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Dream @ Liberty [ Liberty -13 / 156 ]

Dream | 15-25 (37.5%)
Liberty | 32-9 (78%)

Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model will start on May 26, 2025 when we've gathered more team data.

Dream Situational Notes
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Liberty Situational Notes
Double digit, in season revenge
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Dream Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
9/24	NYL	ATL +12.5 NYL -12.5	156	ATL	-	-	-
9/22	NYL	ATL +13 NYL -13	156	ATL	-	-	-
9/19	NYL [ 67 ]	ATL +5.5 NYL -5.5	157	ATL [ 78 ]	+11	+16.5	-12
9/17	ATL [ 86 ]	ATL -9 CHI +9	154	CHI [ 70 ]	+16	+7	+2
9/15	WAS [ 73 ]	ATL -1 WAS +1	154	ATL [ 76 ]	+3	+2	-5
9/13	ATL [ 69 ]	ATL -4.5 WAS +4.5	155	WAS [ 72 ]	-3	-7.5	-14
9/10	ATL [ 64 ]	ATL +5.5 MIN -5.5	155	MIN [ 76 ]	-12	-6.5	-15
9/8	IND [ 104 ]	ATL +5.5 IND -5.5	170	ATL [ 100 ]	-4	+1.5	+34
9/6	ATL [ 107 ]	ATL -2.5 DAL +2.5	170.5	DAL [ 96 ]	+11	+8.5	+32.5
9/3	PHO [ 74 ]	ATL +2 PHO -2	160.5	ATL [ 66 ]	-8	-6	-20.5

Liberty Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
9/24	NYL	NYL -12.5 ATL +12.5	156	ATL	-	-	-
9/22	NYL	NYL -13 ATL +13	156	ATL	-	-	-
9/19	NYL [ 67 ]	NYL -5.5 ATL +5.5	157	ATL [ 78 ]	-11	-16.5	-12
9/17	WAS [ 71 ]	NYL -10 WAS +10	161.5	NYL [ 87 ]	+16	+6	-3.5
9/15	NYL [ 79 ]	NYL -5.5 MIN +5.5	160	MIN [ 88 ]	-9	-14.5	+7
9/12	DAL [ 67 ]	NYL -10.5 DAL +10.5	177.5	NYL [ 99 ]	+32	+21.5	-11.5
9/10	DAL [ 91 ]	NYL -10.5 DAL +10.5	176	NYL [ 105 ]	+14	+3.5	+20
9/8	NYL [ 75 ]	NYL -9.5 LVA +9.5	168	LVA [ 71 ]	+4	-5.5	-22
9/5	NYL [ 77 ]	NYL -8 SEA +8	165	SEA [ 70 ]	+7	-1	-18
8/30	SEA [ 85 ]	NYL -3.5 SEA +3.5	162.5	NYL [ 98 ]	+13	+9.5	+20.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
8/23	ATL	- -	-	NYL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7/13	NYL	- -	-	ATL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6/29	ATL	- -	-	NYL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6/17	NYL	- -	-	ATL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9/24	NYL	NYL -12.5 ATL +12.5	156	ATL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9/22	NYL	NYL -13 ATL +13	156	ATL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9/19	NYL [ 67 ]	NYL -5.5 ATL +5.5	157	ATL [ 78 ]	-11	-16.5	-12	87.4	92	107.1	-15.1	145
6/30	NYL [ 81 ]	NYL -15.5 ATL +15.5	168	ATL [ 75 ]	+6	-9.5	-12	91	106.8	98.9	7.9	156
6/23	ATL [ 75 ]	NYL -9 ATL +9	165.5	NYL [ 96 ]	+21	+12	+5.5	96.3	119.6	93.4	26.2	171
6/6	ATL [ 61 ]	NYL -6.5 ATL +6.5	163.5	NYL [ 78 ]	+17	+10.5	-24.5	91.9	101.8	79.6	22.2	139
7/27	NYL [ 95 ]	NYL -8.5 ATL +8.5	175	ATL [ 84 ]	+11	+2.5	+4	97.3	117.2	103.6	13.6	179

** The first week of the season will include last season's regular games by default.

Efficiency

Dream (40 game/s)		Liberty (39 game/s)
0.38 (8)	Win Percentage	0.79 (1)
0.56 (3)	ATS Win%	0.49 (7)
0.44 (8)	OU%	0.46 (6)
97.68 (11)	Offensive Rating	107.29 (2)
100.99 (6)	Defensive Rating	96.53 (3)
93.8 (11)	Pace	95.62 (7)
1.33 (7)	A/TO Ratio	1.65 (2)

Four Factors

Dream (40 game/s)		Liberty (39 game/s)
45.23 (12)	EFG%	52.34 (2)
48.79 (5)	EFG% Allowed	47.73 (3)
29.34 (2)	FT Rate	25.51 (7)
26.09 (5)	FT Rate Allowed	21.78 (1)
25.36 (3)	OReb%	24.87 (5)
21.7 (4)	OReb% Allowed	21.44 (2)
17.47 (5)	TO Rate	17.42 (4)
17.1 (7)	TO Rate Forced	17.75 (5)

Scoring

Dream (40 game/s)		Liberty (39 game/s)
77 (12)	PPG	85.74 (2)
79.75 (5)	PPG Allowed	76.69 (3)
16 (8)	Pts off TO	15.95 (9)
14.96 (6)	Pts off TO Allowed	14.41 (5)
13.52 (2)	2nd Chance Pts	10.79 (9)
9.29 (3)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	9 (1)
8.48 (10)	Fast Break Pts	12.67 (1)
10.34 (8)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	10.05 (7)

Inside the Arc

Dream (40 game/s)		Liberty (39 game/s)
33.98 (7)	Paint Attempts	31.95 (8)
33.55 (5)	Paint Attempts Allowed	35.9 (11)
48.79 (11)	Paint FG%	56.18 (1)
50.52 (3)	Paint FG% Allowed	49.43 (1)
14.73 (2)	Mid-Range Attempts	7.64 (12)
13.85 (7)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	13.59 (5)
35.65 (8)	Mid-Range FG%	34.56 (10)
38.45 (8)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	39.25 (10)

Three Point Shooting

Dream (40 game/s)		Liberty (39 game/s)
2.95 (6)	Corner 3 Attempts	3.87 (2)
5.7 (10)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	3.62 (1)
32.2 (9)	Corner 3 FG%	37.09 (3)
35.53 (7)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	34.75 (5)
16.2 (10)	ATB3 Attempts	25.03 (1)
14.23 (3)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	15.28 (7)
31.02 (11)	ATB3 FG%	34.94 (5)
32.34 (5)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	31.71 (3)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Dream 1h	12-27-1	2-5-0	2-11-0	4-2-1	4-9-0	--	--	1-9-0	3-5-0
Dream	15-25	4-3	4-9	5-2	2-11	-	-	2-8	3-5
Liberty 1h	23-12-4	11-6-2	1-0-0	10-6-2	1-0-0	2-0-1	1-1-1	8-4-0	4-2-3
Liberty	31-8	15-4	1-0	14-4	1-0	3-0	3-0	9-3	7-2

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Dream 1h	16-20-4	2-5-0	2-10-1	4-3-0	8-2-3	--	--	3-6-1	3-4-1
Dream	22-17-1	3-4-0	5-7-1	5-2-0	9-4-0	--	--	3-7-0	5-3-0
Liberty 1h	16-23-0	6-13-0	1-0-0	8-10-0	1-0-0	1-2-0	1-2-0	5-7-0	3-6-0
Liberty	19-20-0	4-15-0	1-0-0	13-5-0	1-0-0	2-1-0	2-1-0	4-8-0	6-3-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Dream 1h	14-24-2	4-3-0	5-7-1	3-4-0	2-10-1	--	--	4-5-1	1-7-0
Dream	17-22-1	3-3-1	5-8-0	4-3-0	5-8-0	--	--	4-5-1	3-5-0
Liberty 1h	16-23-0	7-12-0	1-0-0	8-10-0	0-1-0	1-2-0	2-1-0	5-7-0	4-5-0
Liberty	18-21-0	9-10-0	1-0-0	8-10-0	0-1-0	2-1-0	3-0-0	4-8-0	5-4-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Dream 1h	17-22-1	3-4-0	4-8-1	4-3-0	6-7-0	--	--	3-7-0	3-5-0
Dream	15-25-0	3-4-0	3-10-0	3-4-0	6-7-0	--	--	3-7-0	2-6-0
Liberty 1h	18-21-0	6-13-0	1-0-0	10-8-0	1-0-0	1-2-0	2-1-0	4-8-0	4-5-0
Liberty	19-20-0	7-12-0	1-0-0	10-8-0	1-0-0	2-1-0	3-0-0	4-8-0	5-4-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Dream 1h	13-25-2	4-2-1	5-7-1	3-4-0	1-12-0	--	--	4-5-1	2-6-0
Dream	15-25-0	3-4-0	4-9-0	4-3-0	4-9-0	--	--	4-6-0	2-6-0
Liberty 1h	19-19-1	11-8-0	1-0-0	7-10-1	0-1-0	1-1-1	2-1-0	6-6-0	4-4-1
Liberty	15-24-0	8-11-0	0-1-0	7-11-0	0-1-0	1-2-0	1-2-0	2-10-0	3-6-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Dream	3-2-0 (60%)	1-2-0 (33.3%)	1-7-0 (12.5%)	6-7-0 (46.2%)	4-1-0 (80%)	4-3-0 (57.1%)	0-0-1 (-)
Liberty	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	1-4-0 (20%)	2-1-0 (66.7%)	4-4-0 (50%)	7-6-0 (53.8%)	8-13-0 (38.1%)