WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 63 – 83
Connecticut Sun @ Dallas Wings

Sun: 7-22 (24.1%) | Market Rating: -5.14

Wings: 18-11 (62.1%) | Market Rating: +0.65 | Home Court: +2.0 pts

Line: -11.0

Total: 173.5

Open: -11

Open: 172

Team totals: Sun 80.5 · Wings 92.5

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Injury Report as of Aug 2, 11:47 PM ET CON4 Out DALClean

Connecticut Sun

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Aaliyah Edwards	20.6	Out	Edwards (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Wings. Updated Jul 28
Brittney Griner	25.3	Out	Griner (knee) is out for Sunday's game against the Wings. Updated Jul 22
Hailey Van Lith	15.9	Out	out Updated Aug 2
Maria Kliundikova	11.3 ’25	Out	The Tempo traded Kliundikova's (not injury related) rights along with a second-round pick to the Sun in exchange for Aneesah Morrow, Myles Ehrlich of Winsidr.com reports. Updated Jul 31

Dallas Wings

No injuries listed.

MPG this season's minutes per game.
’25 last season's average: he hasn't appeared yet this season.
Not in rotation / low minutes under 10 MPG in both seasons.
Updated the first report with his current status, looking back 120 days at most. “Or earlier” means it reaches the oldest report we have.

Notes

Sun

Situational Factor(s)

Travel fatigue, at least fourth straight game on the road

In season revenge

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Wings

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller System(s)

Bounceback Road Favorite

Don't Be Scared to Shoot

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Sun

58.75% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Sun Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/13/26 2026	Sun	-	vs.	Dream	-	+10.0	173.5	-	-
08/07/26 2026	Sun	-	vs.	Mercury	-	+5.5	173.5	-	-
08/02/26 2026	Sun	-	@	Wings	-	+11.0	173.5	-	-
07/30/26	Sun	88	@	Sky	94	+5.5	176.5	+6	O 182 +5.5
2026	ORtg: 104.9 DRtg: 112.0 Pace: 83.9			ORtg: 112.0 DRtg: 104.9 Pace: 83.9
07/28/26	Sun	84	@	Mystics	92	+6.5	161.0	+8	O 176 +15.0
2026	ORtg: 105.4 DRtg: 115.5 Pace: 79.7			ORtg: 115.5 DRtg: 105.4 Pace: 79.7
07/22/26	Sun	88	@	Fever	123	+10.5	178.0	+35	O 211 +33.0
2026	ORtg: 102.0 DRtg: 142.5 Pace: 86.3			ORtg: 142.5 DRtg: 102.0 Pace: 86.3
07/19/26	Sun	63	@	Mercury	72	+4.5	165.0	+9	U 135 -30.0
2026	ORtg: 82.4 DRtg: 94.1 Pace: 76.5			ORtg: 94.1 DRtg: 82.4 Pace: 76.5
07/17/26	Sun	96	@	Mercury	83	+4.0	163.5	-13	O 179 +15.5
2026	ORtg: 117.6 DRtg: 101.6 Pace: 81.7			ORtg: 101.6 DRtg: 117.6 Pace: 81.7
07/14/26	Sun	90	vs.	Fire	87	-2.5	167.0	-3	O 177 +10.0
2026	ORtg: 116.3 DRtg: 112.5 Pace: 77.4			ORtg: 112.5 DRtg: 116.3 Pace: 77.4
07/10/26	Sun	64	vs.	Valkyries	79	+6.0	154.0	+15	U 143 -11.0
2026	ORtg: 87.6 DRtg: 108.1 Pace: 73.1			ORtg: 108.1 DRtg: 87.6 Pace: 73.1
07/08/26	Sun	80	vs.	Lynx	86	+6.5	166.5	+6	U 166 -0.5
2026	ORtg: 101.6 DRtg: 109.2 Pace: 78.8			ORtg: 109.2 DRtg: 101.6 Pace: 78.8
07/06/26	Sun	90	@	Lynx	89	+12.0	165.5	-1	O 179 +13.5
2026	ORtg: 111.2 DRtg: 110.0 Pace: 80.9			ORtg: 110.0 DRtg: 111.2 Pace: 80.9
07/02/26	Sun	83	vs.	Wings	86	+7.0	172.0	+3	U 169 -3.0
2026	ORtg: 102.1 DRtg: 105.8 Pace: 81.3			ORtg: 105.8 DRtg: 102.1 Pace: 81.3

Away Games Avg (6 games)		84.8	-	-	92.2	+7.2	168.3	+7.3 -0.2	O 177.0 +8.8
	ORtg: 103.9 DRtg: 112.6 Pace: 81.5			ORtg: 112.6 DRtg: 103.9 Pace: 81.5

All Games Avg (10 games)		82.6	-	-	89.1	+6.0	166.9	+6.5 -0.5	O 171.7 +4.8
	ORtg: 103.1 DRtg: 111.1 Pace: 79.9			ORtg: 111.1 DRtg: 103.1 Pace: 79.9

Wings Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/07/26 2026	Wings	-	vs.	Valkyries	-	-1.0	161.0	-	-
08/05/26 2026	Wings	-	@	Mystics	-	-2.0	167.5	-	-
08/02/26 2026	Wings	-	vs.	Sun	-	-11.0	173.5	-	-
07/31/26	Wings	75	@	Mystics	81	-3.5	167.5	+6	U 156 -11.5
2026	ORtg: 101.5 DRtg: 109.6 Pace: 73.9			ORtg: 109.6 DRtg: 101.5 Pace: 73.9
07/29/26	Wings	81	vs.	Dream	82	+1.5	182.0	+1	U 163 -19.0
2026	ORtg: 99.6 DRtg: 100.9 Pace: 81.3			ORtg: 100.9 DRtg: 99.6 Pace: 81.3
07/22/26	Wings	101	@	Fire	97	-7.5	178.0	-4	O 198 +20.0
2026	ORtg: 125.0 DRtg: 120.1 Pace: 80.8			ORtg: 120.1 DRtg: 125.0 Pace: 80.8
07/20/26	Wings	98	vs.	Liberty	99 OT	+4.5	174.5	+1	O 197 +22.5
2026	ORtg: 121.2 DRtg: 122.5 Pace: 71.8			ORtg: 122.5 DRtg: 121.2 Pace: 71.8
07/19/26	Wings	90	vs.	Sparks	82	-9.5	182.5	-8	U 172 -10.5
2026	ORtg: 111.9 DRtg: 102.0 Pace: 80.4			ORtg: 102.0 DRtg: 111.9 Pace: 80.4
07/12/26	Wings	96	vs.	Sky	91	-9.5	177.5	-5	O 187 +9.5
2026	ORtg: 121.5 DRtg: 115.1 Pace: 79.0			ORtg: 115.1 DRtg: 121.5 Pace: 79.0
07/10/26	Wings	108	@	Tempo	95	-7.5	178.5	-13	O 203 +24.5
2026	ORtg: 142.3 DRtg: 125.2 Pace: 75.9			ORtg: 125.2 DRtg: 142.3 Pace: 75.9
07/07/26	Wings	88	@	Liberty	77	+4.5	175.5	-11	U 165 -10.5
2026	ORtg: 111.8 DRtg: 97.8 Pace: 78.7			ORtg: 97.8 DRtg: 111.8 Pace: 78.7
07/05/26	Wings	89	@	Tempo	76	-6.5	185.5	-13	U 165 -20.5
2026	ORtg: 120.6 DRtg: 103.0 Pace: 73.8			ORtg: 103.0 DRtg: 120.6 Pace: 73.8
07/02/26	Wings	86	@	Sun	83	-7.0	172.0	-3	U 169 -3.0
2026	ORtg: 105.8 DRtg: 102.1 Pace: 81.3			ORtg: 102.1 DRtg: 105.8 Pace: 81.3

Home Games Avg (4 games)		91.3	-	-	88.5	-3.3	179.1	-2.8 -0.5	O 179.8 +0.6
	ORtg: 113.6 DRtg: 110.1 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 110.1 DRtg: 113.6 Pace: 78.2

All Games Avg (10 games)		91.2	-	-	86.3	-4.1	177.4	-4.9 +0.9	O 177.5 +0.2
	ORtg: 116.1 DRtg: 109.8 Pace: 77.7			ORtg: 109.8 DRtg: 116.1 Pace: 77.7

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Wings are 71.4% (10-4) to the under at home

The Wings are 75% (6-2) to the under as a home fav

The Sun are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Sun are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Sun are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over away

The Sun are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

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Wings (Home)

The Wings are 50% (15-15) against the spread

The Wings are 57.1% (8-6) against the spread at home

The Wings are 47.1% (8-9) against the spread as a fav

The Wings are 50% (4-4) against the spread as a home fav

The Wings are 55.2% (16-13-1) to the under

The Wings are 71.4% (10-4) to the under at home

The Wings are 56.3% (9-7-1) to the under as a fav

The Wings are 75% (6-2) to the under as a home fav

The Wings are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Wings are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Wings are 42.9% (3-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Wings are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Wings are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) to the under

The Wings are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Wings are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Wings are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Sun (Away)

The Sun are 46.7% (14-16) against the spread

The Sun are 37.5% (6-10) against the spread away

The Sun are 50% (13-13) against the spread as a dog

The Sun are 37.5% (6-10) against the spread as an away dog

The Sun are 53.3% (16-14) to the over

The Sun are 62.5% (10-6) to the over away

The Sun are 53.8% (14-12) to the under as a dog

The Sun are 62.5% (10-6) to the over as an away dog

The Sun are 40% (4-6) (L30 days) against the spread

The Sun are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Sun are 33.3% (3-6) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Sun are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Sun are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) to the over

The Sun are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over away

The Sun are 55.6% (5-4) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Sun are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/02/26	Wings	86	@	Sun	83	-7.0	172.0	-3	U 169 -3.0
2026	ORtg: 105.8 DRtg: 102.1 Pace: 81.3			ORtg: 102.1 DRtg: 105.8 Pace: 81.3
08/27/25	Wings	95	vs.	Sun	101	+1.0	166.5	+6	O 196 +29.5
2025	ORtg: 108.3 DRtg: 115.1 Pace: 87.7			ORtg: 115.1 DRtg: 108.3 Pace: 87.7
06/20/25	Wings	86	@	Sun	83	-4.5	164.5	-3	O 169 +4.5
2025	ORtg: 113.6 DRtg: 109.7 Pace: 75.7			ORtg: 109.7 DRtg: 113.6 Pace: 75.7
05/27/25	Wings	109	@	Sun	87	-4.5	163.5	-22	O 196 +32.5
2025	ORtg: 134.6 DRtg: 107.5 Pace: 81.0			ORtg: 107.5 DRtg: 134.6 Pace: 81.0

Wings as Home (1 games)		95.0	-	-	101.0	+1.0	166.5	+6.0 -5.0	O 196.0 +29.5
	ORtg: 108.3 DRtg: 115.1 Pace: 87.7			ORtg: 115.1 DRtg: 108.3 Pace: 87.7

All Games Avg (4 games)		94.0	-	-	88.5	-3.8	166.6	-5.5 +1.8	O 182.5 +15.9
	ORtg: 115.6 DRtg: 108.6 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 108.6 DRtg: 115.6 Pace: 81.4

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors. High Confidence: 10-9 (52.6%)	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials. High Confidence: 12-15 (44.4%)	Sun (2x)
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression. High Confidence: 19-19 (50%)	Sun (2x)
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate High Confidence: 32-48 (40%)	Neutral
Cover Summary	Sun
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics. Medium Confidence: 2-1 (66.7%)	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate Medium Confidence: 10-10 (50%)	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Sun \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 63 – 83 Connecticut Sun @ Dallas Wings window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Connecticut Sun", home_team: "Dallas Wings", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report as of Aug 2, 11:47 PM ET CON4 Out DALClean

Notes

Sun

Situational Factor(s)

Wings

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Sun Schedule Follow global filters

Wings Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Wings (Home)

Sun (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 63 – 83
Connecticut Sun @ Dallas Wings