Houston Rockets -6.5 (-116), 1 unit, Kalshi (-116)
I think fading PHX after they beat one of the worst teams in the league (ORL) makes a ton of sense here; it’s also 3rd in 4 and 4th in 6 for PHX.
What’s better is that we get HOU off a loss vs MIN; they have two days of rest in spot; perfect for a bounce back to get back to their winning and covering ways (7-2 ATS).
Starting with net rating, HOU is first in the league at a +10.63 while PHX is bottom 6 at -7.65. HOU also has some key advantages in this game including 2nd chance points where they are 12th while PHX, who will continue to be without Mark Williams, allows the 2nd most. PHX is also fouling at the 5th highest rate and HOU is inside the top 10 in FT attempts. Last but not least, HOU is shooting the 3 well and defending it well (both inside the top 10) while PHX is 29th in opp ATB3 FG%.
HOU should be able to score and get the stops necessary to cover the -6.5 spread here.
Data: the Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns matchup page on ChrisBeCappinn (Past Matchups · Team Stats · Notable Trends · Records · Injury Report).