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Updated: 09/28/26 9:58 p.m. ET

NFL Game Matchups & Analysis

Thu, 9/24, Final: 35 – 14
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Falcons: 0-2 (0.0%) - NFC South | Market Rating: -2.64
Packers: 1-1 (50.0%) - NFC North | Market Rating: +1.37
Line: -4.5
Total: 43.0
Open: -6.5
Open: 46
Notes
Falcons
Situational Factor(s)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Short rest: 3 days (TNF)
Baller System(s)
Back road team off loss more than a TD Historical ATS/OU RecordL5 Years: 41 - 26 - 2 (61.2%)L365 Days: 6 - 7 - 0 (46.2%)Current Season: 4 - 4 - 0 (50.0%)
Betting on underdogs coming off a 30+ point loss when they were also a dog. Historical ATS/OU RecordL5 Years: 27 - 16 - 1 (62.8%)L365 Days: 6 - 3 - 0 (66.7%)Current Season: 1 - 0 - 0 (100.0%)
Fade OT and short rest angle Historical ATS/OU RecordL5 Years: 8 - 5 - 0 (61.5%)L365 Days: 4 - 1 - 0 (80.0%)Current Season: 2 - 0 - 0 (100.0%)
Packers
Situational Factor(s)
Coming off an Overtime game
First game home off 2+ game road trip
Short rest: 3 days (TNF)
Baller System(s)
Overtime Hangover Unders Historical ATS/OU RecordL5 Years: 99 - 65 - 0 (60.4%)L365 Days: 17 - 17 - 0 (50.0%)Current Season: 3 - 3 - 0 (50.0%)
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
No algorithm data available for this game.
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Records
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Schedules
Falcons Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
10/11/26 2026 Falcons - home Ravens - - - - - - +4.0 48.0 - -
10/05/26 2026 Falcons - away Saints - - - - - - +2.5 48.5 - -
09/24/26 2026 Falcons - away Packers - - - - - - +4.5 43.0 - -
09/20/26 2026 Falcons 3 home Panthers 34 302 157 145 0 2 +2.5 43.5 +31 37 (-6.5)
09/13/26 2026 Falcons 13 away Steelers 20 263 120 143 0 2 +6.5 40.5 +7 33 (-7.5)
01/04/26 2025 Falcons 19 home Saints 17 229 49 180 1 0 -4.0 43.5 -2 36 (-7.5)
12/29/25 2025 Falcons 27 home Rams 24 345 219 126 3 0 +7.5 49.0 -3 51 (+2.0)
12/21/25 2025 Falcons 26 away Cardinals 19 349 152 197 1 1 -3.0 48.0 -7 45 (-3.0)
12/11/25 2025 Falcons 29 away Buccaneers 28 484 111 373 1 3 +6.0 43.5 -1 57 (+13.5)
12/07/25 2025 Falcons 9 home Seahawks 37 282 120 162 1 1 +7.0 44.5 +28 46 (+1.5)
11/30/25 2025 Falcons 24 away Jets 27 401 167 234 0 1 -3.0 38.5 +3 51 (+12.5)
11/23/25 2025 Falcons 24 away Saints 10 320 121 199 1 1 +2.0 40.5 -14 34 (-6.5)
11/16/25 2025 Falcons 27 home Panthers 30 348 125 223 0 3 -4.0 42.0 +3 57 (+15.0)
Away Games Avg (5 games) 23.2 - - 20.8 363 134 229 0.6 1.6 +1.7 42.2 -2.4 44.0 (+1.8)
All Games Avg (10 games) 20.1 - - 24.6 332 134 198 0.8 1.4 +1.8 43.4 +4.5 44.7 (+1.4)
Packers Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
10/11/26 2026 Packers - home Bears - - - - - - -3.0 49.0 - -
10/04/26 2026 Packers - away Buccaneers - - - - - - -3.5 40.5 - -
09/24/26 2026 Packers - home Falcons - - - - - - -4.5 43.0 - -
09/20/26 2026 Packers 20 away Jets 17 208 63 145 0 5 -3.0 44.0 -3 37 (-7.0)
09/13/26 2026 Packers 22 away Vikings 39 453 66 387 1 2 +2.0 45.5 +17 61 (+15.5)
01/10/26 2025 Packers 27 away Bears 31 422 99 323 2 4 -1.5 46.5 +4 58 (+11.5)
01/04/26 2025 Packers 3 away Vikings 16 162 128 34 0 1 +13.0 37.5 +13 19 (-18.5)
12/27/25 2025 Packers 24 home Ravens 41 375 79 296 0 1 -2.5 37.5 +17 65 (+27.5)
12/20/25 2025 Packers 16 away Bears 22 390 192 198 0 3 +1.5 44.5 +6 38 (-6.5)
12/14/25 2025 Packers 26 away Broncos 34 391 115 276 0 0 -2.5 43.5 +8 60 (+16.5)
12/07/25 2025 Packers 28 home Bears 21 351 117 234 1 0 -6.5 44.5 -7 49 (+4.5)
11/27/25 2025 Packers 31 away Lions 24 359 125 234 0 2 +2.5 47.5 -7 55 (+7.5)
11/23/25 2025 Packers 23 home Vikings 6 292 146 146 2 0 -6.5 41.5 -17 29 (-12.5)
Home Games Avg (3 games) 25.0 - - 22.7 339 114 225 1.0 0.3 -5.2 41.2 -2.3 47.7 (+6.5)
All Games Avg (10 games) 22.0 - - 25.1 340 113 227 0.6 1.8 -0.4 43.3 +3.1 47.1 (+3.9)
Notable Trends
Notable trends will be listed here starting Week 4.
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
09/17/23 2023 Packers 24 Away Falcons 25 448 211 237 0 0 +3.0 40.0 +1 49
All Games Avg (1 games) 24.0 - - 25.0 448 211 237 0.0 0.0 +3.0 40.0 +1.0 49.0

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