MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 6 – 4
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals

Diamondbacks: 4-3 (57.1%) | Brandon Pfaadt (R): 0-1 (0.0%)

Nationals: 1-5 (16.7%) | Jake Irvin (R): 0-1 (0.0%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Diamondbacks

-143

-1.5 (+118)

o4.5 (-114)

8.5

Nationals

+122

+1.5 (-140)

o3.5 (-111)

Open

Diamondbacks

-143

-1.5 (+118)

o4.5 (-114)

8.5

Nationals

+122

+1.5 (-140)

o3.5 (-111)

Odds Full MLB odds board

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Games
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Injury Report ARINo report WSHNo report

Notes

Diamondbacks

Nothing active

Nationals

Situational Factor(s)

Rest Advantage

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Diamondbacks

B. Pfaadt	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Nationals

J. Irvin	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/06/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	-	@	Nationals Trevor Williams (R)	-	-180	7.5
04/05/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	-	@	Nationals Mitchell Parker (L)	-	-130	9.5
04/04/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	-	@	Nationals Jake Irvin (R)	-	-138	8.5
04/03/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	7	@	Yankees Carlos Carrasco (R)	9	+108	9.5
04/02/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	4	@	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	3	+120	7.5
04/01/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	7	@	Yankees Will Warren (R)	5	-108	8.5
03/30/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	10	vs.	Cubs Matthew Boyd (L)	6	-112	9.0
03/29/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	3	vs.	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	4	-120	9.0
03/28/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	8	vs.	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	1	-145	9.0
03/27/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	6	vs.	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	10	-126	8.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/29/24 2024	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	11	vs.	Padres Martin Perez (L)	2	-220	8.5
09/28/24 2024	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	0	vs.	Padres Randy Vasquez (R)	5	-220	9.0
09/27/24 2024	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	3	vs.	Padres Yu Darvish (R)	5	-126	9.0

Away Games Avg (3 games this season)		6.0	-	-	5.7	+106	8.5

All Games Avg (7 games this season)		6.4	-	-	5.4	-111	8.7

Nationals Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/06/25 2025	Nationals Trevor Williams (R)	-	vs.	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	-	+152	7.5
04/05/25 2025	Nationals Mitchell Parker (L)	-	vs.	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	-	+110	9.5
04/04/25 2025	Nationals Jake Irvin (R)	-	vs.	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	-	+118	8.5
04/02/25 2025	Nationals MacKenzie Gore (L)	2	@	Blue Jays Easton Lucas (L)	4	-106	8.5
04/01/25 2025	Nationals Trevor Williams (R)	3	@	Blue Jays Jose Berrios (R)	5	+128	8.5
03/31/25 2025	Nationals Michael Soroka (R)	2	@	Blue Jays Bowden Francis (R)	5	+142	8.5
03/30/25 2025	Nationals Mitchell Parker (L)	5	vs.	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	1	+118	8.5
03/29/25 2025	Nationals Jake Irvin (R)	6	vs.	Phillies Jesus Luzardo (L)	11	+137	9.0
03/27/25 2025	Nationals MacKenzie Gore (L)	3	vs.	Phillies Zack Wheeler (R)	7 F/10	+132	7.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/29/24 2024	Nationals Jake Irvin (R)	3	vs.	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	6	+118	7.5
09/28/24 2024	Nationals MacKenzie Gore (L)	6	vs.	Phillies Zack Wheeler (R)	3	+184	7.5
09/27/24 2024	Nationals Trevor Williams (R)	9	vs.	Phillies Ranger Suarez (L)	1	+160	8.0
09/26/24 2024	Nationals Patrick Corbin (L)	4	vs.	Royals Michael Wacha (R)	7	+144	8.5

Home Games Avg (3 games this season)		4.7	-	-	6.3	+129	8.3

All Games Avg (6 games this season)		3.5	-	-	5.5	+124	8.4

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Brandon Pfaadt's mix vs. WSN bats

Brandon Pfaadt's pitches			WSN hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Sinker	23.5%	93.1	15.0% 23rd	26.5% 23rd	.322 1st	.347 3rd	.358 7th	.540 6th	.193 10th	46.9% 7th	8.1% 7th	89.7 12th
4-Seam Fastball	23.4%	93.6	19.6% 8th	23.8% 18th	.254 11th	.367 1st	.357 9th	.637 11th	.270 21st	50.7% 5th	11.9% 13th	92.2 6th
Sweeper	18.6%	84.7	34.0% 21st	29.4% 11th	.186 28th	.324 4th	.254 24th	.528 15th	.204 20th	29.5% 22nd	5.8% 29th	85.1 23rd
Changeup	15.7%	87.3	30.7% 15th	32.4% 10th	.210 26th	.325 9th	.271 22nd	.468 25th	.143 28th	32.7% 22nd	3.7% 29th	85.0 26th
Curveball	9.8%	82.0	35.4% 28th	28.6% 19th	.183 30th	.317 22nd	.237 28th	.518 20th	.201 20th	40.6% 8th	7.8% 18th	87.7 14th
Cutter	9.2%	89.8	17.4% 2nd	20.7% 1st	.319 2nd	.365 1st	.373 6th	.583 10th	.218 23rd	41.0% 11th	7.9% 23rd	90.4 1st
Whole mix, by usage			24.3% 17th	27.0% 16th	.249 14th	.343 1st	.314 17th	.551 15th	.208 20th	41.2% 13th	7.8% 22nd	88.6 16th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Brandon Pfaadt's; every other column is WSN's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is WSN's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Jake Irvin's mix vs. ARI bats

Jake Irvin's pitches			ARI hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	32.0%	92.4	16.8% 1st	21.1% 2nd	.265 3rd	.324 26th	.362 4th	.599 22nd	.275 18th	45.1% 25th	11.6% 15th	90.8 20th
Curveball	29.6%	77.8	28.4% 9th	25.9% 4th	.220 20th	.340 8th	.321 2nd	.562 12th	.222 15th	35.3% 25th	6.9% 21st	87.2 20th
Sinker	22.1%	91.9	11.4% 1st	21.2% 2nd	.273 20th	.323 17th	.350 11th	.501 17th	.178 15th	48.9% 3rd	6.9% 15th	90.5 2nd
Changeup	7.7%	85.6	28.4% 8th	33.1% 13th	.240 10th	.305 21st	.290 15th	.494 21st	.189 15th	38.8% 3rd	7.0% 17th	87.6 5th
Cutter	4.4%	87.3	16.9% 1st	25.5% 8th	.286 9th	.340 7th	.384 2nd	.618 5th	.278 4th	41.1% 10th	10.7% 6th	88.2 18th
Slider	4.1%	83.6	32.2% 11th	31.5% 12th	.207 29th	.321 18th	.295 13th	.550 17th	.229 16th	41.2% 8th	8.4% 18th	89.0 6th
Whole mix, by usage			20.6% 4th	24.1% 2nd	.250 14th	.328 17th	.340 3rd	.557 17th	.229 15th	42.2% 17th	8.6% 17th	89.2 14th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Jake Irvin's; every other column is ARI's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is ARI's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Brandon Pfaadt Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
3/29	ARI [ 3 ]	CHC [ 4 ]	-120	9	6	78	5	1	6	1	3	3	Shota Imanaga (L)
9/29	ARI [ 11 ]	SDP [ 2 ]	-220	8.5	5.33	79	9	1	3	0	1	2	Martin Perez (L)
9/24	ARI [ 0 ]	SFG [ 11 ]	-152	8.5	2.67	62	4	2	6	2	4	5	Logan Webb (R)
9/19	MIL [ 1 ]	ARI [ 5 ]	-124	8.5	7	104	12	0	2	1	1	1	Tobias Myers (R)
9/14	ARI [ 8 ]	MIL [ 15 ]	-158	8.5	1.67	58	0	3	7	1	8	8	Tobias Myers (R)
Averages:					4.53	76.2	6	1.4	4.8	1	3.4	3.8

Jake Irvin Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
3/29	WSN [ 6 ]	PHI [ 11 ]	+137	9	5	83	2	2	7	1	2	2	Jesus Luzardo (L)
9/29	WSN [ 3 ]	PHI [ 6 ]	+118	7.5	4.33	66	3	3	5	0	6	6	Aaron Nola (R)
9/22	CHC [ 5 ]	WSN [ 0 ]	+180	7.5	4	83	3	4	4	3	5	5	Shota Imanaga (L)
9/16	NYM [ 2 ]	WSN [ 1 ]	+154	7.5	7.33	94	5	1	4	0	1	1	Sean Manaea (L)
9/11	WSN [ 5 ]	ATL [ 1 ]	+148	7.5	6	84	5	1	2	0	1	1	Max Fried (L)
Averages:					5.33	82	3.6	2.2	4.4	0.8	3	3

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

ARI Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/1	4/2	4/3	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Jalen Beeks	1.2 (22)	·	1.0 (26)	2	2.2	48	2	1	2	0
Ryne Nelson	·	·	2.1 (33)	1	2.1	33	2	0	1	0
AJ Puk ⚠	1.0 (15)	1.0 (14)	·	2	2.0	29	3	0	2	2
Shelby Miller	1.0 (8)	·	1.0 (21)	2	2.0	29	2	1	0	0
Joe Mantiply	·	1.0 (13)	·	1	1.0	13	1	0	0	0
Justin Martinez	1.0 (14)	·	·	1	1.0	14	3	0	0	0
Ryan Thompson	·	0.1 (9)	·	1	0.1	9	1	0	2	2
Team Totals (7 arms used):				10	11.1	175	14	2	7	4

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

WSN Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/1	4/2	4/3	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Orlando Ribalta	·	2.0 (27)	·	1	2.0	27	1	0	0	0
Jose A Ferrer	1.2 (29)	·	·	1	1.2	29	2	1	2	0
Brad Lord	·	1.0 (20)	·	1	1.0	20	0	0	1	0
Jorge Lopez	1.0 (25)	·	·	1	1.0	25	2	1	0	0
Lucas Sims	0.1 (2)	·	·	1	0.1	2	0	0	0	0
Team Totals (5 arms used):				5	6.0	103	5	2	3	0

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

Notable Trends

The Nationals are 14.3% (1-6) on the moneyline

The Nationals are 25% (1-3) on the moneyline as a home dog

The Nationals are 75% (3-1) to the over as a home dog

The Nationals are 14.3% (1-6) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Nationals are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home dog

The Nationals are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home dog

The Diamondbacks are 71.4% (5-2-1) to the over

The Diamondbacks are 71.4% (5-2-1) (L30 days) to the over

View All Records

Nationals (Home)

The Nationals are 14.3% (1-6) on the moneyline

The Nationals are 25% (1-3) on the moneyline as a home dog

The Nationals are 57.1% (4-3) to the under

The Nationals are 75% (3-1) to the over as a home dog

The Nationals are 14.3% (1-6) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Nationals are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home dog

The Nationals are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the under

The Nationals are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home dog

Diamondbacks (Away)

The Diamondbacks are 62.5% (5-3) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 100% (2-0) on the moneyline as an away fav

The Diamondbacks are 71.4% (5-2-1) to the over

The Diamondbacks are 100% (2-0) to the over as an away fav

The Diamondbacks are 62.5% (5-3) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away fav

The Diamondbacks are 71.4% (5-2-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Diamondbacks are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/31/24 2024	Nationals MacKenzie Gore (L)	4	@	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	5	+154	8.0	+1	O 9 +1.0
07/30/24 2024	Nationals Patrick Corbin (L)	0	@	Diamondbacks Ryne Nelson (R)	17	+140	9.0	+17	O 17 +8.0
07/29/24 2024	Nationals Mitchell Parker (L)	8	@	Diamondbacks Jordan Montgomery (L)	9	+144	9.0	+1	O 17 +8.0
06/20/24 2024	Nationals MacKenzie Gore (L)	2	vs.	Diamondbacks Ryne Nelson (R)	5	-138	9.0	+3	U 7 -2.0
06/19/24 2024	Nationals Patrick Corbin (L)	3	vs.	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	1	+144	9.5	-2	U 4 -5.5
06/18/24 2024	Nationals Jake Irvin (R)	0	vs.	Diamondbacks Slade Cecconi (R)	5	-126	9.0	+5	U 5 -4.0

Nationals as Home (3 games)		1.7	-	-	3.7	-106	9.2	+2.0	U 5.3 -3.8

All Games Avg (6 games)		2.8	-	-	7.0	+117	8.9	+4.2	O 9.8 +0.9

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 6 – 4 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Arizona Diamondbacks", home_team: "Washington Nationals", game_date: "2025-04-04" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report ARINo report WSHNo report

Notes

Diamondbacks

Nationals

Situational Factor(s)

Diamondbacks

Nationals

Filters

Schedules

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Nationals Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Nationals (Home)

Diamondbacks (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 6 – 4
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals