Sweeney	3.0 PA/G ’25	Out	Sweeney will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery this week, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
Wenceel Perez	3.3 PA/G	Out	Perez (orbital) was pulled off his rehab assignment Tuesday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
Will Vest	27 G	Out	Vest (elbow) underwent hip surgery Tuesday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.

PIT

Player	PA/G · G	Status	Reason
Endy Rodriguez	3.5 PA/G	Out	Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Rodriguez is gathering a second opinion on his left hip injury, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Konnor Griffin	4.2 PA/G	Out	Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Griffin has been cleared to transition out of the splint he had been wearing on his injured left ring finger, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Mitch Keller	22 G	Out	The Pirates placed Keller on the 60-day injured list Monday due to a right arm teres major muscle injury.
Ryan O'Hearn	4.1 PA/G	Out	Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that O'Hearn (quadriceps) has been cleared to play catch and take some swings in the batting cage, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.

PA/G = plate appearances per game played this season (hitters). G = games pitched this season (pitchers). ’25 = last season's figure (player hasn't appeared yet this season). Players under 2.0 PA/G and fewer than 3 G pitched in both seasons are listed under “Not in rotation.”

Notes

No active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Model output not available — Jackson Jobe has only 2 starts this season (3 needed to qualify).

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Records

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Jackson Jobe Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
8/14	[ 5 ]	[ 9 ]	-132	8.5	3.67	4	1	9	2	6	6	Sean Newcomb (L)
8/8	[ 0 ]	[ 8 ]	-116	8	5	4	1	1	0	0	0	Landen Roupp (R)
5/28	[ 4 ]	[ 3 ]	-110	8	4.67	4	3	7	1	3	3	Landen Roupp (R)
5/23	[ 1 ]	[ 3 ]	-120	9	5	3	2	4	0	2	2	Slade Cecconi (R)
5/18	[ 2 ]	[ 3 ]	-100	8.5	6	5	2	6	0	2	2	Jose Berrios (R)
Averages:					4.87	4	1.8	5.4	0.6	2.6	2.6

Paul Skenes Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
8/11	[ 2 ]	[ 0 ]	-110	7	5	4	1	5	1	1	2	Eury Perez (R)
8/5	[ 4 ]	[ 2 ]	+115	7	5	6	4	2	0	3	3	Kyle Harrison (L)
7/31	[ 8 ]	[ 7 ]	-124	8	4	7	4	7	2	5	5	Hunter Greene (R)
7/25	[ 0 ]	[ 11 ]	-122	7.5	5.33	11	2	6	0	5	5	Shota Imanaga (L)
7/19	[ 1 ]	[ 7 ]	-103	7	7	8	2	7	0	1	1	Joey Cantillo (L)
Averages:					5.27	7.2	2.6	5.4	0.6	3	3.2

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

DET Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	8/16	8/17	8/18	App	IP	K	BB	H	ER
Jacob Waguespack	2.0	·	·	1	2.0	1	0	1	1
Drew Sommers	·	1.2	·	1	1.2	3	0	0	0
Kenley Jansen	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	2	0	0	0
Tanner Rainey	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	2	2	0	0
Tyler Holton	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	1	2	3	3
Kyle Finnegan	·	0.2	·	1	0.2	1	1	1	0
Team Totals (6 arms used):				6	6.4	10	5	5	4

PIT Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	8/16	8/17	8/18	App	IP	K	BB	H	ER
Hunter Barco	3.0	·	·	1	3.0	4	1	2	3
Camilo Doval ⚠	1.0	1.0	·	2	2.0	1	2	1	0
Kirby Yates ⚠	1.0	1.0	·	2	2.0	3	0	0	0
Isaac Mattson	·	2.0	·	1	2.0	1	2	2	1
Gregory Soto	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	3	0	2	0
Mason Montgomery	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	2	0	0	0
Yohan Ramirez	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	0	3	2	3
Team Totals (7 arms used):				9	12.0	14	8	9	7

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

Schedules

Tigers Schedule

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
08/22/26	2026	Tigers	-	away	Royals	-	-	-
08/21/26	2026	Tigers	-	away	Royals	-	-	-
08/19/26	2026	Tigers Jackson Jobe (R)	-	away	Pirates Paul Skenes (R)	-	+128	8.0
08/18/26	2026	Tigers Keider Montero (R)	0	away	Pirates Braxton Ashcraft (R)	0	+135	8.0
08/17/26	2026	Tigers Framber Valdez (L)	8	away	Pirates Carmen Mlodzinski (R)	5	-108	8.5
08/16/26	2026	Tigers Drew Anderson (R)	5	home	White Sox Sean Burke (R)	7	-115	8.0
08/15/26	2026	Tigers Troy Melton (R)	3	home	White Sox Anthony Kay (L)	4	-140	7.5
08/14/26	2026	Tigers Jackson Jobe (R)	5	home	White Sox Sean Newcomb (L)	9	-132	8.5
08/13/26	2026	Tigers Keider Montero (R)	3	home	Guardians Parker Messick (L)	0	-101	8.0
08/12/26	2026	Tigers Framber Valdez (L)	4	home	Guardians Foster Griffin (L)	6	-126	8.0
08/11/26	2026	Tigers Drew Anderson (R)	6	home	Guardians Tanner Bibee (R)	4	-139	8.5
08/09/26	2026	Tigers Troy Melton (R)	3	away	Giants Logan Webb (R)	1	-128	7.5
08/08/26	2026	Tigers Jackson Jobe (R)	8	away	Giants Landen Roupp (R)	0	-116	8.0
Away Games Avg (4 games)			4.8	-	-	1.5	-54	8.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			4.5	-	-	3.6	-97	8.1

Pirates Schedule

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
08/22/26	2026	Pirates	-	away	Dodgers	-	-	-
08/21/26	2026	Pirates	-	away	Dodgers	-	-	-
08/19/26	2026	Pirates Paul Skenes (R)	-	home	Tigers Jackson Jobe (R)	-	-149	8.0
08/18/26	2026	Pirates Braxton Ashcraft (R)	0	home	Tigers Keider Montero (R)	0	-154	8.0
08/17/26	2026	Pirates Carmen Mlodzinski (R)	5	home	Tigers Framber Valdez (L)	8	-105	8.5
08/16/26	2026	Pirates Lake Bachar (R)	8	home	Red Sox Patrick Sandoval (L)	3	-104	8.0
08/15/26	2026	Pirates Jared Jones (R)	0	home	Red Sox Sonny Gray (R)	4	+106	7.5
08/14/26	2026	Pirates Bubba Chandler (R)	8	home	Red Sox Jake Bennett (L)	4	+105	8.0
08/13/26	2026	Pirates Braxton Ashcraft (R)	13	away	Marlins Tyler Phillips (R)	1	-121	8.0
08/12/26	2026	Pirates Carmen Mlodzinski (R)	2	away	Marlins Janson Junk (R)	8	+104	8.0
08/11/26	2026	Pirates Paul Skenes (R)	0	away	Marlins Eury Perez (R)	2	-110	7.0
08/09/26	2026	Pirates Jared Jones (R)	1	home	Mets Sean Manaea (L)	11	-145	8.0
08/08/26	2026	Pirates Bubba Chandler (R)	9	home	Mets Robert Stock (R)	0	-116	9.0
Home Games Avg (7 games)			4.4	-	-	4.3	-59	8.1
All Games Avg (10 games)			4.6	-	-	4.1	-54	8.0

Notable Trends

The Pirates are 28.6% (8-20) (L30 days) on the moneyline

View All Records

Pirates (Home)

The Pirates are 46.5% (60-69) on the moneyline

The Pirates are 53.2% (25-22) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Pirates are 58.2% (71-51-4) to the over/under

The Pirates are 69.6% (32-14-1) to the over/under as a home fav

The Pirates are 28.6% (8-20) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Pirates are 42.9% (3-4) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Pirates are 50% (13-13-1) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Pirates are 66.7% (4-2-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

Tigers (Away)

The Tigers are 50.4% (65-64) on the moneyline

The Tigers are 45.2% (14-17) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Tigers are 47.5% (56-62-6) to the over/under

The Tigers are 51.7% (15-14-2) to the over/under as an away dog

The Tigers are 59.3% (16-11) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Tigers are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Tigers are 65.2% (15-8-2) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Tigers are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7)

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/18/26	2026	Pirates Braxton Ashcraft (R)	0	Home	Tigers Keider Montero (R)	0	-154	8.0	0	0
08/17/26	2026	Pirates Carmen Mlodzinski (R)	5	Home	Tigers Framber Valdez (L)	8	-105	8.5	+3	13
07/23/25	2025	Pirates Bailey Falter (L)	6	Home	Tigers Troy Melton (R)	1	+116	9.0	-5	7
07/22/25	2025	Pirates Mitch Keller (R)	8	Home	Tigers Casey Mize (R)	5	+110	8.0	-3	13
07/21/25	2025	Pirates Paul Skenes (R)	3	Home	Tigers Jack Flaherty (R)	0	-125	7.0	-3	3
06/19/25	2025	Pirates Andrew Heaney (R)	2	Away	Tigers Tarik Skubal (L)	9	-0	-	+7	11
06/19/25	2025	Pirates Paul Skenes (L)	8	Away	Tigers Tyler Holton (L)	4	-108	7.0	-4	12
Pirates as Home (5 games)			4.4	-	-	2.8	-31.6	8.1	-1.6	7.2
All Games Avg (7 games)			4.6	-	-	3.9	-38.0	6.8	-0.7	8.4