WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 82 – 92
New York Liberty @ Atlanta Dream

Liberty: 28-18 (60.9%) | Market Rating: +2.39

Dream: 32-14 (69.6%) | Market Rating: +5.44 | Home Court: +2.3 pts

Line: -4.5

Total: 173.0

Open: -4

Open: 173

Team totals: Liberty 84.5 · Dream 88.5

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Injury Report as of Oct 4, 11:47 PM ET NYL1 Out ATL2 Out

New York Liberty

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Satou Sabally	16.8	Out	out Updated Jun 27

Not in rotation / low minutes: Annika Soltau, Elizabeth Balogun, Manuela Puoch, Seehia Ridard

Atlanta Dream

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Allisha Gray	32.0	Out	Gray (hand) exited to the locker room in the second quarter of Sunday's Game 1 against the Liberty and will not return, Alexa Philippou of ESPN.com reports. She'll finish with seven points (1-5 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 4-5 FT), one rebound and one steal in 11 minutes. Updated Oct 4
Brionna Jones	16.9	Out	Jones will miss the remainder of the season after sustaining a left leg injury against the Sun on Aug. 13, Annie Costabile of The Athletic reports. Updated Aug 14

Not in rotation / low minutes: Matilde Villa

MPG this season's minutes per game.
’25 last season's average: he hasn't appeared yet this season.
Not in rotation / low minutes under 10 MPG in both seasons.
Updated the first report with his current status, looking back 120 days at most. “Or earlier” means it reaches the oldest report we have.

Notes

Liberty

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Double digit, in season revenge

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Rest on the Road

Dream

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Fade rusty road team off 4+ days rest

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model only runs during the regular season.

Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Liberty Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/09/26 2026	Liberty	-	vs.	Dream	-	-4.0	170.5	-	-
10/07/26 2026	Liberty	-	@	Dream	-	+2.0	170.5	-	-
10/04/26 2026	Liberty	-	@	Dream	-	+4.5	173.0	-	-
09/29/26	Liberty	87	vs.	Lynx	71	+3.5	174.0	-16	U 158 -16.0
2026	ORtg: 125.3 DRtg: 102.3 Pace: 69.4			ORtg: 102.3 DRtg: 125.3 Pace: 69.4
09/27/26	Liberty	91	@	Lynx	75	+7.0	174.5	-16	U 166 -8.5
2026	ORtg: 113.1 DRtg: 93.2 Pace: 80.5			ORtg: 93.2 DRtg: 113.1 Pace: 80.5
09/23/26	Liberty	65	vs.	Dream	83	+4.5	174.0	+18	U 148 -26.0
2026	ORtg: 86.3 DRtg: 110.2 Pace: 75.3			ORtg: 110.2 DRtg: 86.3 Pace: 75.3
09/21/26	Liberty	84	vs.	Dream	95	+1.5	177.5	+11	O 179 +1.5
2026	ORtg: 104.1 DRtg: 117.7 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 117.7 DRtg: 104.1 Pace: 80.7
09/20/26	Liberty	106	@	Tempo	69	-15.5	176.5	-37	U 175 -1.5
2026	ORtg: 134.5 DRtg: 87.5 Pace: 78.8			ORtg: 87.5 DRtg: 134.5 Pace: 78.8
09/18/26	Liberty	93	@	Lynx	81	+6.5	177.5	-12	U 174 -3.5
2026	ORtg: 107.9 DRtg: 94.0 Pace: 86.2			ORtg: 94.0 DRtg: 107.9 Pace: 86.2
08/29/26	Liberty	85	vs.	Sky	66	-8.5	181.0	-19	U 151 -30.0
2026	ORtg: 106.4 DRtg: 82.6 Pace: 79.9			ORtg: 82.6 DRtg: 106.4 Pace: 79.9
08/27/26	Liberty	60	vs.	Valkyries	79	-3.0	162.0	+19	U 139 -23.0
2026	ORtg: 86.4 DRtg: 113.8 Pace: 69.4			ORtg: 113.8 DRtg: 86.4 Pace: 69.4
08/22/26	Liberty	109	vs.	Fever	102	-1.5	187.0	-7	O 211 +24.0
2026	ORtg: 130.1 DRtg: 121.8 Pace: 83.8			ORtg: 121.8 DRtg: 130.1 Pace: 83.8
08/18/26	Liberty	86	@	Sky	93	-4.0	180.0	+7	U 179 -1.0
2026	ORtg: 101.5 DRtg: 109.8 Pace: 84.7			ORtg: 109.8 DRtg: 101.5 Pace: 84.7

Away Games Avg (4 games)		94.0	-	-	79.5	-1.5	177.1	-14.5 +13.0	U 173.5 -3.6
	ORtg: 114.2 DRtg: 96.1 Pace: 82.5			ORtg: 96.1 DRtg: 114.2 Pace: 82.5

All Games Avg (10 games)		86.6	-	-	81.4	-1.0	176.4	-5.2 +4.3	U 168.0 -8.4
	ORtg: 109.6 DRtg: 103.3 Pace: 78.9			ORtg: 103.3 DRtg: 109.6 Pace: 78.9

Dream Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/09/26 2026	Dream	-	@	Liberty	-	+4.0	170.5	-	-
10/07/26 2026	Dream	-	vs.	Liberty	-	-2.0	170.5	-	-
10/04/26 2026	Dream	-	vs.	Liberty	-	-4.5	173.0	-	-
09/30/26	Dream	93	@	Mystics	75	-3.5	167.0	-18	O 168 +1.0
2026	ORtg: 123.9 DRtg: 100.0 Pace: 75.0			ORtg: 100.0 DRtg: 123.9 Pace: 75.0
09/27/26	Dream	92	vs.	Mystics	77	-7.5	164.0	-15	O 169 +5.0
2026	ORtg: 107.9 DRtg: 90.3 Pace: 85.3			ORtg: 90.3 DRtg: 107.9 Pace: 85.3
09/23/26	Dream	83	@	Liberty	65	-4.5	174.0	-18	U 148 -26.0
2026	ORtg: 110.2 DRtg: 86.3 Pace: 75.3			ORtg: 86.3 DRtg: 110.2 Pace: 75.3
09/21/26	Dream	95	@	Liberty	84	-1.5	177.5	-11	O 179 +1.5
2026	ORtg: 117.7 DRtg: 104.1 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 104.1 DRtg: 117.7 Pace: 80.7
09/19/26	Dream	106	vs.	Sky	81	-15.0	177.0	-25	O 187 +10.0
2026	ORtg: 120.1 DRtg: 91.8 Pace: 88.3			ORtg: 91.8 DRtg: 120.1 Pace: 88.3
09/17/26	Dream	103	vs.	Sun	59	-17.5	168.5	-44	U 162 -6.5
2026	ORtg: 129.9 DRtg: 74.4 Pace: 79.3			ORtg: 74.4 DRtg: 129.9 Pace: 79.3
08/30/26	Dream	89	vs.	Lynx	81	+2.5	177.0	-8	U 170 -7.0
2026	ORtg: 107.0 DRtg: 97.4 Pace: 83.1			ORtg: 97.4 DRtg: 107.0 Pace: 83.1
08/28/26	Dream	83	vs.	Fire	101	-13.0	178.5	+18	O 184 +5.5
2026	ORtg: 108.0 DRtg: 131.4 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 131.4 DRtg: 108.0 Pace: 76.9
08/24/26	Dream	78	@	Sparks	71	-10.5	182.0	-7	U 149 -33.0
2026	ORtg: 101.0 DRtg: 91.9 Pace: 77.2			ORtg: 91.9 DRtg: 101.0 Pace: 77.2
08/22/26	Dream	99	@	Mercury	89	-8.5	176.5	-10	O 188 +11.5
2026	ORtg: 122.9 DRtg: 110.5 Pace: 80.6			ORtg: 110.5 DRtg: 122.9 Pace: 80.6

Home Games Avg (5 games)		94.6	-	-	79.8	-10.1	173.0	-14.8 +4.7	O 174.4 +1.4
	ORtg: 114.6 DRtg: 97.1 Pace: 82.6			ORtg: 97.1 DRtg: 114.6 Pace: 82.6

All Games Avg (10 games)		92.1	-	-	78.3	-7.9	174.2	-13.8 +5.9	U 170.4 -3.8
	ORtg: 114.9 DRtg: 97.8 Pace: 80.2			ORtg: 97.8 DRtg: 114.9 Pace: 80.2

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Dream are 72.7% (16-6) to the over as a home fav

The Dream are 100% (7-0) (L30 days) against the spread

The Dream are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Dream are 100% (7-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Dream are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Dream are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Dream are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Dream are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Dream are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

The Liberty are 27.3% (6-16-2) against the spread away

The Liberty are 70.8% (17-7) to the over away

The Liberty are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Liberty are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Liberty are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under away

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Dream (Home)

The Dream are 48.9% (23-24) against the spread

The Dream are 45.8% (11-13) against the spread at home

The Dream are 46.5% (20-23) against the spread as a fav

The Dream are 40.9% (9-13) against the spread as a home fav

The Dream are 55.3% (26-21) to the over

The Dream are 66.7% (16-8) to the over at home

The Dream are 60.5% (26-17) to the over as a fav

The Dream are 72.7% (16-6) to the over as a home fav

The Dream are 100% (7-0) (L30 days) against the spread

The Dream are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Dream are 100% (7-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Dream are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Dream are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Dream are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Dream are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Dream are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Liberty (Away)

The Liberty are 41.3% (19-27-2) against the spread

The Liberty are 27.3% (6-16-2) against the spread away

The Liberty are 50% (6-6-1) against the spread as a dog

The Liberty are 50% (4-4-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Liberty are 54.2% (26-22) to the over

The Liberty are 70.8% (17-7) to the over away

The Liberty are 53.8% (7-6) to the over as a dog

The Liberty are 55.6% (5-4) to the over as an away dog

The Liberty are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Liberty are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Liberty are 50% (3-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Liberty are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Liberty are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Liberty are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under away

The Liberty are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Liberty are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/23/26	Dream	83	@	Liberty	65	-4.5	174.0	-18	U 148 -26.0
2026	ORtg: 110.2 DRtg: 86.3 Pace: 75.3			ORtg: 86.3 DRtg: 110.2 Pace: 75.3
09/21/26	Dream	95	@	Liberty	84	-1.5	177.5	-11	O 179 +1.5
2026	ORtg: 117.7 DRtg: 104.1 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 104.1 DRtg: 117.7 Pace: 80.7
06/11/26	Dream	90	vs.	Liberty	104	-3.5	165.0	+14	O 194 +29.0
2026	ORtg: 111.7 DRtg: 129.1 Pace: 80.6			ORtg: 129.1 DRtg: 111.7 Pace: 80.6
08/23/25	Dream	78	vs.	Liberty	62	-6.0	159.5	-16	U 140 -19.5
2025	ORtg: 113.4 DRtg: 90.1 Pace: 68.8			ORtg: 90.1 DRtg: 113.4 Pace: 68.8
07/13/25	Dream	72	@	Liberty	79	+6.0	164.5	+7	U 151 -13.5
2025	ORtg: 91.0 DRtg: 99.9 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 99.9 DRtg: 91.0 Pace: 79.1
06/29/25	Dream	90	vs.	Liberty	81	-1.5	165.5	-9	O 171 +5.5
2025	ORtg: 108.1 DRtg: 97.3 Pace: 83.2			ORtg: 97.3 DRtg: 108.1 Pace: 83.2
06/17/25	Dream	81	@	Liberty	86	+8.0	162.5	+5	O 167 +4.5
2025	ORtg: 104.8 DRtg: 111.3 Pace: 77.3			ORtg: 111.3 DRtg: 104.8 Pace: 77.3

Dream as Home (3 games)		86.0	-	-	82.3	-3.7	163.3	-3.7 0.0	O 168.3 +5.0
	ORtg: 111.1 DRtg: 105.5 Pace: 77.5			ORtg: 105.5 DRtg: 111.1 Pace: 77.5

All Games Avg (7 games)		84.1	-	-	80.1	-0.4	166.9	-4.0 +3.6	U 164.3 -2.6
	ORtg: 108.1 DRtg: 102.6 Pace: 77.9			ORtg: 102.6 DRtg: 108.1 Pace: 77.9

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 82 – 92 New York Liberty @ Atlanta Dream window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "New York Liberty", home_team: "Atlanta Dream", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report as of Oct 4, 11:47 PM ET NYL1 Out ATL2 Out

Notes

Liberty

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Dream

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Filters

Schedules

Liberty Schedule Follow global filters

Dream Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

Next Player Up

Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Dream (Home)

Liberty (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 82 – 92
New York Liberty @ Atlanta Dream