WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 94 – 86
Indiana Fever @ Dallas Wings

Fever: 7-8 (46.7%) | Market Rating: +2.05

Wings: 4-12 (25.0%) | Market Rating: -2.81 | Home Court: +0.5 pts

Line: +1.5

Total: 166.5

Open: +7

Open: 173.5

Team totals: Fever 83.5 · Wings 82.5

Odds Full WNBA odds board

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report INDNo report DALNo report

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller System(s)

Fade team when game before last was an overtime game

Wings

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Back a dog off a win as a dog with more rest

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Fever

55.63% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/03/25 2025	Fever	-	vs.	Aces	-	+5.0	163.5	-	-
07/01/25 2025	Fever	-	@	Lynx	-	+11.5	158.5	-	-
06/27/25 2025	Fever	-	@	Wings	-	-1.5	166.5	-	-
06/26/25	Fever	75	vs.	Sparks	85	-5.5	168.0	+10	U 160 -8.0
2025	ORtg: 96.8 DRtg: 109.7 Pace: 77.5			ORtg: 109.7 DRtg: 96.8 Pace: 77.5
06/24/25	Fever	94	@	Storm	86	+3.0	167.0	-8	O 180 +13.0
2025	ORtg: 122.2 DRtg: 111.8 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 111.8 DRtg: 122.2 Pace: 76.9
06/22/25	Fever	81	@	Aces	89	-1.0	171.5	+8	U 170 -1.5
2025	ORtg: 100.8 DRtg: 110.7 Pace: 80.4			ORtg: 110.7 DRtg: 100.8 Pace: 80.4
06/19/25	Fever	77	@	Valkyries	88	-10.5	164.0	+11	O 165 +1.0
2025	ORtg: 97.0 DRtg: 110.9 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 110.9 DRtg: 97.0 Pace: 79.4
06/17/25	Fever	88	vs.	Sun	71	-18.0	166.0	-17	U 159 -7.0
2025	ORtg: 120.1 DRtg: 96.9 Pace: 73.3			ORtg: 96.9 DRtg: 120.1 Pace: 73.3
06/14/25	Fever	102	vs.	Liberty	88	+3.5	170.0	-14	O 190 +20.0
2025	ORtg: 123.4 DRtg: 106.5 Pace: 82.6			ORtg: 106.5 DRtg: 123.4 Pace: 82.6
06/10/25	Fever	58	@	Dream	77	+5.0	161.0	+19	U 135 -26.0
2025	ORtg: 80.9 DRtg: 107.4 Pace: 71.7			ORtg: 107.4 DRtg: 80.9 Pace: 71.7
06/07/25	Fever	79	@	Sky	52	-3.0	166.0	-27	U 131 -35.0
2025	ORtg: 114.0 DRtg: 75.0 Pace: 69.3			ORtg: 75.0 DRtg: 114.0 Pace: 69.3
06/03/25	Fever	85	vs.	Mystics	76	-5.0	161.5	-9	U 161 -0.5
2025	ORtg: 115.8 DRtg: 103.6 Pace: 73.4			ORtg: 103.6 DRtg: 115.8 Pace: 73.4
05/30/25	Fever	83	vs.	Sun	85	-12.5	158.0	+2	O 168 +10.0
2025	ORtg: 111.0 DRtg: 113.7 Pace: 74.8			ORtg: 113.7 DRtg: 111.0 Pace: 74.8

Away Games Avg (5 games)		77.8	-	-	78.4	-1.3	165.9	+0.6 -1.9	U 156.2 -9.7
	ORtg: 103.0 DRtg: 103.2 Pace: 75.5			ORtg: 103.2 DRtg: 103.0 Pace: 75.5

All Games Avg (10 games)		82.2	-	-	79.7	-4.4	165.3	-2.5 -1.9	U 161.9 -3.4
	ORtg: 108.2 DRtg: 104.6 Pace: 75.9			ORtg: 104.6 DRtg: 108.2 Pace: 75.9

Wings Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/03/25 2025	Wings	-	vs.	Mercury	-	+11.5	165.0	-	-
06/28/25 2025	Wings	-	vs.	Mystics	-	+6.0	160.5	-	-
06/27/25 2025	Wings	-	vs.	Fever	-	+1.5	166.5	-	-
06/24/25	Wings	68	vs.	Dream	55	+8.5	169.5	-13	U 123 -46.5
2025	ORtg: 100.2 DRtg: 81.1 Pace: 67.8			ORtg: 81.1 DRtg: 100.2 Pace: 67.8
06/22/25	Wings	88	@	Mystics	91 OT	+6.0	167.0	+3	O 179 +12.0
2025	ORtg: 103.0 DRtg: 106.6 Pace: 77.3			ORtg: 106.6 DRtg: 103.0 Pace: 77.3
06/20/25	Wings	86	@	Sun	83	-4.5	164.5	-3	O 169 +4.5
2025	ORtg: 113.6 DRtg: 109.7 Pace: 75.7			ORtg: 109.7 DRtg: 113.6 Pace: 75.7
06/17/25	Wings	80	vs.	Valkyries	71	-3.5	164.5	-9	U 151 -13.5
2025	ORtg: 104.3 DRtg: 92.6 Pace: 76.7			ORtg: 92.6 DRtg: 104.3 Pace: 76.7
06/13/25	Wings	84	@	Aces	88	+5.5	170.0	+4	O 172 +2.0
2025	ORtg: 105.8 DRtg: 110.8 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 110.8 DRtg: 105.8 Pace: 79.4
06/11/25	Wings	80	@	Mercury	93	+7.0	167.0	+13	O 173 +6.0
2025	ORtg: 104.0 DRtg: 120.9 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 120.9 DRtg: 104.0 Pace: 76.9
06/08/25	Wings	65	vs.	Lynx	81	+13.0	166.5	+16	U 146 -20.5
2025	ORtg: 90.6 DRtg: 112.9 Pace: 71.8			ORtg: 112.9 DRtg: 90.6 Pace: 71.8
06/06/25	Wings	79	vs.	Sparks	93	+2.5	173.5	+14	U 172 -1.5
2025	ORtg: 102.1 DRtg: 120.2 Pace: 77.4			ORtg: 120.2 DRtg: 102.1 Pace: 77.4
06/03/25	Wings	77	@	Storm	83	+10.5	166.0	+6	U 160 -6.0
2025	ORtg: 93.2 DRtg: 100.4 Pace: 82.7			ORtg: 100.4 DRtg: 93.2 Pace: 82.7
05/31/25	Wings	83	vs.	Sky	94	-2.5	171.5	+11	O 177 +5.5
2025	ORtg: 102.4 DRtg: 116.0 Pace: 81.0			ORtg: 116.0 DRtg: 102.4 Pace: 81.0

Home Games Avg (5 games)		75.0	-	-	78.8	+3.6	169.1	+3.8 -0.2	U 153.8 -15.3
	ORtg: 99.9 DRtg: 104.5 Pace: 74.9			ORtg: 104.5 DRtg: 99.9 Pace: 74.9

All Games Avg (10 games)		79.0	-	-	83.2	+4.3	168.0	+4.2 +0.1	U 162.2 -5.8
	ORtg: 101.9 DRtg: 107.1 Pace: 76.7			ORtg: 107.1 DRtg: 101.9 Pace: 76.7

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Wings are 25% (2-6) against the spread at home

The Wings are 16.7% (1-5) against the spread as a home dog

The Wings are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Wings are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as a home dog

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Wings (Home)

The Wings are 41.2% (7-10) against the spread

The Wings are 25% (2-6) against the spread at home

The Wings are 41.7% (5-7) against the spread as a dog

The Wings are 16.7% (1-5) against the spread as a home dog

The Wings are 52.9% (9-8) to the over

The Wings are 62.5% (5-3) to the under at home

The Wings are 58.3% (7-5) to the under as a dog

The Wings are 66.7% (4-2) to the under as a home dog

The Wings are 41.7% (5-7) (L30 days) against the spread

The Wings are 33.3% (2-4) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Wings are 50% (4-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Wings are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Wings are 58.3% (7-5) (L30 days) to the over

The Wings are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Wings are 50% (4-4) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Wings are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as a home dog

Fever (Away)

The Fever are 50% (8-8) against the spread

The Fever are 50% (4-4) against the spread away

The Fever are 41.7% (5-7) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 50% (3-3) against the spread as an away fav

The Fever are 56.3% (9-7) to the under

The Fever are 62.5% (5-3) to the under away

The Fever are 66.7% (8-4) to the under as a fav

The Fever are 66.7% (4-2) to the under as an away fav

The Fever are 41.7% (5-7) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fever are 42.9% (3-4) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Fever are 33.3% (3-6) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Fever are 58.3% (7-5) (L30 days) to the under

The Fever are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the under away

The Fever are 66.7% (6-3) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Fever are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/15/24	Wings	109	@	Fever	110	+9.0	186.0	+1	O 219 +33.0
2024	ORtg: 136.5 DRtg: 137.7 Pace: 79.9			ORtg: 137.7 DRtg: 136.5 Pace: 79.9
09/01/24	Wings	93	vs.	Fever	100	+3.0	183.5	+7	O 193 +9.5
2024	ORtg: 106.2 DRtg: 114.2 Pace: 87.6			ORtg: 114.2 DRtg: 106.2 Pace: 87.6
07/17/24	Wings	101	vs.	Fever	93	+4.5	178.0	-8	O 194 +16.0
2024	ORtg: 118.4 DRtg: 109.0 Pace: 85.3			ORtg: 109.0 DRtg: 118.4 Pace: 85.3

Wings as Home (2 games)		97.0	-	-	96.5	+3.8	180.8	-0.5 +4.3	O 193.5 +12.8
	ORtg: 112.3 DRtg: 111.6 Pace: 86.4			ORtg: 111.6 DRtg: 112.3 Pace: 86.4

All Games Avg (3 games)		101.0	-	-	101.0	+5.5	182.5	0.0 +5.5	O 202.0 +19.5
	ORtg: 120.4 DRtg: 120.3 Pace: 84.2			ORtg: 120.3 DRtg: 120.4 Pace: 84.2

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Fever (2x)
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Cover Summary	Fever
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Fever \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 94 – 86 Indiana Fever @ Dallas Wings window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Indiana Fever", home_team: "Dallas Wings", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report INDNo report DALNo report

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Wings

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Wings Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Wings (Home)

Fever (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 94 – 86
Indiana Fever @ Dallas Wings