MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 2 – 8
Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers

Rays: 2-3 (40.0%) | Drew Rasmussen (R): 0-1 (0.0%) | Market Rating: -0.2% (+101)

Brewers: 4-1 (80.0%) | Jacob Misiorowski (R): 1-0 (100.0%) | Market Rating: +4.0% (-117) | Home Field: +3.1% (-113)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Rays

+121

+1.5 (-183)

o3.5 (+115)

7.0

Brewers

-143

-1.5 (+153)

o3.5 (-116)

Open

Rays

+116

+1.5 (-186)

o3.5 (+115)

7.5

Brewers

-135

-1.5 (+155)

o3.5 (-116)

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report TBNo report MILNo report

Notes — no active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Rays

D. Rasmussen	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Brewers

J. Misiorowski	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Rays Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/04/26 2026	Rays Steven Matz (L)	-	@	Twins Mick Abel (R)	-	-111	8.0
04/03/26 2026	Rays Joe Boyle (R)	-	@	Twins Bailey Ober (R)	-	-106	7.5
04/01/26 2026	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	-	@	Brewers Jacob Misiorowski (R)	-	+119	7.0
03/31/26 2026	Rays Shane McClanahan (L)	2	@	Brewers Brandon Woodruff (R)	6	+113	7.5
03/30/26 2026	Rays Nick Martinez (R)	3	@	Brewers Kyle Harrison (L)	2	-	8.0
03/29/26 2026	Rays Steven Matz (L)	11	@	Cardinals Dustin May (R)	7	-114	8.0
03/28/26 2026	Rays Joe Boyle (R)	5	@	Cardinals Michael McGreevy (R)	6 F/10	-107	7.5
03/26/26 2026	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	7	@	Cardinals Matthew Liberatore (L)	9	-129	8.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/28/25 2025	Rays Ian Seymour (L)	4	@	Blue Jays Kevin Gausman (R)	13	+165	7.5
09/27/25 2025	Rays Joe Boyle (R)	1	@	Blue Jays Trey Yesavage (R)	5	+137	8.5
09/26/25 2025	Rays Adrian Houser (R)	2	@	Blue Jays Shane Bieber (R)	4	+192	-
09/25/25 2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	5	@	Orioles Cade Povich (L)	6	-118	8.5
09/24/25 2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	6	@	Orioles Tyler Wells (R)	2	+104	8.0

Away Games Avg (5 games this season)		5.6	-	-	6.0	-109	7.8

All Games Avg (5 games this season)		5.6	-	-	6.0	-109	7.8

Brewers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/04/26 2026	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	-	@	Royals Luinder Avila (R)	-	-120	8.5
04/03/26 2026	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	-	@	Royals Luinder Avila (R)	-	-	9.0
04/01/26 2026	Brewers Jacob Misiorowski (R)	-	vs.	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	-	-129	7.0
03/31/26 2026	Brewers Brandon Woodruff (R)	6	vs.	Rays Shane McClanahan (L)	2	-122	7.5
03/30/26 2026	Brewers Kyle Harrison (L)	2	vs.	Rays Nick Martinez (R)	3	-	8.0
03/29/26 2026	Brewers Brandon Sproat (R)	9	vs.	White Sox Anthony Kay (L)	7	-138	8.5
03/28/26 2026	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	6	vs.	White Sox Sean Burke (R)	1	-191	8.0
03/26/26 2026	Brewers Jacob Misiorowski (R)	14	vs.	White Sox Shane Smith (R)	2	-185	8.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
10/17/25 2025	Brewers Jose Quintana (L)	1	@	Dodgers Shohei Ohtani (R)	5	+163	7.5
10/16/25 2025	Brewers Aaron Ashby (L)	1	@	Dodgers Tyler Glasnow (R)	3	+140	7.5
10/14/25 2025	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	1	vs.	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	5	-	-
10/13/25 2025	Brewers Aaron Ashby (L)	1	vs.	Dodgers Blake Snell (L)	2	+127	7.5
10/11/25 2025	Brewers Trevor Megill (R)	3	vs.	Cubs Drew Pomeranz (L)	1	-135	7.5

Home Games Avg (5 games this season)		7.4	-	-	3.0	-156	8.0

All Games Avg (5 games this season)		7.4	-	-	3.0	-156	8.0

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Drew Rasmussen's mix vs. MIL bats

Drew Rasmussen's pitches			MIL hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Cutter	28.9%	89.9	21.9% 12th	30.4% 22nd	.324 2nd	.330 10th	.350 14th	.565 11th	.235 11th	38.2% 13th	9.8% 9th	87.1 19th
4-Seam Fastball	28.4%	95.9	21.0% 12th	26.6% 9th	.272 2nd	.351 4th	.344 9th	.586 18th	.235 24th	47.4% 6th	8.9% 24th	90.2 18th
Sinker	23.2%	95.2	12.4% 10th	22.7% 1st	.289 10th	.339 10th	.354 16th	.495 20th	.156 24th	41.6% 22nd	5.4% 23rd	89.2 12th
Changeup	14.3%	89.5	30.2% 9th	30.1% 1st	.229 9th	.302 24th	.275 17th	.425 29th	.123 28th	31.0% 23rd	3.4% 30th	84.4 28th
Curveball	3.1%	80.2	27.8% 10th	24.6% 1st	.246 2nd	.328 11th	.275 18th	.498 16th	.170 22nd	32.5% 23rd	7.8% 13th	85.4 25th
Sweeper	2.2%	84.5	27.5% 3rd	27.0% 2nd	.207 15th	.313 8th	.277 8th	.558 4th	.245 4th	30.7% 13th	9.8% 5th	86.3 7th
Whole mix, by usage			20.9% 8th	27.2% 6th	.283 1st	.334 6th	.335 13th	.533 19th	.199 23rd	40.2% 12th	7.5% 22nd	88.0 21st

2026 season totals. Usage and Velo are Drew Rasmussen's; every other column is MIL's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is MIL's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Jacob Misiorowski's mix vs. TBR bats

Jacob Misiorowski's pitches			TBR hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	63.6%	100.6	19.0% 2nd	29.2% 23rd	.244 17th	.300 30th	.315 29th	.501 29th	.201 29th	39.4% 29th	7.1% 29th	88.6 30th
Cutter	14.0%	95.8	16.0% 1st	27.9% 9th	.310 3rd	.313 23rd	.330 24th	.455 29th	.142 30th	32.7% 26th	5.9% 27th	85.7 28th
Slider	10.9%	91.8	27.5% 2nd	34.1% 18th	.224 14th	.299 27th	.291 15th	.483 28th	.184 26th	31.2% 29th	7.1% 26th	84.7 30th
Curveball	10.5%	88.0	23.2% 1st	27.1% 7th	.237 4th	.340 5th	.283 10th	.478 24th	.138 27th	33.6% 20th	4.1% 29th	84.4 29th
Changeup	0.9%	92.5	26.9% 2nd	35.5% 15th	.258 1st	.328 5th	.293 3rd	.462 22nd	.134 25th	28.6% 27th	4.1% 27th	84.8 24th
Sinker	0.1%	100.6	9.0% 1st	27.5% 24th	.290 8th	.301 30th	.312 30th	.419 30th	.118 30th	37.8% 30th	4.4% 30th	86.7 30th
Whole mix, by usage			20.0% 1st	29.4% 17th	.250 12th	.306 30th	.311 28th	.490 29th	.184 29th	36.9% 29th	6.6% 29th	87.3 30th

2026 season totals. Usage and Velo are Jacob Misiorowski's; every other column is TBR's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is TBR's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Drew Rasmussen Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
3/26	STL [ 9 ]	TBR [ 7 ]	-129	8	5	73	2	0	4	1	1	1	Matthew Liberatore (L)
9/25	BAL [ 6 ]	TBR [ 5 ]	-118	8.5	2.33	57	3	2	2	0	0	0	Cade Povich (L)
9/19	TBR [ 7 ]	BOS [ 11 ]	+120	-	3	76	2	1	4	1	2	2	Garrett Crochet (L)
9/13	CHC [ 4 ]	TBR [ 5 ]	-100	8.5	5	80	5	3	4	1	3	3	Colin Rea (R)
9/7	TBR [ 1 ]	CLE [ 2 ]	-142	8	5	82	2	3	3	0	0	0	Parker Messick (L)
Averages:					4.07	73.6	2.8	1.8	3.4	0.6	1.2	1.2

Jacob Misiorowski Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
3/26	MIL [ 14 ]	CHW [ 2 ]	-185	8	5	94	11	3	2	1	1	1	Shane Smith (R)
9/19	STL [ 7 ]	MIL [ 1 ]	-166	-	3.67	77	3	3	5	0	2	2	Sonny Gray (R)
9/13	MIL [ 9 ]	STL [ 8 ]	-174	7.5	5	75	4	1	7	2	4	4	Sonny Gray (R)
9/7	PIT [ 2 ]	MIL [ 10 ]	-158	8	7	108	8	2	3	0	1	1	Bubba Chandler (R)
9/1	MIL [ 8 ]	PHI [ 10 ]	-162	8.5	4.33	73	4	1	6	1	3	3	Taijuan Walker (R)
Averages:					5	85.4	6	2	4.6	0.8	2.2	2.2

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

TBR Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	3/29	3/30	3/31	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Garrett Cleavinger ⚠	1.0 (23)	1.0 (16)	·	2	2.0	39	3	4	1	0
Yoendrys Gomez	·	·	2.0 (30)	1	2.0	30	2	2	1	1
Kevin Kelly ⚠	1.0 (10)	0.1 (5)	·	2	1.1	15	1	0	1	0
Cole Sulser	·	·	1.1 (31)	1	1.1	31	0	0	4	2
Bryan Baker	1.0 (10)	·	·	1	1.0	10	0	0	0	0
Griffin Jax	·	1.0 (15)	·	1	1.0	15	1	0	0	0
Mason Englert	1.0 (24)	·	·	1	1.0	24	1	0	3	3
Ian Seymour	·	0.2 (8)	·	1	0.2	8	1	0	0	0
Team Totals (8 arms used):				10	10.1	172	9	6	10	6

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

MIL Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	3/29	3/30	3/31	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Grant Anderson	2.0 (31)	·	1.0 (19)	2	3.0	50	4	1	2	0
Angel Zerpa ⚠	·	1.0 (10)	1.0 (14)	2	2.0	24	2	1	0	0
Jared Koenig	1.0 (13)	·	1.0 (16)	2	2.0	29	4	0	1	0
Trevor Megill ⚠	1.0 (15)	1.0 (20)	·	2	2.0	35	3	1	2	1
Aaron Ashby	·	2.0 (24)	·	1	2.0	24	3	0	2	1
Jake Woodford	2.0 (22)	·	·	1	2.0	22	1	0	1	0
Abner Uribe	·	·	1.0 (22)	1	1.0	22	0	1	1	0
Team Totals (7 arms used):				11	14.0	206	17	4	9	2

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

Notable Trends

First week of the season: these records include last season.

The Brewers are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Brewers are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Rays are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over

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Brewers (Home)

The Brewers are 59.3% (105-72) on the moneyline

The Brewers are 69.6% (48-21) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Brewers are 51.4% (89-84-4) to the under

The Brewers are 54.4% (37-31-1) to the over as a home fav

The Brewers are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Brewers are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Brewers are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Brewers are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Rays (Away)

The Rays are 47% (79-89) on the moneyline

The Rays are 40% (24-36) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Rays are 51.9% (82-76-10) to the under

The Rays are 51.8% (29-27-4) to the under as an away dog

The Rays are 33.3% (2-4) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Rays are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Rays are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Rays are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
03/31/26 2026	Brewers Brandon Woodruff (R)	6	vs.	Rays Shane McClanahan (L)	2	-122	7.5	-4	O 8 +0.5
03/30/26 2026	Brewers Kyle Harrison (L)	2	vs.	Rays Nick Martinez (R)	3	-	8.0	+1	U 5 -3.0
05/11/25 2025	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	4	@	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	2	+120	9.0	-2	U 6 -3.0
05/10/25 2025	Brewers Tobias Myers (R)	2	@	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	3	+110	9.5	+1	U 5 -4.5
05/09/25 2025	Brewers Jose Quintana (L)	3	@	Rays Zack Littell (R)	4	-116	9.5	+1	U 7 -2.5

Brewers as Home (2 games)		4.0	-	-	2.5	-122	7.8	-1.5	U 6.5 -1.3

All Games Avg (5 games)		3.4	-	-	2.8	-102	8.7	-0.6	U 6.2 -2.5

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 2 – 8 Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Tampa Bay Rays", home_team: "Milwaukee Brewers", game_date: "2026-04-01" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report TBNo report MILNo report

Rays

Brewers

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Schedules

Rays Schedule Follow global filters

Brewers Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Brewers (Home)

Rays (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 2 – 8
Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers