MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 3 – 1
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies

Dodgers: 8-1 (88.9%) | Roki Sasaki (R): 2-0 (100.0%)

Phillies: 6-1 (85.7%) | Aaron Nola (R): 0-1 (0.0%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Dodgers

-108

-1.5 (+149)

o3.5 (-146)

8.5

Phillies

-109

+1.5 (-180)

o3.5 (-144)

Open

Dodgers

-102

-1.5 (+156)

o3.5 (-146)

8.5

Phillies

-114

+1.5 (-188)

o3.5 (-144)

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Games
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Injury Report LADNo report PHINo report

Notes — no active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Dodgers

R. Sasaki	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Phillies

A. Nola	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Dodgers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/07/25 2025	Dodgers Dustin May (R)	-	@	Nationals MacKenzie Gore (L)	-	-176	7.5
04/06/25 2025	Dodgers Tyler Glasnow (R)	-	@	Phillies Cristopher Sanchez (L)	-	-136	7.5
04/05/25 2025	Dodgers Roki Sasaki (R)	-	@	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	-	-102	8.5
04/04/25 2025	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	2	@	Phillies Jesus Luzardo (L)	3	-126	8.0
04/02/25 2025	Dodgers Blake Snell (L)	6	vs.	Braves Bryce Elder (R)	5	-225	8.0
04/01/25 2025	Dodgers Dustin May (R)	3	vs.	Braves Chris Sale (L)	1	-126	7.5
03/31/25 2025	Dodgers Tyler Glasnow (R)	6	vs.	Braves Grant Holmes (R)	1	-210	8.0
03/29/25 2025	Dodgers Roki Sasaki (R)	7	vs.	Tigers Reese Olson (R)	3	-210	7.5
03/28/25 2025	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	8	vs.	Tigers Jack Flaherty (R)	5 F/10	-225	7.5
03/27/25 2025	Dodgers Blake Snell (L)	5	vs.	Tigers Tarik Skubal (L)	4	-166	6.5
03/19/25 2025	Dodgers Roki Sasaki (R)	6	vs.	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	3	-138	7.5
03/18/25 2025	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	4	vs.	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	1	-154	8.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
10/30/24 2024	Dodgers Jack Flaherty (R)	7	@	Yankees Gerrit Cole (R)	6	+122	8.5

Away Games Avg (1 game this season)		2.0	-	-	3.0	-126	8.0

All Games Avg (9 games this season)		5.2	-	-	2.9	-170	7.7

Phillies Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/08/25 2025	Phillies Zack Wheeler (R)	-	@	Braves Chris Sale (L)	-	-102	7.0
04/06/25 2025	Phillies Cristopher Sanchez (L)	-	vs.	Dodgers Tyler Glasnow (R)	-	+116	7.5
04/05/25 2025	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	-	vs.	Dodgers Roki Sasaki (R)	-	-116	8.5
04/04/25 2025	Phillies Jesus Luzardo (L)	3	vs.	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	2	+108	8.0
04/03/25 2025	Phillies Taijuan Walker (R)	3	vs.	Rockies Antonio Senzatela (R)	1	-205	9.5
04/02/25 2025	Phillies Zack Wheeler (R)	5	vs.	Rockies Kyle Freeland (L)	1	-320	7.0
03/31/25 2025	Phillies Cristopher Sanchez (L)	6	vs.	Rockies German Marquez (R)	1	-320	8.5
03/30/25 2025	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	1	@	Nationals Mitchell Parker (L)	5	-138	8.5
03/29/25 2025	Phillies Jesus Luzardo (L)	11	@	Nationals Jake Irvin (R)	6	-160	9.0
03/27/25 2025	Phillies Zack Wheeler (R)	7	@	Nationals MacKenzie Gore (L)	3 F/10	-156	7.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
10/09/24 2024	Phillies Ranger Suarez (L)	1	@	Mets Jose Quintana (L)	4	+102	7.5
10/08/24 2024	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	2	@	Mets Sean Manaea (L)	7	-112	7.0
10/06/24 2024	Phillies Cristopher Sanchez (L)	7	vs.	Mets Luis Severino (R)	6	-148	8.5

Home Games Avg (4 games this season)		4.3	-	-	1.3	-202	8.3

All Games Avg (7 games this season)		5.1	-	-	2.7	-178	8.3

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Roki Sasaki's mix vs. PHI bats

Roki Sasaki's pitches			PHI hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	48.8%	96.6	21.6% 16th	26.5% 30th	.264 6th	.340 14th	.340 19th	.630 13th	.290 15th	45.3% 24th	11.1% 19th	91.1 17th
Forkball	37.1%	85.3	36.4% 14th	46.8% 20th	.098 14th	.155 17th	.167 17th	.205 16th	.050 11th	0.0% 16th	0.0% 4th	86.1 13th
Sweeper	13.3%	81.9	31.4% 19th	35.4% 29th	.243 5th	.327 3rd	.294 6th	.569 8th	.242 12th	31.6% 19th	9.1% 12th	85.4 20th
Sinker	0.8%	97.4	14.1% 16th	25.8% 21st	.270 23rd	.331 11th	.365 4th	.536 7th	.205 5th	45.5% 14th	8.3% 6th	90.0 9th
Whole mix, by usage			28.3% 14th	35.2% 23rd	.200 13th	.270 20th	.270 14th	.463 20th	.194 16th	26.7% 28th	6.7% 21st	88.5 18th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Roki Sasaki's; every other column is PHI's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is PHI's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Aaron Nola's mix vs. LAD bats

Aaron Nola's pitches			LAD hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	30.4%	91.9	20.0% 9th	21.4% 3rd	.263 7th	.345 8th	.374 1st	.677 3rd	.332 3rd	48.4% 15th	13.8% 3rd	91.9 10th
Knuckle Curve	29.5%	78.3	34.5% 12th	29.2% 3rd	.227 11th	.334 17th	.274 11th	.567 11th	.233 11th	38.4% 22nd	10.2% 8th	88.5 19th
Sinker	17.8%	90.8	13.4% 11th	24.1% 11th	.292 9th	.345 4th	.367 2nd	.549 2nd	.204 6th	46.0% 11th	7.4% 12th	90.4 4th
Changeup	15.1%	84.9	31.9% 17th	30.9% 5th	.244 8th	.320 14th	.293 13th	.519 8th	.199 11th	35.8% 10th	7.4% 16th	86.9 12th
Cutter	7.3%	86.2	23.2% 22nd	25.8% 11th	.257 23rd	.324 18th	.338 23rd	.553 21st	.229 17th	36.4% 25th	8.7% 19th	88.4 15th
Whole mix, by usage			25.1% 12th	25.9% 2nd	.254 8th	.336 11th	.328 6th	.589 7th	.252 8th	42.3% 20th	10.3% 5th	89.6 11th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Aaron Nola's; every other column is LAD's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is LAD's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Roki Sasaki Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
3/29	LAD [ 7 ]	DET [ 3 ]	-210	7.5	1.67	61	2	4	3	0	2	2	Reese Olson (R)
3/19	CHC [ 3 ]	LAD [ 6 ]	-138	7.5	3	56	3	5	1	0	1	1	Justin Steele (L)
Averages:					2.33	58.5	2.5	4.5	2	0	1.5	1.5

Aaron Nola Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
3/30	WSN [ 5 ]	PHI [ 1 ]	-138	8.5	5.33	95	8	0	6	2	5	5	Mitchell Parker (L)
10/8	NYM [ 7 ]	PHI [ 2 ]	-112	7	5	87	8	2	5	2	4	4	Sean Manaea (L)
9/29	WSN [ 3 ]	PHI [ 6 ]	-138	7.5	5	96	7	0	9	1	3	3	Jake Irvin (R)
9/23	PHI [ 6 ]	CHC [ 2 ]	-188	8	6	102	7	2	7	0	2	2	Nate Pearson (R)
9/18	MIL [ 2 ]	PHI [ 1 ]	-104	7.5	7	97	9	1	3	1	1	1	Freddy Peralta (R)
Averages:					5.67	95.4	7.8	1	6	1.2	3	3

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

LAD Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/2	4/3	4/4	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Ben Casparius	2.0 (29)	·	·	1	2.0	29	3	1	2	0
Jack Dreyer	2.0 (22)	·	·	1	2.0	22	1	0	0	0
Kirby Yates	1.0 (13)	·	0.2 (18)	2	1.2	31	3	1	3	2
Luis Garcia	·	·	1.1 (10)	1	1.1	10	1	1	0	0
Team Totals (4 arms used):				5	7.0	92	8	3	5	2

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

PHI Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/2	4/3	4/4	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Jordan Romano ⚠	·	1.0 (14)	1.0 (22)	2	2.0	36	3	2	2	2
Jose Alvarado ⚠	1.0 (13)	1.0 (35)	·	2	2.0	48	5	1	4	1
Matt Strahm	1.0 (30)	·	0.2 (16)	2	1.2	46	3	2	2	0
Orion Kerkering	·	1.0 (16)	·	1	1.0	16	2	0	1	0
Jose Ruiz	·	·	0.1 (3)	1	0.1	3	0	0	0	0
Team Totals (5 arms used):				8	7.0	149	13	5	9	3

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

Notable Trends

The Phillies are 75% (6-2) on the moneyline

The Phillies are 75% (3-1) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Phillies are 75% (6-2) to the under

The Phillies are 100% (4-0) to the under as a home fav

The Phillies are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Phillies are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Phillies are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Phillies are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

The Dodgers are 90% (9-1) on the moneyline

The Dodgers are 90% (9-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline

View All Records

Phillies (Home)

The Phillies are 75% (6-2) on the moneyline

The Phillies are 75% (3-1) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Phillies are 75% (6-2) to the under

The Phillies are 100% (4-0) to the under as a home fav

The Phillies are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Phillies are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Phillies are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Phillies are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Dodgers (Away)

The Dodgers are 90% (9-1) on the moneyline

The Dodgers are 100% (1-0) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Dodgers are 50% (5-5) to the over

The Dodgers are 100% (1-0) to the under as an away dog

The Dodgers are 90% (9-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Dodgers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Dodgers are 50% (5-5) (L30 days) to the over

The Dodgers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
04/04/25 2025	Phillies Jesus Luzardo (L)	3	vs.	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	2	+108	8.0	-1	U 5 -3.0
08/07/24 2024	Phillies Tyler Phillips (R)	9	@	Dodgers Gavin Stone (R)	4	+118	9.0	-5	O 13 +4.0
08/06/24 2024	Phillies Cristopher Sanchez (L)	6	@	Dodgers Clayton Kershaw (L)	2	-106	8.5	-4	U 8 -0.5
08/05/24 2024	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	3	@	Dodgers Tyler Glasnow (R)	5	+116	7.5	+2	O 8 +0.5
07/11/24 2024	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	5	vs.	Dodgers Anthony Banda (L)	1	-158	9.5	-4	U 6 -3.5
07/10/24 2024	Phillies Cristopher Sanchez (L)	4	vs.	Dodgers Gavin Stone (R)	3	-136	9.0	-1	U 7 -2.0
07/09/24 2024	Phillies Zack Wheeler (R)	10	vs.	Dodgers Bobby Miller (R)	1	-158	9.0	-9	O 11 +2.0

Phillies as Home (4 games)		5.5	-	-	1.8	-133	8.9	-3.8	U 7.3 -1.6

All Games Avg (7 games)		5.7	-	-	2.6	-113	8.6	-3.1	U 8.3 -0.4

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 3 – 1 Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Los Angeles Dodgers", home_team: "Philadelphia Phillies", game_date: "2025-04-05" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report LADNo report PHINo report

Dodgers

Phillies

Filters

Schedules

Dodgers Schedule Follow global filters

Phillies Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Phillies (Home)

Dodgers (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 3 – 1
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies