🎄 Welcome to the Christmas Edition of The Money Baller Report! 🎄
We hope you’re having a joyful holiday season filled with family, friends, and relaxation. As we wrap up the year, we want to express our gratitude for your continued support and trust. Your engagement and enthusiasm have made 2024 a fantastic year, and we look forward to bringing you even more success and prosperity in 2025.
Happy Holidays from all of us at The Money Baller – let’s close out the year strong!
Published: Wednesday, December 25, 2024 – 8:30 AM CST
Baller System: Playoff rematch unders are in play.
TMB Thoughts: With playoff rematch trends favoring lower scores and the Texans have really struggled with their offense as of late, we’re playing the Under 47 here.
We have nothing meaningful on the Chiefs/Steelers game.
NBA: Spurs @ Knicks
Spurs: 10-18-1 1H ATS – Slow starts continue to plague San Antonio, struggling to cover early.
Knicks: 9-4 1H ATS as home favorites – Consistently strong out of the gate at Madison Square Garden.
TMB Thoughts: Knicks have been a reliable 1H team, and the Spurs’ trends suggest this continues. We like Knicks 1H -5 to take advantage of this early edge.
NBA: Timberwolves @ Mavericks
Mavericks: 1-11 O/U holding opponents’ team total as home favorites – Dallas locks down at home, keeping opposing scores low.
Timberwolves: 7-21 Team Total O/U – Minnesota has been unreliable offensively all season long.
TMB Thoughts: The numbers overwhelmingly point toward the Timberwolves struggling to hit their mark. We’re backing Timberwolves Team Total Under 108, expecting Dallas’ defense to dictate the pace.
NBA: 76ers @ Celtics
Sixers: 7-20 1H O/U | 9-21 Team Total O/U – Philadelphia trends heavily towards low-scoring starts and full-game team total unders.
TMB Thoughts: While the trends are clear, the line feels sharp. We’re not seeing enough value to confidently back any angle, so this is a stay-away for now.
NBA: Lakers @ Warriors
Warriors: 7-21 1H Team Total O/U – Golden State has struggled to find offensive rhythm early in games.
TMB Thoughts: Despite the trend, there’s not enough conviction to place a bet. We’re passing on this one.
NBA: Nuggets @ Suns
Nuggets: 1-7 ATS as road favorites – Denver has struggled to cover this season, especially as road favorites.
Suns: 9-19 ATS | 4-11 ATS at home – Phoenix has been consistently underperformed against market expectations, especially at home.
TMB Thoughts: We’re leaning Nuggets -2.5, with a Baller System active on the Nuggets and Devin Booker out for the Suns.
Welcome to the NFL Week 16 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 15 Newsletter picks went 2-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 25-19-2.
These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:
Titans: 2-12 ATS this season
Ravens: 11-3 O/U this season
Panthers: 10-3-1 1H O/U this season
Dolphins: 2-12 1H Team Total O/U this season
Texans: 12-2 1H ATS this season (but only 6-8 full game ATS)
Steelers: 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season
Lions: 11-3 1H ATS this season
Bears: 4-10 1H ATS this season
Browns: 3-11 Team Total O/U this season
Bills: 12-2 Team Total O/U this season
Bengals: 10-4 O/U this season.
Cowboys: 4-13 ATS in L17 games as underdogs.
Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in L9 home games.
Not active this week or already passed:
Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
Bengals: 5-0 ATS as road favorites
Giants: 0-8 1H ATS as home underdogs
Broncos: 10-3-2 1H O/U
Chargers: 11-2-2 1H ATS this season
Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 3-12 O/U this season.
Bears: 0-7 1H ATS on the road this season.
Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
II. NFL Week 16 Newsletter – Totals Analysis
Scoring Trends and Week 15 Recap Scoring took another dip in Week 15, with games averaging 44.9 points per game (PPG). This marks a noticeable drop from the 47.3 PPG seen in Week 14, reinforcing the downward trajectory as the season heads into its final stretch. The median scoring also reflected this shift, landing at 43.5 points. The season-long scoring average remains at 45.6 PPG, while totals betting for Week 15 ended 7-8-1 O/U, showing a slightly under-leaning trend.
Season Trends and Outlook
Season-long totals record: 114-106-4 to the over.
Week 16 average total: 44.5, slightly below the season-long scoring average of 45.6 PPG.
While the over has held a slight edge throughout the season, recent weeks indicate a gradual shift toward lower-scoring games, aligning with historical late-season patterns.
Key Late-Season Factors Supporting Unders
Divisional Familiarity As teams meet for the second time in a season, defenses are more prepared for offensive schemes, limiting explosive plays. This often leads to more conservative play-calling and defensive adjustments, keeping scores in check.
Playoff Contenders Tightening Up With playoff spots at stake, contenders shift focus to minimizing mistakes. Strategies emphasize ball security and field position over aggressive, high-risk plays, which can naturally lead to lower-scoring affairs.
Weather Conditions December football in outdoor stadiums introduces unpredictable weather variables. Cold temperatures, wind, and precipitation can disrupt passing and kicking efficiency, forcing teams to lean on their run games and drain the clock.
Week 16 Takeaways The combination of reduced scoring and a slightly lower average total for Week 16 signals that oddsmakers are starting to price in these late-season dynamics. Nevertheless, this environment creates opportunities for sharp bettors to identify value, particularly in divisional matchups and games with playoff implications.
Staying ahead of market shifts and recognizing situational factors will be crucial for success in totals betting as the regular season winds down. Focus on weather reports, divisional rivalries, and teams in playoff contention to pinpoint the best under opportunities.
III. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite
Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 53-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 9-3 ATS this season.
Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.
This is active to play on the Lions (vs. Bears) in Week 16.
IV. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss
Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 162-108-3 ATS (59.9%). Backing this has gone 11-5 ATS this season.
By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.
This is active to play on the Broncos (fade the Chargers) in Week 16. (This lost on Thursday Night Football)
When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.6% clip, going 155-119-10 ATS. (6-4 ATS this season)
Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.
Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 46-31-4 ATS (59.7%) since 2015. Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.
Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.
This is active to play on the Bills -14 this week against the Patriots and Packers -14 against the Saints.
NFL Week 16 Newsletter – Breakdowns
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Game Breakdown: The Detroit Lions are in prime position for a bounce-back performance as they face the struggling Chicago Bears. The Bears are facing a challenging set of circumstances, coming off a short week after their Monday Night Football game and already looking ahead to a Thursday Night Football contest. This situational disadvantage is compounded by their return home after three consecutive road games, often a spot associated with letdown performances.
For the Lions, the injury report earlier in the week painted a concerning picture, but the reality has turned out to be less severe. While David Montgomery will sit this game out, Jahmyr Gibbs is more than ready to take on the primary rushing duties. On the other hand, the Bears continue to spiral downward, having lost eight straight games.
Historical Trends Favor the Lions: Since 2018, road favorites of 2.5 points or more who are coming off a loss as home favorites have delivered an impressive 53-22-4 ATS record.
Teams that unexpectedly lose at home as favorites often rebound with focused and dominant performances in their following game. Being listed as road favorites after such a loss indicates confidence from oddsmakers and suggests the potential for a commanding response.
Key Betting Trends:
Lions: 11-3 1H ATS (First Half Against the Spread)
Bears: 4-10 1H ATS
The Lions’ first-half dominance this season, coupled with the Bears’ struggles, makes this a strong play. Expect Detroit to come out aggressive and build an early lead against a weary Chicago team.
Pick:Lions 1H -3.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
Two Baller Systems are active on the under for this matchup, highlighting favorable conditions for a low-scoring affair. One system triggers when the market total is substantially lower than average scoring trends, while the other activates for home underdogs who have a Thursday game ahead.
Geno Smith is likely to be less than 100% as he faces a stout Vikings defense (#2 in Defensive DVOA). Both teams are in challenging situational spots – the Vikings are coming off short rest after a Monday Night Football game and have key divisional matchups looming against the Packers and Lions. Similarly, the Seahawks have a Thursday Night Football game on the horizon.
Seattle has consistently hit the under when playing as home underdogs, posting a 4-1 record to the under in those situations. With two strong defensive teams squaring off and situational angles aligning, this game leans heavily towards a lower total.
Pick: Under 42.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
The Buccaneers have consistently exceeded expectations this season with a 10-4 ATS record. Baker Mayfield continues to lead the charge effectively, and the offense benefits from strong contributions by Bucky Irving, who is confirmed to be available for this matchup. With the Atlanta Falcons close behind in the divisional race, the Buccaneers must maintain their winning momentum.
Conversely, the Dallas Cowboys find themselves in a less urgent position, as their season is effectively over. Cooper Rush steps in at quarterback, but there is little confidence in his ability to steer the team, especially following an outright win as underdogs. This creates a classic letdown scenario.
Key Betting Trends:
Cowboys: 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.
Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.
Expect Tampa Bay to continue their strong form and cover the spread against a Cowboys team with little left to play for.
Pacers Trends: 9-17 ATS overall, including 2-7 ATS as home favorites.
Pelicans Trends: 3-10 ATS on the road, struggling to cover.
Pacers Totals: 17-9 O/U, indicating a tendency for higher-scoring games.
TMB Thoughts: While the trends highlight struggles against the spread for both teams, there’s no compelling angle for a clear play in this matchup. This one’s a pass for us.
Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards
Wizards Trends:
7-16 1H ATS (2-10 ATS at home).
5-18 1H Team Total O/U, including 1-11 at home.
TMB Thoughts: The trends scream to fade the Wizards in the 1H, but situational factors and Baller Systems point to some angles favoring the Wizards. With the Celtics prone to letdowns in similar spots, we’ll take a cautious approach and sit this one out.
New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic
Magic: 9-1 ATS at home
Magic: 9-18 1H ATS
TMB thoughts: The Magic continue to thrive ATS at home, showcasing their depth and resilience. However, their 1H struggles and injuries (Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero) are notable. Meanwhile, the Knicks should come out with urgency after their disappointing NBA Cup loss as outright favorites. We’ll back the Knicks 1H-2, capitalizing on the contrast in early-game performance.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
Wolves: 7-17 Team Total O/U (3-9 TT O/U on the road
TMB thoughts: The Wolves’ offensive struggles are evident, ranking 20th in Offensive Rating. Both teams play at a slower pace, and Minnesota continues to underperform overall. The Wolves Team Total Under109.5 stands out as the play here.
Portland Trailblazers @ Phoenix Suns
Blazers: 7-16-2 1H O/U
TMB thoughts: While the Blazers’ trend toward 1H unders is intriguing, it’s not compelling enough to warrant a bet in this matchup. We’ll stay on the sidelines here.
Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors
Warriors Trends:
6-18 1H Team Total O/U this season.
0-4 1H Team Total O/U as home underdogs.
Mavericks Trends:
Opponents’ 1H Team Total O/U: 8-17.
TMB Thoughts: The Warriors have been historically slow starters, particularly at home as underdogs. Coupled with the Mavericks’ solid defensive performances in the first half, the Warriors 1H Team Total Under58 looks like a strong play here.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers
Grizzlies Trends:
19-7 1H ATS (5-1 1H ATS as road favorites).
Opponents’ 1H Team Total: 8-18 O/U.
Lakers Trends:
1-9 Team Total O/U as underdogs.
2-8 1H O/U as underdogs.
TMB Thoughts: The numbers strongly favor fading the Lakers’ offense in the first half. With the Grizzlies excelling defensively and the Lakers consistently falling short of their 1H scoring expectations as underdogs, the Grizzlies 1H ATS -2 (up to -2.5) and Lakers 1H Team Total Under 56.5 are recommended plays. Expect a slow start from the Lakers in this spot.
Welcome to a special edition Money Baller NBA Cup Report! Today’s report is FREE to the public – thank you for visiting. Use code ‘NBA50’ for 50% off your first payment. Also, we are offering a 3-day free trial for you to get a free preview before you commit.
Published: Saturday, December 14, 2024 – 3:00 PM CST
The Hawks have been in excellent form, winning 7 of their last 8 games.
17-9 O/U record this season.
Milwaukee Bucks:
The Bucks have struggled to cover at home, with a 9-15 ATS record. The Bucks have underperformed and shown inconsistency all season long.
Baller Systems Analysis
Two active Baller Systems favor the Under:
Falling Line System: Targets the Hawks, where the total drops in consecutive games—a signal for defensive adjustments and lower-scoring outcomes.
Rematch System: Highlights lower-scoring trends in games played within 10 days of a prior matchup, particularly when the total line is set lower than the previous meeting.
TMB Thoughts
This high-stakes game sees both teams looking to assert dominance in the Eastern Conference, but the trends and systems suggest a tighter defensive battle than expected. Under 232.5 is the play here.
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Houston Rockets:
The Rockets have been strong against the spread (ATS), boasting a 17-8 1H ATS record and a 16-9 overall ATS record this season.
Their defense has been key to their success, leading to frequent low-scoring first halves.
Oklahoma City Thunder:
The Thunder have also been reliable ATS, sitting at 15-8-1 overall ATS.
Totals Trends
Both teams show a tendency for first-half unders:
Rockets:9-16 1H O/U
Thunder:10-14 1H O/U
Two Baller Systems align on the Under for this matchup:
Lower Totals System: Targets games where the posted total is notably lower than recent averages, signaling a potential defensive slugfest.
Elite Matchup System: Focuses on matchups between two top-performing conference teams (win percentage of 60% or greater), which historically trend toward lower-scoring games due to tighter defense and playoff-like intensity.
TMB Thoughts
Given both teams’ strong trends toward lower-scoring first halves, combined with the active Baller Systems, 1H under 106 is the recommended play. This sets up to be a competitive, defense-first start in the exciting Western Conference NBA Cup quarterfinals.
Welcome to a special edition Money Baller NBA Cup Report. We went 4-2 on our featured picks on Sunday on the NBA Baller Report and 2-0 in the NFL Week 14 Newsletter!
Published: Monday, December 9, 2024 – 11:14 PM CST
The Magic continue to struggle in the first half, holding an 8-18 1H ATS record overall and an even worse 1-7 1H ATS as road underdogs.
Key Absences: The Magic will be without key players Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, which significantly impacts their offensive firepower and versatility.
Bucks Dynamics: Expect Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo to step up in a meaningful game.
TMB Thoughts: With the Magic’s poor 1H record and the absence of two of their best players, the Bucks are in an ideal spot to take early control. We recommend playing Bucks 1H ATS, with confidence up to Bucks 1H -4.5. No official lines were posted at the time of writing, but this setup aligns strongly with first-half trends and player availability.
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Mavericks Trends: Dallas has been strong against the spread, holding a 15-9 ATS record this season and excelling as an underdog of 2.5 points or more with a 6-1 ATS mark. Additionally, they have consistently hit overs in this spot, going 7-0 O/U and 7-0 on Team Total Overs as a road underdog.
Thunder Trends: Oklahoma City also has an impressive 14-8-1 ATS record.
Game Dynamics: A Baller System identifies unders as a strong play in matchups between elite conference teams. Despite Dallas’s recent trend toward overs, both teams’ defensive capabilities and the stakes of this matchup suggest a lower-scoring affair.
TMB Thoughts: In what could be a tightly contested game between two of the West’s best teams, we support the Under 231.5. The line feels inflated for teams that can buckle down defensively in high-stakes games. Also, we lean backing the Thunder -4, an elite home team seeking revenge.
