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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Model output will show after week 3.


Jaguars Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Dolphins Situational Notes
Lookahead: next gave versus division rival
Lookahead: next game is on Thursday (short 3-day rest)

Jaguars Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/15JAX
(7d rest)
JAX -3
CLE +3
41CLE
(7d rest)
---
9/8MIA
(0d rest)
JAX +3.5
MIA -3.5
50JAX
(0d rest)
---

Dolphins Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/12MIA
(4d rest)
MIA -2.5
BUF +2.5
49BUF
(4d rest)
---
9/8MIA
(0d rest)
MIA -3.5
JAX +3.5
50JAX
(0d rest)
---

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
9/8/24
Week 1
MIA
(0d rest)
MIA -3.5
JAX +3.5
50JAX
(0d rest)
---MIA
JAX
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0
0
2
10/17/21
Week 6
JAX [ 23 ]
(7d rest)
MIA 0
JAX 0
47MIA [ 20 ]
(7d rest)
-3-3-4MIA
JAX
431
403
77
84
354
319
71
65
6.1
6.2
21.6
18.7
0
1
1
1



Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Jaguars 1h--------------
Jaguars -------
Dolphins 1h--------------
Dolphins -------

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Jaguars 1h--------------
Jaguars --------------
Dolphins 1h--------------
Dolphins --------------

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Jaguars 1h--------------
Jaguars --------------
Dolphins 1h--------------
Dolphins --------------

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Jaguars 1h--------------
Jaguars --------------
Dolphins 1h--------------
Dolphins --------------

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Jaguars 1h--------------
Jaguars --------------
Dolphins 1h--------------
Dolphins --------------


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Dolphins0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Jaguars0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)