NBA Betting | themoneyballer.com

NBA WNBA NFL MLB

Updated: 12/10/25 8:07 a.m.

7:30 p.m.
Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Suns: 14-10 (58.3%)

Thunder: 23-1 (95.8%)

Line: -14.5

Total: 225.5

Open: -15.5

Open: 224.5

Notes

Suns

Situational Factor(s)

In-season revenge

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller System(s)

Fade team off road win where they made many 3s with good FG%

Thunder

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Fade team off a close win by small margin

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Thunder

58.75% probability

Total Recommendation

No Play

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Recommendation
Rating Differentials	Thunder
Defensive Differentials	Neutral
Broad Feature	Thunder
RMSE/MAE	Thunder (2x)
Cover Summary	Thunder
Pace Focused	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Thunder \| No Total Edge

Notable Trends

The Suns are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) against the spread

The Suns are 85.7% (6-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Suns are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

View All Records

Thunder (Home)

The Thunder are 54.2% (13-11) against the spread

The Thunder are 54.5% (6-5) against the spread at home

The Thunder are 54.2% (13-11) against the spread as a fav

The Thunder are 54.5% (6-5) against the spread as a home fav

The Thunder are 54.2% (13-11) to the over/under

The Thunder are 54.5% (6-5) to the over/under at home

The Thunder are 54.2% (13-11) to the over/under as a fav

The Thunder are 54.5% (6-5) to the over/under as a home fav

The Thunder are 57.1% (8-6) (L14) against the spread

The Thunder are 57.1% (4-3) (L14) against the spread at home

The Thunder are 57.1% (8-6) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Thunder are 57.1% (4-3) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Thunder are 50% (7-7) (L14) to the over/under

The Thunder are 42.9% (3-4) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Thunder are 50% (7-7) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Thunder are 42.9% (3-4) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Suns (Away)

The Suns are 66.7% (16-8) against the spread

The Suns are 58.3% (7-5) against the spread away

The Suns are 53.3% (8-7) against the spread as a dog

The Suns are 50% (5-5) against the spread as an away dog

The Suns are 45.8% (11-13) to the over/under

The Suns are 58.3% (7-5) to the over/under away

The Suns are 53.3% (8-7) to the over/under as a dog

The Suns are 60% (6-4) to the over/under as an away dog

The Suns are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) against the spread

The Suns are 85.7% (6-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Suns are 62.5% (5-3) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Suns are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Suns are 42.9% (6-8) (L14) to the over/under

The Suns are 57.1% (4-3) (L14) to the over/under away

The Suns are 50% (4-4) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Suns are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Thunder	123	Home	Suns	119	-14.5	223.5	-4	242
04/09/25	2024	Thunder	125	Away	Suns	112	-7.5	229.0	-13	237
02/05/25	2024	Thunder	140	Home	Suns	109	-13.5	230.5	-31	249
11/15/24	2024	Thunder	99	Home	Suns	83	-8.0	228.0	-16	182
03/29/24	2023	Thunder	128	Home	Suns	103	+1.5	226.5	-25	231
03/03/24	2023	Thunder	118	Away	Suns	110	-4.5	234.0	-8	228
11/12/23	2023	Thunder	111	Away	Suns	99	+4.0	231.5	-12	210
Thunder as Home (4 games)			122.5	-	-	103.5	-8.6	227.1	-19.0	226.0
All Games Avg (7 games)			120.6	-	-	105.0	-6.1	229.0	-15.6	225.6

Schedules

Suns Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/20/25	2025	Suns	-	away	Warriors	-	-	-	-	-
12/18/25	2025	Suns	-	home	Warriors	-	-	-	-	-
12/10/25	2025	Suns	-	away	Thunder	-	+14.5	225.5	-	-
12/08/25	2025	Suns	108	away	Timberwolves	105	+8.0	226.0	-3	213
12/05/25	2025	Suns	98	away	Rockets	117	+8.5	219.5	+19	215
12/01/25	2025	Suns	125	away	Lakers	108	+5.5	231.5	-17	233
11/29/25	2025	Suns	112	home	Nuggets	130	+4.0	233.5	+18	242
11/28/25	2025	Suns	119	away	Thunder	123	+14.5	223.5	+4	242
11/26/25	2025	Suns	112	away	Kings	100	-4.5	233.5	-12	212
11/24/25	2025	Suns	92	home	Rockets	114	+6.5	222.5	+22	206
11/23/25	2025	Suns	111	home	Spurs	102	-1.5	234.0	-9	213
11/21/25	2025	Suns	114	home	Timberwolves	113	+4.5	230.5	-1	227
11/18/25	2025	Suns	127	away	Trailblazers	110	+2.5	235.5	-17	237
Away Games Avg (6 games)			114.8	-	-	110.5	+5.8	228.3	-4.3	225.3
All Games Avg (10 games)			111.8	-	-	112.2	+4.8	229.0	+0.4	224.0

Thunder Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/19/25	2025	Thunder	-	away	Timberwolves	-	-	-	-	-
12/17/25	2025	Thunder	-	home	Clippers	-	-	-	-	-
12/10/25	2025	Thunder	-	home	Suns	-	-14.5	225.5	-	-
12/07/25	2025	Thunder	131	away	Jazz	101	-11.5	233.5	-30	232
12/05/25	2025	Thunder	132	home	Mavericks	111	-15.5	229.0	-21	243
12/02/25	2025	Thunder	124	away	Warriors	112	-11.0	223.5	-12	236
11/30/25	2025	Thunder	123	away	Trailblazers	115	-11.5	234.0	-8	238
11/28/25	2025	Thunder	123	home	Suns	119	-14.5	223.5	-4	242
11/26/25	2025	Thunder	113	home	Timberwolves	105	-10.5	226.5	-8	218
11/23/25	2025	Thunder	122	home	Trailblazers	95	-16.5	233.5	-27	217
11/21/25	2025	Thunder	144	away	Jazz	112	-16.5	234.5	-32	256
11/19/25	2025	Thunder	113	home	Kings	99	-18.5	232.5	-14	212
11/17/25	2025	Thunder	126	away	Pelicans	109	-18.5	222.5	-17	235
Home Games Avg (5 games)			120.6	-	-	105.8	-15.1	229.0	-14.8	226.4
All Games Avg (10 games)			125.1	-	-	107.8	-14.5	229.3	-17.3	232.9

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

10:00 p.m.
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers

Spurs: 16-7 (69.6%)

Lakers: 17-6 (73.9%)

Line: -5.5

Total: 238.5

Open: -4.5

Open: 234.5

Notes

Spurs

Situational Factor(s)

In-season revenge

Lakers

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Lakers

54.06% probability

Total Recommendation

Under

58.75% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Recommendation
Rating Differentials	Neutral
Defensive Differentials	Neutral
Broad Feature	Neutral
RMSE/MAE	Lakers
Cover Summary	Lakers
Pace Focused	Under
Total Summary	Under
OVERALL	Lakers \| Under

Notable Trends

The Lakers are 100% (10-0) to the over/under at home

The Lakers are 100% (6-0) to the over/under as a home fav

The Lakers are 100% (5-0) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Lakers are 100% (5-0) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

View All Records

Lakers (Home)

The Lakers are 63.6% (14-8-1) against the spread

The Lakers are 55.6% (5-4-1) against the spread at home

The Lakers are 63.6% (7-4-1) against the spread as a fav

The Lakers are 60% (3-2-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Lakers are 69.6% (16-7) to the over/under

The Lakers are 100% (10-0) to the over/under at home

The Lakers are 58.3% (7-5) to the over/under as a fav

The Lakers are 100% (6-0) to the over/under as a home fav

The Lakers are 53.8% (7-6-1) (L14) against the spread

The Lakers are 50% (2-2-1) (L14) against the spread at home

The Lakers are 55.6% (5-4-1) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Lakers are 50% (2-2-1) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Lakers are 57.1% (8-6) (L14) to the over/under

The Lakers are 100% (5-0) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Lakers are 60% (6-4) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Lakers are 100% (5-0) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Spurs (Away)

The Spurs are 52.4% (11-10-2) against the spread

The Spurs are 41.7% (5-7) against the spread away

The Spurs are 62.5% (5-3) against the spread as a dog

The Spurs are 57.1% (4-3) against the spread as an away dog

The Spurs are 56.5% (13-10) to the over/under

The Spurs are 66.7% (8-4) to the over/under away

The Spurs are 50% (4-4) to the over/under as a dog

The Spurs are 42.9% (3-4) to the over/under as an away dog

The Spurs are 50% (7-7) (L14) against the spread

The Spurs are 37.5% (3-5) (L14) against the spread away

The Spurs are 50% (3-3) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Spurs are 50% (3-3) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Spurs are 57.1% (8-6) (L14) to the over/under

The Spurs are 62.5% (5-3) (L14) to the over/under away

The Spurs are 50% (3-3) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Spurs are 50% (3-3) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/05/25	2025	Lakers	118	Home	Spurs	116	+1.5	228.5	-2	234
03/17/25	2024	Lakers	125	Home	Spurs	109	-8.5	231.5	-16	234
01/13/25	2024	Lakers	102	Home	Spurs	126	-4.5	221.5	+24	228
11/27/24	2024	Lakers	119	Away	Spurs	101	-2.0	228.5	-18	220
11/15/24	2024	Lakers	120	Away	Spurs	115	-2.5	227.5	-5	235
02/23/24	2023	Lakers	123	Home	Spurs	118	-10.0	241.0	-5	241
12/15/23	2023	Lakers	115	Away	Spurs	129	-4.5	236.0	+14	244
12/13/23	2023	Lakers	122	Away	Spurs	119	-3.5	233.0	-3	241
Lakers as Home (4 games)			117.0	-	-	117.3	-5.4	230.6	+0.3	234.3
All Games Avg (8 games)			118.0	-	-	116.6	-4.3	230.9	-1.4	234.6

Schedules

Spurs Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/19/25	2025	Spurs	-	away	Hawks	-	-	-	-	-
12/17/25	2025	Spurs	-	home	Wizards	-	-	-	-	-
12/10/25	2025	Spurs	-	away	Lakers	-	+5.5	238.5	-	-
12/08/25	2025	Spurs	135	away	Pelicans	132	-8.5	237.5	-3	267
12/05/25	2025	Spurs	117	away	Cavaliers	130	+5.0	239.5	+13	247
12/03/25	2025	Spurs	114	away	Magic	112	+8.5	235.5	-2	226
12/02/25	2025	Spurs	126	home	Grizzlies	119	-5.0	232.5	-7	245
11/30/25	2025	Spurs	112	away	Timberwolves	125	+4.5	234.0	+13	237
11/28/25	2025	Spurs	139	away	Nuggets	136	+7.0	238.5	-3	275
11/26/25	2025	Spurs	115	away	Trailblazers	102	+1.0	240.0	-13	217
11/23/25	2025	Spurs	102	away	Suns	111	+1.5	234.0	+9	213
11/20/25	2025	Spurs	135	home	Hawks	126	-1.5	233.5	-9	261
11/18/25	2025	Spurs	111	home	Grizzlies	101	-6.5	234.5	-10	212
Away Games Avg (7 games)			119.1	-	-	121.1	+2.7	237.0	+2.0	240.3
All Games Avg (10 games)			120.6	-	-	119.4	+0.6	236.0	-1.2	240.0

Lakers Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/20/25	2025	Lakers	-	away	Clippers	-	-	-	-	-
12/18/25	2025	Lakers	-	away	Jazz	-	-	-	-	-
12/10/25	2025	Lakers	-	home	Spurs	-	-5.5	238.5	-	-
12/07/25	2025	Lakers	112	away	Seventysixers	108	-2.5	233.5	-4	220
12/05/25	2025	Lakers	105	away	Celtics	126	+9.0	227.0	+21	231
12/04/25	2025	Lakers	123	away	Raptors	120	+2.5	228.5	-3	243
12/01/25	2025	Lakers	108	home	Suns	125	-5.5	231.5	+17	233
11/30/25	2025	Lakers	133	home	Pelicans	121	-15.5	228.5	-12	254
11/28/25	2025	Lakers	129	home	Mavericks	119	-10.0	232.5	-10	248
11/25/25	2025	Lakers	135	home	Clippers	118	-6.0	227.5	-17	253
11/23/25	2025	Lakers	108	away	Jazz	106	-9.0	245.0	-2	214
11/18/25	2025	Lakers	140	home	Jazz	126	-12.5	239.5	-14	266
11/15/25	2025	Lakers	119	away	Bucks	95	+2.0	230.0	-24	214
Home Games Avg (5 games)			129.0	-	-	121.8	-9.9	231.9	-7.2	250.8
All Games Avg (10 games)			121.2	-	-	116.4	-4.8	232.4	-4.8	237.6

7:30 p.m.
Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Notes

Suns

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Thunder

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Thunder (Home)

Suns (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Suns Schedule

Thunder Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

10:00 p.m.
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers

Notes

Spurs

Situational Factor(s)

Lakers

Situational Factor(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Lakers (Home)

Spurs (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Spurs Schedule

Lakers Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Premium Content

7:30 p.m. Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Notes

Suns

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Thunder

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Thunder (Home)

Suns (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Suns Schedule

Thunder Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

10:00 p.m. San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers

Notes

Spurs

Situational Factor(s)

Lakers

Situational Factor(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Lakers (Home)

Spurs (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Spurs Schedule

Lakers Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

7:30 p.m.
Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder

10:00 p.m.
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers