MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 7 – 9
Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Yankees

Diamondbacks: 4-2 (66.7%) | Merrill Kelly (R): 1-0 (100.0%)

Yankees: 3-2 (60.0%) | Carlos Carrasco (R): 0-0 (0.0%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Diamondbacks

+102

+1.5 (-183)

o4.5 (-111)

10.0

Yankees

-119

-1.5 (+155)

o4.5 (-128)

Open

Diamondbacks

-106

-1.5 (+143)

o4.5 (-111)

9.5

Yankees

-110

+1.5 (-172)

o4.5 (-128)

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Games
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Injury Report ARINo report NYYNo report

Notes — no active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Diamondbacks

M. Kelly	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Yankees

C. Carrasco	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/05/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	-	@	Nationals Mitchell Parker (L)	-	-130	9.5
04/04/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	-	@	Nationals Jake Irvin (R)	-	-138	8.5
04/03/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	-	@	Yankees Carlos Carrasco (R)	-	+108	9.5
04/02/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	4	@	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	3	+120	7.5
04/01/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	7	@	Yankees Will Warren (R)	5	-108	8.5
03/30/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	10	vs.	Cubs Matthew Boyd (L)	6	-112	9.0
03/29/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	3	vs.	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	4	-120	9.0
03/28/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	8	vs.	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	1	-145	9.0
03/27/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	6	vs.	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	10	-126	8.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/29/24 2024	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	11	vs.	Padres Martin Perez (L)	2	-220	8.5
09/28/24 2024	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	0	vs.	Padres Randy Vasquez (R)	5	-220	9.0
09/27/24 2024	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	3	vs.	Padres Yu Darvish (R)	5	-126	9.0
09/25/24 2024	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	8	vs.	Giants Mason Black (R)	2	-270	8.5

Away Games Avg (2 games this season)		5.5	-	-	4.0	+105	8.0

All Games Avg (6 games this season)		6.3	-	-	4.8	-114	8.6

Yankees Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/05/25 2025	Yankees Marcus Stroman (R)	-	@	Pirates Bailey Falter (L)	-	-162	9.5
04/04/25 2025	Yankees Max Fried (L)	-	@	Pirates Mitch Keller (R)	-	-166	7.5
04/03/25 2025	Yankees Carlos Carrasco (R)	-	vs.	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	-	-126	9.5
04/02/25 2025	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	3	vs.	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	4	-142	7.5
04/01/25 2025	Yankees Will Warren (R)	5	vs.	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	7	-108	8.5
03/30/25 2025	Yankees Marcus Stroman (R)	12	vs.	Brewers Aaron Civale (R)	3	-142	8.5
03/29/25 2025	Yankees Max Fried (L)	20	vs.	Brewers Nestor Cortes (L)	9	-165	8.5
03/27/25 2025	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	4	vs.	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	2	-146	7.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
10/30/24 2024	Yankees Gerrit Cole (R)	6	vs.	Dodgers Jack Flaherty (R)	7	-144	8.5
10/29/24 2024	Yankees Luis Gil (R)	11	vs.	Dodgers Ben Casparius (R)	4	-136	8.5
10/28/24 2024	Yankees Clarke Schmidt (R)	2	vs.	Dodgers Walker Buehler (R)	4	-144	8.5
10/26/24 2024	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	2	@	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	4	+118	8.5
10/25/24 2024	Yankees Gerrit Cole (R)	3	@	Dodgers Jack Flaherty (R)	6	+106	8.5

Home Games Avg (5 games this season)		8.8	-	-	5.0	-139	8.1

All Games Avg (5 games this season)		8.8	-	-	5.0	-139	8.1

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Merrill Kelly's mix vs. NYY bats

Merrill Kelly's pitches			NYY hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Changeup	27.1%	88.3	29.2% 9th	30.6% 3rd	.255 2nd	.310 19th	.294 9th	.498 18th	.188 16th	35.0% 14th	6.5% 22nd	87.3 6th
4-Seam Fastball	23.2%	91.9	23.5% 27th	22.4% 8th	.249 16th	.348 5th	.363 3rd	.701 1st	.353 1st	53.8% 2nd	14.2% 2nd	93.2 2nd
Cutter	20.2%	90.6	25.4% 27th	25.1% 6th	.299 5th	.343 5th	.391 1st	.678 1st	.335 1st	43.8% 6th	14.7% 1st	89.5 9th
Sinker	12.9%	92.3	15.0% 23rd	25.8% 21st	.309 3rd	.356 1st	.379 1st	.599 1st	.243 1st	49.2% 2nd	9.7% 1st	90.5 2nd
Curveball	9.7%	81.7	30.3% 12th	30.1% 23rd	.240 7th	.336 12th	.295 10th	.587 7th	.251 8th	48.2% 1st	10.3% 6th	90.9 1st
Slider	7.0%	85.8	36.2% 27th	31.3% 11th	.223 20th	.335 4th	.305 10th	.633 1st	.298 1st	44.9% 1st	11.4% 5th	89.8 2nd
Whole mix, by usage			25.9% 21st	27.0% 7th	.266 3rd	.336 4th	.341 1st	.612 1st	.277 1st	44.9% 2nd	11.1% 1st	90.0 2nd

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Merrill Kelly's; every other column is NYY's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is NYY's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Carlos Carrasco's mix vs. ARI bats

Carlos Carrasco's pitches			ARI hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Slider	24.9%	84.4	32.2% 11th	31.5% 12th	.207 29th	.321 18th	.295 13th	.550 17th	.229 16th	41.2% 8th	8.4% 18th	89.0 6th
Sinker	22.7%	90.3	11.4% 1st	21.2% 2nd	.273 20th	.323 17th	.350 11th	.501 17th	.178 15th	48.9% 3rd	6.9% 15th	90.5 2nd
Changeup	21.3%	84.9	28.4% 8th	33.1% 13th	.240 10th	.305 21st	.290 15th	.494 21st	.189 15th	38.8% 3rd	7.0% 17th	87.6 5th
4-Seam Fastball	20.8%	91.5	16.8% 1st	21.1% 2nd	.265 3rd	.324 26th	.362 4th	.599 22nd	.275 18th	45.1% 25th	11.6% 15th	90.8 20th
Curveball	10.0%	77.8	28.4% 9th	25.9% 4th	.220 20th	.340 8th	.321 2nd	.562 12th	.222 15th	35.3% 25th	6.9% 21st	87.2 20th
Sweeper	0.3%	77.7	30.2% 12th	32.2% 26th	.207 19th	.281 25th	.268 15th	.492 23rd	.211 19th	28.8% 24th	8.1% 16th	85.3 22nd
Whole mix, by usage			23.1% 5th	26.8% 3rd	.242 19th	.320 21st	.323 6th	.538 18th	.218 15th	42.6% 6th	8.3% 19th	89.2 6th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Carlos Carrasco's; every other column is ARI's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is ARI's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Merrill Kelly Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
3/28	ARI [ 8 ]	CHC [ 1 ]	-145	9	5.33	85	1	4	3	0	1	1	Jameson Taillon (R)
9/27	ARI [ 3 ]	SDP [ 5 ]	-126	9	5.67	99	8	1	8	0	5	5	Yu Darvish (R)
9/21	MIL [ 0 ]	ARI [ 5 ]	-102	8	5	72	6	0	2	0	0	0	Aaron Civale (R)
9/16	COL [ 3 ]	ARI [ 2 ]	-174	11	6	83	5	2	2	1	1	1	Antonio Senzatela (R)
9/11	ARI [ 14 ]	TEX [ 4 ]	-164	8.5	4	68	3	2	4	1	3	3	Cody Bradford (L)
Averages:					5.2	81.4	4.6	1.8	3.8	0.4	2	2

Carlos Carrasco Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
8/7	CLE [ 3 ]	ARI [ 5 ]	-108	8	4.33	79	5	2	5	2	4	4	Eduardo Rodriguez (R)
8/2	CLE [ 8 ]	BAL [ 4 ]	-104	9	4.33	79	5	4	1	0	1	1	Dean Kremer (R)
7/27	PHI [ 8 ]	CLE [ 0 ]	+130	9.5	3.67	86	5	1	6	2	6	6	Tyler Phillips (R)
7/22	CLE [ 2 ]	DET [ 8 ]	+114	7	5.33	96	6	0	9	1	6	6	Tarik Skubal (L)
7/12	TBR [ 2 ]	CLE [ 0 ]	+116	7.5	5	82	3	1	6	0	1	2	Taj Bradley (R)
Averages:					4.53	84.4	4.8	1.6	5.4	1	3.6	3.8

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

ARI Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	3/31	4/1	4/2	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
AJ Puk ⚠	·	1.0 (15)	1.0 (14)	2	2.0	29	3	0	2	2
Jalen Beeks	·	1.2 (22)	·	1	1.2	22	1	0	0	0
Joe Mantiply	·	·	1.0 (13)	1	1.0	13	1	0	0	0
Justin Martinez	·	1.0 (14)	·	1	1.0	14	3	0	0	0
Shelby Miller	·	1.0 (8)	·	1	1.0	8	0	0	0	0
Ryan Thompson	·	·	0.1 (9)	1	0.1	9	1	0	2	2
Team Totals (6 arms used):				7	7.0	95	9	0	4	4

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

NYY Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	3/31	4/1	4/2	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Yoendrys Gomez	·	·	3.0 (43)	1	3.0	43	1	3	0	0
Fernando Cruz	·	2.0 (22)	·	1	2.0	22	4	0	0	0
Adam Ottavino	·	0.2 (11)	·	1	0.2	11	1	1	0	0
Brent Headrick	·	0.2 (7)	·	1	0.2	7	1	0	1	0
Mark Leiter	·	0.1 (19)	·	1	0.1	19	1	2	1	3
Tim Hill	·	0.1 (4)	·	1	0.1	4	0	0	2	2
Team Totals (6 arms used):				6	7.0	106	8	6	4	5

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

Notable Trends

The Yankees are 80% (4-1) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Yankees are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

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Yankees (Home)

The Yankees are 66.7% (4-2) on the moneyline

The Yankees are 80% (4-1) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Yankees are 66.7% (4-2) to the over

The Yankees are 60% (3-2) to the over as a home fav

The Yankees are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Yankees are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Yankees are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Yankees are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Diamondbacks (Away)

The Diamondbacks are 57.1% (4-3) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 50% (1-1) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Diamondbacks are 66.7% (4-2-1) to the over

The Diamondbacks are 50% (1-1) to the over as an away dog

The Diamondbacks are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Diamondbacks are 66.7% (4-2-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Diamondbacks are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
04/02/25 2025	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	3	vs.	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	4	-142	7.5	+1	U 7 -0.5
04/01/25 2025	Yankees Will Warren (R)	5	vs.	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	7	-108	8.5	+2	O 12 +3.5
04/03/24 2024	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	6	@	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	5 F/11	-122	8.5	-1	O 11 +2.5
04/02/24 2024	Yankees Nestor Cortes (L)	0	@	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	7	-106	8.5	+7	U 7 -1.5
04/01/24 2024	Yankees Luis Gil (R)	5	@	Diamondbacks Ryne Nelson (R)	2	-120	9.5	-3	U 7 -2.5

Yankees as Home (2 games)		4.0	-	-	5.5	-124	8.0	+1.5	O 9.5 +1.5

All Games Avg (5 games)		3.8	-	-	5.0	-119	8.5	+1.2	O 8.8 +0.3

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 7 – 9 Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Yankees window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Arizona Diamondbacks", home_team: "New York Yankees", game_date: "2025-04-03" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report ARINo report NYYNo report

Diamondbacks

Yankees

Filters

Schedules

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Yankees Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Yankees (Home)

Diamondbacks (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 7 – 9
Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Yankees