MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 2 – 5
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Brewers: 8-7 (53.3%) | Freddy Peralta (R): 2-1 (66.7%)

Diamondbacks: 8-7 (53.3%) | Zac Gallen (R): 1-2 (33.3%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Brewers

+103

+1.5 (-200)

o3.5 (-140)

8.0

Diamondbacks

-121

-1.5 (+168)

o3.5 (-142)

Open

Brewers

+103

+1.5 (-205)

o3.5 (-140)

8.5

Diamondbacks

-120

-1.5 (+173)

o3.5 (-142)

Odds Full MLB odds board

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report MILNo report ARINo report

Notes

Brewers

Situational Factor(s)

Game off demoralizing loss (led after 8th)

Game off giving up a walk-off win

Diamondbacks

Situational Factor(s)

Game off a walk-off win

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Brewers

F. Peralta	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Diamondbacks

Z. Gallen	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Brewers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/15/25 2025	Brewers Quinn Priester (R)	-	vs.	Tigers Jack Flaherty (R)	-	-104	8.0
04/14/25 2025	Brewers Tyler Alexander (L)	-	vs.	Tigers Tarik Skubal (L)	-	+140	7.0
04/13/25 2025	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	-	@	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	-	-100	8.0
04/12/25 2025	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	4	@	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	5	+150	9.5
04/11/25 2025	Brewers Jose Quintana (L)	7	@	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	0	+128	9.0
04/10/25 2025	Brewers Quinn Priester (R)	2	@	Rockies Ryan Feltner (R)	7	-130	10.5
04/09/25 2025	Brewers Tyler Alexander (L)	17	@	Rockies Antonio Senzatela (R)	2	-142	10.5
04/08/25 2025	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	7	@	Rockies Kyle Freeland (L)	1	-158	9.5
04/06/25 2025	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	8	vs.	Reds Carson Spiers (R)	2	-142	8.5
04/05/25 2025	Brewers Elvin Rodriguez (R)	7	vs.	Reds Brady Singer (R)	11	-122	8.0
04/04/25 2025	Brewers Tyler Alexander (L)	3	vs.	Reds Nick Martinez (R)	2	-124	8.5
04/03/25 2025	Brewers Nestor Cortes (L)	1	vs.	Reds Nick Lodolo (L)	0	-118	8.0
04/02/25 2025	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	3	vs.	Royals Cole Ragans (L)	2 F/11	-118	7.5

Away Games Avg (5 games)		7.4	-	-	3.0	-109	9.8

All Games Avg (10 games)		5.9	-	-	3.2	-116	9.0

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/16/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	-	@	Marlins Max Meyer (R)	-	-146	8.5
04/15/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	-	@	Marlins Connor Gillispie (R)	-	-166	8.5
04/13/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	-	vs.	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	-	-118	8.0
04/12/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	5	vs.	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	4	-178	9.5
04/11/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	0	vs.	Brewers Jose Quintana (L)	7	-152	9.0
04/09/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	9	vs.	Orioles Dean Kremer (R)	0	-118	9.0
04/08/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	4	vs.	Orioles Charlie Morton (R)	3	-104	9.5
04/07/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	1	vs.	Orioles Zach Eflin (R)	5	-124	8.5
04/06/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	4	@	Nationals Trevor Williams (R)	5	-180	7.5
04/05/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	3	@	Nationals Mitchell Parker (L)	4	-130	9.5
04/04/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	6	@	Nationals Jake Irvin (R)	4	-138	8.5
04/03/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	7	@	Yankees Carlos Carrasco (R)	9	+108	9.5
04/02/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	4	@	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	3	+120	7.5

Home Games Avg (5 games)		3.8	-	-	3.8	-132	9.1

All Games Avg (10 games)		4.3	-	-	4.4	-126	8.8

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Freddy Peralta's mix vs. ARI bats

Freddy Peralta's pitches			ARI hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	52.6%	94.8	16.8% 1st	21.1% 2nd	.265 3rd	.324 26th	.362 4th	.599 22nd	.275 18th	45.1% 25th	11.6% 15th	90.8 20th
Changeup	21.2%	88.9	28.4% 8th	33.1% 13th	.240 10th	.305 21st	.290 15th	.494 21st	.189 15th	38.8% 3rd	7.0% 17th	87.6 5th
Curveball	12.6%	79.4	28.4% 9th	25.9% 4th	.220 20th	.340 8th	.321 2nd	.562 12th	.222 15th	35.3% 25th	6.9% 21st	87.2 20th
Slider	10.2%	83.7	32.2% 11th	31.5% 12th	.207 29th	.321 18th	.295 13th	.550 17th	.229 16th	41.2% 8th	8.4% 18th	89.0 6th
Slow Curve	2.4%	74.6	31.3% 17th	0.0% 1st	.563 5th	.273 12th	.183 17th	.309 13th	.036 11th	12.5% 12th	0.0% 4th	67.7 18th
Sweeper	1.0%	80.2	30.2% 12th	32.2% 26th	.207 19th	.281 25th	.268 15th	.492 23rd	.211 19th	28.8% 24th	8.1% 16th	85.3 22nd
Whole mix, by usage			22.8% 4th	24.9% 2nd	.255 3rd	.320 24th	.330 4th	.559 21st	.239 17th	41.2% 21st	9.4% 18th	88.9 19th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Freddy Peralta's; every other column is ARI's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is ARI's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Zac Gallen's mix vs. MIL bats

Zac Gallen's pitches			MIL hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	45.0%	93.5	18.4% 2nd	25.7% 25th	.265 3rd	.328 21st	.340 19th	.552 29th	.224 30th	47.0% 20th	8.5% 30th	90.8 20th
Knuckle Curve	23.5%	81.1	34.6% 14th	30.2% 6th	.212 16th	.361 11th	.262 16th	.563 12th	.202 14th	46.5% 11th	7.6% 16th	89.8 9th
Changeup	16.0%	86.3	27.3% 6th	30.2% 2nd	.235 14th	.303 23rd	.296 8th	.494 21st	.191 12th	31.0% 27th	8.7% 6th	84.4 30th
Slider	13.0%	88.7	31.1% 7th	31.6% 14th	.237 11th	.317 19th	.294 14th	.513 26th	.196 26th	37.7% 18th	6.7% 29th	86.9 26th
Sinker	2.5%	93.2	12.6% 8th	25.3% 16th	.270 23rd	.312 25th	.321 29th	.456 28th	.144 29th	45.3% 16th	5.6% 24th	89.0 20th
Cutter	0.1%	92.4	20.5% 10th	27.9% 23rd	.281 13th	.307 27th	.347 20th	.536 24th	.229 17th	45.6% 4th	9.6% 15th	89.8 5th
Whole mix, by usage			25.1% 6th	28.2% 15th	.244 10th	.330 17th	.308 17th	.538 25th	.208 27th	43.1% 17th	8.0% 26th	89.0 21st

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Zac Gallen's; every other column is MIL's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is MIL's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Freddy Peralta Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/8	COL [ 1 ]	MIL [ 7 ]	-158	9.5	5	83	6	3	3	1	1	1	Kyle Freeland (L)
4/2	MIL [ 3 ]	KCR [ 2 ]	-118	7.5	8	97	8	0	2	0	1	1	Cole Ragans (L)
3/27	NYY [ 4 ]	MIL [ 2 ]	+124	7.5	5	93	8	1	4	2	2	2	Carlos Rodon (L)
10/1	MIL [ 4 ]	NYM [ 8 ]	-146	7.5	4	68	5	1	2	0	3	3	Luis Severino (R)
9/25	PIT [ 2 ]	MIL [ 1 ]	-146	7.5	5.33	96	7	2	2	0	2	2	Luis Ortiz (R)
Averages:					5.47	87.4	6.8	1.4	2.6	0.6	1.8	1.8

Zac Gallen Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/7	ARI [ 1 ]	BAL [ 5 ]	-124	8.5	4.67	96	2	4	7	1	5	5	Zach Eflin (R)
4/2	NYY [ 3 ]	ARI [ 4 ]	+120	7.5	6.67	101	13	0	3	0	0	0	Carlos Rodon (L)
3/27	ARI [ 6 ]	CHC [ 10 ]	-126	8.5	4	83	4	4	4	1	4	4	Justin Steele (L)
9/25	ARI [ 8 ]	SFG [ 2 ]	-270	8.5	6	97	11	2	2	0	1	1	Mason Black (R)
9/20	MIL [ 4 ]	ARI [ 7 ]	-134	8.5	5	96	5	1	7	3	4	4	Colin Rea (R)
Averages:					5.27	94.6	7	2.2	4.6	1	2.8	2.8

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

MIL Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/10	4/11	4/12	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Abner Uribe	1.0 (19)	·	1.0 (13)	2	2.0	32	1	2	1	1
Jared Koenig ⚠	·	1.0 (15)	1.0 (17)	2	2.0	32	3	0	1	0
Bryan Hudson	1.0 (19)	·	0.2 (16)	2	1.2	35	1	1	2	0
Trevor Megill ⚠	·	1.0 (20)	0.1 (17)	2	1.1	37	2	4	2	3
Joel Payamps	0.2 (26)	·	0.1 (10)	2	1.0	36	1	3	4	7
Nick Mears	·	·	1.0 (11)	1	1.0	11	1	0	0	0
Elvin Rodriguez	0.1 (15)	·	·	1	0.1	15	1	0	1	0
Team Totals (7 arms used):				12	9.1	198	10	10	11	11

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

ARI Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/10	4/11	4/12	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Ryne Nelson	·	·	3.0 (36)	1	3.0	36	3	0	2	1
Joe Mantiply	·	1.1 (36)	·	1	1.1	36	1	1	4	4
Ryan Thompson	·	1.1 (16)	·	1	1.1	16	0	0	0	0
Team Totals (3 arms used):				3	5.2	88	4	1	6	5

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

Notable Trends

The Diamondbacks are 71.4% (5-2-2) to the under as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 71.4% (5-2-2) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

The Brewers are 16.7% (1-5) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Brewers are 16.7% (1-5) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

View All Records

Diamondbacks (Home)

The Diamondbacks are 56.3% (9-7) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 55.6% (5-4) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 57.1% (8-6-2) to the under

The Diamondbacks are 71.4% (5-2-2) to the under as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 56.3% (9-7) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 55.6% (5-4) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 57.1% (8-6-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Diamondbacks are 71.4% (5-2-2) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Brewers (Away)

The Brewers are 50% (8-8) on the moneyline

The Brewers are 16.7% (1-5) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Brewers are 62.5% (10-6) to the under

The Brewers are 66.7% (4-2) to the under as an away dog

The Brewers are 50% (8-8) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Brewers are 16.7% (1-5) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Brewers are 62.5% (10-6) (L30 days) to the under

The Brewers are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
04/12/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	5	vs.	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	4	-178	9.5	-1	U 9 -0.5
04/11/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	0	vs.	Brewers Jose Quintana (L)	7	-152	9.0	+7	U 7 -2.0
09/22/24 2024	Diamondbacks Jordan Montgomery (L)	9	@	Brewers Frankie Montas (R)	10	+120	8.0	+1	O 19 +11.0
09/21/24 2024	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	5	@	Brewers Aaron Civale (R)	0	-102	8.0	-5	U 5 -3.0
09/20/24 2024	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	7	@	Brewers Colin Rea (R)	4	-134	8.5	-3	O 11 +2.5
09/19/24 2024	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	5	@	Brewers Tobias Myers (R)	1	-124	8.5	-4	U 6 -2.5
09/15/24 2024	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	11	vs.	Brewers DL Hall (L)	10 F/10	-162	8.5	-1	O 21 +12.5

Diamondbacks as Home (3 games)		5.3	-	-	7.0	-164	9.0	+1.7	O 12.3 +3.3

All Games Avg (7 games)		6.0	-	-	5.1	-129	8.6	-0.9	O 11.1 +2.6

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 2 – 5 Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Milwaukee Brewers", home_team: "Arizona Diamondbacks", game_date: "2025-04-13" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report MILNo report ARINo report

Notes

Brewers

Situational Factor(s)

Diamondbacks

Situational Factor(s)

Brewers

Diamondbacks

Filters

Schedules

Brewers Schedule Follow global filters

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Diamondbacks (Home)

Brewers (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 2 – 5
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks