Hello Ballers! A disappointing Sunday to end the weekend with 0-3 on the play. Monday is a new day with a nice NBA slate on Martin Luther King Day.
Published: Monday, Jan 20, 12:15 AM CST
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Timberwolves @ Grizzlies
- Timberwolves: 5-0 1H ATS as road underdogs
- Grizzlies: 28-14 ATS overall
- Timberwolves: 16-26 ATS overall
TMB thoughts: The systems favor the Timberwolves in this spot, fading the Grizzlies after an unsustainably strong shooting performance (19 threes, 56.7% from the field). Returning home after a 4-game road trip and having played 9 of their last 11 games on the road, fatigue will likely be a factor for the Grizzlies.
While the Grizzlies have been trending positively in terms of covering the spread compared to the Timberwolves, we’re trusting the systems here. Timberwolves +3.5 is the play.
Hawks @ Knicks
- 3 Baller Systems active on the Knicks, fading the Hawks
- Hawks: 3-7 ATS with less rest than their opponent
- Knicks: 3-1-1 ATS in the first game of a B2B
TMB Thoughts: The Knicks are well-positioned here, backed by strong systems fading the Hawks after an emotional overtime upset against the defending champion Celtics. This marks the Hawks’ eighth road game in their last nine—a grueling stretch that has made January a road-weary month for Atlanta.
With the Hawks likely dealing with fatigue and the Knicks’ scrappy play style, we’re backing Knicks -6.5 to take advantage of this spot.
Suns @ Cavaliers
- Cavs: 28-13 ATS overall; 27-14 O/U
- Suns: 14-26-1 ATS
TMB Thoughts: Trends point to the Cavs, but I don’t find enough evidence to back them. We’re passing on this game.
Celtics @ Warriors
- Celtics: 5-12 O/U as road favorites
TMB Thoughts: We’re backing the Celtics -7.5 in this matchup, fueled by a strong revenge angle and a bounce-back narrative after their loss as a home favorite. We expect the Celtics to deliver a focused effort against the Warriors.
Bulls @ Clippers
- Bulls: 1-6 ATS on the second game of a B2B
- Clippers: 9-2 ATS as home favorites
TMB Thoughts: While there are favorable signs pointing to the Clippers, including their strong record as home favorites and the Bulls’ struggles on back-to-backs, we don’t see enough compelling reasons to back a side in this game.