Ravens @ Chiefs [ Chiefs -2.5 / 46 ]

Ravens | - (-)
Chiefs | - (-)

Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Model output will show after week 3.

Ravens Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Chiefs Situational Notes

Ravens Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/15BALBAL -9
LV +9
42.5LV---
9/5KCBAL +2.5
KC -2.5
46BAL---
1/28BAL [ 10 ]BAL -4.5
KC +4.5
44KC [ 17 ]-7-11.5-17
1/20BAL [ 34 ]BAL -9.5
HOU +9.5
44HOU [ 10 ]+24+14.50
1/6BAL [ 10 ]BAL +3
PIT -3
33.5PIT [ 17 ]-7-4-6.5
12/31BAL [ 56 ]BAL -3
MIA +3
46MIA [ 19 ]+37+34+29
12/25SF [ 19 ]BAL +6.5
SF -6.5
47BAL [ 33 ]+14+20.5+5
12/17JAX [ 7 ]BAL -4
JAX +4
42.5BAL [ 23 ]+16+12-12.5
12/10BAL [ 37 ]BAL -7.5
LAR +7.5
42LAR [ 31 ]+6-1.5+26
11/26LAC [ 10 ]BAL -3
LAC +3
49BAL [ 20 ]+10+7-19
Chiefs Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/15KCKC -6.5
CIN +6.5
48CIN---
9/5KCKC -2.5
BAL +2.5
46BAL---
2/11SF [ 22 ]KC +1
SF -1
47.5KC [ 25 ]+3+4-0.5
1/28BAL [ 10 ]KC +4.5
BAL -4.5
44KC [ 17 ]+7+11.5-17
1/21BUF [ 24 ]KC +2.5
BUF -2.5
45.5KC [ 27 ]+3+5.5+5.5
1/13KC [ 26 ]KC -4.5
MIA +4.5
43.5MIA [ 7 ]+19+14.5-10.5
1/7LAC [ 12 ]KC +3
LAC -3
35.5KC [ 13 ]+1+4-10.5
12/31KC [ 25 ]KC -7
CIN +7
45.5CIN [ 17 ]+8+1-3.5
12/25KC [ 14 ]KC -11.5
LV +11.5
40LV [ 20 ]-6-17.5-6
12/17NE [ 17 ]KC -10
NE +10
39.5KC [ 27 ]+100+4.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginYdsRushRecPlaysYds/PlayYds/PtIntFum
9/5KCKC -2.5
BAL +2.5
46BAL---KC
BAL		-
-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-
1/28BAL [ 10 ]KC +4.5
BAL -4.5
44KC [ 17 ]+7+11.5-17KC
BAL		330
353		89
81		241
272		74
58		4.5
6.1		19.4
33		1
0		2
2
9/19BAL [ 36 ]KC -3.5
BAL +3.5
53.5KC [ 35 ]-1-4.5+17.5KC
BAL		405
490		62
251		343
239		49
69		8.3
7.1		11.6
11.3		2
1		2
1
9/28BAL [ 20 ]KC +3.5
BAL -3.5
55KC [ 34 ]+14+17.5-1KC
BAL		517
255		132
158		385
97		74
55		7
4.6		15.2
25.9		0
0		1
3
9/22KC [ 33 ]KC -4.5
BAL +4.5
52BAL [ 28 ]+5+0.5+9KC
BAL		514
470		140
203		374
267		65
79		7.9
5.9		15.6
18.4		0
0		3
0
12/9KC [ 27 ]KC -6.5
BAL +6.5
49BAL [ 24 ]+3-3.5+2KC
BAL		471
341		94
194		377
147		88
69		5.4
4.9		17.4
19.6		0
1		1
1
12/20BAL [ 14 ]KC -6.5
BAL +6.5
41KC [ 34 ]+20+13.5+7KC
BAL		284
374		113
93		171
281		58
67		4.9
5.6		8.4
20.3		2
0		1
1
10/7KC [ 6 ]KC +6
BAL -6
46BAL [ 9 ]-3+3-31KC
BAL		338
320		214
133		124
187		70
58		4.8
5.5		56.3
37.6		1
2		3
1

Performance
Ravens
(21 games)		 Chiefs
(19 games)
0.74 (1)Win Percentage0.71 (2)
63.16 (3)ATS Win%65 (2)
44.44 (16)OU%30 (32)
27.74 (4)PPG22.19 (14)
16.16 (1)PPG Allowed17 (2)

Possession
Ravens
(21 games)		 Chiefs
(19 games)
65.26 (15)Plays/game66.33 (13)
66.68 (26)Plays/game Allowed63.9 (7)
31.09 (9)Time of Possession (min)30.91 (12)
29.5 (9)Time of Possession Allowed29.81 (12)
2.56 (21)Avg. Time/Drive (min)2.76 (8)
2.45 (5)Avg. Time/Drive Allowed2.7 (24)

Downs
Ravens
(21 games)		 Chiefs
(19 games)
20.95 (7)First Downs21.05 (6)
12.11 (30)Third Downs13.19 (16)
40.87 (11)Third Conv. Rate43.32 (6)
0.95 (30)Fourth Downs1.14 (24)
66.67 (2)Fourth Conv. Rate54.16 (12)

Yardage Overview
Ravens
(21 games)		 Chiefs
(19 games)
382.95 (5)Total Yds368.1 (8)
322.11 (6)Total Yds Allowed317.1 (5)
31.72 (12)Avg. Yds/Drive33.64 (10)
27.07 (4)Avg. Yds/Drive Allowed29.06 (8)
5.87 (4)Avg. Yds/Play5.55 (11)
4.83 (3)Avg. Yds/Play Allowed4.96 (5)
3.26 (1)Sacks/game3.05 (3)
2.53 (20)Sacks Allowed1.57 (2)

Rushing
Ravens
(21 games)		 Chiefs
(19 games)
156.37 (1)Rush Yds109.33 (17)
104.58 (12)Rush Yds Allowed113.05 (16)
4.96 (3)Yds/Carry4.28 (12)
4.31 (20)Yds/Carry Allowed4.43 (24)
52 (1)Run%40.7 (26)
39.5 (4)Run% Allowed43 (11)
1.32 (20)Fumbles1.52 (29)
1.47 (4)Fumbles Forced1.38 (10)

Receiving
Ravens
(21 games)		 Chiefs
(19 games)
226.58 (21)Rec Yds258.76 (8)
217.53 (7)Rec Yds Allowed204.05 (4)
7.78 (4)Yds/Pass6.93 (19)
5.85 (1)Yds/Pass Allowed6.04 (2)
48 (32)Pass%59.3 (7)
60.5 (29)Pass% Allowed57 (22)
0.95 (23)Int Thrown0.48 (6)
0.42 (32)Int Forced0.86 (12)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Ravens 1h14-2-26-2-10-0-15-0-02-0-01-1-11-0-0
Ravens 14-57-30-14-12-03-11-0
Chiefs 1h9-6-25-3-00-0-03-2-21-1-02-1-01-4-1
Chiefs 15-65-40-05-23-03-04-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Ravens 1h14-4-05-4-01-0-05-0-02-0-01-2-01-0-0
Ravens 12-7-06-4-00-1-03-2-02-0-02-2-01-0-0
Chiefs 1h7-10-05-3-00-0-01-6-01-1-01-2-00-6-0
Chiefs 13-7-15-4-00-0-03-3-13-0-03-0-03-3-1

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Ravens 1h7-10-15-4-00-1-01-4-01-0-11-2-01-0-0
Ravens 8-10-15-4-10-1-01-4-02-0-01-2-11-0-0
Chiefs 1h9-7-15-3-00-0-03-3-11-1-02-1-04-2-0
Chiefs 6-14-11-7-10-0-04-3-01-2-01-1-13-4-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Ravens 1h10-7-16-3-00-1-01-3-12-0-01-2-01-0-0
Ravens 12-7-07-3-00-1-02-3-02-0-02-2-01-0-0
Chiefs 1h8-9-03-5-00-0-03-4-02-0-02-1-02-4-0
Chiefs 7-14-03-6-00-0-02-5-01-2-02-1-02-5-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Ravens 1h5-13-05-4-00-1-00-5-00-2-02-1-01-0-0
Ravens 4-14-13-7-00-1-01-3-10-2-01-3-00-1-0
Chiefs 1h11-6-04-4-00-0-06-1-01-1-02-1-06-0-0
Chiefs 5-14-21-8-00-0-04-2-10-2-10-2-13-3-1


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Ravens0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-0-0 (100%)7-3-0 (70%)2-3-0 (40%)0-0-0 (-)
Chiefs0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)3-0-0 (100%)2-1-0 (66.7%)4-3-0 (57.1%)2-2-0 (50%)2-1-1 (66.7%)