NFL Betting | themoneyballer.com

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Updated: 10/08/25 2:14 p.m.

Thu, 10/9, 8:15 p.m.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

Eagles: 4-1 (80.0%) - NFC East

Giants: 1-4 (20.0%) - NFC East

Line: +7.5

Total: 40.5

Situational Systems

Eagles

Basic Systems

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Short rest: 3 days (TNF)

Baller Systems

Back road favorite off a loss as a home favorite

Giants

Basic Systems

Short rest: 3 days (TNF)

Baller Systems

Unders system based on the market total being substantially lower than average scoring

Back divisional home dogs when opponent next game is a division game

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Eagles

53.28% probability

Total Recommendation

Under

57.50% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Receiving Performance	Lean Giants	-	-
DVOA Advanced	Lean Eagles	-	-
Defensive Metrics	Eagles	-	-
Drive Performance	Giants	-	-
DVOA ZScores	Lean Eagles	-	-
Basic Stats	Lean Eagles	-	-
Luck Regression	Eagles	-	-
ATS Analysis	Lean Eagles	-	-
Cover Summary	Eagles	No Bet	No Bet
Possession Efficiency	Under	-	-
DVOA Regression	Lean Under	-	-
Comprehensive	Under	-	-
Down Efficiency	Under	-	-
Game Conditions	Under	-	-
Total Summary	Under	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Eagles \| Under

Notable Trends

The Giants are 20% (1-4) to the over/under

The Giants are 20% (1-4) to the over/under as a dog

The Giants are 20% (1-4) (L14) to the over/under

The Giants are 20% (1-4) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

View All Records

Giants (Home)

The Giants are 40% (2-3) against the spread

The Giants are 50% (1-1) against the spread at home

The Giants are 40% (2-3) against the spread as a dog

The Giants are 50% (1-1) against the spread as a home dog

The Giants are 20% (1-4) to the over/under

The Giants are 0% (0-2) to the over/under at home

The Giants are 20% (1-4) to the over/under as a dog

The Giants are 0% (0-2) to the over/under as a home dog

The Giants are 40% (2-3) (L14) against the spread

The Giants are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread at home

The Giants are 40% (2-3) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Giants are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Giants are 20% (1-4) (L14) to the over/under

The Giants are 0% (0-2) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Giants are 20% (1-4) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Giants are 0% (0-2) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog

Eagles (Away)

The Eagles are 60% (3-2) against the spread

The Eagles are 100% (2-0) against the spread away

The Eagles are 60% (3-2) against the spread as an fav

The Eagles are 100% (2-0) against the spread as an away fav

The Eagles are 40% (2-3) to the over/under

The Eagles are 50% (1-1) to the over/under away

The Eagles are 40% (2-3) to the over/under as an fav

The Eagles are 50% (1-1) to the over/under as an away fav

The Eagles are 60% (3-2) (L14) against the spread

The Eagles are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread away

The Eagles are 60% (3-2) (L14) against the spread as an fav

The Eagles are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Eagles are 40% (2-3) (L14) to the over/under

The Eagles are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under away

The Eagles are 40% (2-3) (L14) to the over/under as an fav

The Eagles are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Home	Pts	Away	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
01/05/25	2024	Eagles	20	Giants	13	320	51	269	1	1	-3.5	35.5	-7	33
10/20/24	2024	Giants	3	Eagles	28	181	76	105	0	3	+3.0	41.5	+25	31
01/07/24	2023	Giants	27	Eagles	10	420	109	311	2	1	+5.0	42.0	-17	37
12/25/23	2023	Eagles	33	Giants	25	471	170	301	1	4	-14.0	41.0	-8	58
01/21/23	2022	Eagles	38	Giants	7	422	268	154	1	1	-8.0	48.0	-31	45
01/08/23	2022	Eagles	22	Giants	16	364	135	229	0	0	-17.0	43.0	-6	38
12/11/22	2022	Giants	22	Eagles	48	339	123	216	0	2	+7.0	44.5	+26	70
Giants as Home (3 games)			17.3	-	28.7	313	103	211	0.7	2.0	+5.0	42.7	+11.3	46.0
All Games Avg (7 games)			16.1	-	28.4	360	133	226	0.7	1.7	-3.9	42.2	-2.6	44.6

Schedules

Eagles Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Eagles	-	home	Giants	-	-	-	-	-	-	-10.5	43.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Eagles	-	away	Vikings	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	45.0	-	-
10/09/25	2025	Eagles	-	away	Giants	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.5	40.5	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Eagles	17	home	Broncos	21	325	45	280	0	0	-4.0	44.5	+4	38
09/28/25	2025	Eagles	31	away	Buccaneers	25	218	88	130	1	2	-3.5	44.5	-6	56
09/21/25	2025	Eagles	33	home	Rams	26	312	86	226	1	1	-3.5	45.5	-7	59
09/14/25	2025	Eagles	20	away	Chiefs	17	223	122	101	1	1	-1.5	46.5	-3	37
09/04/25	2025	Eagles	24	home	Cowboys	20	310	158	152	0	0	-8.5	47.5	-4	44
02/09/25	2024	Eagles	40	neutral	Chiefs	22	356	135	221	2	0	+1.5	48.5	-18	62
01/26/25	2024	Eagles	55	home	Commanders	23	475	229	246	1	0	-6.0	46.5	-32	78
01/19/25	2024	Eagles	28	home	Rams	22	413	285	128	0	2	-7.0	43.5	-6	50
01/12/25	2024	Eagles	22	home	Packers	10	300	169	131	3	0	-5.5	46.5	-12	32
01/05/25	2024	Eagles	20	home	Giants	13	320	51	269	1	1	-3.5	35.5	-7	33
Away Games Avg (2 games)			25.5	-	-	21.0	221	105	116	1.0	1.5	-2.5	45.5	-4.5	46.5
All Games Avg (10 games)			29.0	-	-	19.9	325	137	188	1.0	0.7	-4.2	44.9	-9.1	48.9

Giants Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Giants	-	away	Eagles	-	-	-	-	-	-	+10.5	43.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Giants	-	away	Broncos	-	-	-	-	-	-	+6.5	42.5	-	-
10/09/25	2025	Giants	-	home	Eagles	-	-	-	-	-	-	+7.5	40.5	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Giants	14	away	Saints	26	338	136	202	0	3	+2.5	41.5	+12	40
09/28/25	2025	Giants	21	home	Chargers	18	280	161	119	2	2	+6.0	42.5	-3	39
09/21/25	2025	Giants	9	home	Chiefs	22	290	130	160	0	0	+6.0	44.5	+13	31
09/14/25	2025	Giants	37	away	Cowboys	40	534	84	450	1	1	+4.5	44.5	+3	77
09/07/25	2025	Giants	6	away	Commanders	21	242	74	168	0	1	+6.5	45.5	+15	27
01/05/25	2024	Giants	13	away	Eagles	20	238	100	138	0	1	+3.5	35.5	+7	33
12/29/24	2024	Giants	45	home	Colts	33	389	80	309	2	1	+7.5	40.5	-12	78
12/22/24	2024	Giants	7	away	Falcons	34	255	45	210	1	1	+9.5	43.0	+27	41
12/15/24	2024	Giants	14	home	Ravens	35	246	55	191	0	0	+16.5	43.5	+21	49
12/08/24	2024	Giants	11	home	Saints	14	339	112	227	1	0	+4.5	40.5	+3	25
Home Games Avg (5 games)			20.0	-	-	24.4	309	108	201	1.0	0.6	+8.1	42.3	+4.4	44.4
All Games Avg (10 games)			17.7	-	-	26.3	315	98	217	0.7	1.0	+6.7	42.2	+8.6	44.0

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Sun, 10/12, 12:00 a.m. (Neutral field)
New York Jets / Denver Broncos

Jets: 0-5 (0.0%) - AFC East

Broncos: 3-2 (60.0%) - AFC West

Line: -7.5

Total: 43.5

Situational Systems

Jets

Basic Systems

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Broncos

Basic Systems

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems

Unders system: back an under when a favorite is a bigger favorite than their previous game and their total is lower

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Jets

57.97% probability

Total Recommendation

Under

55.00% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Receiving Performance	Lean Broncos	-	-
DVOA Advanced	Jets	-	-
Defensive Metrics	Jets	-	-
Drive Performance	Jets	-	-
DVOA ZScores	Jets (2x)	-	-
Basic Stats	Lean Jets	-	-
Luck Regression	Lean Jets	-	-
ATS Analysis	Jets (2x)	-	-
Cover Summary	Jets	No Bet	No Bet
Possession Efficiency	Lean Under	-	-
DVOA Regression	Lean Under	-	-
Comprehensive	Under	-	-
Down Efficiency	Lean Under	-	-
Game Conditions	Under	-	-
Total Summary	Under	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Jets \| Under

Notable Trends

The Broncos are 20% (1-4) to the over/under

The Broncos are 20% (1-4) (L14) to the over/under

The Jets are 80% (4-1) to the over/under

The Jets are 75% (3-1) to the over/under as an dog

The Jets are 80% (4-1) (L14) to the over/under

The Jets are 75% (3-1) (L14) to the over/under as an dog

View All Records

Broncos (Home)

The Broncos are 40% (2-3) against the spread

The Broncos are 50% (1-1) against the spread at home

The Broncos are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread as a fav

The Broncos are 50% (1-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Broncos are 20% (1-4) to the over/under

The Broncos are 0% (0-2) to the over/under at home

The Broncos are 33.3% (1-2) to the over/under as a fav

The Broncos are 0% (0-2) to the over/under as a home fav

The Broncos are 40% (2-3) (L14) against the spread

The Broncos are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread at home

The Broncos are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Broncos are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Broncos are 20% (1-4) (L14) to the over/under

The Broncos are 0% (0-2) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Broncos are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Broncos are 0% (0-2) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Jets (Away)

The Jets are 40% (2-3) against the spread

The Jets are 50% (1-1) against the spread away

The Jets are 50% (2-2) against the spread as an dog

The Jets are 50% (1-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Jets are 80% (4-1) to the over/under

The Jets are 100% (2-0) to the over/under away

The Jets are 75% (3-1) to the over/under as an dog

The Jets are 100% (2-0) to the over/under as an away dog

The Jets are 40% (2-3) (L14) against the spread

The Jets are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Jets are 50% (2-2) (L14) against the spread as an dog

The Jets are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Jets are 80% (4-1) (L14) to the over/under

The Jets are 100% (2-0) (L14) to the over/under away

The Jets are 75% (3-1) (L14) to the over/under as an dog

The Jets are 100% (2-0) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Home	Pts	Away	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/29/24	2024	Jets	9	Broncos	10	289	64	225	0	1	-8.0	39.5	+1	19
10/08/23	2023	Broncos	21	Jets	31	335	139	196	1	4	-2.5	42.5	+10	52
10/23/22	2022	Broncos	9	Jets	16	330	105	225	0	1	+1.5	37.0	+7	25
Broncos as Home (2 games)			15.0	-	23.5	333	122	211	0.5	2.5	-0.5	39.8	+8.5	38.5
All Games Avg (3 games)			13.3	-	18.7	318	103	215	0.3	2.0	-3.0	39.7	+6.0	32.0

Schedules

Jets Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Jets	-	away	Bengals	-	-	-	-	-	-	+8.0	45.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Jets	-	home	Panthers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.5	-	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Jets	-	neutral	Broncos	-	-	-	-	-	-	+7.5	43.5	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Jets	22	home	Cowboys	37	427	144	283	0	1	-1.5	47.5	+15	59
09/29/25	2025	Jets	21	away	Dolphins	27	423	197	226	0	3	+2.5	43.5	+6	48
09/21/25	2025	Jets	27	away	Buccaneers	29	296	99	197	0	1	+6.5	43.5	+2	56
09/14/25	2025	Jets	10	home	Bills	30	183	100	83	0	3	+6.0	47.5	+20	40
09/07/25	2025	Jets	32	home	Steelers	34	400	182	218	0	1	+3.0	38.0	+2	66
01/05/25	2024	Jets	32	home	Dolphins	20	392	118	274	2	1	-2.5	39.5	-12	52
12/29/24	2024	Jets	14	away	Bills	40	307	112	195	0	2	+10.0	44.0	+26	54
12/22/24	2024	Jets	9	home	Rams	19	331	75	256	1	2	+3.0	47.0	+10	28
12/15/24	2024	Jets	32	away	Jaguars	25	414	125	289	2	0	-3.5	41.5	-7	57
12/08/24	2024	Jets	26	away	Dolphins	32	422	83	339	0	0	+6.5	45.0	+6	58
Away Games Avg (5 games)			24.0	-	-	30.6	372	123	249	0.4	1.2	+4.4	43.5	+6.6	54.6
All Games Avg (10 games)			22.5	-	-	29.3	360	124	236	0.5	1.4	+3.0	43.7	+6.8	51.8

Broncos Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Broncos	-	home	Cowboys	-	-	-	-	-	-	-4.0	45.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Broncos	-	home	Giants	-	-	-	-	-	-	-6.5	42.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Broncos	-	neutral	Jets	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.5	43.5	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Broncos	21	away	Eagles	17	372	130	242	0	0	+4.0	44.5	-4	38
09/29/25	2025	Broncos	28	home	Bengals	3	512	186	326	0	0	-7.5	44.5	-25	31
09/21/25	2025	Broncos	20	away	Chargers	23	271	118	153	1	0	+2.5	45.5	+3	43
09/14/25	2025	Broncos	28	away	Colts	29	324	118	206	0	0	-1.5	43.5	+1	57
09/07/25	2025	Broncos	20	home	Titans	12	327	151	176	0	2	-8.5	42.5	-8	32
01/12/25	2024	Broncos	7	away	Bills	31	238	79	159	0	0	+7.5	49.5	+24	38
01/05/25	2024	Broncos	38	home	Chiefs	0	479	158	321	0	0	-10.5	40.5	-38	38
12/28/24	2024	Broncos	24	away	Bengals	30	342	123	219	0	2	+3.5	50.5	+6	54
12/19/24	2024	Broncos	27	away	Chargers	34	373	110	263	1	1	+3.0	41.5	+7	61
12/15/24	2024	Broncos	31	home	Colts	13	202	72	130	2	0	-4.5	44.0	-18	44
Home Games Avg (4 games)			29.3	-	-	7.0	380	142	238	0.5	0.5	-7.8	42.9	-22.3	36.3
All Games Avg (10 games)			24.4	-	-	19.2	344	125	220	0.4	0.5	-1.2	44.7	-5.2	43.6

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Sun, 10/12, 1:00 p.m.
Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts

Cardinals: 2-3 (40.0%) - NFC West

Colts: 4-1 (80.0%) - AFC South

Line: -7.0

Total: 47.0

Situational Systems

Cardinals

Basic Systems

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Colts

No systems active

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Cardinals

54.06% probability

Total Recommendation

Under

53.13% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Receiving Performance	Lean Colts	-	-
DVOA Advanced	Lean Cardinals	-	-
Defensive Metrics	Cardinals	-	-
Drive Performance	Colts	-	-
DVOA ZScores	Cardinals (2x)	-	-
Basic Stats	Lean Colts	-	-
Luck Regression	Lean Cardinals	-	-
ATS Analysis	Lean Cardinals	-	-
Cover Summary	Cardinals	No Bet	No Bet
Possession Efficiency	Lean Under	-	-
DVOA Regression	Lean Under	-	-
Comprehensive	Lean Under	-	-
Down Efficiency	Lean Under	-	-
Game Conditions	Lean Under	-	-
Total Summary	Under	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Cardinals \| Under

Notable Trends

The Colts are 80% (4-1) against the spread

The Colts are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread

View All Records

Colts (Home)

The Colts are 80% (4-1) against the spread

The Colts are 100% (3-0) against the spread at home

The Colts are 100% (3-0) against the spread as a fav

The Colts are 100% (2-0) against the spread as a home fav

The Colts are 40% (2-3) to the over/under

The Colts are 33.3% (1-2) to the over/under at home

The Colts are 33.3% (1-2) to the over/under as a fav

The Colts are 0% (0-2) to the over/under as a home fav

The Colts are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread

The Colts are 100% (3-0) (L14) against the spread at home

The Colts are 100% (3-0) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Colts are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Colts are 40% (2-3) (L14) to the over/under

The Colts are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Colts are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Colts are 0% (0-2) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Cardinals (Away)

The Cardinals are 40% (2-3) against the spread

The Cardinals are 100% (2-0) against the spread away

The Cardinals are 50% (1-1) against the spread as an dog

The Cardinals are 100% (1-0) against the spread as an away dog

The Cardinals are 40% (2-3) to the over/under

The Cardinals are 0% (0-2) to the over/under away

The Cardinals are 0% (0-2) to the over/under as an dog

The Cardinals are 0% (0-1) to the over/under as an away dog

The Cardinals are 40% (2-3) (L14) against the spread

The Cardinals are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread away

The Cardinals are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread as an dog

The Cardinals are 100% (1-0) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Cardinals are 40% (2-3) (L14) to the over/under

The Cardinals are 0% (0-2) (L14) to the over/under away

The Cardinals are 0% (0-2) (L14) to the over/under as an dog

The Cardinals are 0% (0-1) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

No previous matchups between these teams in the last 3 seasons.

Schedules

Cardinals Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/03/25	2025	Cardinals	-	away	Cowboys	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.5	48.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Cardinals	-	home	Packers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.5	47.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Cardinals	-	away	Colts	-	-	-	-	-	-	+7.0	47.0	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Cardinals	21	home	Titans	22	388	168	220	1	3	-7.5	41.5	+1	43
09/25/25	2025	Cardinals	20	home	Seahawks	23	289	89	200	0	0	+1.5	43.5	+3	43
09/21/25	2025	Cardinals	15	away	Fortyniners	16	265	106	159	1	1	+1.5	44.5	+1	31
09/14/25	2025	Cardinals	27	home	Panthers	22	302	82	220	1	0	-7.0	45.5	-5	49
09/07/25	2025	Cardinals	20	away	Saints	13	309	146	163	0	0	-5.5	44.5	-7	33
01/05/25	2024	Cardinals	47	home	Fortyniners	24	393	151	242	2	1	-5.5	43.5	-23	71
12/28/24	2024	Cardinals	9	away	Rams	13	434	113	321	0	0	+6.5	48.0	+4	22
12/22/24	2024	Cardinals	30	away	Panthers	36	408	206	202	0	1	-5.5	47.0	+6	66
12/15/24	2024	Cardinals	30	home	Patriots	17	395	163	232	1	2	-6.0	46.5	-13	47
12/08/24	2024	Cardinals	18	home	Seahawks	30	380	121	259	0	1	-3.0	45.5	+12	48
Away Games Avg (4 games)			18.5	-	-	19.5	354	143	211	0.3	0.5	-0.8	46.0	+1.0	38.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			23.7	-	-	21.6	356	135	222	0.6	0.9	-3.1	45.0	-2.1	45.3

Colts Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Colts	-	home	Titans	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	44.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Colts	-	away	Chargers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+6.5	45.0	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Colts	-	home	Cardinals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.0	47.0	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Colts	40	home	Raiders	6	317	96	221	2	1	-7.5	46.5	-34	46
09/28/25	2025	Colts	20	away	Rams	27	347	85	262	0	2	+3.5	49.5	+7	47
09/21/25	2025	Colts	41	away	Titans	20	365	137	228	1	0	-6.0	42.5	-21	61
09/14/25	2025	Colts	29	home	Broncos	28	483	167	316	1	0	+1.5	43.5	-1	57
09/07/25	2025	Colts	33	home	Dolphins	8	428	156	272	2	0	-1.5	47.0	-25	41
01/05/25	2024	Colts	26	home	Jaguars	23	441	177	264	1	0	-3.5	46.5	-3	49
12/29/24	2024	Colts	33	away	Giants	45	456	126	330	0	1	-7.5	40.5	+12	78
12/22/24	2024	Colts	38	home	Titans	30	466	335	131	3	0	-4.0	43.0	-8	68
12/15/24	2024	Colts	13	away	Broncos	31	321	149	172	3	3	+4.5	44.0	+18	44
12/01/24	2024	Colts	25	away	Patriots	24	253	144	109	1	0	-2.5	41.0	-1	49
Home Games Avg (5 games)			33.2	-	-	19.0	427	186	241	1.8	0.2	-3.0	45.3	-14.2	52.2
All Games Avg (10 games)			29.8	-	-	24.2	388	157	231	1.4	0.7	-2.3	44.4	-5.6	54.0

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Sun, 10/12, 1:00 p.m.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins

Chargers: 3-2 (60.0%) - AFC West

Dolphins: 1-4 (20.0%) - AFC East

Line: +4.0

Total: 43.0

Situational Systems

Chargers

Basic Systems

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

West Coast team traveling East

Baller Systems

Back road favorite off a loss as a home favorite

Back favorite off a game as a fav w/ low turnovers

Dolphins

Basic Systems

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Chargers

54.06% probability

Total Recommendation

Over

53.75% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Receiving Performance	Lean Dolphins	-	-
DVOA Advanced	Lean Chargers	-	-
Defensive Metrics	Chargers	-	-
Drive Performance	Lean Chargers	-	-
DVOA ZScores	Lean Chargers	-	-
Basic Stats	Lean Chargers	-	-
Luck Regression	Chargers	-	-
ATS Analysis	Lean Chargers	-	-
Cover Summary	Chargers	No Bet	No Bet
Possession Efficiency	Lean Over	-	-
DVOA Regression	Lean Under	-	-
Comprehensive	Lean Under	-	-
Down Efficiency	Lean Over	-	-
Game Conditions	Over	-	-
Total Summary	Over	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Chargers \| Over

Notable Trends

The Dolphins are 80% (4-1) to the over/under

The Dolphins are 80% (4-1) (L14) to the over/under

The Chargers are 20% (1-4) to the over/under

The Chargers are 0% (0-4) to the over/under as an fav

The Chargers are 20% (1-4) (L14) to the over/under

The Chargers are 0% (0-4) (L14) to the over/under as an fav

View All Records

Dolphins (Home)

The Dolphins are 40% (2-3) against the spread

The Dolphins are 50% (1-1) against the spread at home

The Dolphins are 50% (1-1) against the spread as a dog

The Dolphins are 80% (4-1) to the over/under

The Dolphins are 100% (2-0) to the over/under at home

The Dolphins are 50% (1-1) to the over/under as a dog

The Dolphins are 40% (2-3) (L14) against the spread

The Dolphins are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread at home

The Dolphins are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Dolphins are 80% (4-1) (L14) to the over/under

The Dolphins are 100% (2-0) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Dolphins are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

Chargers (Away)

The Chargers are 60% (3-2) against the spread

The Chargers are 50% (1-1) against the spread away

The Chargers are 50% (2-2) against the spread as an fav

The Chargers are 50% (1-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Chargers are 20% (1-4) to the over/under

The Chargers are 0% (0-2) to the over/under away

The Chargers are 0% (0-4) to the over/under as an fav

The Chargers are 0% (0-2) to the over/under as an away fav

The Chargers are 60% (3-2) (L14) against the spread

The Chargers are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Chargers are 50% (2-2) (L14) against the spread as an fav

The Chargers are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Chargers are 20% (1-4) (L14) to the over/under

The Chargers are 0% (0-2) (L14) to the over/under away

The Chargers are 0% (0-4) (L14) to the over/under as an fav

The Chargers are 0% (0-2) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Home	Pts	Away	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/10/23	2023	Chargers	34	Dolphins	36	462	233	229	1	0	-3.0	50.0	+2	70
12/11/22	2022	Chargers	23	Dolphins	17	449	82	367	0	1	+3.0	54.5	-6	40
All Games Avg (2 games)			26.5	-	28.5	456	158	298	0.5	0.5	0.0	52.3	-2.0	55.0

Schedules

Chargers Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/23/25	2025	Chargers	-	home	Vikings	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.0	44.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Chargers	-	home	Colts	-	-	-	-	-	-	-6.5	45.0	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Chargers	-	away	Dolphins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-4.0	43.0	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Chargers	10	home	Commanders	27	365	155	210	0	1	-3.0	48.5	+17	37
09/28/25	2025	Chargers	18	away	Giants	21	355	152	203	0	0	-6.0	42.5	+3	39
09/21/25	2025	Chargers	23	home	Broncos	20	406	106	300	0	2	-2.5	45.5	-3	43
09/15/25	2025	Chargers	20	away	Raiders	9	323	81	242	3	2	-3.5	46.5	-11	29
09/05/25	2025	Chargers	27	neutral	Chiefs	21	408	90	318	0	1	+3.0	47.5	-6	48
01/11/25	2024	Chargers	12	away	Texans	32	292	50	242	1	1	-3.0	42.5	+20	44
01/05/25	2024	Chargers	34	away	Raiders	20	483	137	346	1	1	-7.0	42.5	-14	54
12/28/24	2024	Chargers	40	away	Patriots	7	428	147	281	0	0	-6.0	41.5	-33	47
12/19/24	2024	Chargers	34	home	Broncos	27	401	117	284	0	1	-3.0	41.5	-7	61
12/15/24	2024	Chargers	17	home	Buccaneers	40	231	32	199	1	2	-3.0	46.0	+23	57
Away Games Avg (5 games)			24.8	-	-	17.8	376	113	263	1.0	0.8	-5.1	43.1	-7.0	42.6
All Games Avg (10 games)			23.5	-	-	22.4	369	107	263	0.6	1.1	-3.4	44.5	-1.1	45.9

Dolphins Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Dolphins	-	away	Falcons	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.5	46.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Dolphins	-	away	Browns	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.5	43.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Dolphins	-	home	Chargers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.0	43.0	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Dolphins	24	away	Panthers	27	275	19	256	1	0	-1.5	44.5	+3	51
09/29/25	2025	Dolphins	27	home	Jets	21	300	123	177	0	2	-2.5	43.5	-6	48
09/18/25	2025	Dolphins	21	away	Bills	31	276	130	146	0	1	+11.5	50.5	+10	52
09/14/25	2025	Dolphins	27	home	Patriots	33	376	61	315	0	0	-2.5	43.5	+6	60
09/07/25	2025	Dolphins	8	away	Colts	33	224	78	146	0	1	+1.5	47.0	+25	41
01/05/25	2024	Dolphins	20	away	Jets	32	362	135	227	1	5	+2.5	39.5	+12	52
12/29/24	2024	Dolphins	20	away	Browns	3	299	74	225	1	1	-3.0	32.5	-17	23
12/22/24	2024	Dolphins	29	home	Fortyniners	17	381	166	215	1	1	+2.0	44.0	-12	46
12/15/24	2024	Dolphins	12	away	Texans	20	248	52	196	0	2	+2.5	46.5	+8	32
12/08/24	2024	Dolphins	32	home	Jets	26	375	44	331	0	0	-6.5	45.0	-6	58
Home Games Avg (4 games)			28.8	-	-	24.3	358	99	260	0.3	0.8	-2.4	44.0	-4.5	53.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			22.0	-	-	24.3	312	88	223	0.4	1.3	+0.4	43.7	+2.3	46.3

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Sun, 10/12, 1:00 p.m.
Seattle Seahawks @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Seahawks: 3-2 (60.0%) - NFC West

Jaguars: 4-1 (80.0%) - AFC South

Line: -1.0

Total: 47.5

Situational Systems

Seahawks

Basic Systems

Rest Advantage

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

West Coast team traveling East

Baller Systems

Back early season short, road underdogs who won last matchup

Jaguars

Basic Systems

Short rest: 4 or 5 days

Rest Disadvantage

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Jaguars

53.28% probability

Total Recommendation

Under

55.00% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Receiving Performance	Lean Jaguars	-	-
DVOA Advanced	Lean Jaguars	-	-
Defensive Metrics	Lean Seahawks	-	-
Drive Performance	Jaguars	-	-
DVOA ZScores	Lean Seahawks	-	-
Basic Stats	Lean Jaguars	-	-
Luck Regression	Lean Seahawks	-	-
ATS Analysis	Lean Jaguars	-	-
Cover Summary	Jaguars	No Bet	No Bet
Possession Efficiency	Lean Under	-	-
DVOA Regression	Lean Under	-	-
Comprehensive	Under	-	-
Down Efficiency	Lean Over	-	-
Game Conditions	Under	-	-
Total Summary	Under	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Jaguars \| Under

Notable Trends

The Jaguars are 80% (4-1) against the spread

The Jaguars are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread

View All Records

Jaguars (Home)

The Jaguars are 80% (4-1) against the spread

The Jaguars are 100% (3-0) against the spread at home

The Jaguars are 100% (2-0) against the spread as a fav

The Jaguars are 100% (2-0) against the spread as a home fav

The Jaguars are 60% (3-2) to the over/under

The Jaguars are 33.3% (1-2) to the over/under at home

The Jaguars are 0% (0-2) to the over/under as a fav

The Jaguars are 0% (0-2) to the over/under as a home fav

The Jaguars are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread

The Jaguars are 100% (3-0) (L14) against the spread at home

The Jaguars are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Jaguars are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Jaguars are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under

The Jaguars are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Jaguars are 0% (0-2) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Jaguars are 0% (0-2) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Seahawks (Away)

The Seahawks are 60% (3-2) against the spread

The Seahawks are 100% (2-0) against the spread away

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1) against the spread as an dog

The Seahawks are 100% (1-0) against the spread as an away dog

The Seahawks are 60% (3-2) to the over/under

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1) to the over/under away

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1) to the over/under as an dog

The Seahawks are 100% (1-0) to the over/under as an away dog

The Seahawks are 60% (3-2) (L14) against the spread

The Seahawks are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread away

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread as an dog

The Seahawks are 100% (1-0) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Seahawks are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under away

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under as an dog

The Seahawks are 100% (1-0) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

No previous matchups between these teams in the last 3 seasons.

Schedules

Seahawks Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/02/25	2025	Seahawks	-	away	Commanders	-	-	-	-	-	-	+5.5	-	-	-
10/20/25	2025	Seahawks	-	home	Texans	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.0	44.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Seahawks	-	away	Jaguars	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.0	47.5	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Seahawks	35	home	Buccaneers	38	463	122	341	0	1	-3.5	44.5	+3	73
09/25/25	2025	Seahawks	23	away	Cardinals	20	397	155	242	2	2	-1.5	43.5	-3	43
09/21/25	2025	Seahawks	44	home	Saints	13	320	87	233	1	1	-7.5	41.5	-31	57
09/14/25	2025	Seahawks	31	away	Steelers	17	412	117	295	2	0	+3.5	40.5	-14	48
09/07/25	2025	Seahawks	13	home	Fortyniners	17	234	84	150	2	3	+2.5	43.5	+4	30
01/05/25	2024	Seahawks	30	away	Rams	25	317	126	191	1	0	-7.5	38.5	-5	55
12/26/24	2024	Seahawks	6	away	Bears	3	282	122	160	1	3	-4.5	43.0	-3	9
12/22/24	2024	Seahawks	24	home	Vikings	27	373	59	314	0	0	+2.5	43.0	+3	51
12/15/24	2024	Seahawks	13	home	Packers	30	253	80	173	0	0	+3.0	48.5	+17	43
12/08/24	2024	Seahawks	30	away	Cardinals	18	409	176	233	2	1	+3.0	45.5	-12	48
Away Games Avg (5 games)			24.0	-	-	16.6	363	139	224	1.6	1.2	-1.4	42.2	-7.4	40.6
All Games Avg (10 games)			24.9	-	-	20.8	346	113	233	1.1	1.1	-1.0	43.2	-4.1	45.7

Jaguars Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/02/25	2025	Jaguars	-	away	Raiders	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.5	45.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Jaguars	-	neutral	Rams	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.5	47.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Jaguars	-	home	Seahawks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.0	47.5	-	-
10/06/25	2025	Jaguars	31	home	Chiefs	28	330	109	221	1	1	+3.5	45.5	-3	59
09/28/25	2025	Jaguars	26	away	Fortyniners	21	325	151	174	2	1	+3.5	45.5	-5	47
09/21/25	2025	Jaguars	17	home	Texans	10	308	86	222	2	0	-1.5	42.5	-7	27
09/14/25	2025	Jaguars	27	away	Bengals	31	410	139	271	3	1	+3.5	49.5	+4	58
09/07/25	2025	Jaguars	26	home	Panthers	10	378	200	178	2	0	-4.5	45.5	-16	36
01/05/25	2024	Jaguars	23	away	Colts	26	338	113	225	0	1	+3.5	46.5	+3	49
12/29/24	2024	Jaguars	20	home	Titans	13	296	122	174	1	0	+1.0	38.5	-7	33
12/22/24	2024	Jaguars	14	away	Raiders	19	319	72	247	0	3	+2.0	42.0	+5	33
12/15/24	2024	Jaguars	25	home	Jets	32	430	136	294	0	1	+3.5	41.5	+7	57
12/08/24	2024	Jaguars	10	away	Titans	6	291	71	220	0	0	+3.0	40.0	-4	16
Home Games Avg (5 games)			23.8	-	-	18.6	348	131	218	1.2	0.4	+0.4	42.7	-5.2	42.4
All Games Avg (10 games)			21.9	-	-	19.6	343	120	223	1.1	0.8	+1.8	43.7	-2.3	41.5

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Sun, 10/12, 1:00 p.m.
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers

Cowboys: 2-2 (50.0%) - NFC East

Panthers: 2-3 (40.0%) - NFC South

Line: +3.0

Total: 49.5

Situational Systems

Cowboys

Basic Systems

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Baller Systems

Unders system: based on team with consecutive road games and a higher than average total

Panthers

Basic Systems

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

No Play

Total Recommendation

Under

57.50% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Receiving Performance	Lean Panthers	-	-
DVOA Advanced	Lean Cowboys	-	-
Defensive Metrics	Cowboys	-	-
Drive Performance	Panthers	-	-
DVOA ZScores	Lean Cowboys	-	-
Basic Stats	Panthers	-	-
Luck Regression	Cowboys	-	-
ATS Analysis	Lean Cowboys	-	-
Cover Summary	No Bet	No Bet	No Bet
Possession Efficiency	Under	-	-
DVOA Regression	Lean Under	-	-
Comprehensive	Under	-	-
Down Efficiency	Under	-	-
Game Conditions	Under	-	-
Total Summary	Under	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| Under

Notable Trends

No notable trends identified for this matchup.

View All Records

Panthers (Home)

The Panthers are 60% (3-2) against the spread

The Panthers are 100% (2-0) against the spread at home

The Panthers are 60% (3-2) against the spread as a dog

The Panthers are 100% (2-0) against the spread as a home dog

The Panthers are 60% (3-2) to the over/under

The Panthers are 50% (1-1) to the over/under at home

The Panthers are 60% (3-2) to the over/under as a dog

The Panthers are 50% (1-1) to the over/under as a home dog

The Panthers are 60% (3-2) (L14) against the spread

The Panthers are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread at home

The Panthers are 60% (3-2) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Panthers are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Panthers are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under

The Panthers are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Panthers are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Panthers are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog

Cowboys (Away)

The Cowboys are 60% (3-2) against the spread

The Cowboys are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread away

The Cowboys are 0% (0-2) against the spread as an fav

The Cowboys are 0% (0-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Cowboys are 60% (3-2) to the over/under

The Cowboys are 33.3% (1-2) to the over/under away

The Cowboys are 50% (1-1) to the over/under as an fav

The Cowboys are 0% (0-1) to the over/under as an away fav

The Cowboys are 60% (3-2) (L14) against the spread

The Cowboys are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Cowboys are 0% (0-2) (L14) against the spread as an fav

The Cowboys are 0% (0-1) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Cowboys are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under

The Cowboys are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) to the over/under away

The Cowboys are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under as an fav

The Cowboys are 0% (0-1) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Home	Pts	Away	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/15/24	2024	Panthers	14	Cowboys	30	279	60	219	0	2	-2.5	42.0	+16	44
11/19/23	2023	Panthers	10	Cowboys	33	233	110	123	0	2	+11.0	43.0	+23	43
Panthers as Home (2 games)			12.0	-	31.5	256	85	171	0.0	2.0	+4.3	42.5	+19.5	43.5
All Games Avg (2 games)			12.0	-	31.5	256	85	171	0.0	2.0	+4.3	42.5	+19.5	43.5

Schedules

Cowboys Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Cowboys	-	away	Broncos	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.0	45.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Cowboys	-	home	Commanders	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.5	48.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Cowboys	-	away	Panthers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.0	49.5	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Cowboys	37	away	Jets	22	417	180	237	0	0	+1.5	47.5	-15	59
09/28/25	2025	Cowboys	40	home	Packers	40	436	117	319	0	0	+6.5	47.0	0	80
09/21/25	2025	Cowboys	14	away	Bears	31	413	121	292	0	1	-1.5	50.5	+17	45
09/14/25	2025	Cowboys	40	home	Giants	37	496	135	361	1	1	-4.5	44.5	-3	77
09/04/25	2025	Cowboys	20	away	Eagles	24	307	119	188	0	1	+8.5	47.5	+4	44
01/05/25	2024	Cowboys	19	home	Commanders	23	394	150	244	0	0	+7.0	43.5	+4	42
12/29/24	2024	Cowboys	7	away	Eagles	41	275	127	148	0	2	+7.5	37.5	+34	48
12/22/24	2024	Cowboys	26	home	Buccaneers	24	323	31	292	1	0	+6.0	49.0	-2	50
12/15/24	2024	Cowboys	30	away	Panthers	14	425	211	214	2	2	+2.5	42.0	-16	44
12/09/24	2024	Cowboys	20	home	Bengals	27	339	156	183	1	1	+4.5	51.0	+7	47
Away Games Avg (5 games)			21.6	-	-	26.4	367	152	216	0.4	1.2	+3.7	45.0	+4.8	48.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			25.3	-	-	28.3	383	135	248	0.5	0.8	+3.8	46.0	+3.0	53.6

Panthers Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Panthers	-	home	Bills	-	-	-	-	-	-	+7.0	48.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Panthers	-	away	Jets	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.5	-	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Panthers	-	home	Cowboys	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	49.5	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Panthers	27	home	Dolphins	24	437	239	198	0	1	+1.5	44.5	-3	51
09/28/25	2025	Panthers	13	away	Patriots	42	337	129	208	0	1	+5.5	42.5	+29	55
09/21/25	2025	Panthers	30	home	Falcons	0	231	110	121	2	1	+4.5	44.0	-30	30
09/14/25	2025	Panthers	22	away	Cardinals	27	377	49	328	1	1	+7.0	45.5	+5	49
09/07/25	2025	Panthers	10	away	Jaguars	26	267	113	154	1	1	+4.5	45.5	+16	36
01/05/25	2024	Panthers	44	away	Falcons	38	425	155	270	1	1	+7.5	48.5	-6	82
12/29/24	2024	Panthers	14	away	Buccaneers	48	242	39	203	0	2	+9.5	47.5	+34	62
12/22/24	2024	Panthers	36	home	Cardinals	30	401	243	158	1	0	+5.5	47.0	-6	66
12/15/24	2024	Panthers	14	home	Cowboys	30	279	60	219	0	2	-2.5	42.0	+16	44
12/08/24	2024	Panthers	16	away	Eagles	22	309	118	191	0	0	+14.0	44.5	+6	38
Home Games Avg (4 games)			26.8	-	-	21.0	337	163	174	0.8	1.0	+2.3	44.4	-5.8	47.8
All Games Avg (10 games)			22.6	-	-	28.7	331	126	205	0.6	1.0	+5.7	45.2	+6.1	51.3

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Sun, 10/12, 1:00 p.m.
Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens

Rams: 3-2 (60.0%) - NFC West

Ravens: 1-4 (20.0%) - AFC North

Line: +7.5

Total: 44.5

Situational Systems

Rams

Basic Systems

Extended rest: Non-bye week

Rest Advantage

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

West Coast team traveling East

Coming off an Overtime game

Baller Systems

Back road favorite off a loss as a home favorite

Back favorite off a game as a fav w/ low turnovers

Ravens

Basic Systems

Rest Disadvantage

Lookahead to bye week

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Rams

56.41% probability

Total Recommendation

Over

53.75% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Receiving Performance	Lean Ravens	-	-
DVOA Advanced	Lean Rams	-	-
Defensive Metrics	Rams	-	-
Drive Performance	Rams	-	-
DVOA ZScores	Lean Rams	-	-
Basic Stats	Rams	-	-
Luck Regression	Rams (2x)	-	-
ATS Analysis	Lean Rams	-	-
Cover Summary	Rams	No Bet	No Bet
Possession Efficiency	Lean Under	-	-
DVOA Regression	Lean Under	-	-
Comprehensive	Under	-	-
Down Efficiency	Over	-	-
Game Conditions	Over	-	-
Total Summary	Over	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Rams \| Over

Notable Trends

The Ravens are 20% (1-4) against the spread

The Ravens are 100% (5-0) to the over/under

The Ravens are 20% (1-4) (L14) against the spread

The Ravens are 100% (5-0) (L14) to the over/under

The Rams are 75% (3-1) against the spread as an fav

The Rams are 75% (3-1) (L14) against the spread as an fav

View All Records

Ravens (Home)

The Ravens are 20% (1-4) against the spread

The Ravens are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread at home

The Ravens are 0% (0-1) against the spread as a dog

The Ravens are 0% (0-1) against the spread as a home dog

The Ravens are 100% (5-0) to the over/under

The Ravens are 100% (3-0) to the over/under at home

The Ravens are 100% (1-0) to the over/under as a dog

The Ravens are 100% (1-0) to the over/under as a home dog

The Ravens are 20% (1-4) (L14) against the spread

The Ravens are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) against the spread at home

The Ravens are 0% (0-1) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Ravens are 0% (0-1) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Ravens are 100% (5-0) (L14) to the over/under

The Ravens are 100% (3-0) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Ravens are 100% (1-0) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Ravens are 100% (1-0) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog

Rams (Away)

The Rams are 60% (3-2) against the spread

The Rams are 50% (1-1) against the spread away

The Rams are 75% (3-1) against the spread as an fav

The Rams are 100% (1-0) against the spread as an away fav

The Rams are 60% (3-2) to the over/under

The Rams are 100% (2-0) to the over/under away

The Rams are 50% (2-2) to the over/under as an fav

The Rams are 100% (1-0) to the over/under as an away fav

The Rams are 60% (3-2) (L14) against the spread

The Rams are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Rams are 75% (3-1) (L14) against the spread as an fav

The Rams are 100% (1-0) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Rams are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under

The Rams are 100% (2-0) (L14) to the over/under away

The Rams are 50% (2-2) (L14) to the over/under as an fav

The Rams are 100% (1-0) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Home	Pts	Away	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/10/23	2023	Ravens	37	Rams	31	455	139	316	0	1	-7.5	42.0	-6	68
Ravens as Home (1 games)			37.0	-	31.0	455	139	316	0.0	1.0	-7.5	42.0	-6.0	68.0
All Games Avg (1 games)			37.0	-	31.0	455	139	316	0.0	1.0	-7.5	42.0	-6.0	68.0

Schedules

Rams Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/02/25	2025	Rams	-	home	Saints	-	-	-	-	-	-	-10.5	44.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Rams	-	neutral	Jaguars	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	47.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Rams	-	away	Ravens	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.5	44.5	-	-
10/02/25	2025	Rams	23	home	Fortyniners	26	467	78	389	0	2	-7.5	43.5	+3	49
09/28/25	2025	Rams	27	home	Colts	20	477	102	375	2	1	-3.5	49.5	-7	47
09/21/25	2025	Rams	26	away	Eagles	33	356	160	196	0	0	+3.5	45.5	+7	59
09/14/25	2025	Rams	33	away	Titans	19	447	149	298	0	1	-5.5	41.5	-14	52
09/07/25	2025	Rams	14	home	Texans	9	317	72	245	1	2	-3.0	43.0	-5	23
01/19/25	2024	Rams	22	away	Eagles	28	435	111	324	0	3	+7.0	43.5	+6	50
01/13/25	2024	Rams	27	neutral	Vikings	9	299	90	209	1	0	+2.5	47.5	-18	36
01/05/25	2024	Rams	25	home	Seahawks	30	418	84	334	0	0	+7.5	38.5	+5	55
12/28/24	2024	Rams	13	home	Cardinals	9	257	68	189	2	0	-6.5	48.0	-4	22
12/22/24	2024	Rams	19	away	Jets	9	242	132	110	0	0	-3.0	47.0	-10	28
Away Games Avg (4 games)			25.0	-	-	22.3	370	138	232	0.0	1.0	+0.5	44.4	-2.8	47.3
All Games Avg (10 games)			22.9	-	-	19.2	372	105	267	0.6	0.9	-0.9	44.8	-3.7	42.1

Ravens Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/30/25	2025	Ravens	-	away	Dolphins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-5.5	48.5	-	-
10/26/25	2025	Ravens	-	home	Bears	-	-	-	-	-	-	-6.5	50.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Ravens	-	home	Rams	-	-	-	-	-	-	+7.5	44.5	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Ravens	10	home	Texans	44	223	44	179	0	0	+2.5	41.5	+34	54
09/28/25	2025	Ravens	20	away	Chiefs	37	365	166	199	0	1	-2.5	48.5	+17	57
09/22/25	2025	Ravens	30	home	Lions	38	373	85	288	0	2	-4.5	53.5	+8	68
09/14/25	2025	Ravens	41	home	Browns	17	270	45	225	1	1	-12.5	46.5	-24	58
09/07/25	2025	Ravens	40	away	Bills	41	447	238	209	0	2	-1.5	51.5	+1	81
01/19/25	2024	Ravens	25	away	Bills	27	430	176	254	0	3	-1.5	51.5	+2	52
01/11/25	2024	Ravens	28	home	Steelers	14	474	299	175	0	1	-9.5	44.5	-14	42
01/04/25	2024	Ravens	35	home	Browns	10	437	220	217	2	0	-19.5	42.5	-25	45
12/25/24	2024	Ravens	31	away	Texans	2	435	251	184	1	0	-6.5	47.5	-29	33
12/21/24	2024	Ravens	34	home	Steelers	17	427	220	207	1	3	-7.0	44.0	-17	51
Home Games Avg (6 games)			29.7	-	-	23.3	367	152	215	0.7	1.2	-8.4	45.4	-6.3	53.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			29.4	-	-	24.7	388	174	214	0.5	1.3	-6.3	47.2	-4.7	54.1

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Sun, 10/12, 1:00 p.m.
New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints

Patriots: 3-2 (60.0%) - AFC East

Saints: 1-4 (20.0%) - NFC South

Line: +3.5

Total: 46.0

Situational Systems

Patriots

Basic Systems

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems

Unders system: back an under when a favorite is a bigger favorite than their previous game and their total is lower

Unders system: based on team with consecutive road games and a higher than average total

Saints

No systems active

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Patriots

53.28% probability

Total Recommendation

No Play

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Receiving Performance	Lean Saints	-	-
DVOA Advanced	Lean Saints	-	-
Defensive Metrics	Patriots	-	-
Drive Performance	Lean Patriots	-	-
DVOA ZScores	Lean Saints	-	-
Basic Stats	Lean Saints	-	-
Luck Regression	Lean Patriots	-	-
ATS Analysis	Lean Saints	-	-
Cover Summary	Patriots	No Bet	No Bet
Possession Efficiency	Lean Under	-	-
DVOA Regression	Lean Under	-	-
Comprehensive	Under	-	-
Down Efficiency	Lean Over	-	-
Game Conditions	Over	-	-
Total Summary	No Bet	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Patriots \| No Total Edge

Notable Trends

The Saints are 25% (1-3) against the spread as a dog

The Saints are 75% (3-1) to the over/under as a dog

The Saints are 25% (1-3) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Saints are 75% (3-1) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

View All Records

Saints (Home)

The Saints are 40% (2-3) against the spread

The Saints are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread at home

The Saints are 25% (1-3) against the spread as a dog

The Saints are 0% (0-2) against the spread as a home dog

The Saints are 60% (3-2) to the over/under

The Saints are 33.3% (1-2) to the over/under at home

The Saints are 75% (3-1) to the over/under as a dog

The Saints are 50% (1-1) to the over/under as a home dog

The Saints are 40% (2-3) (L14) against the spread

The Saints are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) against the spread at home

The Saints are 25% (1-3) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Saints are 0% (0-2) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Saints are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under

The Saints are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Saints are 75% (3-1) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Saints are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog

Patriots (Away)

The Patriots are 60% (3-2) against the spread

The Patriots are 100% (2-0) against the spread away

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) against the spread as an fav

The Patriots are 40% (2-3) to the over/under

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) to the over/under away

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) to the over/under as an fav

The Patriots are 60% (3-2) (L14) against the spread

The Patriots are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread away

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread as an fav

The Patriots are 40% (2-3) (L14) to the over/under

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under away

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under as an fav

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Home	Pts	Away	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/08/23	2023	Patriots	0	Saints	34	177	45	132	0	2	-2.0	38.5	+34	34
All Games Avg (1 games)			34.0	-	0.0	177	45	132	0.0	2.0	-2.0	38.5	+34.0	34.0

Schedules

Patriots Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Patriots	-	home	Browns	-	-	-	-	-	-	-5.5	42.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Patriots	-	away	Titans	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	44.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Patriots	-	away	Saints	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	46.0	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Patriots	23	away	Bills	20	344	71	273	1	2	+7.5	48.5	-3	43
09/28/25	2025	Patriots	42	home	Panthers	13	307	104	203	0	0	-5.5	42.5	-29	55
09/21/25	2025	Patriots	14	home	Steelers	21	387	119	268	1	4	+1.5	44.5	+7	35
09/14/25	2025	Patriots	33	away	Dolphins	27	352	122	230	1	1	+2.5	43.5	-6	60
09/07/25	2025	Patriots	13	home	Raiders	20	347	60	287	1	1	-2.5	44.5	+7	33
01/05/25	2024	Patriots	23	home	Bills	16	318	77	241	0	1	+3.0	36.5	-7	39
12/28/24	2024	Patriots	7	home	Chargers	40	211	96	115	0	1	+6.0	41.5	+33	47
12/22/24	2024	Patriots	21	away	Bills	24	387	126	261	1	4	+14.0	48.0	+3	45
12/15/24	2024	Patriots	17	away	Cardinals	30	318	116	202	0	3	+6.0	46.5	+13	47
12/01/24	2024	Patriots	24	home	Colts	25	438	200	238	2	2	+2.5	41.0	+1	49
Away Games Avg (4 games)			23.5	-	-	25.3	350	109	242	0.8	2.5	+7.5	46.6	+1.8	48.8
All Games Avg (10 games)			21.7	-	-	23.6	341	109	232	0.7	1.9	+3.5	43.7	+1.9	45.3

Saints Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Saints	-	home	Buccaneers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+5.5	45.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Saints	-	away	Bears	-	-	-	-	-	-	+7.5	44.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Saints	-	home	Patriots	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.5	46.0	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Saints	26	home	Giants	14	332	88	244	2	0	-2.5	41.5	-12	40
09/28/25	2025	Saints	19	away	Bills	31	315	189	126	1	1	+14.5	48.5	+12	50
09/21/25	2025	Saints	13	away	Seahawks	44	297	79	218	0	0	+7.5	41.5	+31	57
09/14/25	2025	Saints	21	home	Fortyniners	26	328	121	207	0	2	+3.0	40.5	+5	47
09/07/25	2025	Saints	13	home	Cardinals	20	321	107	214	0	0	+5.5	44.5	+7	33
01/05/25	2024	Saints	19	away	Buccaneers	27	304	64	240	1	0	+14.5	44.5	+8	46
12/29/24	2024	Saints	10	home	Raiders	25	299	81	218	0	2	+2.0	37.5	+15	35
12/23/24	2024	Saints	0	away	Packers	34	220	67	153	0	2	+14.5	44.0	+34	34
12/15/24	2024	Saints	19	home	Commanders	20	274	69	205	0	0	+7.5	44.5	+1	39
12/08/24	2024	Saints	14	away	Giants	11	311	92	219	1	2	-4.5	40.5	-3	25
Home Games Avg (5 games)			17.8	-	-	21.0	311	93	218	0.4	0.8	+3.1	41.7	+3.2	38.8
All Games Avg (10 games)			15.4	-	-	25.2	300	96	204	0.5	0.9	+6.2	42.8	+9.8	40.6

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Sun, 10/12, 1:00 p.m.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Browns: 1-4 (20.0%) - AFC North

Steelers: 3-1 (75.0%) - AFC North

Line: -5.5

Total: 38.5

Situational Systems

Browns

Basic Systems

Rest Disadvantage

Baller Systems

Fade home team whose next game is on Thursday

Steelers

Basic Systems

Extended rest: Off a bye week

Rest Advantage

Lookahead: next game is on Thursday (short 3-day rest)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Browns

53.28% probability

Total Recommendation

Under

55.00% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Receiving Performance	Lean Steelers	-	-
DVOA Advanced	Browns	-	-
Defensive Metrics	Browns	-	-
Drive Performance	Lean Steelers	-	-
DVOA ZScores	Lean Browns	-	-
Basic Stats	Steelers	-	-
Luck Regression	Lean Browns	-	-
ATS Analysis	Lean Browns	-	-
Cover Summary	Browns	No Bet	No Bet
Possession Efficiency	Lean Under	-	-
DVOA Regression	Lean Under	-	-
Comprehensive	Lean Under	-	-
Down Efficiency	Under	-	-
Game Conditions	Under	-	-
Total Summary	Under	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Browns \| Under

Notable Trends

The Steelers are 75% (3-1) to the over/under

The Steelers are 75% (3-1) (L14) to the over/under

View All Records

Steelers (Home)

The Steelers are 50% (2-2) against the spread

The Steelers are 0% (0-1) against the spread at home

The Steelers are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread as a fav

The Steelers are 0% (0-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Steelers are 75% (3-1) to the over/under

The Steelers are 100% (1-0) to the over/under at home

The Steelers are 66.7% (2-1) to the over/under as a fav

The Steelers are 100% (1-0) to the over/under as a home fav

The Steelers are 50% (2-2) (L14) against the spread

The Steelers are 0% (0-1) (L14) against the spread at home

The Steelers are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Steelers are 0% (0-1) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Steelers are 75% (3-1) (L14) to the over/under

The Steelers are 100% (1-0) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Steelers are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Steelers are 100% (1-0) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Browns (Away)

The Browns are 40% (2-3) against the spread

The Browns are 0% (0-2) against the spread away

The Browns are 40% (2-3) against the spread as an dog

The Browns are 0% (0-2) against the spread as an away dog

The Browns are 40% (2-3) to the over/under

The Browns are 50% (1-1) to the over/under away

The Browns are 40% (2-3) to the over/under as an dog

The Browns are 50% (1-1) to the over/under as an away dog

The Browns are 40% (2-3) (L14) against the spread

The Browns are 0% (0-2) (L14) against the spread away

The Browns are 40% (2-3) (L14) against the spread as an dog

The Browns are 0% (0-2) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Browns are 40% (2-3) (L14) to the over/under

The Browns are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under away

The Browns are 40% (2-3) (L14) to the over/under as an dog

The Browns are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Home	Pts	Away	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/08/24	2024	Steelers	27	Browns	14	278	120	158	2	1	-6.0	42.5	-13	41
11/21/24	2024	Browns	24	Steelers	19	304	85	219	0	3	+3.5	36.5	-5	43
11/19/23	2023	Browns	13	Steelers	10	261	96	165	0	0	-2.5	34.5	-3	23
09/18/23	2023	Steelers	26	Browns	22	277	55	222	1	1	+2.5	38.5	-4	48
01/08/23	2022	Steelers	28	Browns	14	339	144	195	2	3	-2.5	39.5	-14	42
09/22/22	2022	Browns	29	Steelers	17	391	171	220	0	0	-4.0	37.5	-12	46
Steelers as Home (3 games)			27.0	-	16.7	298	106	192	1.7	1.7	-2.0	40.2	-10.3	43.7
All Games Avg (6 games)			21.2	-	19.3	308	112	197	0.8	1.3	-1.5	38.2	-8.5	40.5

Schedules

Browns Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Browns	-	away	Patriots	-	-	-	-	-	-	+5.5	42.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Browns	-	home	Dolphins	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.5	43.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Browns	-	away	Steelers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+5.5	38.5	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Browns	17	neutral	Vikings	21	330	140	190	0	0	+3.5	35.5	+4	38
09/28/25	2025	Browns	10	away	Lions	34	263	79	184	1	2	+10.0	44.5	+24	44
09/21/25	2025	Browns	13	home	Packers	10	238	96	142	1	0	+7.5	40.5	-3	23
09/14/25	2025	Browns	17	away	Ravens	41	333	115	218	0	1	+12.5	46.5	+24	58
09/07/25	2025	Browns	16	home	Bengals	17	339	49	290	0	0	+4.5	47.5	+1	33
01/04/25	2024	Browns	10	away	Ravens	35	239	56	183	0	0	+19.5	42.5	+25	45
12/29/24	2024	Browns	3	home	Dolphins	20	284	114	170	0	1	+3.0	32.5	+17	23
12/22/24	2024	Browns	6	away	Bengals	24	305	148	157	0	2	+10.0	46.5	+18	30
12/15/24	2024	Browns	7	home	Chiefs	21	303	139	164	0	3	+4.5	41.5	+14	28
12/08/24	2024	Browns	14	away	Steelers	27	316	104	212	0	2	+6.0	42.5	+13	41
Away Games Avg (5 games)			11.4	-	-	32.2	291	100	191	0.2	1.4	+11.6	44.5	+20.8	43.6
All Games Avg (10 games)			11.3	-	-	25.0	295	104	191	0.2	1.1	+8.1	42.0	+13.7	36.3

Steelers Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Steelers	-	home	Packers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.5	44.5	-	-
10/16/25	2025	Steelers	-	away	Bengals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-4.0	42.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Steelers	-	home	Browns	-	-	-	-	-	-	-5.5	38.5	-	-
09/28/25	2025	Steelers	24	neutral	Vikings	21	331	131	200	2	1	+2.5	41.0	-3	45
09/21/25	2025	Steelers	21	away	Patriots	14	203	64	139	1	1	-1.5	44.5	-7	35
09/14/25	2025	Steelers	17	home	Seahawks	31	287	72	215	2	0	-3.5	40.5	+14	48
09/07/25	2025	Steelers	34	away	Jets	32	297	53	244	0	2	-3.0	38.0	-2	66
01/11/25	2024	Steelers	14	away	Ravens	28	299	29	270	0	0	+9.5	44.5	+14	42
01/04/25	2024	Steelers	17	home	Bengals	19	222	74	148	1	2	+2.5	48.5	+2	36
12/25/24	2024	Steelers	10	home	Chiefs	29	407	202	205	0	2	+2.0	46.0	+19	39
12/21/24	2024	Steelers	17	away	Ravens	34	334	117	217	1	2	+7.0	44.0	+17	51
12/15/24	2024	Steelers	13	away	Eagles	27	184	56	128	0	2	+5.5	43.0	+14	40
12/08/24	2024	Steelers	27	home	Browns	14	278	120	158	2	1	-6.0	42.5	-13	41
Home Games Avg (4 games)			17.8	-	-	23.3	299	117	182	1.3	1.3	-1.3	44.4	+5.5	41.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			19.4	-	-	24.9	284	92	192	0.9	1.3	+1.5	43.3	+5.5	44.3

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Sun, 10/12, 4:05 p.m.
Tennessee Titans @ Las Vegas Raiders

Titans: 1-4 (20.0%) - AFC South

Raiders: 1-4 (20.0%) - AFC West

Line: -4.5

Total: 41.5

Situational Systems

Titans

Basic Systems

Third consecutive road game

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems

Fade home favorites off a loss

Raiders

Basic Systems

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Baller Systems

Unders system based on the market total being substantially lower than average scoring

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Titans

55.63% probability

Total Recommendation

Under

57.50% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Receiving Performance	Lean Titans	-	-
DVOA Advanced	Titans	-	-
Defensive Metrics	Titans	-	-
Drive Performance	Titans	-	-
DVOA ZScores	Lean Titans	-	-
Basic Stats	Titans	-	-
Luck Regression	Lean Titans	-	-
ATS Analysis	Lean Titans	-	-
Cover Summary	Titans	No Bet	No Bet
Possession Efficiency	Under	-	-
DVOA Regression	Lean Under	-	-
Comprehensive	Under	-	-
Down Efficiency	Under	-	-
Game Conditions	Under	-	-
Total Summary	Under	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Titans \| Under

Notable Trends

The Raiders are 20% (1-4) against the spread

The Raiders are 20% (1-4) (L14) against the spread

View All Records

Raiders (Home)

The Raiders are 20% (1-4) against the spread

The Raiders are 0% (0-2) against the spread at home

The Raiders are 0% (0-1) against the spread as a fav

The Raiders are 0% (0-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Raiders are 40% (2-3) to the over/under

The Raiders are 50% (1-1) to the over/under at home

The Raiders are 100% (1-0) to the over/under as a fav

The Raiders are 100% (1-0) to the over/under as a home fav

The Raiders are 20% (1-4) (L14) against the spread

The Raiders are 0% (0-2) (L14) against the spread at home

The Raiders are 0% (0-1) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Raiders are 0% (0-1) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Raiders are 40% (2-3) (L14) to the over/under

The Raiders are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Raiders are 100% (1-0) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Raiders are 100% (1-0) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Titans (Away)

The Titans are 40% (2-3) against the spread

The Titans are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread away

The Titans are 40% (2-3) against the spread as an dog

The Titans are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Titans are 60% (3-2) to the over/under

The Titans are 33.3% (1-2) to the over/under away

The Titans are 60% (3-2) to the over/under as an dog

The Titans are 33.3% (1-2) to the over/under as an away dog

The Titans are 40% (2-3) (L14) against the spread

The Titans are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Titans are 40% (2-3) (L14) against the spread as an dog

The Titans are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Titans are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under

The Titans are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) to the over/under away

The Titans are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under as an dog

The Titans are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Home	Pts	Away	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/25/22	2022	Titans	24	Raiders	22	373	109	264	1	1	+2.0	45.5	-2	46
All Games Avg (1 games)			22.0	-	24.0	373	109	264	1.0	1.0	+2.0	45.5	-2.0	46.0

Schedules

Titans Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Titans	-	away	Colts	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.5	44.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Titans	-	home	Patriots	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.5	44.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Titans	-	away	Raiders	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.5	41.5	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Titans	22	away	Cardinals	21	343	78	265	0	1	+7.5	41.5	-1	43
09/28/25	2025	Titans	0	away	Texans	26	190	82	108	0	0	+7.5	39.5	+26	26
09/21/25	2025	Titans	20	home	Colts	41	305	86	219	0	0	+6.0	42.5	+21	61
09/14/25	2025	Titans	19	home	Rams	33	284	109	175	1	1	+5.5	41.5	+14	52
09/07/25	2025	Titans	12	away	Broncos	20	183	71	112	2	2	+8.5	42.5	+8	32
01/05/25	2024	Titans	14	home	Texans	23	330	85	245	0	2	-2.5	36.5	+9	37
12/29/24	2024	Titans	13	away	Jaguars	20	352	159	193	0	2	-1.0	38.5	+7	33
12/22/24	2024	Titans	30	away	Colts	38	317	65	252	1	0	+4.0	43.0	+8	68
12/15/24	2024	Titans	27	home	Bengals	37	381	83	298	2	2	+6.0	46.5	+10	64
12/08/24	2024	Titans	6	home	Jaguars	10	294	126	168	2	1	-3.0	40.0	+4	16
Away Games Avg (5 games)			15.4	-	-	25.0	277	91	186	0.6	1.0	+5.3	41.0	+9.6	40.4
All Games Avg (10 games)			16.3	-	-	26.9	298	94	204	0.8	1.1	+3.9	41.2	+10.6	43.2

Raiders Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/02/25	2025	Raiders	-	home	Jaguars	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.5	45.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Raiders	-	away	Chiefs	-	-	-	-	-	-	+9.5	45.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Raiders	-	home	Titans	-	-	-	-	-	-	-4.5	41.5	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Raiders	6	away	Colts	40	334	106	228	0	0	+7.5	46.5	+34	46
09/28/25	2025	Raiders	24	home	Bears	25	357	240	117	1	1	-1.5	47.5	+1	49
09/21/25	2025	Raiders	24	away	Commanders	41	382	93	289	0	0	+3.0	43.5	+17	65
09/15/25	2025	Raiders	9	home	Chargers	20	248	68	180	0	1	+3.5	46.5	+11	29
09/07/25	2025	Raiders	20	away	Patriots	13	418	56	362	1	0	+2.5	44.5	-7	33
01/05/25	2024	Raiders	20	home	Chargers	34	264	39	225	0	0	+7.0	42.5	+14	54
12/29/24	2024	Raiders	25	away	Saints	10	398	156	242	2	0	-2.0	37.5	-15	35
12/22/24	2024	Raiders	19	home	Jaguars	14	326	69	257	0	0	-2.0	42.0	-5	33
12/16/24	2024	Raiders	9	home	Falcons	15	273	65	208	1	1	+6.5	44.5	+6	24
12/08/24	2024	Raiders	13	away	Buccaneers	28	296	91	205	2	2	+7.0	47.0	+15	41
Home Games Avg (5 games)			16.2	-	-	21.6	294	96	197	0.4	0.6	+2.7	44.6	+5.4	37.8
All Games Avg (10 games)			16.9	-	-	24.0	330	98	231	0.7	0.5	+3.2	44.2	+7.1	40.9

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Sun, 10/12, 4:25 p.m.
San Francisco Fortyniners @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fortyniners: 4-1 (80.0%) - NFC West

Buccaneers: 4-1 (80.0%) - NFC South

Line: -3.0

Total: 47.5

Situational Systems

Fortyniners

Basic Systems

Extended rest: Non-bye week

Rest Advantage

West Coast team traveling East

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Coming off an Overtime game

Baller Systems

Back early season short, road underdogs who won last matchup

Buccaneers

Basic Systems

Rest Disadvantage

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Fortyniners

54.84% probability

Total Recommendation

Under

53.75% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Receiving Performance	Lean Buccaneers	-	-
DVOA Advanced	Lean Fortyniners	-	-
Defensive Metrics	Fortyniners	-	-
Drive Performance	Fortyniners	-	-
DVOA ZScores	Lean Fortyniners	-	-
Basic Stats	Fortyniners	-	-
Luck Regression	Lean Fortyniners	-	-
ATS Analysis	Lean Fortyniners	-	-
Cover Summary	Fortyniners	No Bet	No Bet
Possession Efficiency	Lean Under	-	-
DVOA Regression	Lean Under	-	-
Comprehensive	Under	-	-
Down Efficiency	Under	-	-
Game Conditions	Over	-	-
Total Summary	Under	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Fortyniners \| Under

Notable Trends

No notable trends identified for this matchup.

View All Records

Buccaneers (Home)

The Buccaneers are 60% (3-2) against the spread

The Buccaneers are 0% (0-2) against the spread at home

The Buccaneers are 50% (1-1) against the spread as a fav

The Buccaneers are 0% (0-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Buccaneers are 60% (3-2) to the over/under

The Buccaneers are 100% (2-0) to the over/under at home

The Buccaneers are 50% (1-1) to the over/under as a fav

The Buccaneers are 100% (1-0) to the over/under as a home fav

The Buccaneers are 60% (3-2) (L14) against the spread

The Buccaneers are 0% (0-2) (L14) against the spread at home

The Buccaneers are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Buccaneers are 0% (0-1) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Buccaneers are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under

The Buccaneers are 100% (2-0) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Buccaneers are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Buccaneers are 100% (1-0) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Fortyniners (Away)

The Fortyniners are 60% (3-2) against the spread

The Fortyniners are 100% (3-0) against the spread away

The Fortyniners are 100% (1-0) against the spread as an dog

The Fortyniners are 100% (1-0) against the spread as an away dog

The Fortyniners are 60% (3-2) to the over/under

The Fortyniners are 66.7% (2-1) to the over/under away

The Fortyniners are 100% (1-0) to the over/under as an dog

The Fortyniners are 100% (1-0) to the over/under as an away dog

The Fortyniners are 60% (3-2) (L14) against the spread

The Fortyniners are 100% (3-0) (L14) against the spread away

The Fortyniners are 100% (1-0) (L14) against the spread as an dog

The Fortyniners are 100% (1-0) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Fortyniners are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under

The Fortyniners are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) to the over/under away

The Fortyniners are 100% (1-0) (L14) to the over/under as an dog

The Fortyniners are 100% (1-0) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Home	Pts	Away	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/10/24	2024	Buccaneers	20	Fortyniners	23	226	110	116	0	3	+6.5	50.5	+3	43
11/19/23	2023	Fortyniners	27	Buccaneers	14	448	115	333	1	0	-13.5	42.0	-13	41
12/11/22	2022	Fortyniners	35	Buccaneers	7	404	209	195	2	1	-3.5	38.5	-28	42
Buccaneers as Home (1 games)			20.0	-	23.0	226	110	116	0.0	3.0	+6.5	50.5	+3.0	43.0
All Games Avg (3 games)			13.7	-	28.3	359	145	215	1.0	1.3	-3.5	43.7	-12.7	42.0

Schedules

Fortyniners Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Fortyniners	-	away	Texans	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.5	45.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Fortyniners	-	home	Falcons	-	-	-	-	-	-	-6.0	47.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Fortyniners	-	away	Buccaneers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	47.5	-	-
10/02/25	2025	Fortyniners	26	away	Rams	23	416	74	342	0	0	+7.5	43.5	-3	49
09/28/25	2025	Fortyniners	21	home	Jaguars	26	392	83	309	0	3	-3.5	45.5	+5	47
09/21/25	2025	Fortyniners	16	home	Cardinals	15	357	73	284	0	0	-1.5	44.5	-1	31
09/14/25	2025	Fortyniners	26	away	Saints	21	356	77	279	0	2	-3.0	40.5	-5	47
09/07/25	2025	Fortyniners	17	away	Seahawks	13	396	119	277	0	1	-2.5	43.5	-4	30
01/05/25	2024	Fortyniners	24	away	Cardinals	47	464	138	326	0	3	+5.5	43.5	+23	71
12/30/24	2024	Fortyniners	34	home	Lions	40	487	75	412	0	2	+4.0	50.5	+6	74
12/22/24	2024	Fortyniners	17	away	Dolphins	29	394	81	313	0	0	-2.0	44.0	+12	46
12/12/24	2024	Fortyniners	6	home	Rams	12	205	63	142	0	0	-3.0	48.5	+6	18
12/08/24	2024	Fortyniners	38	home	Bears	13	456	131	325	0	0	-3.0	43.5	-25	51
Away Games Avg (5 games)			22.0	-	-	26.6	405	98	307	0.0	1.2	+1.1	43.0	+4.6	48.6
All Games Avg (10 games)			22.5	-	-	23.9	392	91	301	0.0	1.1	-0.2	44.8	+1.4	46.4

Buccaneers Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Buccaneers	-	away	Saints	-	-	-	-	-	-	-5.5	45.5	-	-
10/20/25	2025	Buccaneers	-	away	Lions	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.0	50.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Buccaneers	-	home	Fortyniners	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.0	47.5	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Buccaneers	38	away	Seahawks	35	435	56	379	1	0	+3.5	44.5	-3	73
09/28/25	2025	Buccaneers	25	home	Eagles	31	393	104	289	0	2	+3.5	44.5	+6	56
09/21/25	2025	Buccaneers	29	home	Jets	27	355	122	233	1	1	-6.5	43.5	-2	56
09/15/25	2025	Buccaneers	20	away	Texans	19	384	169	215	0	1	+2.5	42.5	-1	39
09/07/25	2025	Buccaneers	23	away	Falcons	20	268	101	167	0	0	-1.5	47.5	-3	43
01/12/25	2024	Buccaneers	20	home	Commanders	23	286	101	185	0	1	-3.0	51.5	+3	43
01/05/25	2024	Buccaneers	27	home	Saints	19	400	179	221	0	1	-14.5	44.5	-8	46
12/29/24	2024	Buccaneers	48	home	Panthers	14	561	202	359	0	0	-9.5	47.5	-34	62
12/22/24	2024	Buccaneers	24	away	Cowboys	26	437	134	303	0	3	-6.0	49.0	+2	50
12/15/24	2024	Buccaneers	40	away	Chargers	17	511	223	288	1	1	+3.0	46.0	-23	57
Home Games Avg (5 games)			29.8	-	-	22.8	399	142	257	0.2	1.0	-6.0	46.3	-7.0	52.6
All Games Avg (10 games)			29.4	-	-	23.1	403	139	264	0.3	1.0	-2.9	46.1	-6.3	52.5

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Sun, 10/12, 4:25 p.m.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers

Bengals: 2-3 (40.0%) - AFC North

Packers: 2-1 (66.7%) - NFC North

Line: -14.5

Total: 44.5

Situational Systems

Bengals

Basic Systems

Lookahead: next game is on Thursday (short 3-day rest)

Rest Disadvantage

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Packers

Basic Systems

Extended rest: Off a bye week

Rest Advantage

First game home off 2+ game road trip

Coming off an Overtime game

Baller Systems

Unders system based on the market total being substantially lower than average scoring

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Bengals

58.75% probability

Total Recommendation

Under

56.25% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Receiving Performance	Lean Packers	-	-
DVOA Advanced	Bengals	-	-
Defensive Metrics	Bengals	-	-
Drive Performance	Bengals	-	-
DVOA ZScores	Bengals (2x)	-	-
Basic Stats	Bengals	-	-
Luck Regression	Lean Bengals	-	-
ATS Analysis	Bengals (2x)	-	-
Cover Summary	Bengals	No Bet	No Bet
Possession Efficiency	Under	-	-
DVOA Regression	Lean Under	-	-
Comprehensive	Under	-	-
Down Efficiency	Lean Under	-	-
Game Conditions	Under	-	-
Total Summary	Under	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Bengals \| Under

Notable Trends

The Packers are 25% (1-3) to the over/under

The Packers are 25% (1-3) to the over/under as a fav

The Packers are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under

The Packers are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Bengals are 20% (1-4) against the spread

The Bengals are 20% (1-4) (L14) against the spread

View All Records

Packers (Home)

The Packers are 50% (2-2) against the spread

The Packers are 100% (2-0) against the spread at home

The Packers are 50% (2-2) against the spread as a fav

The Packers are 100% (2-0) against the spread as a home fav

The Packers are 25% (1-3) to the over/under

The Packers are 0% (0-2) to the over/under at home

The Packers are 25% (1-3) to the over/under as a fav

The Packers are 0% (0-2) to the over/under as a home fav

The Packers are 50% (2-2) (L14) against the spread

The Packers are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread at home

The Packers are 50% (2-2) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Packers are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Packers are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under

The Packers are 0% (0-2) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Packers are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Packers are 0% (0-2) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Bengals (Away)

The Bengals are 20% (1-4) against the spread

The Bengals are 0% (0-3) against the spread away

The Bengals are 0% (0-3) against the spread as an dog

The Bengals are 0% (0-2) against the spread as an away dog

The Bengals are 60% (3-2) to the over/under

The Bengals are 33.3% (1-2) to the over/under away

The Bengals are 66.7% (2-1) to the over/under as an dog

The Bengals are 50% (1-1) to the over/under as an away dog

The Bengals are 20% (1-4) (L14) against the spread

The Bengals are 0% (0-3) (L14) against the spread away

The Bengals are 0% (0-3) (L14) against the spread as an dog

The Bengals are 0% (0-2) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Bengals are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under

The Bengals are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) to the over/under away

The Bengals are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) to the over/under as an dog

The Bengals are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

No previous matchups between these teams in the last 3 seasons.

Schedules

Bengals Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Bengals	-	home	Jets	-	-	-	-	-	-	-8.0	45.5	-	-
10/16/25	2025	Bengals	-	home	Steelers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.0	42.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Bengals	-	away	Packers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+14.5	44.5	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Bengals	24	home	Lions	37	336	85	251	0	2	+10.0	49.5	+13	61
09/29/25	2025	Bengals	3	away	Broncos	28	178	53	125	1	0	+7.5	44.5	+25	31
09/21/25	2025	Bengals	10	away	Vikings	48	193	53	140	0	5	+3.0	42.5	+38	58
09/14/25	2025	Bengals	31	home	Jaguars	27	365	48	317	2	0	-3.5	49.5	-4	58
09/07/25	2025	Bengals	17	away	Browns	16	159	46	113	2	0	-4.5	47.5	-1	33
01/04/25	2024	Bengals	19	away	Steelers	17	345	68	277	0	3	-2.5	48.5	-2	36
12/28/24	2024	Bengals	30	home	Broncos	24	527	115	412	1	1	-3.5	50.5	-6	54
12/22/24	2024	Bengals	24	home	Browns	6	368	116	252	2	1	-10.0	46.5	-18	30
12/15/24	2024	Bengals	37	away	Titans	27	372	101	271	4	2	-6.0	46.5	-10	64
12/09/24	2024	Bengals	27	away	Cowboys	20	443	74	369	1	1	-4.5	51.0	-7	47
Away Games Avg (6 games)			18.8	-	-	26.0	282	66	216	1.3	1.8	-1.2	46.8	+7.2	44.8
All Games Avg (10 games)			22.2	-	-	25.0	329	76	253	1.3	1.5	-1.4	47.7	+2.8	47.2

Packers Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Packers	-	away	Steelers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.5	44.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Packers	-	away	Cardinals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.5	47.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Packers	-	home	Bengals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-14.5	44.5	-	-
09/28/25	2025	Packers	40	away	Cowboys	40	501	164	337	0	1	-6.5	47.0	0	80
09/21/25	2025	Packers	10	away	Browns	13	264	81	183	1	1	-7.5	40.5	+3	23
09/11/25	2025	Packers	27	home	Commanders	18	719	135	584	0	0	-3.0	48.5	-9	45
09/07/25	2025	Packers	27	home	Lions	13	266	78	188	1	0	-1.5	48.0	-14	40
01/12/25	2024	Packers	10	away	Eagles	22	319	107	212	0	3	+5.5	46.5	+12	32
01/05/25	2024	Packers	22	home	Bears	24	388	183	205	1	4	-10.0	41.5	+2	46
12/29/24	2024	Packers	25	away	Vikings	27	289	104	185	1	2	-1.0	49.5	+2	52
12/23/24	2024	Packers	34	home	Saints	0	404	188	216	1	0	-14.5	44.0	-34	34
12/15/24	2024	Packers	30	away	Seahawks	13	369	140	229	2	2	-3.0	48.5	-17	43
12/05/24	2024	Packers	31	away	Lions	34	305	99	206	1	1	+3.0	53.0	+3	65
Home Games Avg (4 games)			27.5	-	-	13.8	444	146	298	0.8	1.0	-7.3	45.5	-13.8	41.3
All Games Avg (10 games)			25.6	-	-	20.4	382	128	255	0.8	1.4	-3.9	46.7	-5.2	46.0

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Sun, 10/12, 8:20 p.m.
Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs

Lions: 4-1 (80.0%) - NFC North

Chiefs: 2-3 (40.0%) - AFC West

Line: -2.5

Total: 52.5

Situational Systems

Lions

Basic Systems

Rest Advantage

Baller Systems

Unders system: based on team with consecutive road games and a higher than average total

Fade home favorites off a loss

Back early season short, road underdogs who won last matchup

Chiefs

Basic Systems

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Short rest: 4 or 5 days

Rest Disadvantage

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Chiefs

53.28% probability

Total Recommendation

Under

57.50% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Receiving Performance	Lean Chiefs	-	-
DVOA Advanced	Chiefs	-	-
Defensive Metrics	Lean Lions	-	-
Drive Performance	Lions	-	-
DVOA ZScores	Lean Chiefs	-	-
Basic Stats	Lions	-	-
Luck Regression	Lean Chiefs	-	-
ATS Analysis	Chiefs (2x)	-	-
Cover Summary	Chiefs	No Bet	No Bet
Possession Efficiency	Under	-	-
DVOA Regression	Lean Under	-	-
Comprehensive	Under	-	-
Down Efficiency	Under	-	-
Game Conditions	Under	-	-
Total Summary	Under	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Chiefs \| Under

Notable Trends

The Lions are 80% (4-1) against the spread

The Lions are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread

View All Records

Chiefs (Home)

The Chiefs are 40% (2-3) against the spread

The Chiefs are 50% (1-1) against the spread at home

The Chiefs are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread as a fav

The Chiefs are 60% (3-2) to the over/under

The Chiefs are 50% (1-1) to the over/under at home

The Chiefs are 66.7% (2-1) to the over/under as a fav

The Chiefs are 40% (2-3) (L14) against the spread

The Chiefs are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread at home

The Chiefs are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Chiefs are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under

The Chiefs are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Chiefs are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

Lions (Away)

The Lions are 80% (4-1) against the spread

The Lions are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread away

The Lions are 50% (1-1) against the spread as an dog

The Lions are 50% (1-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Lions are 60% (3-2) to the over/under

The Lions are 66.7% (2-1) to the over/under away

The Lions are 50% (1-1) to the over/under as an dog

The Lions are 50% (1-1) to the over/under as an away dog

The Lions are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread

The Lions are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Lions are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread as an dog

The Lions are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Lions are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under

The Lions are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) to the over/under away

The Lions are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under as an dog

The Lions are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Home	Pts	Away	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/07/23	2023	Chiefs	20	Lions	21	316	90	226	0	0	-4.0	53.0	+1	41
Chiefs as Home (1 games)			20.0	-	21.0	316	90	226	0.0	0.0	-4.0	53.0	+1.0	41.0
All Games Avg (1 games)			20.0	-	21.0	316	90	226	0.0	0.0	-4.0	53.0	+1.0	41.0

Schedules

Lions Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/02/25	2025	Lions	-	home	Vikings	-	-	-	-	-	-	-4.5	47.5	-	-
10/20/25	2025	Lions	-	home	Buccaneers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-4.0	50.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Lions	-	away	Chiefs	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.5	52.5	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Lions	37	away	Bengals	24	379	118	261	3	1	-10.0	49.5	-13	61
09/28/25	2025	Lions	34	home	Browns	10	277	109	168	2	0	-10.0	44.5	-24	44
09/22/25	2025	Lions	38	away	Ravens	30	426	224	202	0	1	+4.5	53.5	-8	68
09/14/25	2025	Lions	52	home	Bears	21	511	177	334	1	0	-6.5	46.5	-31	73
09/07/25	2025	Lions	13	away	Packers	27	271	46	225	0	0	+1.5	48.0	+14	40
01/18/25	2024	Lions	31	home	Commanders	45	537	201	336	0	1	-8.5	55.5	+14	76
01/05/25	2024	Lions	31	home	Vikings	9	409	178	231	0	0	-3.0	56.5	-22	40
12/30/24	2024	Lions	40	away	Fortyniners	34	455	152	303	2	0	-4.0	50.5	-6	74
12/22/24	2024	Lions	34	away	Bears	17	482	146	336	0	0	-7.0	47.5	-17	51
12/15/24	2024	Lions	42	home	Bills	48	542	48	494	0	2	-2.5	55.5	+6	90
Away Games Avg (5 games)			32.4	-	-	26.4	403	137	265	1.0	0.4	-3.0	49.8	-6.0	58.8
All Games Avg (10 games)			35.2	-	-	26.5	429	140	289	0.8	0.5	-4.6	50.8	-8.7	61.7

Chiefs Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/27/25	2025	Chiefs	-	home	Commanders	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.0	48.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Chiefs	-	home	Raiders	-	-	-	-	-	-	-9.5	45.5	-	-
10/12/25	2025	Chiefs	-	home	Lions	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	52.5	-	-
10/06/25	2025	Chiefs	28	away	Jaguars	31	476	158	318	1	0	-3.5	45.5	+3	59
09/28/25	2025	Chiefs	37	home	Ravens	20	388	118	270	1	0	+2.5	48.5	-17	57
09/21/25	2025	Chiefs	22	away	Giants	9	329	105	224	2	2	-6.0	44.5	-13	31
09/14/25	2025	Chiefs	17	home	Eagles	20	308	121	187	0	1	+1.5	46.5	+3	37
09/05/25	2025	Chiefs	21	neutral	Chargers	27	356	98	258	0	1	-3.0	47.5	+6	48
02/09/25	2024	Chiefs	22	neutral	Eagles	40	306	49	257	1	2	-1.5	48.5	+18	62
01/26/25	2024	Chiefs	32	home	Bills	29	380	135	245	0	1	-1.5	49.5	-3	61
01/18/25	2024	Chiefs	23	home	Texans	14	227	50	177	0	2	-9.5	41.5	-9	37
01/05/25	2024	Chiefs	0	away	Broncos	38	125	27	98	0	2	+10.5	40.5	+38	38
12/25/24	2024	Chiefs	29	away	Steelers	10	389	69	320	1	1	-2.0	46.0	-19	39
Home Games Avg (4 games)			27.3	-	-	20.8	326	106	220	0.3	1.0	-1.8	46.5	-6.5	48.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			23.1	-	-	23.8	328	93	235	0.6	1.2	-1.3	45.9	+0.7	46.9

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Mon, 10/13, 7:15 p.m.
Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons

Bills: 4-1 (80.0%) - AFC East

Falcons: 2-2 (50.0%) - NFC South

Line: +4.0

Total: 49.5

Situational Systems

Bills

Basic Systems

Extended rest: Non-bye week

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Rest Disadvantage

Lookahead to bye week

Baller Systems

Back road favorite off a loss as a home favorite

Back favorite off a game as a fav w/ low turnovers

Falcons

Basic Systems

Extended rest: Off a bye week

Rest Advantage

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

No Play

Total Recommendation

Under

57.50% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Receiving Performance	Lean Falcons	-	-
DVOA Advanced	Lean Falcons	-	-
Defensive Metrics	Lean Bills	-	-
Drive Performance	Lean Bills	-	-
DVOA ZScores	Lean Bills	-	-
Basic Stats	Lean Bills	-	-
Luck Regression	Lean Bills	-	-
ATS Analysis	Lean Bills	-	-
Cover Summary	No Bet	No Bet	No Bet
Possession Efficiency	Under	-	-
DVOA Regression	Lean Under	-	-
Comprehensive	Under	-	-
Down Efficiency	Under	-	-
Game Conditions	Under	-	-
Total Summary	Under	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| Under

Notable Trends

The Falcons are 25% (1-3) to the over/under

The Falcons are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under

The Bills are 25% (1-3) against the spread as an fav

The Bills are 25% (1-3) (L14) against the spread as an fav

View All Records

Falcons (Home)

The Falcons are 50% (2-2) against the spread

The Falcons are 50% (1-1) against the spread at home

The Falcons are 50% (1-1) against the spread as a dog

The Falcons are 0% (0-1) against the spread as a home dog

The Falcons are 25% (1-3) to the over/under

The Falcons are 50% (1-1) to the over/under at home

The Falcons are 0% (0-2) to the over/under as a dog

The Falcons are 0% (0-1) to the over/under as a home dog

The Falcons are 50% (2-2) (L14) against the spread

The Falcons are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread at home

The Falcons are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Falcons are 0% (0-1) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Falcons are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under

The Falcons are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Falcons are 0% (0-2) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Falcons are 0% (0-1) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog

Bills (Away)

The Bills are 40% (2-3) against the spread

The Bills are 100% (1-0) against the spread away

The Bills are 25% (1-3) against the spread as an fav

The Bills are 100% (1-0) against the spread as an away fav

The Bills are 60% (3-2) to the over/under

The Bills are 0% (0-1) to the over/under away

The Bills are 50% (2-2) to the over/under as an fav

The Bills are 0% (0-1) to the over/under as an away fav

The Bills are 40% (2-3) (L14) against the spread

The Bills are 100% (1-0) (L14) against the spread away

The Bills are 25% (1-3) (L14) against the spread as an fav

The Bills are 100% (1-0) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Bills are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under

The Bills are 0% (0-1) (L14) to the over/under away

The Bills are 50% (2-2) (L14) to the over/under as an fav

The Bills are 0% (0-1) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

No previous matchups between these teams in the last 3 seasons.

Schedules

Bills Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/02/25	2025	Bills	-	home	Chiefs	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	48.5	-	-
10/26/25	2025	Bills	-	away	Panthers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.0	48.5	-	-
10/13/25	2025	Bills	-	away	Falcons	-	-	-	-	-	-	-4.0	49.5	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Bills	20	home	Patriots	23	371	118	253	0	2	-7.5	48.5	+3	43
09/28/25	2025	Bills	31	home	Saints	19	374	165	209	1	0	-14.5	48.5	-12	50
09/18/25	2025	Bills	31	home	Dolphins	21	370	157	213	1	2	-11.5	50.5	-10	52
09/14/25	2025	Bills	30	away	Jets	10	404	224	180	0	1	-6.0	47.5	-20	40
09/07/25	2025	Bills	41	home	Ravens	40	502	108	394	0	1	+1.5	51.5	-1	81
01/26/25	2024	Bills	29	away	Chiefs	32	384	147	237	0	4	+1.5	49.5	+3	61
01/19/25	2024	Bills	27	home	Ravens	25	274	147	127	1	0	+1.5	51.5	-2	52
01/12/25	2024	Bills	31	home	Broncos	7	482	210	272	0	0	-7.5	49.5	-24	38
01/05/25	2024	Bills	16	away	Patriots	23	259	130	129	0	1	-3.0	36.5	+7	39
12/29/24	2024	Bills	40	home	Jets	14	348	97	251	2	0	-10.0	44.0	-26	54
Away Games Avg (3 games)			25.0	-	-	21.7	349	167	182	0.0	2.0	-2.5	44.5	-3.3	46.7
All Games Avg (10 games)			29.6	-	-	21.4	377	150	227	0.5	1.1	-5.6	47.8	-8.2	51.0

Falcons Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Falcons	-	home	Dolphins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.5	46.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Falcons	-	away	Fortyniners	-	-	-	-	-	-	+6.0	47.5	-	-
10/13/25	2025	Falcons	-	home	Bills	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.0	49.5	-	-
09/28/25	2025	Falcons	34	home	Commanders	27	441	128	313	1	2	-2.5	43.5	-7	61
09/21/25	2025	Falcons	0	away	Panthers	30	332	131	201	0	1	-4.5	44.0	+30	30
09/14/25	2025	Falcons	22	away	Vikings	6	353	218	135	2	1	+3.5	44.5	-16	28
09/07/25	2025	Falcons	20	home	Buccaneers	23	367	69	298	0	1	+1.5	47.5	+3	43
01/05/25	2024	Falcons	38	home	Panthers	44	539	227	312	0	0	-7.5	48.5	+6	82
12/29/24	2024	Falcons	24	away	Commanders	30	349	126	223	1	3	+3.5	46.5	+6	54
12/22/24	2024	Falcons	34	home	Giants	7	329	127	202	2	0	-9.5	43.0	-27	41
12/16/24	2024	Falcons	15	away	Raiders	9	280	168	112	2	1	-6.5	44.5	-6	24
12/08/24	2024	Falcons	21	away	Vikings	42	502	158	344	0	1	+6.0	46.5	+21	63
12/01/24	2024	Falcons	13	home	Chargers	17	361	116	245	0	1	+1.0	47.0	+4	30
Home Games Avg (5 games)			27.8	-	-	23.6	407	133	274	0.6	0.8	-3.4	45.9	-4.2	51.4
All Games Avg (10 games)			22.1	-	-	23.5	385	147	239	0.8	1.1	-1.5	45.6	+1.4	45.6

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Mon, 10/13, 8:15 p.m.
Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders

Bears: 2-2 (50.0%) - NFC North

Commanders: 3-2 (60.0%) - NFC East

Line: -4.5

Total: 49.5

Situational Systems

Bears

Basic Systems

Extended rest: Off a bye week

Rest Advantage

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems

Unders system: based on team with consecutive road games and a higher than average total

Commanders

Basic Systems

Extended rest: Non-bye week

Rest Disadvantage

First game home off 2+ game road trip

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Bears

57.19% probability

Total Recommendation

Under

56.25% probability

View All Algorithms

Notable Trends

The Bears are 75% (3-1) to the over/under

The Bears are 75% (3-1) (L14) to the over/under

View All Records

Commanders (Home)

The Commanders are 60% (3-2) against the spread

The Commanders are 100% (2-0) against the spread at home

The Commanders are 100% (2-0) against the spread as a fav

The Commanders are 100% (2-0) against the spread as a home fav

The Commanders are 40% (2-3) to the over/under

The Commanders are 50% (1-1) to the over/under at home

The Commanders are 50% (1-1) to the over/under as a fav

The Commanders are 50% (1-1) to the over/under as a home fav

The Commanders are 60% (3-2) (L14) against the spread

The Commanders are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread at home

The Commanders are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Commanders are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Commanders are 40% (2-3) (L14) to the over/under

The Commanders are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Commanders are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Commanders are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Bears (Away)

The Bears are 50% (2-2) against the spread

The Bears are 50% (1-1) against the spread away

The Bears are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread as an dog

The Bears are 50% (1-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Bears are 75% (3-1) to the over/under

The Bears are 100% (2-0) to the over/under away

The Bears are 66.7% (2-1) to the over/under as an dog

The Bears are 100% (2-0) to the over/under as an away dog

The Bears are 50% (2-2) (L14) against the spread

The Bears are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Bears are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) against the spread as an dog

The Bears are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Bears are 75% (3-1) (L14) to the over/under

The Bears are 100% (2-0) (L14) to the over/under away

The Bears are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) to the over/under as an dog

The Bears are 100% (2-0) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Home	Pts	Away	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/27/24	2024	Commanders	18	Bears	15	494	168	326	0	1	-1.5	46.5	-3	33
10/05/23	2023	Commanders	20	Bears	40	417	29	388	0	1	-6.0	45.5	+20	60
10/13/22	2022	Bears	7	Commanders	12	427	237	190	0	2	+1.5	38.5	+5	19
Commanders as Home (2 games)			19.0	-	27.5	456	99	357	0.0	1.0	-3.8	46.0	+8.5	46.5
All Games Avg (3 games)			16.7	-	20.7	446	145	301	0.0	1.3	-2.0	43.5	+7.3	37.3

Schedules

Bears Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25	2025	Bears	-	away	Ravens	-	-	-	-	-	-	+6.5	50.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Bears	-	home	Saints	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.5	44.5	-	-
10/13/25	2025	Bears	-	away	Commanders	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.5	49.5	-	-
09/28/25	2025	Bears	25	away	Raiders	24	281	69	212	3	2	+1.5	47.5	-1	49
09/21/25	2025	Bears	31	home	Cowboys	14	385	87	298	3	0	+1.5	50.5	-17	45
09/14/25	2025	Bears	21	away	Lions	52	368	134	234	0	2	+6.5	46.5	+31	73
09/08/25	2025	Bears	24	home	Vikings	27	329	119	210	1	1	-1.0	43.5	+3	51
01/05/25	2024	Bears	24	away	Packers	22	231	83	148	0	2	+10.0	41.5	-2	46
12/26/24	2024	Bears	3	home	Seahawks	6	225	103	122	0	2	+4.5	43.0	+3	9
12/22/24	2024	Bears	17	home	Lions	34	393	59	334	0	3	+7.0	47.5	+17	51
12/16/24	2024	Bears	12	away	Vikings	30	309	113	196	1	1	+7.0	44.0	+18	42
12/08/24	2024	Bears	13	away	Fortyniners	38	208	68	140	1	1	+3.0	43.5	+25	51
11/28/24	2024	Bears	20	away	Lions	23	334	78	256	0	0	+9.5	47.5	+3	43
Away Games Avg (6 games)			19.2	-	-	31.5	289	91	198	0.8	1.3	+6.3	45.1	+12.3	50.7
All Games Avg (10 games)			19.0	-	-	27.0	306	91	215	0.9	1.4	+5.0	45.5	+8.0	46.0

Commanders Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/27/25	2025	Commanders	-	away	Chiefs	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	48.5	-	-
10/19/25	2025	Commanders	-	away	Cowboys	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	48.5	-	-
10/13/25	2025	Commanders	-	home	Bears	-	-	-	-	-	-	-4.5	49.5	-	-
10/05/25	2025	Commanders	27	away	Chargers	10	394	163	231	1	1	+3.0	48.5	-17	37
09/28/25	2025	Commanders	27	away	Falcons	34	303	147	156	1	4	+2.5	43.5	+7	61
09/21/25	2025	Commanders	41	home	Raiders	24	408	201	207	0	1	-3.0	43.5	-17	65
09/11/25	2025	Commanders	18	away	Packers	27	451	51	400	0	0	+3.0	48.5	+9	45
09/07/25	2025	Commanders	21	home	Giants	6	453	220	233	0	0	-6.5	45.5	-15	27
01/26/25	2024	Commanders	23	away	Eagles	55	377	99	278	0	3	+6.0	46.5	+32	78
01/18/25	2024	Commanders	45	away	Lions	31	481	182	299	4	1	+8.5	55.5	-14	76
01/12/25	2024	Commanders	23	away	Buccaneers	20	350	82	268	0	0	+3.0	51.5	-3	43
01/05/25	2024	Commanders	23	away	Cowboys	19	312	113	199	0	1	-7.0	43.5	-4	42
12/29/24	2024	Commanders	30	home	Falcons	24	443	216	227	1	1	-3.5	46.5	-6	54
Home Games Avg (3 games)			30.7	-	-	18.0	435	212	222	0.3	0.7	-4.3	45.2	-12.7	48.7
All Games Avg (10 games)			27.8	-	-	25.0	397	147	250	0.7	1.2	+0.6	47.3	-2.8	52.8

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Receiving Performance	Lean Bears	-	-
DVOA Advanced	Bears	-	-
Defensive Metrics	Bears	-	-
Drive Performance	Bears	-	-
DVOA ZScores	Bears (2x)	-	-
Basic Stats	Bears	-	-
Luck Regression	Lean Bears	-	-
ATS Analysis	Lean Bears	-	-
Cover Summary	Bears	No Bet	No Bet
Possession Efficiency	Lean Under	-	-
DVOA Regression	Lean Under	-	-
Comprehensive	Under	-	-
Down Efficiency	Under	-	-
Game Conditions	Under	-	-
Total Summary	Under	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Bears \| Under

Premium Content

Thu, 10/9, 8:15 p.m. Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

Situational Systems

Eagles

Basic Systems

Baller Systems

Giants

Basic Systems

Baller Systems

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Giants (Home)

Eagles (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Eagles Schedule

Giants Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Sun, 10/12, 12:00 a.m. (Neutral field) New York Jets / Denver Broncos

Situational Systems

Jets

Basic Systems

Broncos

Basic Systems

Baller Systems

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Broncos (Home)

Jets (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Jets Schedule

Broncos Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Sun, 10/12, 1:00 p.m. Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts

Situational Systems

Cardinals

Basic Systems

Colts

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Colts (Home)

Cardinals (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Cardinals Schedule

Colts Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Sun, 10/12, 1:00 p.m. Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins

Situational Systems

Chargers

Basic Systems

Baller Systems

Dolphins

Basic Systems

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Dolphins (Home)

Chargers (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Chargers Schedule

Dolphins Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Thu, 10/9, 8:15 p.m.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

Sun, 10/12, 12:00 a.m. (Neutral field)
New York Jets / Denver Broncos

Sun, 10/12, 1:00 p.m.
Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts

Sun, 10/12, 1:00 p.m.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins

Sun, 10/12, 1:00 p.m.
Seattle Seahawks @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, 10/12, 1:00 p.m.
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers

Sun, 10/12, 1:00 p.m.
Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens

Sun, 10/12, 1:00 p.m.
New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints