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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Model output will show after week 3.


Commanders Situational Notes
Lookahead: next gave versus division rival

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Buccaneers Situational Notes

Commanders Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/15WAS
(7d rest)		WAS -1.5
NYG +1.5
43NYG
(7d rest)		---
9/8TB
(0d rest)		WAS +4
TB -4
42.5WAS
(0d rest)		---

Buccaneers Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/15DET
(7d rest)		TB +7.5
DET -7.5
51.5TB
(7d rest)		---
9/8TB
(0d rest)		TB -4
WAS +4
42.5WAS
(0d rest)		---

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
9/8/24
Week 1		TB
(0d rest)		TB -4
WAS +4
42.5WAS
(0d rest)		---TB
WAS		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		0
0		0
3
11/14/21
Week 10		WAS [ 29 ]
(14d rest)		TB -9.5
WAS +9.5
50.5TB [ 19 ]
(14d rest)		-10-19.5-2.5TB
WAS		273
350		53
94		220
256		49
74		5.6
4.7		14.4
9.4		0
2		0
1


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Commanders 1h--------------
Commanders -------
Buccaneers 1h--------------
Buccaneers -------

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Commanders 1h--------------
Commanders --------------
Buccaneers 1h--------------
Buccaneers --------------

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Commanders 1h--------------
Commanders --------------
Buccaneers 1h--------------
Buccaneers --------------

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Commanders 1h--------------
Commanders --------------
Buccaneers 1h--------------
Buccaneers --------------

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Commanders 1h--------------
Commanders --------------
Buccaneers 1h--------------
Buccaneers --------------


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Buccaneers0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Commanders0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)