MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 5 – 4
Atlanta Braves @ Tampa Bay Rays

Braves: 3-10 (23.1%) | AJ Smith-Shawver (R): 0-2 (0.0%)

Rays: 6-7 (46.2%) | Drew Rasmussen (R): 1-1 (50.0%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Braves

+116

+1.5 (-172)

o3.5 (-139)

8.5

Rays

-136

-1.5 (+145)

o4.5 (-106)

Open

Braves

+119

+1.5 (-172)

o3.5 (-139)

8.5

Rays

-139

-1.5 (+145)

o4.5 (-106)

Odds Full MLB odds board

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Games
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Injury Report ATLNo report TBNo report

Notes — no active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Braves

A. Smith-Shawver	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Rays

D. Rasmussen	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Braves Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/14/25 2025	Braves Grant Holmes (R)	-	@	Blue Jays Easton Lucas (L)	-	-116	9.0
04/13/25 2025	Braves Chris Sale (L)	-	@	Rays Joe Boyle (R)	-	-174	8.5
04/12/25 2025	Braves AJ Smith-Shawver (R)	-	@	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	-	+120	8.5
04/11/25 2025	Braves Bryce Elder (R)	3	@	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	6	+118	9.0
04/10/25 2025	Braves Spencer Schwellenbach (R)	4	vs.	Phillies Jesus Luzardo (L)	2 F/11	-126	7.5
04/09/25 2025	Braves Grant Holmes (R)	3	vs.	Phillies Taijuan Walker (R)	4	-144	8.5
04/08/25 2025	Braves Chris Sale (L)	7	vs.	Phillies Zack Wheeler (R)	5	-116	7.0
04/05/25 2025	Braves AJ Smith-Shawver (R)	0	vs.	Marlins Cal Quantrill (R)	4	-255	8.5
04/04/25 2025	Braves Spencer Schwellenbach (R)	10	vs.	Marlins Max Meyer (R)	0	-245	7.5
04/02/25 2025	Braves Bryce Elder (R)	5	@	Dodgers Blake Snell (L)	6	+188	8.0
04/01/25 2025	Braves Chris Sale (L)	1	@	Dodgers Dustin May (R)	3	+108	7.5
03/31/25 2025	Braves Grant Holmes (R)	1	@	Dodgers Tyler Glasnow (R)	6	+176	8.0
03/30/25 2025	Braves AJ Smith-Shawver (R)	0	@	Padres Nick Pivetta (R)	5	+110	8.0

Away Games Avg (5 games)		2.0	-	-	5.2	+135	8.1

All Games Avg (10 games)		3.4	-	-	4.1	-110	8.0

Rays Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/14/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	-	vs.	Red Sox Tanner Houck (R)	-	-126	8.5
04/13/25 2025	Rays Joe Boyle (R)	-	vs.	Braves Chris Sale (L)	-	+146	8.5
04/12/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	-	vs.	Braves AJ Smith-Shawver (R)	-	-142	8.5
04/11/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	6	vs.	Braves Bryce Elder (R)	3	-140	9.0
04/10/25 2025	Rays Zack Littell (R)	1	vs.	Angels Jose Soriano (R)	11	-122	8.0
04/09/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	5	vs.	Angels Yusei Kikuchi (L)	4	-142	7.5
04/08/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	3	vs.	Angels Kyle Hendricks (R)	4	-172	8.5
04/06/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	3	@	Rangers Kumar Rocker (R)	4	-112	8.0
04/05/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	4	@	Rangers Jacob deGrom (R)	6	+158	7.5
04/04/25 2025	Rays Zack Littell (R)	2	@	Rangers Tyler Mahle (R)	5	+110	8.5
04/02/25 2025	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	2	vs.	Pirates Paul Skenes (R)	4	-102	7.0
04/01/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	7	vs.	Pirates Tom Harrington (R)	0	-154	8.5
03/31/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	6	vs.	Pirates Carmen Mlodzinski (R)	1	-188	8.0

Home Games Avg (7 games)		4.3	-	-	3.9	-143	8.1

All Games Avg (10 games)		3.9	-	-	4.2	-123	8.1

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

AJ Smith-Shawver's mix vs. TBR bats

AJ Smith-Shawver's pitches			TBR hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	46.7%	95.6	20.7% 13th	21.6% 5th	.271 1st	.336 18th	.329 28th	.581 26th	.245 28th	44.5% 27th	9.3% 27th	90.4 24th
Split-Finger	33.9%	83.2	32.9% 10th	37.5% 24th	.203 23rd	.353 3rd	.263 13th	.476 20th	.123 28th	32.8% 24th	3.7% 28th	84.8 28th
Curveball	15.2%	77.3	23.6% 1st	26.8% 8th	.249 5th	.309 24th	.285 13th	.517 21st	.208 18th	37.1% 16th	6.4% 24th	88.0 13th
Slider	4.2%	86.9	26.4% 2nd	28.4% 2nd	.233 14th	.316 20th	.301 11th	.532 23rd	.216 20th	42.0% 3rd	10.0% 11th	88.6 8th
Whole mix, by usage			25.5% 8th	28.1% 19th	.243 7th	.337 10th	.299 22nd	.534 25th	.197 30th	39.3% 24th	7.0% 30th	88.1 27th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are AJ Smith-Shawver's; every other column is TBR's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is TBR's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Drew Rasmussen's mix vs. ATL bats

Drew Rasmussen's pitches			ATL hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	35.2%	95.8	22.4% 20th	23.2% 14th	.247 19th	.326 24th	.347 15th	.631 12th	.305 9th	49.5% 12th	12.8% 8th	92.2 6th
Cutter	31.4%	90.3	19.7% 7th	28.4% 24th	.307 4th	.324 18th	.348 17th	.553 21st	.229 17th	36.4% 25th	8.5% 20th	87.8 22nd
Sinker	22.9%	95.4	15.5% 26th	27.2% 29th	.284 12th	.329 13th	.353 10th	.520 12th	.191 11th	46.9% 7th	7.9% 9th	89.8 10th
Sweeper	4.7%	84.6	28.1% 5th	31.7% 23rd	.232 8th	.324 4th	.300 4th	.627 1st	.303 1st	36.0% 6th	11.1% 3rd	87.9 4th
Curveball	4.3%	80.4	27.2% 7th	32.5% 28th	.225 17th	.320 19th	.295 10th	.559 15th	.239 10th	36.2% 20th	8.4% 12th	88.1 11th
Changeup	1.2%	89.4	26.2% 3rd	33.8% 17th	.230 15th	.307 20th	.292 14th	.498 18th	.191 12th	36.1% 9th	6.5% 22nd	87.3 6th
Slider	0.2%	84.6	32.3% 13th	36.2% 29th	.221 21st	.324 15th	.292 15th	.605 6th	.281 6th	41.6% 6th	12.3% 3rd	89.4 3rd
Whole mix, by usage			20.5% 13th	26.7% 24th	.272 6th	.325 18th	.343 12th	.576 13th	.251 10th	43.4% 14th	10.0% 10th	89.8 10th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Drew Rasmussen's; every other column is ATL's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is ATL's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

AJ Smith-Shawver Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/5	ATL [ 0 ]	MIA [ 4 ]	-255	8.5	4.67	82	6	3	7	1	3	3	Cal Quantrill (R)
3/30	SDP [ 5 ]	ATL [ 0 ]	+110	8	4	77	4	3	6	0	2	2	Nick Pivetta (R)
10/1	SDP [ 4 ]	ATL [ 0 ]	+160	7.5	1.33	29	1	0	4	1	3	3	Michael King (R)
5/23	CHC [ 0 ]	ATL [ 3 ]	-102	8.5	4.33	87	4	2	3	0	0	0	Ben Brown (R)
Averages:					3.58	68.8	3.75	2	5	0.5	2	2

Drew Rasmussen Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/6	TEX [ 4 ]	TBR [ 3 ]	-112	8	5	79	4	1	3	0	1	1	Kumar Rocker (R)
3/31	TBR [ 6 ]	PIT [ 1 ]	-188	8	5	70	4	0	2	0	0	0	Carmen Mlodzinski (R)
9/14	CLE [ 6 ]	TBR [ 1 ]	+110	8.5	2	28	2	0	1	0	0	0	Joey Cantillo (L)
8/28	SEA [ 6 ]	TBR [ 2 ]	+134	6.5	2	26	2	0	2	0	0	1	Luis Castillo (R)
8/18	TBR [ 8 ]	ARI [ 7 ]	+106	7.5	2	21	2	0	0	0	0	0	Merrill Kelly (R)
Averages:					3.2	44.8	2.8	0.2	1.6	0	0.2	0.4

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

ATL Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/9	4/10	4/11	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Aaron Bummer ⚠	1.1 (15)	1.0 (22)	·	2	2.1	37	3	2	1	1
Raisel Iglesias ⚠	1.0 (13)	1.0 (17)	·	2	2.0	30	4	0	1	1
Pierce Johnson	0.2 (20)	·	0.2 (14)	2	1.1	34	1	0	4	1
Zach Thompson	·	·	1.1 (20)	1	1.1	20	1	1	0	0
Daysbel Hernandez	1.0 (23)	·	·	1	1.0	23	1	1	0	0
Dylan Lee	1.0 (23)	·	·	1	1.0	23	2	0	2	2
Enyel De Los Santos	·	1.0 (11)	·	1	1.0	11	1	0	0	0
Jose Suarez	·	1.0 (25)	·	1	1.0	25	0	3	0	0
Rafael Montero	·	1.0 (14)	·	1	1.0	14	2	1	0	0
Team Totals (9 arms used):				12	12.0	217	15	8	8	5

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

TBR Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/9	4/10	4/11	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Mason Englert	·	3.0 (36)	·	1	3.0	36	1	0	4	2
Mason Montgomery	1.0 (13)	·	1.0 (8)	2	2.0	21	1	0	1	1
Pete Fairbanks	1.0 (15)	·	1.0 (17)	2	2.0	32	1	1	1	0
Edwin Uceta	·	·	1.0 (14)	1	1.0	14	1	0	2	2
Garrett Cleavinger	·	1.0 (11)	·	1	1.0	11	0	0	0	0
Hunter Bigge	·	1.0 (19)	·	1	1.0	19	0	0	2	1
Kevin Kelly	1.0 (18)	·	·	1	1.0	18	1	1	0	0
Manuel Rodriguez	1.0 (8)	·	·	1	1.0	8	1	0	0	0
Team Totals (8 arms used):				10	12.0	159	6	2	10	6

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

Notable Trends

The Braves are 28.6% (4-10) on the moneyline

The Braves are 14.3% (1-6) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Braves are 28.6% (4-10) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Braves are 14.3% (1-6) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

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Rays (Home)

The Rays are 42.9% (6-8) on the moneyline

The Rays are 60% (6-4) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Rays are 61.5% (8-5-1) to the under

The Rays are 55.6% (5-4-1) to the under as a home fav

The Rays are 42.9% (6-8) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Rays are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Rays are 61.5% (8-5-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Rays are 55.6% (5-4-1) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Braves (Away)

The Braves are 28.6% (4-10) on the moneyline

The Braves are 14.3% (1-6) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Braves are 58.3% (7-5-2) to the under

The Braves are 60% (3-2-2) to the under as an away dog

The Braves are 28.6% (4-10) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Braves are 14.3% (1-6) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Braves are 58.3% (7-5-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Braves are 60% (3-2-2) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
04/11/25 2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	6	vs.	Braves Bryce Elder (R)	3	-140	9.0	-3	P 9 0.0
06/16/24 2024	Rays Zach Eflin (R)	8	@	Braves Hurston Waldrep (R)	6	+104	9.0	-2	O 14 +5.0
06/15/24 2024	Rays Ryan Pepiot (R)	2	@	Braves Charlie Morton (R)	9	+110	8.5	+7	O 11 +2.5
06/14/24 2024	Rays Zack Littell (R)	3	@	Braves Chris Sale (L)	7	+184	8.5	+4	O 10 +1.5

Rays as Home (1 games)		6.0	-	-	3.0	-140	9.0	-3.0	P 9.0 0.0

All Games Avg (4 games)		4.8	-	-	6.3	+110	8.8	+1.5	O 11.0 +2.3

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 5 – 4 Atlanta Braves @ Tampa Bay Rays window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Atlanta Braves", home_team: "Tampa Bay Rays", game_date: "2025-04-12" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report ATLNo report TBNo report

Braves

Rays

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Schedules

Braves Schedule Follow global filters

Rays Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Rays (Home)

Braves (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 5 – 4
Atlanta Braves @ Tampa Bay Rays