WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

8:00 p.m.
Golden State Valkyries @ Atlanta Dream

Valkyries: 38-14 (73.1%) | Market Rating: +4.33

Dream: 36-15 (70.6%) | Market Rating: +4.44 | Home Court: +2.5 pts

Line: -3.5

Total: 152.5

Open: -3.5

Open: 152.5

Injury Report as of Oct 21, 1:47 AM ET GSV1 Out ATL1 Out

GSV

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Iliana Rupert	24.0 ’25	Out	Rupert is pregnant, and the Valkyries have filed for a replacement contract ahead of the 2026 season, Alexa Philippou of ESPN.com reports Thursday.

ATL

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Brionna Jones	16.9	Out	Jones will miss the remainder of the season after sustaining a left leg injury against the Sun on Aug. 13, Annie Costabile of The Athletic reports.

Not in rotation (under 3 MPG): Matilde Villa

MPG = this season's average. ’25 = last season's average (player hasn't appeared yet this season). Players under 3 MPG in both seasons are listed under “Not in rotation.”

Notes

Valkyries

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Double digit, in season revenge

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Zig Zag Theory: back team off a loss as a favorite

Playoff-specific: Play over when a road team or underdog is off a loss as a home favorite

Dream

Situational Factor(s)

1st game home off long road trip (at least three games)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model only runs during the regular season.

Schedules

Valkyries Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/26	2026	Valkyries	-	home	Dream	-	0.0	-	-	-
10/24/26	2026	Valkyries	-	away	Dream	-	0.0	-	-	-
10/22/26	2026	Valkyries	-	away	Dream	-	+3.5	152.5	-	-
10/19/26	2026	Valkyries	65	home	Dream	79	-1.5	153.5	+14	144 (-9.5)
10/17/26	2026	Valkyries	68	home	Dream	64	-2.5	153.5	-4	132 (-21.5)
10/09/26	2026	Valkyries	87	away	Aces	77	+5.0	156.5	-10	164 (+7.5)
10/07/26	2026	Valkyries	83	home	Aces	81	-1.5	156.5	-2	164 (+7.5)
10/04/26	2026	Valkyries	71	home	Aces	60	-1.0	159.0	-11	131 (-28.0)
10/02/26	2026	Valkyries	77	home	Wings	73	-8.5	159.5	-4	150 (-9.5)
09/30/26	2026	Valkyries	100	away	Wings	108	-4.5	157.5	+8	208 (+50.5)
09/27/26	2026	Valkyries	104	home	Wings	80	-7.5	154.5	-24	184 (+29.5)
09/24/26	2026	Valkyries	76	away	Sparks	75	-11.0	158.5	-1	151 (-7.5)
09/22/26	2026	Valkyries	82	away	Fire	90	-14.5	158.0	+8	172 (+14.0)
Away Games Avg (4 games)			86.3	-	-	87.5	-6.3	157.6	+1.3	173.8 (+16.1)
All Games Avg (10 games)			81.3	-	-	78.7	-4.8	156.7	-2.6	160.0 (+3.3)

Dream Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/26	2026	Dream	-	away	Valkyries	-	0.0	-	-	-
10/24/26	2026	Dream	-	home	Valkyries	-	0.0	-	-	-
10/22/26	2026	Dream	-	home	Valkyries	-	-3.5	152.5	-	-
10/19/26	2026	Dream	79	away	Valkyries	65	+1.5	153.5	-14	144 (-9.5)
10/17/26	2026	Dream	64	away	Valkyries	68	+2.5	153.5	+4	132 (-21.5)
10/09/26	2026	Dream	85	away	Liberty	83	+4.0	170.5	-2	168 (-2.5)
10/07/26	2026	Dream	101	home	Liberty	98	-2.0	170.5	-3	199 (+28.5)
10/04/26	2026	Dream	92	home	Liberty	82	-4.5	173.0	-10	174 (+1.0)
09/30/26	2026	Dream	93	away	Mystics	75	-3.5	167.0	-18	168 (+1.0)
09/27/26	2026	Dream	92	home	Mystics	77	-7.5	164.0	-15	169 (+5.0)
09/23/26	2026	Dream	83	away	Liberty	65	-4.5	174.0	-18	148 (-26.0)
09/21/26	2026	Dream	95	away	Liberty	84	-1.5	177.5	-11	179 (+1.5)
09/19/26	2026	Dream	106	home	Sky	81	-15.0	177.0	-25	187 (+10.0)
Home Games Avg (4 games)			97.8	-	-	84.5	-7.3	171.1	-13.3	182.3 (+11.1)
All Games Avg (10 games)			89.0	-	-	77.8	-3.1	168.1	-11.2	166.8 (-1.3)

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Dream are 73.9% (17-6) to the over/under as a home fav

The Dream are 90% (9-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Dream are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Dream are 100% (7-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Dream are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Dream are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the over/under at home

The Dream are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as a fav

The Dream are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

The Valkyries are 72.7% (8-3) against the spread as an away dog

The Valkyries are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Valkyries are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over/under away

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Dream (Home)

The Dream are 51% (26-25) against the spread

The Dream are 48% (12-13) against the spread at home

The Dream are 47.7% (21-23) against the spread as a fav

The Dream are 43.5% (10-13) against the spread as a home fav

The Dream are 52.9% (27-24) to the over/under

The Dream are 68% (17-8) to the over/under at home

The Dream are 61.4% (27-17) to the over/under as a fav

The Dream are 73.9% (17-6) to the over/under as a home fav

The Dream are 90% (9-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Dream are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Dream are 100% (7-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Dream are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Dream are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Dream are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the over/under at home

The Dream are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as a fav

The Dream are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

Valkyries (Away)

The Valkyries are 59.6% (31-21) against the spread

The Valkyries are 54.2% (13-11) against the spread away

The Valkyries are 62.5% (10-6) against the spread as a dog

The Valkyries are 72.7% (8-3) against the spread as an away dog

The Valkyries are 40.4% (21-31) to the over/under

The Valkyries are 37.5% (9-15) to the over/under away

The Valkyries are 37.5% (6-10) to the over/under as a dog

The Valkyries are 45.5% (5-6) to the over/under as an away dog

The Valkyries are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) against the spread

The Valkyries are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Valkyries are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Valkyries are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Valkyries are 45.5% (5-6) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Valkyries are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over/under away

The Valkyries are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over/under as a dog

The Valkyries are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/19/26	2026	Dream	79	Away	Valkyries	65	+1.5	153.5	-14	144
10/17/26	2026	Dream	64	Away	Valkyries	68	+2.5	153.5	+4	132
07/04/26	2026	Dream	83	Home	Valkyries	88	-4.5	163.5	+5	171
06/26/26	2026	Dream	75	Away	Valkyries	78	-1.5	164.0	+3	153
06/24/26	2026	Dream	66	Away	Valkyries	77	-1.5	166.0	+11	143
08/17/25	2025	Dream	79	Away	Valkyries	63	-4.5	152.0	-16	142
07/29/25	2025	Dream	75	Home	Valkyries	77	-8.5	155.5	+2	152
07/07/25	2025	Dream	90	Home	Valkyries	81	-7.5	157.5	-9	171
Dream as Home (3 games)			82.7	-	-	82.0	-6.8	158.8	-0.7	164.7
All Games Avg (8 games)			76.4	-	-	74.6	-3.0	158.2	-1.8	151.0

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

8:00 p.m. Golden State Valkyries @ Atlanta Dream window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Golden State Valkyries", home_team: "Atlanta Dream", game_date: null };

Injury Report as of Oct 21, 1:47 AM ET GSV1 Out ATL1 Out

Notes

Valkyries

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Dream

Situational Factor(s)

Schedules

Valkyries Schedule

Dream Schedule

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On / Off Court

Next Player Up

Records

Notable Trends

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Dream (Home)

Valkyries (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

8:00 p.m.
Golden State Valkyries @ Atlanta Dream