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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Lynx (-6.5) a 66.2-80.3% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 160.5 around 54.4-52.8% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Lynx have a 75.8% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 49.8% chance of going over the total.


Mercury Situational Notes

Lynx Situational Notes

Mercury Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/22MINPHO +6.5
MIN -6.5
160.5PHO---
9/19PHO [  ]PHO +2
SEA -2
161SEA [  ]0+2-161
9/17LAS [  ]PHO -3.5
LAS +3.5
163.5PHO [  ]0-3.5-163.5
9/15CHI [ 88 ]PHO -2
CHI +2
158.5PHO [ 93 ]+5+3+22.5
9/13PHO [ 69 ]PHO +9.5
CON -9.5
155.5CON [ 88 ]-19-9.5+1.5
9/7SEA [ 90 ]PHO +6
SEA -6
163.5PHO [ 66 ]-24-18-7.5
9/5PHO [ 77 ]PHO -5.5
WAS +5.5
165.5WAS [ 90 ]-13-18.5+1.5
9/3PHO [ 74 ]PHO -2
ATL +2
160.5ATL [ 66 ]+8+6-20.5
9/1PHO [ 79 ]PHO +4.5
LVA -4.5
169.5LVA [ 97 ]-18-13.5+6.5
8/28PHO [ 76 ]PHO +4.5
MIN -4.5
163.5MIN [ 89 ]-13-8.5+1.5

Lynx Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/22MINMIN -6.5
PHO +6.5
160.5PHO---
9/19MIN [  ]MIN -4
LAS +4
155.5LAS [  ]0-4-155.5
9/17CON [  ]MIN -1.5
CON +1.5
155MIN [  ]0-1.5-155
9/15NYL [ 79 ]MIN +5.5
NYL -5.5
160MIN [ 88 ]+9+14.5+7
9/13MIN [ 83 ]MIN -13
CHI +13
158.5CHI [ 66 ]+17+4-9.5
9/10ATL [ 64 ]MIN -5.5
ATL +5.5
155MIN [ 76 ]+12+6.5-15
9/8WAS [ 71 ]MIN -7.5
WAS +7.5
161MIN [ 78 ]+7-0.5-12
9/6IND [ 88 ]MIN -3
IND +3
170MIN [ 99 ]+11+8+17
9/1MIN [ 79 ]MIN -12
CHI +12
158CHI [ 74 ]+5-7-5
8/30DAL [ 94 ]MIN -8
DAL +8
169.5MIN [ 76 ]-18-26+0.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/22MINMIN -6.5
PHO +6.5
160.5PHO--------
8/28PHO [ 76 ]MIN -4.5
PHO +4.5
163.5MIN [ 89 ]+13+8.5+1.596.1111.294.916.2165
6/22MIN [ 73 ]MIN -6
PHO +6
167.5PHO [ 60 ]+13+7-34.596.690.774.516.1133
6/7PHO [ 81 ]MIN -4.5
PHO +4.5
161.5MIN [ 80 ]-1-5.5-0.596.199.9101.1-1.2161
5/31MIN [ 95 ]MIN -6.5
PHO +6.5
165PHO [ 71 ]+24+17.5+188129.596.832.7166
9/3MIN [ 86 ]MIN -8
PHO +8
157PHO [ 73 ]+13+5+295.8107.791.416.3159
7/7MIN [ 75 ]MIN -5.5
PHO +5.5
161PHO [ 64 ]+11+5.5-2292.597.38314.3139
7/1PHO [ 76 ]MIN +1.5
PHO -1.5
160.5MIN [ 86 ]+10+11.5+1.595.9107.695.112.5162
5/25PHO [ 90 ]MIN +4
PHO -4
161MIN [ 81 ]-9-5+1095.7101.5112.8-11.3171



Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h------------------
Mercury ---------
Lynx 1h------------------
Lynx ---------

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h------------------
Mercury ------------------
Lynx 1h------------------
Lynx ------------------

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h------------------
Mercury ------------------
Lynx 1h------------------
Lynx ------------------

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h------------------
Mercury ------------------
Lynx 1h------------------
Lynx ------------------

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h------------------
Mercury ------------------
Lynx 1h------------------
Lynx ------------------


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Lynx0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Mercury0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)