WNBA Game Matchups & Analysis

7:30 p.m.
Toronto Tempo @ Washington Mystics

Tempo: 10-23 (30.3%) | Market Rating: -4.52

Mystics: 20-14 (58.8%) | Market Rating: -0.99

Line: -9.5

Total: 170.0

Open: -9

Open: 170.5

Injury Report Aug 19, 6:47 AM ET TOR3 Out WASNo key injuries

TOR

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Julie Allemand	29.1	Out	Allemand (thigh) is out for Tuesday's game versus Indiana.
Maria Conde	27.0	Out	Conde (calf) is out for Tuesday's game versus Indiana.
Nyara Sabally	23.9	Out	Sabally (calf) is in a walking boot and will be re-evaluated in "a few weeks," Chelsea Leite of TSN reports.

Not in rotation (under 3 MPG): Adja Kane, Charlise Dunn, Saffron Shiels, Yvonne Ejim, Zaay Green

WAS

Not in rotation (under 3 MPG): Darianna Littlepage-Buggs

MPG = this season's average. ’25 = last season's average (player hasn't appeared yet this season). Players under 3 MPG in both seasons are listed under “Not in rotation.”

Notes

Tempo

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

Double digit, in season revenge

Baller System(s)

Back-to-Back Fatigue

Complacent Offense at Home

Mystics

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Mystics

55.63% probability

Total Recommendation

Over

54.58% probability

View All Algorithms

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Loading team comparison stats...

Records

Loading records...

Schedules

Tempo Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/23/26	2026	Tempo	-	home	Aces	-	0.0	-	-	-
08/21/26	2026	Tempo	-	home	Fire	-	0.0	-	-	-
08/19/26	2026	Tempo	-	away	Mystics	-	+9.5	170.0	-	-
08/18/26	2026	Tempo		home	Fever		+10.5	190.5	0	0
08/12/26	2026	Tempo	88	away	Wings	94	+9.0	184.0	+6	182
08/10/26	2026	Tempo	95	away	Dream	107	+15.0	187.5	+12	202
08/06/26	2026	Tempo	83	away	Fire	97	+2.5	187.0	+14	180
08/04/26	2026	Tempo	81	away	Valkyries	92	+11.5	169.5	+11	173
08/02/26	2026	Tempo	79	away	Valkyries	96	+13.5	164.5	+17	175
07/30/26	2026	Tempo	72	home	Lynx	104	+12.5	186.0	+32	176
07/28/26	2026	Tempo	93	away	Lynx	100	+16.5	186.0	+7	193
07/20/26	2026	Tempo	83	home	Aces	109	+10.5	182.5	+26	192
07/17/26	2026	Tempo	92	home	Dream	111	+9.5	181.0	+19	203
Away Games Avg (6 games)			86.5	-	-	97.7	+11.3	179.8	+11.2	184.2
All Games Avg (10 games)			76.6	-	-	91.0	+11.1	181.9	+14.4	167.6

Mystics Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/23/26	2026	Mystics	-	away	Fire	-	0.0	-	-	-
08/21/26	2026	Mystics	-	home	Lynx	-	0.0	-	-	-
08/19/26	2026	Mystics	-	home	Tempo	-	-9.5	170.0	-	-
08/15/26	2026	Mystics	80	home	Sparks	70	-6.5	173.0	-10	150
08/13/26	2026	Mystics	76	away	Aces	83	+6.0	170.5	+7	159
08/11/26	2026	Mystics	76	away	Aces	86	+6.5	171.0	+10	162
08/09/26	2026	Mystics	95	home	Mercury	75	-1.5	169.0	-20	170
08/07/26	2026	Mystics	79	home	Dream	74	+5.5	171.0	-5	153
08/05/26	2026	Mystics	96	home	Wings	92	+2.0	167.5	-4	188
07/31/26	2026	Mystics	81	home	Wings	75	+3.5	167.5	-6	156
07/28/26	2026	Mystics	92	home	Sun	84	-6.5	161.0	-8	176
07/22/26	2026	Mystics	100	home	Aces	99	+6.0	164.5	-1	199
07/20/26	2026	Mystics	90	away	Valkyries	82	+8.5	147.0	-8	172
Home Games Avg (7 games)			89.0	-	-	81.3	+0.4	167.6	-7.7	170.3
All Games Avg (10 games)			86.5	-	-	82.0	+2.4	166.2	-4.5	168.5

Notable Trends

The Mystics are 75% (6-2) to the over/under as a home fav

The Mystics are 81.8% (9-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mystics are 100% (7-0) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Tempo are 81.3% (13-3) to the over/under away

The Tempo are 72% (18-7) to the over/under as a dog

The Tempo are 81.3% (13-3) to the over/under as an away dog

View All Records

Mystics (Home)

The Mystics are 60.6% (20-13-1) against the spread

The Mystics are 64.7% (11-6-1) against the spread at home

The Mystics are 41.7% (5-7) against the spread as a fav

The Mystics are 37.5% (3-5) against the spread as a home fav

The Mystics are 47.1% (16-18) to the over/under

The Mystics are 55.6% (10-8) to the over/under at home

The Mystics are 58.3% (7-5) to the over/under as a fav

The Mystics are 75% (6-2) to the over/under as a home fav

The Mystics are 81.8% (9-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mystics are 100% (7-0) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Mystics are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Mystics are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Mystics are 45.5% (5-6) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Mystics are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the over/under at home

The Mystics are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as a fav

The Mystics are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

Tempo (Away)

The Tempo are 51.5% (17-16) against the spread

The Tempo are 68.8% (11-5) against the spread away

The Tempo are 52% (13-12) against the spread as a dog

The Tempo are 68.8% (11-5) against the spread as an away dog

The Tempo are 63.6% (21-12) to the over/under

The Tempo are 81.3% (13-3) to the over/under away

The Tempo are 72% (18-7) to the over/under as a dog

The Tempo are 81.3% (13-3) to the over/under as an away dog

The Tempo are 50% (4-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Tempo are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Tempo are 50% (4-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Tempo are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Tempo are 62.5% (5-3) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Tempo are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the over/under away

The Tempo are 62.5% (5-3) (L30 days) to the over/under as a dog

The Tempo are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/14/26	2026	Mystics	79	Away	Tempo	62	-1.5	171.5	-17	141
06/12/26	2026	Mystics	86	Home	Tempo	85	-1.5	170.5	-1	171
05/08/26	2026	Mystics	68	Away	Tempo	65	+1.0	161.0	-3	133
Mystics as Home (1 games)			86.0	-	-	85.0	-1.5	170.5	-1.0	171.0
All Games Avg (3 games)			77.7	-	-	70.7	-0.7	167.7	-7.0	148.3

Algorithm	Recommendation
Basic + Advanced Analysis Simple 4-feature logreg. Medium Confidence: 9-7 (56.3%)	Neutral
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors. High Confidence: 10-6 (62.5%)	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials. High Confidence: 12-16 (42.9%)	Neutral
SOS Adjusted Regression Ratio + ridge adjusted ratings, 9 context features, 2 spread features. All z-scored differentials. High Confidence: 25-33-1 (43.1%) Medium Confidence: 15-14 (51.7%)	Mystics (2x)
Cover Summary	Mystics
Paint Stat Focus Paint-focused total predictions. Medium Confidence: 37-27 (57.8%)	Over
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate Medium Confidence: 29-31 (48.3%)	Neutral
Total Summary	Over
OVERALL	Mystics \| Over

WNBA Game Matchups & Analysis

7:30 p.m. Toronto Tempo @ Washington Mystics window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Toronto Tempo", home_team: "Washington Mystics", game_date: null };

Injury Report Aug 19, 6:47 AM ET TOR3 Out WASNo key injuries

Notes

Tempo

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Mystics

Situational Factor(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Schedules

Tempo Schedule

Mystics Schedule

Notable Trends

View All Records

Mystics (Home)

Tempo (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

7:30 p.m.
Toronto Tempo @ Washington Mystics