WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 112 – 98
Indiana Fever @ Portland Fire

Fever: 18-10 (64.3%) | Market Rating: +2.03

Fire: 11-17 (39.3%) | Market Rating: -3.95 | Home Court: +0.9 pts

Line: +8.0

Total: 187.5

Open: +8

Open: 185.5

Team totals: Fever 97.5 · Fire 89.5

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Injury Report as of Jul 31, 11:47 PM ET IND1 Out PDX1 Out

Indiana Fever

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Damiris Dantas	8.2	Out	Dantas (knee) has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Fire. Updated Jul 21

Not in rotation / low minutes: Bree Hall, Ugonne Onyiah

Portland Fire

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Sarah Ashlee Barker	24.7	Out	The Fire announced Friday that Barker will undergo surgery to repair a torn ACL and will miss the remainder of the 2026 campaign. Updated Jul 22

Not in rotation / low minutes: Iyana Martin, Nika Muhl, Sania Feagin

MPG this season's minutes per game.
’25 last season's average: he hasn't appeared yet this season.
Not in rotation / low minutes under 10 MPG in both seasons.
Updated the first report with his current status, looking back 120 days at most. “Or earlier” means it reaches the oldest report we have.

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Double digit, in season revenge

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Fire

Situational Factor(s)

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Don't Be Scared to Shoot

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Fever

55.63% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/06/26 2026	Fever	-	vs.	Aces	-	-0.5	193.0	-	-
08/02/26 2026	Fever	-	@	Lynx	-	+5.5	191.5	-	-
07/31/26 2026	Fever	-	@	Fire	-	-8.0	187.5	-	-
07/28/26	Fever	105	@	Storm	95	-8.5	187.0	-10	O 200 +13.0
2026	ORtg: 136.3 DRtg: 123.3 Pace: 77.0			ORtg: 123.3 DRtg: 136.3 Pace: 77.0
07/22/26	Fever	123	vs.	Sun	88	-10.5	178.0	-35	O 211 +33.0
2026	ORtg: 142.5 DRtg: 102.0 Pace: 86.3			ORtg: 102.0 DRtg: 142.5 Pace: 86.3
07/18/26	Fever	108	vs.	Liberty	88	+1.5	184.0	-20	O 196 +12.0
2026	ORtg: 127.8 DRtg: 104.1 Pace: 84.5			ORtg: 104.1 DRtg: 127.8 Pace: 84.5
07/17/26	Fever	110	vs.	Storm	107	-8.5	177.5	-3	O 217 +39.5
2026	ORtg: 133.6 DRtg: 130.0 Pace: 82.3			ORtg: 130.0 DRtg: 133.6 Pace: 82.3
07/15/26	Fever	75	vs.	Valkyries	88	-2.5	166.5	+13	U 163 -3.5
2026	ORtg: 100.8 DRtg: 118.2 Pace: 74.4			ORtg: 118.2 DRtg: 100.8 Pace: 74.4
07/12/26	Fever	109	@	Aces	75	+5.5	181.0	-34	O 184 +3.0
2026	ORtg: 140.2 DRtg: 96.4 Pace: 77.8			ORtg: 96.4 DRtg: 140.2 Pace: 77.8
07/09/26	Fever	92	@	Mercury	89	-0.5	171.5	-3	O 181 +9.5
2026	ORtg: 117.4 DRtg: 113.6 Pace: 78.4			ORtg: 113.6 DRtg: 117.4 Pace: 78.4
07/08/26	Fever	92	@	Sparks	106	-6.0	181.5	+14	O 198 +16.5
2026	ORtg: 103.5 DRtg: 119.2 Pace: 88.9			ORtg: 119.2 DRtg: 103.5 Pace: 88.9
07/05/26	Fever	84	@	Aces	68	+3.0	180.5	-16	U 152 -28.5
2026	ORtg: 118.9 DRtg: 96.2 Pace: 70.7			ORtg: 96.2 DRtg: 118.9 Pace: 70.7
06/27/26	Fever	111	vs.	Sparks	87	-6.5	182.5	-24	O 198 +15.5
2026	ORtg: 130.4 DRtg: 102.2 Pace: 85.1			ORtg: 102.2 DRtg: 130.4 Pace: 85.1

Away Games Avg (5 games)		96.4	-	-	86.6	-1.3	180.3	-9.8 +8.5	O 183.0 +2.7
	ORtg: 123.2 DRtg: 109.8 Pace: 78.6			ORtg: 109.8 DRtg: 123.2 Pace: 78.6

All Games Avg (10 games)		100.9	-	-	89.1	-3.3	179.0	-11.8 +8.5	O 190.0 +11.0
	ORtg: 125.1 DRtg: 110.5 Pace: 80.5			ORtg: 110.5 DRtg: 125.1 Pace: 80.5

Fire Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/06/26 2026	Fire	-	vs.	Tempo	-	-2.5	187.0	-	-
08/02/26 2026	Fire	-	vs.	Sparks	-	-0.5	186.0	-	-
07/31/26 2026	Fire	-	vs.	Fever	-	+8.0	187.5	-	-
07/28/26	Fire	83	@	Aces	98	+12.5	176.5	+15	O 181 +4.5
2026	ORtg: 107.1 DRtg: 126.4 Pace: 77.5			ORtg: 126.4 DRtg: 107.1 Pace: 77.5
07/22/26	Fire	97	vs.	Wings	101	+7.5	178.0	+4	O 198 +20.0
2026	ORtg: 120.1 DRtg: 125.0 Pace: 80.8			ORtg: 125.0 DRtg: 120.1 Pace: 80.8
07/18/26	Fire	93	@	Lynx	101	+13.0	174.0	+8	O 194 +20.0
2026	ORtg: 116.3 DRtg: 126.3 Pace: 79.9			ORtg: 126.3 DRtg: 116.3 Pace: 79.9
07/16/26	Fire	75	@	Mystics	56	+6.0	163.0	-19	U 131 -32.0
2026	ORtg: 105.0 DRtg: 78.4 Pace: 71.5			ORtg: 78.4 DRtg: 105.0 Pace: 71.5
07/14/26	Fire	87	@	Sun	90	+2.5	167.0	+3	O 177 +10.0
2026	ORtg: 112.5 DRtg: 116.3 Pace: 77.4			ORtg: 116.3 DRtg: 112.5 Pace: 77.4
07/11/26	Fire	102	@	Dream	92	+12.5	174.0	-10	O 194 +20.0
2026	ORtg: 125.2 DRtg: 113.0 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 113.0 DRtg: 125.2 Pace: 81.4
07/09/26	Fire	80	vs.	Aces	88	+10.0	175.0	+8	U 168 -7.0
2026	ORtg: 102.8 DRtg: 113.0 Pace: 77.8			ORtg: 113.0 DRtg: 102.8 Pace: 77.8
07/04/26	Fire	77	@	Storm	72	+4.5	173.0	-5	U 149 -24.0
2026	ORtg: 91.1 DRtg: 85.2 Pace: 84.5			ORtg: 85.2 DRtg: 91.1 Pace: 84.5
06/28/26	Fire	123	@	Mystics	124 4OT	+7.0	167.5	+1	O 247 +79.5
2026	ORtg: 106.7 DRtg: 107.6 Pace: 102.4			ORtg: 107.6 DRtg: 106.7 Pace: 102.4
06/26/26	Fire	94	@	Sky	124	+6.0	173.5	+30	O 218 +44.5
2026	ORtg: 112.1 DRtg: 147.9 Pace: 83.8			ORtg: 147.9 DRtg: 112.1 Pace: 83.8

Home Games Avg (2 games)		88.5	-	-	94.5	+8.8	176.5	+6.0 +2.8	O 183.0 +6.5
	ORtg: 111.4 DRtg: 119.0 Pace: 79.3			ORtg: 119.0 DRtg: 111.4 Pace: 79.3

All Games Avg (10 games)		91.1	-	-	94.6	+8.2	172.2	+3.5 +4.7	O 185.7 +13.6
	ORtg: 109.9 DRtg: 113.9 Pace: 81.7			ORtg: 113.9 DRtg: 109.9 Pace: 81.7

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Fire are 70.8% (17-7-1) to the over as a dog

The Fire are 77.8% (7-2-1) to the over as a home dog

The Fever are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fever are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Fever are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Fever are 80% (8-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Fever are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over away

The Fever are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Fever are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away fav

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Fire (Home)

The Fire are 48.3% (14-15) against the spread

The Fire are 50% (7-7) against the spread at home

The Fire are 48% (12-13) against the spread as a dog

The Fire are 50% (5-5) against the spread as a home dog

The Fire are 64.3% (18-10-1) to the over

The Fire are 61.5% (8-5-1) to the over at home

The Fire are 70.8% (17-7-1) to the over as a dog

The Fire are 77.8% (7-2-1) to the over as a home dog

The Fire are 66.7% (6-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fire are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Fire are 66.7% (6-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Fire are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Fire are 66.7% (6-3) (L30 days) to the over

The Fire are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Fire are 66.7% (6-3) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Fire are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home dog

Fever (Away)

The Fever are 51.7% (15-14) against the spread

The Fever are 53.8% (7-6) against the spread away

The Fever are 54.5% (12-10) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 62.5% (5-3) against the spread as an away fav

The Fever are 65.5% (19-10) to the over

The Fever are 61.5% (8-5) to the over away

The Fever are 63.6% (14-8) to the over as a fav

The Fever are 62.5% (5-3) to the over as an away fav

The Fever are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fever are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Fever are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Fever are 80% (8-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Fever are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over away

The Fever are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Fever are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
05/30/26	Fire	100	vs.	Fever	84	+11.5	173.5	-16	O 184 +10.5
2026	ORtg: 130.1 DRtg: 109.3 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 109.3 DRtg: 130.1 Pace: 76.9
05/20/26	Fire	73	@	Fever	90	+10.0	175.5	+17	U 163 -12.5
2026	ORtg: 91.8 DRtg: 113.2 Pace: 79.5			ORtg: 113.2 DRtg: 91.8 Pace: 79.5

Fire as Home (1 games)		100.0	-	-	84.0	+11.5	173.5	-16.0 +27.5	O 184.0 +10.5
	ORtg: 130.1 DRtg: 109.3 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 109.3 DRtg: 130.1 Pace: 76.9

All Games Avg (2 games)		86.5	-	-	87.0	+10.8	174.5	+0.5 +10.3	U 173.5 -1.0
	ORtg: 110.9 DRtg: 111.2 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 111.2 DRtg: 110.9 Pace: 78.2

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors. High Confidence: 10-9 (52.6%)	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials. High Confidence: 12-15 (44.4%)	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression. High Confidence: 18-19 (48.6%)	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate High Confidence: 31-47 (39.7%)	Fever (2x)
Cover Summary	Fever
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics. Medium Confidence: 2-1 (66.7%)	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate Medium Confidence: 10-10 (50%)	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Fever \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 112 – 98 Indiana Fever @ Portland Fire window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Indiana Fever", home_team: "Portland Fire", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report as of Jul 31, 11:47 PM ET IND1 Out PDX1 Out

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Fire

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Fire Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Fire (Home)

Fever (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 112 – 98
Indiana Fever @ Portland Fire