WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 64 – 68
Atlanta Dream @ Golden State Valkyries

Dream: 35-14 (71.4%) | Market Rating: +4.26

Valkyries: 37-13 (74.0%) | Market Rating: +4.54 | Home Court: +2.4 pts

Line: -2.5

Total: 153.5

Open: -2.5

Open: 153.5

Team totals: Dream 76.5 · Valkyries 78.5 (open 75.5 / 77.5)

Injury Report as of Oct 17, 8:17 PM ET ATL1 Out GSV1 Out1 Questionable

ATL

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Brionna Jones	16.9	Out	Jones will miss the remainder of the season after sustaining a left leg injury against the Sun on Aug. 13, Annie Costabile of The Athletic reports.

Not in rotation (under 3 MPG): Matilde Villa

GSV

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Iliana Rupert	24.0 ’25	Out	Rupert is pregnant, and the Valkyries have filed for a replacement contract ahead of the 2026 season, Alexa Philippou of ESPN.com reports Thursday.
Tiffany Hayes	17.1	Questionable	Hayes exited Saturday's 68-64 Game 1 win over the Dream in the fourth quarter and did not return due to an apparent head injury, finishing with three points (1-12 FG, 1-5 3Pt), six rebounds, four assists, one steal and one block across 24 minutes.

MPG = this season's average. ’25 = last season's average (player hasn't appeared yet this season). Players under 3 MPG in both seasons are listed under “Not in rotation.”

Notes

Dream

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

In season revenge

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Momentum + Revenge

No D on that 3

Valkyries

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Coming off an overtime game

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Delayed Overtime Fade

Fade rusty road team off 4+ days rest

Well-Rested Offense

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model only runs during the regular season.

Schedules

Dream Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/22/26	2026	Dream	-	home	Valkyries	-	0.0	-	-	-
10/19/26	2026	Dream	-	away	Valkyries	-	+2.5	152.5	-	-
10/17/26	2026	Dream	-	away	Valkyries	-	+2.5	153.5	-	-
10/09/26	2026	Dream	85	away	Liberty	83	+4.0	170.5	-2	168 (-2.5)
10/07/26	2026	Dream	101	home	Liberty	98	-2.0	170.5	-3	199 (+28.5)
10/04/26	2026	Dream	92	home	Liberty	82	-4.5	173.0	-10	174 (+1.0)
09/30/26	2026	Dream	93	away	Mystics	75	-3.5	167.0	-18	168 (+1.0)
09/27/26	2026	Dream	92	home	Mystics	77	-7.5	164.0	-15	169 (+5.0)
09/23/26	2026	Dream	83	away	Liberty	65	-4.5	174.0	-18	148 (-26.0)
09/21/26	2026	Dream	95	away	Liberty	84	-1.5	177.5	-11	179 (+1.5)
09/19/26	2026	Dream	106	home	Sky	81	-15.0	177.0	-25	187 (+10.0)
09/17/26	2026	Dream	103	home	Sun	59	-17.5	168.5	-44	162 (-6.5)
08/30/26	2026	Dream	89	home	Lynx	81	+2.5	177.0	-8	170 (-7.0)
Away Games Avg (4 games)			89.0	-	-	76.8	-1.4	172.3	-12.3	165.8 (-6.5)
All Games Avg (10 games)			93.9	-	-	78.5	-5.0	171.9	-15.4	172.4 (+0.5)

Valkyries Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/22/26	2026	Valkyries	-	away	Dream	-	0.0	-	-	-
10/19/26	2026	Valkyries	-	home	Dream	-	-2.5	152.5	-	-
10/17/26	2026	Valkyries	-	home	Dream	-	-2.5	153.5	-	-
10/09/26	2026	Valkyries	87	away	Aces	77	+5.0	156.5	-10	164 (+7.5)
10/07/26	2026	Valkyries	83	home	Aces	81	-1.5	156.5	-2	164 (+7.5)
10/04/26	2026	Valkyries	71	home	Aces	60	-1.0	159.0	-11	131 (-28.0)
10/02/26	2026	Valkyries	77	home	Wings	73	-8.5	159.5	-4	150 (-9.5)
09/30/26	2026	Valkyries	100	away	Wings	108	-4.5	157.5	+8	208 (+50.5)
09/27/26	2026	Valkyries	104	home	Wings	80	-7.5	154.5	-24	184 (+29.5)
09/24/26	2026	Valkyries	76	away	Sparks	75	-11.0	158.5	-1	151 (-7.5)
09/22/26	2026	Valkyries	82	away	Fire	90	-14.5	158.0	+8	172 (+14.0)
09/19/26	2026	Valkyries	70	home	Storm	57	-12.0	156.5	-13	127 (-29.5)
09/18/26	2026	Valkyries	82	home	Fire	66	-12.5	160.0	-16	148 (-12.0)
Home Games Avg (6 games)			81.2	-	-	69.5	-7.2	157.7	-11.7	150.7 (-7.0)
All Games Avg (10 games)			83.2	-	-	76.7	-6.8	157.7	-6.5	159.9 (+2.3)

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Valkyries are 72.7% (16-6) against the spread as a home fav

The Valkyries are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Valkyries are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Valkyries are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) to the over/under at home

The Valkyries are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

The Dream are 0% (0-6) to the over/under as a dog

The Dream are 0% (0-4) to the over/under as an away dog

The Dream are 90% (9-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Dream are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

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Valkyries (Home)

The Valkyries are 60.8% (31-20) against the spread

The Valkyries are 66.7% (18-9) against the spread at home

The Valkyries are 60% (21-14) against the spread as a fav

The Valkyries are 72.7% (16-6) against the spread as a home fav

The Valkyries are 41.2% (21-30) to the over/under

The Valkyries are 44.4% (12-15) to the over/under at home

The Valkyries are 42.9% (15-20) to the over/under as a fav

The Valkyries are 50% (11-11) to the over/under as a home fav

The Valkyries are 63.6% (7-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Valkyries are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Valkyries are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Valkyries are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Valkyries are 45.5% (5-6) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Valkyries are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) to the over/under at home

The Valkyries are 40% (4-6) (L30 days) to the over/under as a fav

The Valkyries are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

Dream (Away)

The Dream are 50% (25-25) against the spread

The Dream are 52% (13-12) against the spread away

The Dream are 66.7% (4-2) against the spread as a dog

The Dream are 50% (2-2) against the spread as an away dog

The Dream are 54% (27-23) to the over/under

The Dream are 40% (10-15) to the over/under away

The Dream are 0% (0-6) to the over/under as a dog

The Dream are 0% (0-4) to the over/under as an away dog

The Dream are 90% (9-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Dream are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Dream are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Dream are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Dream are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Dream are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) to the over/under away

The Dream are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) to the over/under as a dog

The Dream are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/04/26	2026	Valkyries	88	Away	Dream	83	+4.5	163.5	-5	171
06/26/26	2026	Valkyries	78	Home	Dream	75	+1.5	164.0	-3	153
06/24/26	2026	Valkyries	77	Home	Dream	66	+1.5	166.0	-11	143
08/17/25	2025	Valkyries	63	Home	Dream	79	+4.5	152.0	+16	142
07/29/25	2025	Valkyries	77	Away	Dream	75	+8.5	155.5	-2	152
07/07/25	2025	Valkyries	81	Away	Dream	90	+7.5	157.5	+9	171
Valkyries as Home (3 games)			72.7	-	-	73.3	+2.5	160.7	+0.7	146.0
All Games Avg (6 games)			77.3	-	-	78.0	+4.7	159.8	+0.7	155.3

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 64 – 68 Atlanta Dream @ Golden State Valkyries window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Atlanta Dream", home_team: "Golden State Valkyries", game_date: null };

Injury Report as of Oct 17, 8:17 PM ET ATL1 Out GSV1 Out1 Questionable

Notes

Dream

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Valkyries

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Schedules

Dream Schedule

Valkyries Schedule

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Valkyries (Home)

Dream (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Final: 64 – 68
Atlanta Dream @ Golden State Valkyries