Dream @ Liberty [ Liberty -13 / 156 ]
Dream | 15-25 (37.5%)Liberty | 32-9 (78%)
Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.
Our base model gives the Liberty (-13) a 53.8-33.5% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 156 around 53.1-57.4% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Liberty have a 43.9% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 52.3% chance of going over the total.
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Baller Systems
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Double digit, in season revenge
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 9/24 | NYL | ATL +12.5 NYL -12.5 | 156 | ATL | - | - | - |
| 9/22 | NYL | ATL +13 NYL -13 | 156 | ATL | - | - | - |
| 9/19 | NYL [ 67 ] | ATL +5.5 NYL -5.5 | 157 | ATL [ 78 ] | +11 | +16.5 | -12 |
| 9/17 | ATL [ 86 ] | ATL -9 CHI +9 | 154 | CHI [ 70 ] | +16 | +7 | +2 |
| 9/15 | WAS [ 73 ] | ATL -1 WAS +1 | 154 | ATL [ 76 ] | +3 | +2 | -5 |
| 9/13 | ATL [ 69 ] | ATL -4.5 WAS +4.5 | 155 | WAS [ 72 ] | -3 | -7.5 | -14 |
| 9/10 | ATL [ 64 ] | ATL +5.5 MIN -5.5 | 155 | MIN [ 76 ] | -12 | -6.5 | -15 |
| 9/8 | IND [ 104 ] | ATL +5.5 IND -5.5 | 170 | ATL [ 100 ] | -4 | +1.5 | +34 |
| 9/6 | ATL [ 107 ] | ATL -2.5 DAL +2.5 | 170.5 | DAL [ 96 ] | +11 | +8.5 | +32.5 |
| 9/3 | PHO [ 74 ] | ATL +2 PHO -2 | 160.5 | ATL [ 66 ] | -8 | -6 | -20.5 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 9/24 | NYL | NYL -12.5 ATL +12.5 | 156 | ATL | - | - | - |
| 9/22 | NYL | NYL -13 ATL +13 | 156 | ATL | - | - | - |
| 9/19 | NYL [ 67 ] | NYL -5.5 ATL +5.5 | 157 | ATL [ 78 ] | -11 | -16.5 | -12 |
| 9/17 | WAS [ 71 ] | NYL -10 WAS +10 | 161.5 | NYL [ 87 ] | +16 | +6 | -3.5 |
| 9/15 | NYL [ 79 ] | NYL -5.5 MIN +5.5 | 160 | MIN [ 88 ] | -9 | -14.5 | +7 |
| 9/12 | DAL [ 67 ] | NYL -10.5 DAL +10.5 | 177.5 | NYL [ 99 ] | +32 | +21.5 | -11.5 |
| 9/10 | DAL [ 91 ] | NYL -10.5 DAL +10.5 | 176 | NYL [ 105 ] | +14 | +3.5 | +20 |
| 9/8 | NYL [ 75 ] | NYL -9.5 LVA +9.5 | 168 | LVA [ 71 ] | +4 | -5.5 | -22 |
| 9/5 | NYL [ 77 ] | NYL -8 SEA +8 | 165 | SEA [ 70 ] | +7 | -1 | -18 |
| 8/30 | SEA [ 85 ] | NYL -3.5 SEA +3.5 | 162.5 | NYL [ 98 ] | +13 | +9.5 | +20.5 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | Pace | Ortg | Drtg | Net | Tot | |
| 9/24 | NYL | NYL -12.5 ATL +12.5 | 156 | ATL | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9/22 | NYL | NYL -13 ATL +13 | 156 | ATL | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9/19 | NYL [ 67 ] | NYL -5.5 ATL +5.5 | 157 | ATL [ 78 ] | -11 | -16.5 | -12 | 87.4 | 92 | 107.1 | -15.1 | 145 |
| 6/30 | NYL [ 81 ] | NYL -15.5 ATL +15.5 | 168 | ATL [ 75 ] | +6 | -9.5 | -12 | 91 | 106.8 | 98.9 | 7.9 | 156 |
| 6/23 | ATL [ 75 ] | NYL -9 ATL +9 | 165.5 | NYL [ 96 ] | +21 | +12 | +5.5 | 96.3 | 119.6 | 93.4 | 26.2 | 171 |
| 6/6 | ATL [ 61 ] | NYL -6.5 ATL +6.5 | 163.5 | NYL [ 78 ] | +17 | +10.5 | -24.5 | 91.9 | 101.8 | 79.6 | 22.2 | 139 |
| 7/27 | NYL [ 95 ] | NYL -8.5 ATL +8.5 | 175 | ATL [ 84 ] | +11 | +2.5 | +4 | 97.3 | 117.2 | 103.6 | 13.6 | 179 |
| 6/23 | ATL [ 80 ] | NYL -7.5 ATL +7.5 | 172.5 | NYL [ 110 ] | +30 | +22.5 | +17.5 | 109.4 | 120.7 | 87.8 | 32.9 | 190 |
| 6/13 | NYL [ 79 ] | NYL -10 ATL +10 | 171 | ATL [ 86 ] | -7 | -17 | -6 | 93.7 | 101.2 | 110.2 | -9 | 165 |
| 6/9 | ATL [ 83 ] | NYL -6 ATL +6 | 163.5 | NYL [ 106 ] | +23 | +17 | +25.5 | 103.1 | 123.4 | 96.6 | 26.8 | 189 |
| 8/14 | NYL [ 87 ] | NYL -3 ATL +3 | 160.5 | ATL [ 83 ] | +4 | +1 | +9.5 | 94.5 | 110.5 | 105.4 | 5.1 | 170 |