MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 4 – 5
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Brewers: 8-6 (57.1%) | Chad Patrick (R): 2-0 (100.0%)

Diamondbacks: 7-7 (50.0%) | Corbin Burnes (R): 1-1 (50.0%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Brewers

+147

+1.5 (-140)

o3.5 (-132)

9.0

Diamondbacks

-174

-1.5 (+119)

o4.5 (-135)

Open

Brewers

+151

+1.5 (-138)

o3.5 (-132)

8.5

Diamondbacks

-178

-1.5 (+115)

o4.5 (-135)

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Games
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Injury Report MILNo report ARINo report

Notes — no active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Brewers

C. Patrick	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Diamondbacks

C. Burnes	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Brewers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/14/25 2025	Brewers Tyler Alexander (L)	-	vs.	Tigers Tarik Skubal (L)	-	+140	7.0
04/13/25 2025	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	-	@	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	-	-100	8.0
04/12/25 2025	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	-	@	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	-	+150	9.5
04/11/25 2025	Brewers Jose Quintana (L)	7	@	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	0	+128	9.0
04/10/25 2025	Brewers Quinn Priester (R)	2	@	Rockies Ryan Feltner (R)	7	-130	10.5
04/09/25 2025	Brewers Tyler Alexander (L)	17	@	Rockies Antonio Senzatela (R)	2	-142	10.5
04/08/25 2025	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	7	@	Rockies Kyle Freeland (L)	1	-158	9.5
04/06/25 2025	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	8	vs.	Reds Carson Spiers (R)	2	-142	8.5
04/05/25 2025	Brewers Elvin Rodriguez (R)	7	vs.	Reds Brady Singer (R)	11	-122	8.0
04/04/25 2025	Brewers Tyler Alexander (L)	3	vs.	Reds Nick Martinez (R)	2	-124	8.5
04/03/25 2025	Brewers Nestor Cortes (L)	1	vs.	Reds Nick Lodolo (L)	0	-118	8.0
04/02/25 2025	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	3	vs.	Royals Cole Ragans (L)	2 F/11	-118	7.5
04/01/25 2025	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	5	vs.	Royals Michael Lorenzen (R)	0	-124	8.5

Away Games Avg (4 games)		8.3	-	-	2.5	-123	9.9

All Games Avg (10 games)		6.0	-	-	2.7	-124	8.9

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/15/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	-	@	Marlins Connor Gillispie (R)	-	-166	8.5
04/13/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	-	vs.	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	-	-118	8.0
04/12/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	-	vs.	Brewers Chad Patrick (R)	-	-178	9.5
04/11/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	0	vs.	Brewers Jose Quintana (L)	7	-152	9.0
04/09/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	9	vs.	Orioles Dean Kremer (R)	0	-118	9.0
04/08/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	4	vs.	Orioles Charlie Morton (R)	3	-104	9.5
04/07/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	1	vs.	Orioles Zach Eflin (R)	5	-124	8.5
04/06/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	4	@	Nationals Trevor Williams (R)	5	-180	7.5
04/05/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	3	@	Nationals Mitchell Parker (L)	4	-130	9.5
04/04/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	6	@	Nationals Jake Irvin (R)	4	-138	8.5
04/03/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	7	@	Yankees Carlos Carrasco (R)	9	+108	9.5
04/02/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	4	@	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	3	+120	7.5
04/01/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	7	@	Yankees Will Warren (R)	5	-108	8.5

Home Games Avg (4 games)		3.5	-	-	3.8	-123	9.0

All Games Avg (10 games)		4.5	-	-	4.5	-120	8.7

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Chad Patrick's mix vs. ARI bats

Chad Patrick's pitches			ARI hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Cutter	41.6%	88.0	16.9% 1st	25.5% 8th	.286 9th	.340 7th	.384 2nd	.618 5th	.278 4th	41.1% 10th	10.7% 6th	88.2 18th
Sinker	22.8%	94.2	11.4% 1st	21.2% 2nd	.273 20th	.323 17th	.350 11th	.501 17th	.178 15th	48.9% 3rd	6.9% 15th	90.5 2nd
4-Seam Fastball	21.7%	94.3	16.8% 1st	21.1% 2nd	.265 3rd	.324 26th	.362 4th	.599 22nd	.275 18th	45.1% 25th	11.6% 15th	90.8 20th
Changeup	6.3%	88.7	28.4% 8th	33.1% 13th	.240 10th	.305 21st	.290 15th	.494 21st	.189 15th	38.8% 3rd	7.0% 17th	87.6 5th
Slider	5.0%	84.2	32.2% 11th	31.5% 12th	.207 29th	.321 18th	.295 13th	.550 17th	.229 16th	41.2% 8th	8.4% 18th	89.0 6th
Slurve	2.6%	85.7	19.4% 1st	23.6% 6th	.313 5th	.320 15th	.305 11th	.372 26th	.052 29th	33.0% 14th	0.0% 23rd	86.6 17th
Whole mix, by usage			17.2% 1st	24.3% 2nd	.272 7th	.329 14th	.359 2nd	.570 13th	.241 12th	43.4% 11th	9.4% 14th	89.2 15th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Chad Patrick's; every other column is ARI's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is ARI's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Corbin Burnes's mix vs. MIL bats

Corbin Burnes's pitches			MIL hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Cutter	55.0%	94.1	20.5% 10th	27.9% 23rd	.281 13th	.307 27th	.347 20th	.536 24th	.229 17th	45.6% 4th	9.6% 15th	89.8 5th
Curveball	19.2%	80.0	25.9% 3rd	22.6% 1st	.231 14th	.337 11th	.259 24th	.513 22nd	.176 26th	39.5% 12th	5.9% 26th	88.1 11th
Sinker	9.6%	95.6	12.6% 8th	25.3% 16th	.270 23rd	.312 25th	.321 29th	.456 28th	.144 29th	45.3% 16th	5.6% 24th	89.0 20th
Slider	8.9%	87.8	31.1% 7th	31.6% 14th	.237 11th	.317 19th	.294 14th	.513 26th	.196 26th	37.7% 18th	6.7% 29th	86.9 26th
Changeup	7.2%	88.3	27.3% 6th	30.2% 2nd	.235 14th	.303 23rd	.296 8th	.494 21st	.191 12th	31.0% 27th	8.7% 6th	84.4 30th
Whole mix, by usage			22.2% 7th	27.1% 14th	.263 11th	.314 28th	.319 23rd	.519 26th	.205 23rd	42.6% 5th	8.2% 20th	88.7 8th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Corbin Burnes's; every other column is MIL's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is MIL's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Chad Patrick Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/6	MIL [ 8 ]	CIN [ 2 ]	-142	8.5	5.33	80	4	3	2	1	1	1	Carson Spiers (R)
4/1	MIL [ 5 ]	KCR [ 0 ]	-124	8.5	4.67	86	5	3	3	0	0	0	Michael Lorenzen (R)
Averages:					5	83	4.5	3	2.5	0.5	0.5	0.5

Corbin Burnes Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/6	WSN [ 5 ]	ARI [ 4 ]	-180	7.5	5	89	3	4	7	0	4	4	Trevor Williams (R)
4/1	NYY [ 5 ]	ARI [ 7 ]	-108	8.5	4.33	98	8	3	4	2	2	4	Will Warren (R)
10/1	BAL [ 0 ]	KCR [ 1 ]	-154	6.5	8	84	3	1	5	0	1	1	Cole Ragans (L)
9/26	NYY [ 10 ]	BAL [ 1 ]	+124	8	5	69	9	1	2	1	1	1	Gerrit Cole (R)
9/20	BAL [ 7 ]	DET [ 1 ]	-196	7.5	7	91	8	3	3	0	0	0	Tyler Holton (L)
Averages:					5.87	86.2	6.2	2.4	4.2	0.6	1.6	2

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

MIL Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/9	4/10	4/11	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Jared Koenig	1.0 (16)	·	1.0 (15)	2	2.0	31	2	1	0	0
Grant Anderson	2.0 (31)	·	·	1	2.0	31	3	0	2	0
Elvis Peguero	1.1 (23)	·	·	1	1.1	23	1	2	0	0
Abner Uribe	·	1.0 (19)	·	1	1.0	19	0	1	1	1
Bryan Hudson	·	1.0 (19)	·	1	1.0	19	1	0	1	0
Nick Mears	1.0 (13)	·	·	1	1.0	13	1	0	0	0
Trevor Megill	·	·	1.0 (20)	1	1.0	20	2	1	0	0
Joel Payamps	·	0.2 (26)	·	1	0.2	26	1	2	3	5
Elvin Rodriguez	·	0.1 (15)	·	1	0.1	15	1	0	1	0
Team Totals (9 arms used):				10	10.1	197	12	7	8	6

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

ARI Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	4/9	4/10	4/11	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Jalen Beeks	2.0 (23)	·	·	1	2.0	23	0	0	0	0
Joe Mantiply	·	·	1.1 (36)	1	1.1	36	1	1	4	4
Ryan Thompson	·	·	1.1 (16)	1	1.1	16	0	0	0	0
Bryce Jarvis	1.0 (12)	·	·	1	1.0	12	0	0	0	0
Team Totals (4 arms used):				4	5.2	87	1	1	4	4

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

Notable Trends

The Brewers are 20% (1-4) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Brewers are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

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Diamondbacks (Home)

The Diamondbacks are 53.3% (8-7) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 50% (4-4) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 53.8% (7-6-2) to the under

The Diamondbacks are 66.7% (4-2-2) to the under as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 53.3% (8-7) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 50% (4-4) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 53.8% (7-6-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Diamondbacks are 66.7% (4-2-2) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Brewers (Away)

The Brewers are 53.3% (8-7) on the moneyline

The Brewers are 20% (1-4) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Brewers are 60% (9-6) to the under

The Brewers are 60% (3-2) to the under as an away dog

The Brewers are 53.3% (8-7) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Brewers are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Brewers are 60% (9-6) (L30 days) to the under

The Brewers are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
04/11/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	0	vs.	Brewers Jose Quintana (L)	7	-152	9.0	+7	U 7 -2.0
09/22/24 2024	Diamondbacks Jordan Montgomery (L)	9	@	Brewers Frankie Montas (R)	10	+120	8.0	+1	O 19 +11.0
09/21/24 2024	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	5	@	Brewers Aaron Civale (R)	0	-102	8.0	-5	U 5 -3.0
09/20/24 2024	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	7	@	Brewers Colin Rea (R)	4	-134	8.5	-3	O 11 +2.5
09/19/24 2024	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	5	@	Brewers Tobias Myers (R)	1	-124	8.5	-4	U 6 -2.5
09/15/24 2024	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	11	vs.	Brewers DL Hall (L)	10 F/10	-162	8.5	-1	O 21 +12.5
09/14/24 2024	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	8	vs.	Brewers Tobias Myers (R)	15	-158	8.5	+7	O 23 +14.5

Diamondbacks as Home (3 games)		6.3	-	-	10.7	-157	8.7	+4.3	O 17.0 +8.3

All Games Avg (7 games)		6.4	-	-	6.7	-127	8.4	+0.3	O 13.1 +4.7

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 4 – 5 Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Milwaukee Brewers", home_team: "Arizona Diamondbacks", game_date: "2025-04-12" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report MILNo report ARINo report

Brewers

Diamondbacks

Filters

Schedules

Brewers Schedule Follow global filters

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Diamondbacks (Home)

Brewers (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 4 – 5
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks