New York Knicks -4.5 (-110), 1 unit, DraftKings (-110)
New York Knicks (4-4) visit the Cleveland Cavaliers (5-4).
Cleveland comes in on the 2nd game of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 nights and 4th game in 6 nights, while the Knicks carry a rest advantage into this one. The Baller System notes New York as well-rested with two or more days of rest, and the "Back big road favs with rest advantage laying short number" system has hit historically at 38-23-3 (62.3%) all time.
Cleveland is also banged up, with Jarrett Allen, Jaylon Tyson, and Nae'Qwan Tomlin all out, while New York's injury report shows just Josh Hart as a loss.
Historical Matchups: In the last 2 seasons, the Knicks have owned this series, with the All Games Avg showing Cleveland scoring just 106.0 points per game to New York's 116.3, and Cleveland as the home team has lost by an average margin of +11.7 in those meetings.
Statistical Edges: New York's Defensive Rating of 108.71 ranks 6th, well ahead of Cleveland's 112.17 at 12th, and the Knicks also hold the clear edge in Points Allowed per game, 105.13 (3rd) versus Cleveland's 114.67 (19th). New York is also stingy on the offensive glass against, ranking 1st in OReb% Allowed at 23.0%, and leads in Fast Break Points Allowed at 11.13 (1st) compared to Cleveland's 16.44 (25th).
Trends to Note: Cleveland has struggled badly as a home favorite this season, going 1-3 ATS as a home dog aside, but more notably the Cavaliers are just 40% (2-3) against the spread at home and 33.3% (3-6) against the spread overall.
Cleveland's shorthanded frontcourt and tired legs run right into a Knicks defense that ranks top-10 in points allowed and defensive rating, with history on their side too. Take New York Knicks -4.5.
Data: the New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers matchup page on ChrisBeCappinn (Past Matchups · Team Stats · Notable Trends · Records · Injury Report).