Liberty @ Dream [ Dream +4.5 / 166.5 ]
Liberty | 11-4 (73.3%)Dream | 10-6 (62.5%)
Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.
Our base model gives the Dream (+4.5) a 60.5-84.6% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 166.5 around 54.3-53.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Dream have a 82.9% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 54% chance of going over the total.
Baller Systems
Back home team in matchup between two elite teams
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 7/3 | NYL | - - | - | LAS | - | - | - |
| 6/29 | ATL | NYL -4.5 ATL +4.5 | 166.5 | NYL | - | - | - |
| 6/27 | PHO [ 106 ] | NYL +1.5 PHO -1.5 | 168.5 | NYL [ 91 ] | -15 | -13.5 | +28.5 |
| 6/25 | GSV [ 78 ] | NYL -9.5 GSV +9.5 | 162.5 | NYL [ 81 ] | +3 | -6.5 | -3.5 |
| 6/22 | SEA [ 89 ] | NYL +3.5 SEA -3.5 | 160.5 | NYL [ 79 ] | -10 | -6.5 | +7.5 |
| 6/19 | NYL [ 81 ] | NYL -11.5 PHO +11.5 | 163.5 | PHO [ 89 ] | -8 | -19.5 | +6.5 |
| 6/17 | NYL [ 86 ] | NYL -8 ATL +8 | 162.5 | ATL [ 81 ] | +5 | -3 | +4.5 |
| 6/14 | IND [ 102 ] | NYL -3.5 IND +3.5 | 170 | NYL [ 88 ] | -14 | -17.5 | +20 |
| 6/10 | NYL [ 85 ] | NYL -16.5 CHI +16.5 | 163.5 | CHI [ 66 ] | +19 | +2.5 | -12.5 |
| 6/5 | WAS [ 78 ] | NYL -13 WAS +13 | 160 | NYL [ 86 ] | +8 | -5 | +4 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 7/3 | ATL | - - | - | SEA | - | - | - |
| 6/29 | ATL | ATL +4.5 NYL -4.5 | 166.5 | NYL | - | - | - |
| 6/27 | ATL [ 92 ] | ATL +4 MIN -4 | 157.5 | MIN [ 96 ] | -4 | 0 | +30.5 |
| 6/24 | DAL [ 68 ] | ATL -8.5 DAL +8.5 | 169.5 | ATL [ 55 ] | -13 | -21.5 | -46.5 |
| 6/22 | ATL [ 93 ] | ATL -16.5 CHI +16.5 | 159.5 | CHI [ 80 ] | +13 | -3.5 | +13.5 |
| 6/20 | ATL [ 92 ] | ATL -9.5 WAS +9.5 | 157 | WAS [ 91 ] | +1 | -8.5 | +26 |
| 6/17 | NYL [ 86 ] | ATL +8 NYL -8 | 162.5 | ATL [ 81 ] | -5 | +3 | +4.5 |
| 6/15 | WAS [ 56 ] | ATL -4 WAS +4 | 158 | ATL [ 89 ] | +33 | +29 | -13 |
| 6/13 | ATL [ 88 ] | ATL -12.5 CHI +12.5 | 158.5 | CHI [ 70 ] | +18 | +5.5 | -0.5 |
| 6/10 | ATL [ 77 ] | ATL -5 IND +5 | 161 | IND [ 58 ] | +19 | +14 | -26 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | Pace | Ortg | Drtg | Net | Tot | |
| 8/23 | ATL | - - | - | NYL | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7/13 | NYL | - - | - | ATL | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6/29 | ATL | ATL +4.5 NYL -4.5 | 166.5 | NYL | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6/17 | NYL [ 86 ] | ATL +8 NYL -8 | 162.5 | ATL [ 81 ] | -5 | +3 | +4.5 | 92.8 | 104.8 | 111.3 | -6.5 | 167 |
| 9/24 | NYL [ 91 ] | ATL +12.5 NYL -12.5 | 156 | ATL [ 82 ] | -9 | +3.5 | +17 | 85.9 | 114.5 | 127.1 | -12.6 | 173 |
| 9/22 | NYL [ 83 ] | ATL +13 NYL -13 | 156 | ATL [ 69 ] | -14 | -1 | -4 | 95.7 | 86.5 | 104.1 | -17.6 | 152 |
| 9/19 | NYL [ 67 ] | ATL +5.5 NYL -5.5 | 157 | ATL [ 78 ] | +11 | +16.5 | -12 | 87.4 | 107.1 | 92 | 15.1 | 145 |
| 6/30 | NYL [ 81 ] | ATL +15.5 NYL -15.5 | 168 | ATL [ 75 ] | -6 | +9.5 | -12 | 91 | 98.9 | 106.8 | -7.9 | 156 |
| 6/23 | ATL [ 75 ] | ATL +9 NYL -9 | 165.5 | NYL [ 96 ] | -21 | -12 | +5.5 | 96.3 | 93.4 | 119.6 | -26.2 | 171 |
| 6/6 | ATL [ 61 ] | ATL +6.5 NYL -6.5 | 163.5 | NYL [ 78 ] | -17 | -10.5 | -24.5 | 91.9 | 79.6 | 101.8 | -22.2 | 139 |
| 7/27 | NYL [ 95 ] | ATL +8.5 NYL -8.5 | 175 | ATL [ 84 ] | -11 | -2.5 | +4 | 97.3 | 103.6 | 117.2 | -13.6 | 179 |
| Liberty ( game/s) |
Dream ( game/s) |
|
| - | Win Percentage | - |
| - | ATS Win% | - |
| - | OU% | - |
| - | Offensive Rating | - |
| - | Defensive Rating | - |
| - | Pace | - |
| - | A/TO Ratio | - |
| Liberty ( game/s) |
Dream ( game/s) |
|
| - | EFG% | - |
| - | EFG% Allowed | - |
| - | FT Rate | - |
| - | FT Rate Allowed | - |
| - | OReb% | - |
| - | OReb% Allowed | - |
| - | TO Rate | - |
| - | TO Rate Forced | - |
| Liberty ( game/s) |
Dream ( game/s) |
|
| - | PPG | - |
| - | PPG Allowed | - |
| - | Pts off TO | - |
| - | Pts off TO Allowed | - |
| - | 2nd Chance Pts | - |
| - | 2nd Chance Pts Allowed | - |
| - | Fast Break Pts | - |
| - | Fast Break Pts Allowed | - |
| Liberty ( game/s) |
Dream ( game/s) |
|
| - | Paint Attempts | - |
| - | Paint Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Paint FG% | - |
| - | Paint FG% Allowed | - |
| - | Mid-Range Attempts | - |
| - | Mid-Range Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Mid-Range FG% | - |
| - | Mid-Range FG% Allowed | - |
| Liberty ( game/s) |
Dream ( game/s) |
|
| - | Corner 3 Attempts | - |
| - | Corner 3 Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Corner 3 FG% | - |
| - | Corner 3 FG% Allowed | - |
| - | ATB3 Attempts | - |
| - | ATB3 Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | ATB3 FG% | - |
| - | ATB3 FG% Allowed | - |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Liberty | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Dream 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Dream | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Liberty | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Dream 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Dream | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Liberty | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Dream 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Dream | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Liberty | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Dream 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Dream | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Liberty | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Dream 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Dream | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Dog 10+ | Dog 7-10 | Dog 2.5-7 | Within 2.5 | Fav 2.5-7 | Fav 7-10 | Fav 10+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 0-0-0 (-) | 0-0-0 (-) | 0-1-0 (0%) | 0-1-0 (0%) | 1-2-0 (33.3%) | 1-2-0 (33.3%) | 4-3-0 (57.1%) |
| Dream | 0-0-0 (-) | 2-0-0 (100%) | 2-1-1 (66.7%) | 0-0-0 (-) | 2-0-0 (100%) | 2-3-0 (40%) | 1-2-0 (33.3%) |