Category: Betting

Welcome to “NFL Blitz,” where we give you in-depth analysis on every game, every week! We’re not here to pick sides – we’re here to explore the “why” behind each matchup. Our goal is to arm you with the knowledge to make your own informed choices:

• Why each team could cover the spread – uncover key factors that favor both sides.
• Why the game could go over or under – we dive into the stats, matchups, and situations that point to both outcomes.
  

We give you the “what ifs” so you understand the paths each game could take. No hot takes or hype, just sharp analysis to help you see both sides and make educated decisions. Whether you’re betting, setting up fantasy lineups, or just following the action, this weekly article is the ultimate guide to the NFL week ahead.

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New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans

Why New England will cover:

• New England’s backup QB Jacoby Brissett has been capable of stepping in, and with Hunter Henry and Pop Douglas as his primary targets, he could move the ball against Tennessee’s middle-of-the-road pass defense.
• The Titans’ potential absences (Pollard, Ridley, Sneed, Sweat) could diminish their offense and defensive effectiveness, leveling the playing field.

Why Tennessee will cover:

• The Titans can rely on Tony Pollard, assuming he plays, to exploit New England’s poor run defense and control the game on the ground.
• Mason Rudolph has shown he can connect with Calvin Ridley, and New England’s low-pressure rate may give him ample time to make plays.

Why game will go over:

• If Tennessee’s running game with Pollard gets going, and Ridley finds openings in New England’s secondary, both teams could score consistently.
• With New England forced into a pass-heavy game plan, quick drives and potential turnovers may push the scoring higher.

Why game will go under:

• Both offenses face limitations—Tennessee with possible player absences, and New England with a backup QB and a poor offensive line—which may keep scoring low.
• Tennessee’s run-focused game plan and New England’s pass protection issues could slow down the pace and limit scoring opportunities.

Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Why Cleveland will cover:

• If Jameis Winston can limit his mistakes, Cleveland’s offense could find occasional success, especially with Njoku in a favorable matchup against the Chargers’ weakness against tight ends.
• The Chargers face an early East Coast game, which historically poses challenges, despite Jim Harbaugh’s positive track record.

Why Los Angeles will cover:

• Cleveland’s defense is missing two key players (Ward and Owusu-Koramoah), making it easier for Herbert to capitalize with Dobbins on the ground and his receivers in the passing game.
• The Browns may experience a letdown after their emotional upset over the Ravens, making it difficult to replicate last week’s performance.

Why game will go over:

• Cleveland’s defensive injuries could lead to more scoring opportunities for Herbert, while Winston’s aggressive style may result in quick scoring drives or turnovers.
• With both teams likely to exploit defensive weaknesses, points could accumulate on both sides.

Why game will go under:

• If Winston struggles against the Chargers’ top-tier pass defense, Cleveland’s scoring could be stifled, slowing down the overall pace.
• Cleveland’s run-first approach and the Chargers’ defense against the pass may result in a slower game with fewer scoring chances.

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers

Why New Orleans will cover:

• The Saints’ run game, led by Alvin Kamara, should exploit Carolina’s historically weak defense, even if Carr is not at full strength.
• Carolina’s quarterback situation is a mess, with Dalton potentially limited by a thumb injury and Young showing poor results against stronger defenses.

Why Carolina will cover:

• If Dalton starts and is close to full health, he may manage the offense better than Young, helping the Panthers keep the game within reach.
• New Orleans’ injuries in the secondary, especially if Lattimore or Mathieu are out, could open up passing lanes for Carolina’s offense.

Why game will go over:

• New Orleans could control the game with a balanced attack featuring Kamara and Taysom Hill, generating consistent scoring opportunities against Carolina’s weak defense.
• If Dalton plays, Carolina could manage to move the ball enough to keep the scoring higher than expected.

Why game will go under:

• With both teams’ quarterback situations in flux, there’s a strong chance of conservative play-calling, limiting big plays and overall scoring.
• New Orleans may focus on a run-heavy approach to protect Carr, slowing the game pace and minimizing scoring opportunities.

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

Why Buffalo will cover:

• The Bills have consistently dominated Miami in recent matchups, and with Miami’s diminished pass rush, Josh Allen should have ample time to find open targets.
• The Dolphins’ struggles against the run, combined with James Cook’s strong performance in their previous meeting, should give Buffalo a balanced attack.

Why Miami will cover:

• With Tua Tagovailoa one game further into his return, Miami could make adjustments, especially by using Achane as a receiving option to expose Buffalo’s defense.
• Miami’s offense, when healthy, has shown explosive potential, which could allow them to keep pace with Buffalo’s scoring.

Why game will go over:

• Both offenses have potent playmakers: Buffalo’s trio of Allen, Cook, and Cooper, paired with Miami’s Tagovailoa, Hill, and Achane, suggest a high-scoring affair.
• If Buffalo can move the ball efficiently with Cook and exploit Miami’s pass defense, both sides could put up points consistently.

Why game will go under:

• With Miami’s offensive line struggles and Buffalo’s track record of stifling Tagovailoa, the Dolphins’ scoring may be limited.
• Buffalo’s run-heavy approach with Cook could control the clock, slowing the pace and reducing total scoring opportunities.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons

Why Dallas will cover:

• If Micah Parsons returns, he can apply pressure to Kirk Cousins, who has struggled against top pass rushers, making it difficult for Atlanta’s offense to find rhythm.
• Atlanta’s weak pass rush should give Dak Prescott time in the pocket to connect with CeeDee Lamb and other targets, exploiting a vulnerable Falcons secondary, especially in the slot.

Why Atlanta will cover:

• Bijan Robinson has a strong matchup against a leaky Dallas run defense, potentially allowing the Falcons to control the game on the ground.
• Dallas’s shaky offensive line could struggle against even a moderate pass rush from Atlanta, limiting Prescott’s effectiveness and keeping the game close.

Why game will go over:

• Dallas’s passing attack has a favorable matchup against Atlanta’s secondary, while Robinson’s big-play ability on the ground for the Falcons could add to the scoring.
• If both offenses capitalize on defensive weaknesses, scoring could come from both sides, pushing the total over.

Why game will go under:

• With Parsons back, Dallas’s defense could stall Atlanta’s offensive production, and if Atlanta focuses on a run-heavy strategy, it may limit the number of possessions and scoring opportunities.
• Both teams may struggle to sustain drives due to offensive line issues and defensive matchups, resulting in a lower-scoring affair.

Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens

Why Denver will cover:

• The Ravens’ weak secondary gives Courtland Sutton and the Broncos’ passing game a strong matchup advantage, while Denver’s solid offensive line should keep Bo Nix protected.
• With Baltimore potentially looking ahead to a Thursday night divisional game against Cincinnati, Denver’s motivation and focus on this game may be stronger.

Why Baltimore will cover:

• If Lamar Jackson plays, Baltimore’s versatile offense could create big-play opportunities even against a tough Denver defense, especially if Jackson can connect with secondary targets outside of Surtain’s coverage.
• Baltimore’s effective run defense could limit Javonte Williams, forcing Denver into a one-dimensional passing attack, which is less reliable.

Why game will go over:

• Denver’s strong pass attack against Baltimore’s struggling secondary and Jackson’s big-play potential, if he plays, could drive up the score on both sides.
• Baltimore’s offensive scheme allows for quick scoring drives, which could lead to a higher-scoring game if both offenses click.

Why game will go under:

• Denver’s stout rush defense could slow Baltimore’s ground game, limiting Jackson’s ability to move the chains and resulting in fewer scoring opportunities.
• Both teams may lean on the pass strategically, leading to fewer sustained drives and a slower tempo if Baltimore’s defense can force Denver into third-and-long situations.

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Cincinatti Bengals vs Las Vegas Raiders

Why Cincinnati will cover:

• If Tee Higgins plays, the Bengals’ passing attack could exploit the Raiders’ secondary, especially with Ja’Marr Chase drawing coverage away from other targets.
• Burrow has shown resilience on third-down conversions, and with a home-field advantage, Cincinnati could create separation if the Raiders struggle to contain Chase and the Bengals’ aerial threat.

Why Las Vegas will cover:

• The Bengals’ weak offensive line and lack of a strong run game leave them vulnerable, especially with Maxx Crosby pressuring Burrow and impacting his timing.
• Cincinnati’s defense struggles against both the pass and the run, providing favorable matchups for Gardner Minshew, Jakobi Meyers, and Brock Bowers.

Why game will go over:

• Both teams face defenses that struggle with pressure and coverage, so big plays and scoring drives could add up quickly.
• Minshew’s efficiency with returning targets like Meyers and Bowers, combined with Burrow’s connection with Chase, could drive the score higher than anticipated.

Why game will go under:

• If the Bengals’ offensive line fails to protect Burrow, Cincinnati’s offense may stall, limiting their scoring potential.
• Both teams may struggle with offensive consistency due to weak run blocking, slowing down the pace and reducing total points.

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants

Why Washington will cover:

• With Jayden Daniels’ ability to scramble and Brian Robinson Jr.’s success in the run game, Washington’s offense should be able to control the tempo and exploit the Giants’ weak run defense.
• The Giants’ offensive line is severely compromised without Andrew Thomas, likely resulting in pressure on Daniel Jones and limiting his ability to connect with Malik Nabers.

Why New York will cover:

• The Redskins may struggle to maintain intensity after last week’s dramatic Hail Mary win, opening the door for a Giants team eager to rebound.
• Washington’s secondary remains vulnerable to big plays, which Jones could capitalize on if he finds time in the pocket.

Why game will go over:

• Washington’s run-heavy approach could set up play-action shots for Daniels, while Jones and Nabers might create explosive plays if the Giants’ offense finds its rhythm.
• Both defenses have clear vulnerabilities: Washington struggles against deep passes, and the Giants have issues against the run, which could lead to consistent scoring.

Why game will go under:

• Washington’s focus on the run game and New York’s potential struggles without their top running back and a weak offensive line may slow the pace.
• Both teams could stall on drives due to shaky offensive execution or defensive pressure, limiting scoring opportunities.

Chicago Bears vs. Arizona Cardinals

Why Chicago will cover:

• Caleb Williams will have a much cleaner pocket against Arizona’s weak pass rush, allowing him to connect with his talented receivers against a vulnerable secondary.
• D’Andre Swift’s recent resurgence and Arizona’s poor run defense should allow the Bears to control the game on the ground, creating scoring opportunities and extending drives.

Why Arizona will cover:

• Kyler Murray’s mobility and ability to make off-schedule throws can help Arizona’s offense if Chicago’s pass rush over-pursues.
• Chicago’s struggles against the run give James Conner a favorable matchup, allowing Arizona to control the tempo and keep the game within reach.

Why game will go over:

• Both teams have playmakers who can exploit weaknesses in the opposing defenses: Williams and Swift for Chicago, and Murray and Conner for Arizona.
• Arizona’s defense struggles in both pressure and run defense, while Chicago’s defensive weakness in the run game could lead to quick drives and scoring on both ends.

Why game will go under:

• If Chicago can dominate the ground game with Swift, they may look to control the clock and limit Arizona’s offensive possessions, leading to a lower total.
• Both teams may lean on their run games due to the opposing defenses’ weaknesses, potentially resulting in longer, time-consuming drives.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Why Philadelphia will cover:

• Philadelphia’s improving defense, especially the pass rush, can exploit Jacksonville’s offensive line struggles, putting constant pressure on Trevor Lawrence.
• Saquon Barkley has a favorable matchup as a receiving threat out of the backfield, allowing Philadelphia to sustain drives and control the game tempo.

Why Jacksonville will cover:

• If Brian Thomas Jr. plays, Lawrence could have a reliable target, preventing the Eagles from focusing solely on A.J. Brown and Barkley.
• Philadelphia may face a letdown spot with a divisional game against the Cowboys next week, potentially reducing their intensity.

Why game will go over:

• Both offenses have the potential for big plays, with Philadelphia leveraging Barkley and Brown, while Jacksonville could surprise with quick passes if Thomas is active.
• The Eagles’ scoring consistency since their bye week suggests they could push the total higher, especially if Jacksonville’s defense struggles to contain them.

Why game will go under:

• Jacksonville’s offensive injuries and Philadelphia’s pass rush may keep the Jaguars’ scoring low, limiting the total.
• Philadelphia may look to control the game through the run with Barkley, managing the clock and keeping the scoring pace steady.

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

Why Los Angeles will cover:

• With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both back, Stafford has his full arsenal against a Seattle secondary that’s been dealing with injuries, giving the Rams a clear edge in the passing game.
• Seattle’s run defense has been weak, creating a favorable matchup for Kyren Williams to exploit and keep the Rams’ offense balanced.

Why Seattle will cover:

• Geno Smith’s offense could find rhythm with a potentially returning D.K. Metcalf, while Kenneth Walker is in a good spot to challenge a Rams run defense that is middle of the pack.
• Sharp bettors have backed Seattle, likely banking on the Seahawks bouncing back from a disappointing loss and leveraging their top-10 pass rush to disrupt Stafford’s rhythm.

Why game will go over:

• Both offenses have explosive playmakers with a favorable matchup against questionable defensive secondaries, opening the door for quick scoring drives.
• The Rams’ reliance on both a strong passing and rushing attack, combined with Seattle’s dynamic play potential with Walker and possibly Metcalf, could lead to a higher-scoring game.

Why game will go under:

• If the Rams’ pass rush disrupts Smith and limits Seattle’s ability to sustain drives, the Seahawks’ scoring could stall.
• Both teams may lean on the run game to control the clock and exploit each other’s weaker rush defenses, potentially slowing down the game.

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

Why Green Bay will cover:

• If Malik Willis starts, he’s shown he can manage the game well and take advantage of Detroit’s weakened pass rush and secondary, which struggled last week without Aidan Hutchinson.
• Jared Goff’s history of playing worse in outdoor conditions could limit Detroit’s offensive efficiency, particularly if rainy weather affects the game.

Why Detroit will cover:

• Detroit’s run game, led by Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, matches up well against a Green Bay defense that ranks 26th against the run recently, giving the Lions control over the tempo.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are reliable passing targets who could exploit Green Bay’s defensive focus on outside receivers, allowing Goff to sustain drives.

Why game will go over:

• Both teams could exploit weaknesses in each other’s defense: Green Bay’s issues stopping the run and Detroit’s limited pass rush without Hutchinson.
• Big plays from Detroit’s running backs and Green Bay’s receivers against weaker defensive units could push the total higher.

Why game will go under:

• If Malik Willis starts, Green Bay may adopt a conservative, run-heavy approach, slowing down the game’s pace and limiting scoring.
• Rainy conditions and Jared Goff’s challenges in outdoor games could contribute to a slower, lower-scoring matchup.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts

Why Indianapolis will cover:

• The absence of Christian Darrisaw leaves Sam Darnold vulnerable to a Colts pass rush led by DeForest Buckner, making it challenging for Minnesota’s offense to function smoothly.
• Joe Flacco’s starting role gives Indianapolis stability in facing Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy defense, whereas Anthony Richardson’s struggles against the blitz would have made the Colts’ offense stagnant.

Why Minnesota will cover:

• Aaron Jones has a favorable matchup against the Colts’ struggling run defense, allowing the Vikings to establish the ground game and alleviate pressure on Darnold.
• Even with Darrisaw out, Darnold’s connection with Justin Jefferson could produce big plays if the Colts can’t apply consistent pressure on the Vikings’ pass protection.

Why game will go over:

• Both defenses have vulnerabilities—Minnesota’s offensive line without Darrisaw and Indianapolis’ run defense—which could lead to high-efficiency plays and quick scoring opportunities.
• Joe Flacco’s ability to handle the blitz and connect with Colts receivers could lead to sustained drives and scoring for Indianapolis.

Why game will go under:

• The Vikings may adopt a conservative, run-heavy approach with Jones to manage clock and limit Darnold’s exposure to pressure, slowing down the game pace.
• Indianapolis’ defense, with Buckner back, could disrupt Darnold enough to keep the Vikings’ scoring low, while Minnesota’s solid run defense limits Jonathan Taylor’s production.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Why Kansas City will cover:

• The Chiefs’ passing game has a significant advantage against a depleted Tampa Bay secondary, especially with DeAndre Hopkins getting more integrated and Travis Kelce in a favorable matchup against a defense that struggles against tight ends.
• Kansas City’s offense will be less reliant on the run, focusing on exploiting Tampa Bay’s weakened pass defense, allowing Mahomes and his receivers to put up points.

Why Tampa Bay will cover:

• Baker Mayfield has shown he can keep games close, and with Kansas City’s tendency to let opponents back-door covers in the regular season, he could make this a one-score game.
• Kansas City may have one eye on their upcoming divisional matchup, potentially limiting their motivation to cover a larger spread.

Why game will go over:

• Kansas City’s focus on the passing game, combined with Tampa’s vulnerability to wideouts and tight ends, could result in a high-scoring affair led by Mahomes and Kelce.
• If Mayfield connects on a few late drives, it could push the game over the total as both offenses exploit defensive weaknesses.

Why game will go under:

• With Tampa’s strong run defense limiting Kansas City’s ground game and the Chiefs playing conservatively to avoid injuries before a divisional game, the game pace may slow down.
• Tampa Bay’s cluster injuries on offense could hinder their scoring potential, especially if Mayfield’s primary targets are sidelined.