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Updated: 12/29/25 3:58 p.m.
Thu, 12/25, 1:00 p.m.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
Cowboys: 6-8 (42.9%) - NFC East
Commanders: 4-11 (26.7%) - NFC East
Line: +8.5
Total: 50.5
Open: +3.5
Open: 51.0
Notes
Cowboys
Situational Factor(s)
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Short rest: 3 days (TNF)
Rest Disadvantage
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Commanders
Situational Factor(s)
Rest Advantage
In-season revenge
In-season revenge (2 TDs+)
Short rest: 4 or 5 days
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Cowboys
57.19% probability
Total Recommendation
No Play
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Commanders are 25% (3-9) against the spread as a dog
The Commanders are 25% (1-3) against the spread as a home dog
The Commanders are 83.3% (5-1-1) to the over/under at home
The Commanders are 100% (4-0) to the over/under as a home dog
The Commanders are 28.6% (4-10) (L14) against the spread
The Commanders are 25% (3-9) (L14) against the spread as a dog
The Commanders are 25% (1-3) (L14) against the spread as a home dog
The Commanders are 100% (5-0-1) (L14) to the over/under at home
The Commanders are 100% (4-0) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog
The Cowboys are 25% (2-6) against the spread as a fav
The Cowboys are 73.3% (11-4) to the over/under
The Cowboys are 71.4% (5-2) to the over/under away
The Cowboys are 75% (6-2) to the over/under as a fav
The Cowboys are 25% (2-6) (L14) against the spread as a fav
The Cowboys are 78.6% (11-3) (L14) to the over/under
The Cowboys are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) to the over/under away
The Cowboys are 75% (6-2) (L14) to the over/under as a fav
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
10/19/25 2025 Commanders 22 Away Cowboys 44 416 152 264 1 1 +1.5 55.5 +22 66
01/05/25 2024 Commanders 23 Away Cowboys 19 394 150 244 0 0 -7.0 43.5 -4 42
11/24/24 2024 Commanders 26 Home Cowboys 34 420 145 275 0 2 -10.5 44.5 +8 60
01/07/24 2023 Commanders 10 Home Cowboys 38 207 50 157 1 1 +13.0 48.0 +28 48
11/23/23 2023 Commanders 10 Away Cowboys 45 431 100 331 1 1 +13.0 48.0 +35 55
01/08/23 2022 Commanders 26 Home Cowboys 6 320 151 169 1 1 +7.5 40.5 -20 32
10/02/22 2022 Commanders 10 Away Cowboys 25 285 62 223 2 0 +3.0 41.5 +15 35
Commanders as Home (3 games) 20.7 - - 26.0 316 115 200 0.7 1.3 +3.3 44.3 +5.3 46.7
All Games Avg (7 games) 18.1 - - 30.1 353 116 238 0.9 0.9 +2.9 45.9 +12.0 48.3
Schedules
Cowboys Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Cowboys - away Giants - - - - - - -5.5 52.5 - -
12/25/25 2025 Cowboys - away Commanders - - - - - - -8.5 50.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Cowboys 17 home Chargers 34 346 91 255 0 1 -2.5 49.5 +17 51
12/14/25 2025 Cowboys 26 home Vikings 34 432 138 294 1 0 -5.5 47.5 +8 60
12/04/25 2025 Cowboys 30 away Lions 44 467 91 376 0 3 +3.5 55.5 +14 74
11/27/25 2025 Cowboys 31 home Chiefs 28 457 137 320 0 1 +3.5 53.5 -3 59
11/23/25 2025 Cowboys 24 home Eagles 21 479 125 354 0 2 +3.0 47.5 -3 45
11/17/25 2025 Cowboys 33 away Raiders 16 382 114 268 1 1 -3.5 48.5 -17 49
11/03/25 2025 Cowboys 17 home Cardinals 27 373 123 250 0 4 -3.5 53.5 +10 44
10/26/25 2025 Cowboys 24 away Broncos 44 354 108 246 1 1 +3.5 51.5 +20 68
10/19/25 2025 Cowboys 44 home Commanders 22 416 152 264 1 1 -1.5 55.5 -22 66
10/12/25 2025 Cowboys 27 away Panthers 30 292 31 261 1 2 -3.0 47.0 +3 57
Away Games Avg (4 games) 28.5 - - 33.5 374 86 288 0.8 1.8 +0.1 50.6 +5.0 62.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 27.3 - - 30.0 400 111 289 0.5 1.6 -0.6 51.0 +2.7 57.3
Commanders Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Commanders - away Eagles - - - - - - +8.0 42.5 - -
12/25/25 2025 Commanders - home Cowboys - - - - - - +8.5 50.5 - -
12/20/25 2025 Commanders 18 home Eagles 29 228 90 138 0 1 +7.0 43.5 +11 47
12/14/25 2025 Commanders 29 away Giants 21 356 145 211 1 4 +2.5 47.5 -8 50
12/07/25 2025 Commanders 0 away Vikings 31 215 107 108 0 1 +1.5 43.5 +31 31
11/30/25 2025 Commanders 26 home Broncos 27 437 143 294 1 2 +6.0 43.5 +1 53
11/16/25 2025 Commanders 13 neutral Dolphins 16 385 172 213 0 1 +2.5 47.5 +3 29
11/09/25 2025 Commanders 22 home Lions 44 306 93 213 0 0 +8.5 49.5 +22 66
11/02/25 2025 Commanders 14 home Seahawks 38 310 157 153 1 1 +2.5 47.5 +24 52
10/27/25 2025 Commanders 7 away Chiefs 28 273 60 213 2 1 +10.5 48.0 +21 35
10/19/25 2025 Commanders 22 away Cowboys 44 355 136 219 0 1 +1.5 55.5 +22 66
10/13/25 2025 Commanders 24 home Bears 25 335 124 211 0 3 -5.5 49.0 +1 49
Home Games Avg (5 games) 20.8 - - 32.6 323 121 202 0.4 1.4 +3.7 46.6 +11.8 53.4
All Games Avg (10 games) 17.5 - - 30.3 320 123 197 0.5 1.5 +3.7 47.5 +12.8 47.8
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Thu, 12/25, 4:30 p.m.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Lions: 8-7 (53.3%) - NFC North
Vikings: 7-8 (46.7%) - NFC North
Line: +7.5
Total: 45.5
Open: +3.5
Open: 48.5
Notes
Lions
Situational Factor(s)
In-season revenge
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Short rest: 3 days (TNF)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Vikings
Situational Factor(s)
Short rest: 3 days (TNF)
First game home off 2+ game road trip
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Lions
54.06% probability
Total Recommendation
No Play
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Vikings are 28.6% (2-5) (L14) against the spread as a dog
The Lions are 80% (8-2) to the over/under as a fav
The Lions are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) to the over/under
The Lions are 80% (8-2) (L14) to the over/under as a fav
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
11/02/25 2025 Vikings 27 Away Lions 24 349 65 284 1 1 +9.5 47.5 -3 51
01/05/25 2024 Vikings 9 Away Lions 31 409 178 231 0 0 +3.0 56.5 +22 40
10/20/24 2024 Vikings 29 Home Lions 31 398 139 259 0 0 -1.0 50.0 +2 60
01/07/24 2023 Vikings 20 Away Lions 30 390 70 320 2 0 +4.0 47.5 +10 50
12/24/23 2023 Vikings 24 Home Lions 30 428 17 411 0 2 +2.5 48.0 +6 54
12/11/22 2022 Vikings 23 Away Lions 34 464 134 330 0 0 +2.5 51.5 +11 57
09/25/22 2022 Vikings 28 Home Lions 24 383 123 260 1 2 -6.0 52.5 -4 52
Vikings as Home (3 games) 27.0 - - 28.3 403 93 310 0.3 1.3 -1.5 50.2 +1.3 55.3
All Games Avg (7 games) 22.9 - - 29.1 403 104 299 0.6 0.7 +2.1 50.5 +6.3 52.0
Schedules
Lions Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Lions - away Bears - - - - - - +2.5 50.5 - -
12/25/25 2025 Lions - away Vikings - - - - - - -7.5 45.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Lions 24 home Steelers 29 379 15 364 0 1 -7.0 52.0 +5 53
12/14/25 2025 Lions 34 away Rams 41 408 70 338 1 0 +5.5 55.5 +7 75
12/04/25 2025 Lions 44 home Cowboys 30 418 109 309 2 0 -3.5 55.5 -14 74
11/27/25 2025 Lions 24 home Packers 31 375 119 256 0 1 -2.5 47.5 +7 55
11/23/25 2025 Lions 34 home Giants 27 516 237 279 1 0 -12.5 50.5 -7 61
11/16/25 2025 Lions 9 away Eagles 16 329 74 255 0 0 +2.5 46.0 +7 25
11/09/25 2025 Lions 44 away Commanders 22 546 226 320 0 0 -8.5 49.5 -22 66
11/02/25 2025 Lions 24 home Vikings 27 349 65 284 1 1 -9.5 47.5 +3 51
10/20/25 2025 Lions 24 home Buccaneers 9 405 164 241 1 1 -6.0 54.5 -15 33
10/12/25 2025 Lions 17 away Chiefs 30 301 98 203 0 1 +2.5 51.5 +13 47
Away Games Avg (4 games) 26.0 - - 27.3 396 117 279 0.3 0.3 +0.5 50.6 +1.3 53.3
All Games Avg (10 games) 27.8 - - 26.2 403 118 285 0.6 0.5 -3.9 51.0 -1.6 54.0
Vikings Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Vikings - home Packers - - - - - - -6.5 36.5 - -
12/25/25 2025 Vikings - home Lions - - - - - - +7.5 45.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Vikings 16 away Giants 13 274 114 160 1 1 -3.0 43.5 -3 29
12/14/25 2025 Vikings 34 away Cowboys 26 327 77 250 0 0 +5.5 47.5 -8 60
12/07/25 2025 Vikings 31 home Commanders 0 325 162 163 2 0 -1.5 43.5 -31 31
11/30/25 2025 Vikings 0 away Seahawks 26 192 66 126 0 2 +12.5 42.5 +26 26
11/23/25 2025 Vikings 6 away Packers 23 180 93 87 0 2 +6.5 41.5 +17 29
11/16/25 2025 Vikings 17 home Bears 19 265 115 150 0 1 -2.5 47.5 +2 36
11/09/25 2025 Vikings 19 home Ravens 27 368 120 248 0 2 +4.5 48.5 +8 46
11/02/25 2025 Vikings 27 away Lions 24 285 142 143 0 1 +9.5 47.5 -3 51
10/23/25 2025 Vikings 10 away Chargers 37 191 34 157 1 1 +3.5 44.5 +27 47
10/19/25 2025 Vikings 22 home Eagles 28 402 89 313 0 2 +2.5 44.0 +6 50
Home Games Avg (4 games) 22.3 - - 18.5 340 122 219 0.5 1.3 +0.8 45.9 -3.8 40.8
All Games Avg (10 games) 18.2 - - 22.3 281 101 180 0.4 1.2 +3.8 45.1 +4.1 40.5
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Thu, 12/25, 8:15 p.m.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Broncos: 12-3 (80.0%) - AFC West
Chiefs: 6-9 (40.0%) - AFC West
Line: +13.5
Total: 37.5
Open: +5.5
Open: 39.5
Notes
Broncos
Situational Factor(s)
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Short rest: 3 days (TNF)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller System(s)
Back favorite off a game as a fav w/ low turnovers Historical ATS/OU RecordL5 Years: 145 - 105 - 6 (58.0%)L365 Days: 21 - 23 - 0 (47.7%)Current Season: 19 - 21 - 0 (47.5%)
Chiefs
Situational Factor(s)
In-season revenge
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Short rest: 3 days (TNF)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Broncos
55.63% probability
Total Recommendation
No Play
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Chiefs are 26.7% (4-11) to the over/under
The Chiefs are 12.5% (1-7) to the over/under at home
The Chiefs are 21.4% (3-11) (L14) to the over/under
The Chiefs are 12.5% (1-7) (L14) to the over/under at home
The Broncos are 20% (2-8) against the spread as a fav
The Broncos are 22.2% (2-7) (L14) against the spread as a fav
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
11/16/25 2025 Chiefs 19 Away Broncos 22 354 59 295 1 1 -4.0 44.5 +3 41
01/05/25 2024 Chiefs 0 Away Broncos 38 479 158 321 0 0 +10.5 40.5 +38 38
11/10/24 2024 Chiefs 16 Home Broncos 14 323 57 266 0 0 -7.5 42.5 -2 30
10/29/23 2023 Chiefs 9 Away Broncos 24 267 153 114 2 2 -7.0 45.5 +15 33
10/12/23 2023 Chiefs 19 Home Broncos 8 402 96 306 2 2 -10.5 47.5 -11 27
01/01/23 2022 Chiefs 27 Home Broncos 24 374 46 328 1 1 -12.5 46.0 -3 51
12/11/22 2022 Chiefs 34 Away Broncos 28 369 106 263 3 1 -9.0 44.0 -6 62
Chiefs as Home (3 games) 20.7 - - 15.3 366 66 300 1.0 1.0 -10.2 45.3 -5.3 36.0
All Games Avg (7 games) 17.7 - - 22.6 367 96 270 1.3 1.0 -5.7 44.4 +4.9 40.3
Schedules
Broncos Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Broncos - home Chargers - - - - - - -7.5 39.5 - -
12/25/25 2025 Broncos - away Chiefs - - - - - - -13.5 37.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Broncos 20 home Jaguars 34 453 101 352 0 1 -3.0 46.5 +14 54
12/14/25 2025 Broncos 34 home Packers 26 391 89 302 2 1 +2.5 43.5 -8 60
12/07/25 2025 Broncos 24 away Raiders 17 364 152 212 0 0 -8.5 40.5 -7 41
11/30/25 2025 Broncos 27 away Commanders 26 408 87 321 1 1 -6.0 43.5 -1 53
11/16/25 2025 Broncos 22 home Chiefs 19 354 59 295 1 1 +4.0 44.5 -3 41
11/06/25 2025 Broncos 10 home Raiders 7 234 84 150 1 0 -9.5 42.5 -3 17
11/02/25 2025 Broncos 18 away Texans 15 273 100 173 0 1 +1.5 40.5 -3 33
10/26/25 2025 Broncos 44 home Cowboys 24 426 179 247 2 0 -3.5 51.5 -20 68
10/19/25 2025 Broncos 33 home Giants 32 421 142 279 1 1 -8.0 40.5 -1 65
10/12/25 2025 Broncos 13 neutral Jets 11 252 78 174 0 2 -7.0 43.5 -2 24
Away Games Avg (3 games) 23.0 - - 19.3 348 113 235 0.3 0.7 -4.3 41.5 -3.7 42.3
All Games Avg (10 games) 24.5 - - 21.1 358 107 251 0.8 0.8 -3.8 43.7 -3.4 45.6
Chiefs Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Chiefs - away Raiders - - - - - - -5.5 37.0 - -
12/25/25 2025 Chiefs - home Broncos - - - - - - +13.5 37.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Chiefs 9 away Titans 26 177 51 126 0 2 -3.0 37.5 +17 35
12/14/25 2025 Chiefs 13 home Chargers 16 260 49 211 1 0 -5.5 41.5 +3 29
12/07/25 2025 Chiefs 10 home Texans 20 286 126 160 0 0 -4.5 41.5 +10 30
11/27/25 2025 Chiefs 28 away Cowboys 31 380 119 261 1 1 -3.5 53.5 +3 59
11/23/25 2025 Chiefs 23 home Colts 20 500 148 352 0 1 -3.5 50.0 -3 43
11/16/25 2025 Chiefs 19 away Broncos 22 338 62 276 0 0 -4.0 44.5 +3 41
11/02/25 2025 Chiefs 21 away Bills 28 329 79 250 0 0 -2.5 53.0 +7 49
10/27/25 2025 Chiefs 28 home Commanders 7 447 148 299 2 2 -10.5 48.0 -21 35
10/19/25 2025 Chiefs 31 home Raiders 0 438 152 286 0 2 -13.5 44.5 -31 31
10/12/25 2025 Chiefs 30 home Lions 17 369 112 257 0 1 -2.5 51.5 -13 47
Home Games Avg (6 games) 22.5 - - 13.3 383 123 261 0.5 1.0 -6.7 46.2 -9.2 35.8
All Games Avg (10 games) 21.2 - - 18.7 352 105 248 0.4 0.9 -5.3 46.6 -2.5 39.9
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sat, 12/27, 4:30 p.m.
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers
Texans: 10-5 (66.7%) - AFC South
Chargers: 11-4 (73.3%) - AFC West
Line: -1.5
Total: 41.0
Notes
Texans
Situational Factor(s)
Short rest: 4 or 5 days
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Chargers
Situational Factor(s)
Short rest: 4 or 5 days
First game home off 2+ game road trip
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller System(s)
Unders system: playoff rematch Historical ATS/OU RecordL5 Years: 28 - 36 - 0 (43.8%)L365 Days: 7 - 7 - 0 (50.0%)Current Season: 6 - 6 - 0 (50.0%)
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
No Play
Total Recommendation
No Play
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Chargers are 71.4% (5-2) against the spread at home
The Chargers are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) against the spread at home
The Texans are 28.6% (2-5) to the over/under away
The Texans are 28.6% (2-5) to the over/under as a dog
The Texans are 20% (1-4) to the over/under as an away dog
The Texans are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/11/25 2024 Chargers 12 Away Texans 32 450 168 282 4 3 -3.0 42.5 +20 44
10/02/22 2022 Chargers 34 Away Texans 24 377 131 246 0 1 -5.5 45.0 -10 58
All Games Avg (2 games) 23.0 - - 28.0 414 150 264 2.0 2.0 -4.3 43.8 +5.0 51.0
Schedules
Texans Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Texans - home Colts - - - - - - -10.5 40.0 - -
12/27/25 2025 Texans - away Chargers - - - - - - +1.5 41.0 - -
12/21/25 2025 Texans 23 home Raiders 21 270 83 187 1 1 -14.5 38.0 -2 44
12/14/25 2025 Texans 40 home Cardinals 20 403 143 260 1 1 -10.5 42.5 -20 60
12/07/25 2025 Texans 20 away Chiefs 10 285 82 203 3 0 +4.5 41.5 -10 30
11/30/25 2025 Texans 20 away Colts 16 384 108 276 0 1 +3.0 44.5 -4 36
11/20/25 2025 Texans 23 home Bills 19 261 108 153 2 0 +4.5 44.0 -4 42
11/16/25 2025 Texans 16 away Titans 13 349 75 274 0 0 -5.5 37.5 -3 29
11/09/25 2025 Texans 36 home Jaguars 29 422 130 292 1 2 +1.5 37.5 -7 65
11/02/25 2025 Texans 15 home Broncos 18 293 77 216 1 0 -1.5 40.5 +3 33
10/26/25 2025 Texans 26 home Fortyniners 15 475 157 318 1 0 -3.0 41.5 -11 41
10/20/25 2025 Texans 19 away Seahawks 27 285 56 229 2 0 +3.0 41.5 +8 46
Away Games Avg (4 games) 18.8 - - 16.5 326 80 246 1.3 0.3 +1.3 41.3 -2.3 35.3
All Games Avg (10 games) 23.8 - - 18.8 343 102 241 1.2 0.5 -1.9 40.9 -5.0 42.6
Chargers Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Chargers - away Broncos - - - - - - +7.5 39.5 - -
12/27/25 2025 Chargers - home Texans - - - - - - -1.5 41.0 - -
12/21/25 2025 Chargers 34 away Cowboys 17 452 152 300 0 1 +2.5 49.5 -17 51
12/14/25 2025 Chargers 16 away Chiefs 13 304 94 210 2 1 +5.5 41.5 -3 29
12/08/25 2025 Chargers 22 home Eagles 19 308 169 139 4 3 +1.5 42.0 -3 41
11/30/25 2025 Chargers 31 home Raiders 14 352 192 160 1 0 -9.5 40.5 -17 45
11/16/25 2025 Chargers 6 away Jaguars 35 160 42 118 1 0 -3.0 43.5 +29 41
11/09/25 2025 Chargers 25 home Steelers 10 335 115 220 2 0 -3.0 45.5 -15 35
11/02/25 2025 Chargers 27 away Titans 20 381 131 250 0 1 -10.0 44.5 -7 47
10/23/25 2025 Chargers 37 home Vikings 10 434 207 227 1 0 -3.5 44.5 -27 47
10/19/25 2025 Chargers 24 home Colts 38 474 54 420 0 0 -2.5 49.0 +14 62
10/12/25 2025 Chargers 29 away Dolphins 27 404 140 264 3 2 -3.5 45.5 -2 56
Home Games Avg (5 games) 27.8 - - 18.2 381 147 233 1.6 0.6 -3.4 44.3 -9.6 46.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 25.1 - - 20.3 360 130 231 1.4 0.8 -2.6 44.6 -4.8 45.4
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sat, 12/27, 8:00 p.m.
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers
Ravens: 7-8 (46.7%) - AFC North
Packers: 9-5 (64.3%) - NFC North
Line: -2.5
Total: 37.5
Notes
Ravens
Situational Factor(s)
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Short rest: 4 or 5 days
Rest Disadvantage
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Packers
Situational Factor(s)
Rest Advantage
First game home off 2+ game road trip
Coming off an Overtime game
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller System(s)
Unders system based on the market total being substantially lower than average scoring Historical ATS/OU RecordL5 Years: 61 - 93 - 0 (39.6%)L365 Days: 21 - 24 - 0 (46.7%)Current Season: 14 - 19 - 0 (42.4%)
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Ravens
57.19% probability
Total Recommendation
No Play
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Packers are 28.6% (2-5) to the over/under at home
The Packers are 28.6% (2-5) to the over/under as a home fav
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

No previous matchups between these teams in the last 3 seasons.

Schedules
Ravens Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Ravens - away Steelers - - - - - - -3.0 41.0 - -
12/27/25 2025 Ravens - away Packers - - - - - - +2.5 37.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Ravens 24 home Patriots 28 337 171 166 1 2 -3.0 48.0 +4 52
12/20/25 2025 Ravens away Packers 0 0 0 0 0 - - 0 0
12/14/25 2025 Ravens 24 away Bengals 0 339 189 150 2 1 -3.0 51.5 -24 24
12/07/25 2025 Ravens 22 home Steelers 27 436 217 219 0 0 -5.5 43.5 +5 49
11/27/25 2025 Ravens 14 home Bengals 32 369 123 246 0 4 -7.0 52.5 +18 46
11/23/25 2025 Ravens 23 home Jets 10 251 98 153 1 1 -13.5 44.5 -13 33
11/16/25 2025 Ravens 23 away Browns 16 377 184 193 1 1 -7.5 37.5 -7 39
11/09/25 2025 Ravens 27 away Vikings 19 328 152 176 2 3 -4.5 48.5 -8 46
10/30/25 2025 Ravens 28 away Dolphins 6 354 150 204 1 0 -7.5 51.5 -22 34
10/26/25 2025 Ravens 30 home Bears 16 363 177 186 1 1 -2.5 44.5 -14 46
Away Games Avg (5 games) 20.4 - - 8.2 280 135 145 1.2 1.0 -5.6 47.3 -12.2 28.6
All Games Avg (10 games) 21.5 - - 15.4 315 146 169 0.9 1.3 -6.0 46.9 -6.1 36.9
Packers Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Packers - away Vikings - - - - - - +6.5 36.5 - -
12/27/25 2025 Packers - home Ravens - - - - - - -2.5 37.5 - -
12/20/25 2025 Packers 16 away Bears 22 390 192 198 0 3 +1.5 44.5 +6 38
12/14/25 2025 Packers 26 away Broncos 34 391 115 276 0 0 -2.5 43.5 +8 60
12/07/25 2025 Packers 28 home Bears 21 351 117 234 1 0 -6.5 44.5 -7 49
11/27/25 2025 Packers 31 away Lions 24 359 125 234 0 2 +2.5 47.5 -7 55
11/23/25 2025 Packers 23 home Vikings 6 292 146 146 2 0 -6.5 41.5 -17 29
11/16/25 2025 Packers 27 away Giants 20 308 128 180 1 2 -7.5 42.5 -7 47
11/10/25 2025 Packers 7 home Eagles 10 280 104 176 0 3 -1.0 45.0 +3 17
11/02/25 2025 Packers 13 home Panthers 16 377 104 273 1 1 -12.5 43.5 +3 29
10/26/25 2025 Packers 35 away Steelers 25 454 94 360 0 2 -2.5 46.0 -10 60
10/19/25 2025 Packers 27 away Cardinals 23 273 94 179 0 2 -7.0 44.5 -4 50
Home Games Avg (4 games) 17.8 - - 13.3 325 118 207 1.0 1.0 -6.6 43.6 -4.5 31.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 23.3 - - 20.1 348 122 226 0.5 1.5 -4.2 44.3 -3.2 43.4
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/28, 1:00 p.m.
Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals
Cardinals: 3-12 (20.0%) - NFC West
Bengals: 5-10 (33.3%) - AFC North
Line: -7.0
Total: 53.5
Open: -5.5
Open: 50.5
Notes
Cardinals
Situational Factor(s)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Bengals
Situational Factor(s)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Cardinals
54.06% probability
Total Recommendation
No Play
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Bengals are 71.4% (5-2) to the over/under at home
The Bengals are 75% (3-1) to the over/under as a fav
The Bengals are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) to the over/under at home
The Cardinals are 71.4% (5-2) against the spread away
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
10/08/23 2023 Bengals 34 Away Cardinals 20 308 142 166 1 1 -3.0 45.5 -14 54
All Games Avg (1 games) 34.0 - - 20.0 308 142 166 1.0 1.0 -3.0 45.5 -14.0 54.0
Schedules
Cardinals Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Cardinals - away Rams - - - - - - +9.5 47.0 - -
12/28/25 2025 Cardinals - away Bengals - - - - - - +7.0 53.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Cardinals 19 home Falcons 26 335 132 203 1 0 +3.0 48.0 +7 45
12/14/25 2025 Cardinals 20 away Texans 40 321 72 249 0 1 +10.5 42.5 +20 60
12/07/25 2025 Cardinals 17 home Rams 45 322 51 271 0 0 +9.5 49.5 +28 62
11/30/25 2025 Cardinals 17 away Buccaneers 20 396 95 301 0 1 +4.5 45.5 +3 37
11/23/25 2025 Cardinals 24 home Jaguars 27 370 55 315 3 1 +3.0 47.5 +3 51
11/16/25 2025 Cardinals 22 home Fortyniners 41 488 36 452 0 1 +3.5 48.5 +19 63
11/09/25 2025 Cardinals 22 away Seahawks 44 387 129 258 1 2 +7.5 44.5 +22 66
11/03/25 2025 Cardinals 27 away Cowboys 17 380 119 261 1 1 +3.5 53.5 -10 44
10/19/25 2025 Cardinals 23 home Packers 27 373 94 279 0 1 +7.0 44.5 +4 50
10/12/25 2025 Cardinals 27 away Colts 31 408 88 320 1 0 +8.5 46.5 +4 58
Away Games Avg (5 games) 22.6 - - 30.4 378 101 278 0.6 1.0 +6.9 46.5 +7.8 53.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 21.8 - - 31.8 378 87 291 0.7 0.8 +6.1 47.1 +10.0 53.6
Bengals Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Bengals - home Browns - - - - - - -7.5 44.5 - -
12/28/25 2025 Bengals - home Cardinals - - - - - - -7.0 53.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Bengals 45 away Dolphins 21 418 105 313 2 0 -4.0 47.5 -24 66
12/14/25 2025 Bengals 0 home Ravens 24 325 100 225 1 1 +3.0 51.5 +24 24
12/07/25 2025 Bengals 34 away Bills 39 346 62 284 0 0 +6.0 54.5 +5 73
11/27/25 2025 Bengals 32 away Ravens 14 389 128 261 1 1 +7.0 52.5 -18 46
11/23/25 2025 Bengals 20 home Patriots 26 317 120 197 1 0 +7.0 51.5 +6 46
11/16/25 2025 Bengals 12 away Steelers 34 304 105 199 0 1 +5.5 47.5 +22 46
11/02/25 2025 Bengals 42 home Bears 47 516 46 470 0 1 +3.0 51.5 +5 89
10/26/25 2025 Bengals 38 home Jets 39 404 181 223 0 0 -5.5 43.5 +1 77
10/16/25 2025 Bengals 33 home Steelers 31 484 142 342 2 0 +5.5 45.0 -2 64
10/12/25 2025 Bengals 18 away Packers 27 274 55 219 1 0 +14.0 44.5 +9 45
Home Games Avg (5 games) 26.6 - - 33.4 409 118 291 0.8 0.4 +2.6 48.6 +6.8 60.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 27.4 - - 30.2 378 104 273 0.8 0.4 +4.2 49.0 +2.8 57.6
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/28, 1:00 p.m.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Steelers: 9-6 (60.0%) - AFC North
Browns: 3-12 (20.0%) - AFC North
Line: +3.5
Total: 33.5
Open: +4.5
Notes
Steelers
Situational Factor(s)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller System(s)
Unders system: based on team with consecutive road games and a higher than average total Historical ATS/OU RecordL5 Years: 76 - 111 - 4 (40.6%)L365 Days: 16 - 17 - 1 (48.5%)Current Season: 12 - 16 - 1 (42.9%)
Browns
Situational Factor(s)
In-season revenge
In-season revenge (2 TDs+)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller System(s)
Unders system based on the market total being substantially lower than average scoring Historical ATS/OU RecordL5 Years: 61 - 93 - 0 (39.6%)L365 Days: 21 - 24 - 0 (46.7%)Current Season: 14 - 19 - 0 (42.4%)
Play dogs of less than 7 points who are on a 3+ game losing streak vs teams on a 3+ game winning streak. Historical ATS/OU RecordL5 Years: 17 - 3 - 1 (85.0%)L365 Days: 5 - 1 - 0 (83.3%)Current Season: 3 - 1 - 0 (75.0%)
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Steelers
54.06% probability
Total Recommendation
No Play
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Browns are 71.4% (5-2) against the spread at home
The Browns are 80% (4-1) against the spread as a home dog
The Browns are 75% (3-1) (L14) against the spread as a home dog
The Steelers are 71.4% (5-2) to the over/under away
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
10/12/25 2025 Browns 9 Away Steelers 23 335 100 235 0 1 +6.5 38.0 +14 32
12/08/24 2024 Browns 14 Away Steelers 27 278 120 158 2 1 +6.0 42.5 +13 41
11/21/24 2024 Browns 24 Home Steelers 19 304 85 219 0 3 +3.5 36.5 -5 43
11/19/23 2023 Browns 13 Home Steelers 10 261 96 165 0 0 -2.5 34.5 -3 23
09/18/23 2023 Browns 22 Away Steelers 26 277 55 222 1 1 -2.5 38.5 +4 48
01/08/23 2022 Browns 14 Away Steelers 28 339 144 195 2 3 +2.5 39.5 +14 42
09/22/22 2022 Browns 29 Home Steelers 17 391 171 220 0 0 -4.0 37.5 -12 46
Browns as Home (3 games) 22.0 - - 15.3 319 117 201 0.0 1.0 -1.0 36.2 -6.7 37.3
All Games Avg (7 games) 17.9 - - 21.4 312 110 202 0.7 1.3 +1.4 38.1 +3.6 39.3
Schedules
Steelers Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Steelers - home Ravens - - - - - - +3.0 41.0 - -
12/28/25 2025 Steelers - away Browns - - - - - - -3.5 33.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Steelers 29 away Lions 24 496 230 266 0 1 +7.0 52.0 -5 53
12/15/25 2025 Steelers 28 home Dolphins 15 359 135 224 1 0 -3.5 42.0 -13 43
12/07/25 2025 Steelers 27 away Ravens 22 318 34 284 1 0 +5.5 43.5 -5 49
11/30/25 2025 Steelers 7 home Bills 26 175 58 117 1 2 +3.0 44.5 +19 33
11/23/25 2025 Steelers 28 away Bears 31 357 186 171 0 2 +2.5 45.5 +3 59
11/16/25 2025 Steelers 34 home Bengals 12 354 111 243 1 0 -5.5 47.5 -22 46
11/09/25 2025 Steelers 10 away Chargers 25 234 73 161 0 2 +3.0 45.5 +15 35
11/02/25 2025 Steelers 27 home Colts 20 241 38 203 3 1 +3.0 51.5 -7 47
10/26/25 2025 Steelers 25 home Packers 35 312 93 219 0 1 +2.5 46.0 +10 60
10/16/25 2025 Steelers 31 away Bengals 33 396 147 249 0 0 -5.5 45.0 +2 64
Away Games Avg (5 games) 25.0 - - 27.0 360 134 226 0.2 1.0 +2.5 46.3 +2.0 52.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 24.6 - - 24.3 324 111 214 0.7 0.9 +1.2 46.3 -0.3 48.9
Browns Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Browns - away Bengals - - - - - - +7.5 44.5 - -
12/28/25 2025 Browns - home Steelers - - - - - - +3.5 33.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Browns 20 home Bills 23 296 160 136 0 1 +10.5 42.0 +3 43
12/14/25 2025 Browns 3 away Bears 31 227 50 177 0 0 +7.5 38.5 +28 34
12/07/25 2025 Browns 29 home Titans 31 425 61 364 1 2 -4.0 33.5 +2 60
11/30/25 2025 Browns 8 home Fortyniners 26 287 138 149 0 4 +5.5 35.5 +18 34
11/23/25 2025 Browns 24 away Raiders 10 273 64 209 0 1 +3.5 36.0 -14 34
11/16/25 2025 Browns 16 home Ravens 23 221 106 115 2 1 +7.5 37.5 +7 39
11/09/25 2025 Browns 20 away Jets 27 325 158 167 1 0 -2.0 37.5 +7 47
10/26/25 2025 Browns 13 away Patriots 32 224 68 156 1 0 +7.0 40.5 +19 45
10/19/25 2025 Browns 31 home Dolphins 6 220 104 116 3 1 -2.5 34.5 -25 37
10/12/25 2025 Browns 9 away Steelers 23 286 65 221 0 0 +6.5 38.0 +14 32
Home Games Avg (5 games) 20.8 - - 21.8 290 114 176 1.2 1.8 +3.4 36.6 +1.0 42.6
All Games Avg (10 games) 17.3 - - 23.2 278 97 181 0.8 1.0 +4.0 37.4 +5.9 40.5
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/28, 1:00 p.m.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Jaguars: 11-4 (73.3%) - AFC South
Colts: 8-7 (53.3%) - AFC South
Line: +4.5
Total: 48.5
Open: +6.5
Notes
Jaguars
Situational Factor(s)
Rest Advantage
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Colts
Situational Factor(s)
In-season revenge
In-season revenge (2 TDs+)
Short rest: 4 or 5 days
Rest Disadvantage
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller System(s)
Play dogs of less than 7 points who are on a 3+ game losing streak vs teams on a 3+ game winning streak. Historical ATS/OU RecordL5 Years: 17 - 3 - 1 (85.0%)L365 Days: 5 - 1 - 0 (83.3%)Current Season: 3 - 1 - 0 (75.0%)
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
No Play
Total Recommendation
No Play
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Jaguars are 85.7% (6-1) to the over/under away
The Jaguars are 75% (3-1) to the over/under as an away fav
The Jaguars are 85.7% (6-1) (L14) to the over/under away
The Jaguars are 75% (3-1) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/07/25 2025 Colts 19 Away Jaguars 36 350 103 247 2 2 -2.5 44.5 +17 55
01/05/25 2024 Colts 26 Home Jaguars 23 441 177 264 1 0 -3.5 46.5 -3 49
10/06/24 2024 Colts 34 Away Jaguars 37 497 126 371 0 2 +4.0 44.5 +3 71
10/15/23 2023 Colts 20 Away Jaguars 37 266 85 181 3 0 +4.0 44.0 +17 57
09/10/23 2023 Colts 21 Home Jaguars 31 288 65 223 1 2 +3.5 45.5 +10 52
10/16/22 2022 Colts 34 Home Jaguars 27 434 45 389 0 2 -2.5 41.0 -7 61
09/18/22 2022 Colts 0 Away Jaguars 24 331 96 235 3 0 -3.0 43.5 +24 24
Colts as Home (3 games) 27.0 - - 27.0 388 96 292 0.7 1.3 -0.8 44.3 0.0 54.0
All Games Avg (7 games) 22.0 - - 30.7 372 100 273 1.4 1.1 0.0 44.2 +8.7 52.7
Schedules
Jaguars Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Jaguars - home Titans - - - - - - -12.0 47.5 - -
12/28/25 2025 Jaguars - away Colts - - - - - - -4.5 48.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Jaguars 34 away Broncos 20 360 81 279 1 0 +3.0 46.5 -14 54
12/14/25 2025 Jaguars 48 home Jets 20 438 108 330 3 1 -13.5 40.5 -28 68
12/07/25 2025 Jaguars 36 home Colts 19 350 103 247 2 2 +2.5 44.5 -17 55
11/30/25 2025 Jaguars 25 away Titans 3 299 70 229 0 0 -6.0 42.5 -22 28
11/23/25 2025 Jaguars 27 away Cardinals 24 390 134 256 0 1 -3.0 47.5 -3 51
11/16/25 2025 Jaguars 35 home Chargers 6 345 192 153 1 0 +3.0 43.5 -29 41
11/09/25 2025 Jaguars 29 away Texans 36 252 94 158 1 2 -1.5 37.5 +7 65
11/02/25 2025 Jaguars 30 away Raiders 29 371 151 220 1 1 -2.5 43.5 -1 59
10/19/25 2025 Jaguars 7 neutral Rams 35 390 94 296 0 1 +3.0 44.5 +28 42
10/12/25 2025 Jaguars 12 home Seahawks 20 317 59 258 0 1 +1.5 47.5 +8 32
Away Games Avg (5 games) 29.0 - - 22.4 334 106 228 0.6 0.8 -2.0 43.5 -6.6 51.4
All Games Avg (10 games) 28.3 - - 21.2 351 109 243 0.9 0.9 -1.4 43.8 -7.1 49.5
Colts Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Colts - away Texans - - - - - - +10.5 40.0 - -
12/28/25 2025 Colts - home Jaguars - - - - - - +4.5 48.5 - -
12/22/25 2025 Colts 27 home Fortyniners 48 335 58 277 1 2 +6.5 46.5 +21 75
12/14/25 2025 Colts 16 away Seahawks 18 217 97 120 0 0 +13.5 42.5 +2 34
12/07/25 2025 Colts 19 away Jaguars 36 294 89 205 0 1 -2.5 44.5 +17 55
11/30/25 2025 Colts 16 home Texans 20 287 86 201 1 2 -3.0 44.5 +4 36
11/23/25 2025 Colts 20 away Chiefs 23 255 74 181 1 0 +3.5 50.0 +3 43
11/09/25 2025 Colts 31 neutral Falcons 25 578 323 255 0 4 -6.5 48.5 -6 56
11/02/25 2025 Colts 20 away Steelers 27 397 55 342 0 4 -3.0 51.5 +7 47
10/26/25 2025 Colts 38 home Titans 14 436 164 272 1 0 -14.5 48.0 -24 52
10/19/25 2025 Colts 38 away Chargers 24 408 120 288 2 1 +2.5 49.0 -14 62
10/12/25 2025 Colts 31 home Cardinals 27 362 150 212 1 0 -8.5 46.5 -4 58
Home Games Avg (4 games) 28.0 - - 27.3 355 115 241 1.0 1.0 -4.9 46.4 -0.8 55.3
All Games Avg (10 games) 25.6 - - 26.2 357 122 235 0.7 1.4 -1.2 47.2 +0.6 51.8
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/28, 1:00 p.m.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
Buccaneers: 7-8 (46.7%) - NFC South
Dolphins: 6-9 (40.0%) - AFC East
Line: +5.5
Total: 46.5
Open: +4.5
Notes
Buccaneers
Situational Factor(s)
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller System(s)
Unders system: based on team with consecutive road games and a higher than average total Historical ATS/OU RecordL5 Years: 76 - 111 - 4 (40.6%)L365 Days: 16 - 17 - 1 (48.5%)Current Season: 12 - 16 - 1 (42.9%)
Dolphins
Situational Factor(s)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
No Play
Total Recommendation
No Play
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Buccaneers are 25% (2-6) to the over/under away
The Buccaneers are 28.6% (4-10) (L14) against the spread
The Buccaneers are 25% (2-6) (L14) against the spread as a fav
The Buccaneers are 28.6% (2-5) (L14) to the over/under away
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

No previous matchups between these teams in the last 3 seasons.

Schedules
Buccaneers Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Buccaneers - home Panthers - - - - - - -3.0 43.5 - -
12/28/25 2025 Buccaneers - away Dolphins - - - - - - -5.5 46.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Buccaneers 20 away Panthers 23 314 169 145 0 0 -3.0 45.5 +3 43
12/11/25 2025 Buccaneers 28 home Falcons 29 365 88 277 0 1 -6.0 43.5 +1 57
12/07/25 2025 Buccaneers 20 home Saints 24 301 179 122 1 1 -7.5 41.5 +4 44
11/30/25 2025 Buccaneers 20 home Cardinals 17 289 95 194 1 1 -4.5 45.5 -3 37
11/23/25 2025 Buccaneers 7 away Rams 34 226 123 103 0 1 +6.5 49.5 +27 41
11/16/25 2025 Buccaneers 32 away Bills 44 375 202 173 2 1 +6.5 46.5 +12 76
11/09/25 2025 Buccaneers 23 home Patriots 28 386 113 273 1 0 -2.5 48.5 +5 51
10/26/25 2025 Buccaneers 23 away Saints 3 240 88 152 2 2 -3.5 46.0 -20 26
10/20/25 2025 Buccaneers 9 away Lions 24 269 41 228 1 2 +6.0 54.5 +15 33
10/12/25 2025 Buccaneers 30 home Fortyniners 19 360 104 256 2 1 -3.5 47.0 -11 49
Away Games Avg (5 games) 18.2 - - 25.6 285 125 160 1.0 1.2 +2.5 48.4 +7.4 43.8
All Games Avg (10 games) 21.2 - - 24.5 313 120 192 1.0 1.0 -1.2 46.8 +3.3 45.7
Dolphins Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Dolphins - away Patriots - - - - - - +11.0 45.5 - -
12/28/25 2025 Dolphins - home Buccaneers - - - - - - +5.5 46.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Dolphins 21 home Bengals 45 389 129 260 0 2 +4.0 47.5 +24 66
12/15/25 2025 Dolphins 15 away Steelers 28 316 63 253 0 0 +3.5 42.0 +13 43
12/07/25 2025 Dolphins 34 away Jets 10 366 239 127 3 1 -2.5 41.5 -24 44
11/30/25 2025 Dolphins 21 home Saints 17 321 164 157 1 1 -5.5 41.5 -4 38
11/16/25 2025 Dolphins 16 neutral Commanders 13 340 169 171 1 0 -2.5 47.5 -3 29
11/09/25 2025 Dolphins 30 home Bills 13 370 197 173 1 0 +8.5 50.0 -17 43
10/30/25 2025 Dolphins 6 home Ravens 28 348 87 261 0 2 +7.5 51.5 +22 34
10/26/25 2025 Dolphins 34 away Falcons 10 346 141 205 0 0 +7.0 44.5 -24 44
10/19/25 2025 Dolphins 6 away Browns 31 252 99 153 0 6 +2.5 34.5 +25 37
10/12/25 2025 Dolphins 27 home Chargers 29 350 137 213 0 0 +3.5 45.5 +2 56
Home Games Avg (5 games) 21.0 - - 26.4 356 143 213 0.4 1.0 +3.6 47.2 +5.4 47.4
All Games Avg (10 games) 21.0 - - 22.4 340 143 197 0.6 1.2 +2.6 44.6 +1.4 43.4
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/28, 1:00 p.m.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Patriots: 12-3 (80.0%) - AFC East
Jets: 3-12 (20.0%) - AFC East
Line: +13.5
Total: 42.5
Open: +9.0
Open: 42.5
Notes
Patriots
Situational Factor(s)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Jets
Situational Factor(s)
In-season revenge
First game home off 2+ game road trip
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Patriots
55.63% probability
Total Recommendation
No Play
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Jets are 71.4% (5-2) to the over/under at home
The Jets are 80% (4-1) to the over/under as a home dog
The Jets are 75% (3-1) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog
The Patriots are 85.7% (6-1) against the spread away
The Patriots are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) against the spread
The Patriots are 85.7% (6-1) (L14) against the spread away
The Patriots are 75% (6-2) (L14) against the spread as a fav
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
11/13/25 2025 Jets 14 Away Patriots 27 346 65 281 0 0 +12.5 43.5 +13 41
10/27/24 2024 Jets 22 Away Patriots 25 267 112 155 0 2 -7.0 41.5 +3 47
09/19/24 2024 Jets 24 Home Patriots 3 414 133 281 0 1 -6.5 39.5 -21 27
01/07/24 2023 Jets 17 Away Patriots 3 176 88 88 0 1 +2.0 28.5 -14 20
09/24/23 2023 Jets 10 Home Patriots 15 195 38 157 0 1 +2.5 35.5 +5 25
11/20/22 2022 Jets 3 Away Patriots 10 345 99 246 0 1 +3.5 38.0 +7 13
10/30/22 2022 Jets 17 Home Patriots 22 406 51 355 1 0 +3.0 40.0 +5 39
Jets as Home (3 games) 17.0 - - 13.3 338 74 264 0.3 0.7 -0.3 38.3 -3.7 30.3
All Games Avg (7 games) 15.3 - - 15.0 307 84 223 0.1 0.9 +1.4 38.1 -0.3 30.3
Schedules
Patriots Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Patriots - home Dolphins - - - - - - -11.0 45.5 - -
12/28/25 2025 Patriots - away Jets - - - - - - -13.5 42.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Patriots 28 away Ravens 24 459 79 380 0 3 +3.0 48.0 -4 52
12/14/25 2025 Patriots 31 home Bills 35 401 246 155 0 2 +2.5 49.5 +4 66
12/01/25 2025 Patriots 33 home Giants 15 401 119 282 0 0 -7.0 46.5 -18 48
11/23/25 2025 Patriots 26 away Bengals 20 401 107 294 1 0 -7.0 51.5 -6 46
11/13/25 2025 Patriots 27 home Jets 14 346 65 281 0 0 -12.5 43.5 -13 41
11/09/25 2025 Patriots 28 away Buccaneers 23 436 166 270 0 1 +2.5 48.5 -5 51
11/02/25 2025 Patriots 24 home Falcons 23 369 110 259 0 2 -5.5 45.5 -1 47
10/26/25 2025 Patriots 32 home Browns 13 459 177 282 2 2 -7.0 40.5 -19 45
10/19/25 2025 Patriots 31 away Titans 13 409 175 234 1 0 -6.5 41.5 -18 44
10/12/25 2025 Patriots 25 away Saints 19 334 73 261 0 2 -3.5 45.5 -6 44
Away Games Avg (5 games) 27.6 - - 19.8 408 120 288 0.4 1.2 -2.3 47.0 -7.8 47.4
All Games Avg (10 games) 28.5 - - 19.9 402 132 270 0.4 1.2 -4.1 46.1 -8.6 48.4
Jets Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Jets - away Bills - - - - - - +8.5 39.5 - -
12/28/25 2025 Jets - home Patriots - - - - - - +13.5 42.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Jets 6 away Saints 29 252 64 188 0 1 +4.5 40.5 +23 35
12/14/25 2025 Jets 20 away Jaguars 48 306 130 176 0 0 +13.5 40.5 +28 68
12/07/25 2025 Jets 10 home Dolphins 34 234 65 169 0 3 +2.5 41.5 +24 44
11/30/25 2025 Jets 27 home Falcons 24 282 110 172 0 0 +3.0 38.5 -3 51
11/23/25 2025 Jets 10 away Ravens 23 300 78 222 0 1 +13.5 44.5 +13 33
11/13/25 2025 Jets 14 away Patriots 27 256 140 116 0 1 +12.5 43.5 +13 41
11/09/25 2025 Jets 27 home Browns 20 181 127 54 0 0 +2.0 37.5 -7 47
10/26/25 2025 Jets 39 away Bengals 38 502 254 248 0 0 +5.5 43.5 -1 77
10/19/25 2025 Jets 6 home Panthers 13 253 81 172 0 0 -1.5 39.5 +7 19
10/12/25 2025 Jets 11 neutral Broncos 13 137 92 45 0 1 +7.0 43.5 +2 24
Home Games Avg (4 games) 17.5 - - 22.8 238 96 142 0.0 0.8 +1.5 39.3 +5.3 40.3
All Games Avg (10 games) 17.0 - - 26.9 270 114 156 0.0 0.7 +6.3 41.3 +9.9 43.9
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/28, 1:00 p.m.
Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers
Seahawks: 12-3 (80.0%) - NFC West
Panthers: 8-7 (53.3%) - NFC South
Line: +6.5
Total: 42.5
Open: +7.5
Open: 42.5
Notes
Seahawks
Situational Factor(s)
Extended rest: Non-bye week
Rest Advantage
West Coast team traveling East
Coming off an Overtime game
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller System(s)
Back favorite off a game as a fav w/ low turnovers Historical ATS/OU RecordL5 Years: 145 - 105 - 6 (58.0%)L365 Days: 21 - 23 - 0 (47.7%)Current Season: 19 - 21 - 0 (47.5%)
Panthers
Situational Factor(s)
Rest Disadvantage
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
No Play
Total Recommendation
No Play
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Panthers are 71.4% (5-2) against the spread at home
The Panthers are 83.3% (5-1) against the spread as a home dog
The Panthers are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) against the spread at home
The Panthers are 75% (9-3) (L14) against the spread as a dog
The Panthers are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) against the spread as a home dog
The Seahawks are 85.7% (6-1) against the spread away
The Seahawks are 80% (4-1) against the spread as an away fav
The Seahawks are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) against the spread
The Seahawks are 85.7% (6-1) (L14) against the spread away
The Seahawks are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread as an away fav
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
09/24/23 2023 Panthers 27 Away Seahawks 37 442 146 296 0 0 +4.5 43.0 +10 64
12/11/22 2022 Panthers 30 Away Seahawks 24 310 46 264 0 0 +3.5 44.5 -6 54
All Games Avg (2 games) 28.5 - - 30.5 376 96 280 0.0 0.0 +4.0 43.8 +2.0 59.0
Schedules
Seahawks Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Seahawks - away Fortyniners - - - - - - +1.0 49.5 - -
12/28/25 2025 Seahawks - away Panthers - - - - - - -6.5 42.5 - -
12/18/25 2025 Seahawks 38 home Rams 37 441 171 270 0 1 -1.5 42.5 -1 75
12/14/25 2025 Seahawks 18 home Colts 16 321 50 271 1 1 -13.5 42.5 -2 34
12/07/25 2025 Seahawks 37 away Falcons 9 378 129 249 2 2 -7.0 44.5 -28 46
11/30/25 2025 Seahawks 26 home Vikings 0 253 125 128 4 3 -12.5 42.5 -26 26
11/23/25 2025 Seahawks 30 away Titans 24 358 114 244 0 0 -13.0 40.5 -6 54
11/16/25 2025 Seahawks 19 away Rams 21 414 135 279 0 1 +3.0 49.5 +2 40
11/09/25 2025 Seahawks 44 home Cardinals 22 376 198 178 0 4 -7.5 44.5 -22 66
11/02/25 2025 Seahawks 38 away Commanders 14 418 88 330 1 1 -2.5 47.5 -24 52
10/20/25 2025 Seahawks 27 home Texans 19 331 118 213 1 2 -3.0 41.5 -8 46
10/12/25 2025 Seahawks 20 away Jaguars 12 355 60 295 0 0 -1.5 47.5 -8 32
Away Games Avg (5 games) 28.8 - - 16.0 385 105 279 0.6 0.8 -4.2 45.9 -12.8 44.8
All Games Avg (10 games) 29.7 - - 17.4 365 119 246 0.9 1.5 -5.9 44.3 -12.3 47.1
Panthers Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Panthers - away Buccaneers - - - - - - +3.0 43.5 - -
12/28/25 2025 Panthers - home Seahawks - - - - - - +6.5 42.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Panthers 23 home Buccaneers 20 292 101 191 1 0 +3.0 45.5 -3 43
12/14/25 2025 Panthers 17 away Saints 20 290 127 163 0 1 -2.5 40.5 +3 37
11/30/25 2025 Panthers 31 home Rams 28 370 164 206 2 0 +10.0 44.5 -3 59
11/24/25 2025 Panthers 9 away Fortyniners 20 238 69 169 3 1 +7.0 49.5 +11 29
11/16/25 2025 Panthers 30 away Falcons 27 515 67 448 0 0 +4.0 42.0 -3 57
11/09/25 2025 Panthers 7 home Saints 17 197 73 124 0 1 -5.5 37.5 +10 24
11/02/25 2025 Panthers 16 away Packers 13 265 163 102 1 1 +12.5 43.5 -3 29
10/26/25 2025 Panthers 9 home Bills 40 289 114 175 0 3 +7.0 47.5 +31 49
10/19/25 2025 Panthers 13 away Jets 6 323 125 198 2 1 +1.5 39.5 -7 19
10/12/25 2025 Panthers 30 home Cowboys 27 415 216 199 0 2 +3.0 47.0 -3 57
Home Games Avg (5 games) 20.0 - - 26.4 313 134 179 0.6 1.2 +3.5 44.4 +6.4 46.4
All Games Avg (10 games) 18.5 - - 21.8 319 122 198 0.9 1.0 +4.0 43.7 +3.3 40.3
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/28, 1:00 p.m.
New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans
Saints: 5-10 (33.3%) - NFC South
Titans: 3-12 (20.0%) - AFC South
Line: +2.5
Total: 39.5
Open: +2.0
Open: 39.5
Notes
Saints
Situational Factor(s)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Titans
Situational Factor(s)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Saints
54.06% probability
Total Recommendation
No Play
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Saints are 26.7% (4-11) to the over/under
The Saints are 28.6% (4-10) (L14) to the over/under
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
09/10/23 2023 Titans 15 Away Saints 16 374 69 305 3 2 +3.0 41.0 +1 31
All Games Avg (1 games) 15.0 - - 16.0 374 69 305 3.0 2.0 +3.0 41.0 +1.0 31.0
Schedules
Saints Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Saints - away Falcons - - - - - - +1.5 43.5 - -
12/28/25 2025 Saints - away Titans - - - - - - -2.5 39.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Saints 29 home Jets 6 430 84 346 1 1 -4.5 40.5 -23 35
12/14/25 2025 Saints 20 home Panthers 17 353 81 272 0 1 +2.5 40.5 -3 37
12/07/25 2025 Saints 24 away Buccaneers 20 283 139 144 1 1 +7.5 41.5 -4 44
11/30/25 2025 Saints 17 away Dolphins 21 320 81 239 1 1 +5.5 41.5 +4 38
11/23/25 2025 Saints 10 home Falcons 24 322 79 243 1 2 -2.0 40.5 +14 34
11/09/25 2025 Saints 17 away Panthers 7 404 122 282 1 1 +5.5 37.5 -10 24
11/02/25 2025 Saints 10 away Rams 34 233 57 176 0 1 +14.0 44.5 +24 44
10/26/25 2025 Saints 3 home Buccaneers 23 312 48 264 0 2 +3.5 46.0 +20 26
10/19/25 2025 Saints 14 away Bears 26 277 44 233 1 1 +3.5 43.5 +12 40
10/12/25 2025 Saints 19 home Patriots 25 300 73 227 0 1 +3.5 45.5 +6 44
Away Games Avg (5 games) 16.4 - - 21.6 303 89 215 0.8 1.0 +7.2 41.7 +5.2 38.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 16.3 - - 20.3 323 81 243 0.6 1.2 +3.9 42.2 +4.0 36.6
Titans Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Titans - away Jaguars - - - - - - +12.0 47.5 - -
12/28/25 2025 Titans - home Saints - - - - - - +2.5 39.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Titans 26 home Chiefs 9 392 164 228 0 1 +3.0 37.5 -17 35
12/14/25 2025 Titans 24 away Fortyniners 37 306 136 170 0 0 +12.5 44.5 +13 61
12/07/25 2025 Titans 31 away Browns 29 301 184 117 1 0 +4.0 33.5 -2 60
11/30/25 2025 Titans 3 home Jaguars 25 208 67 141 0 3 +6.0 42.5 +22 28
11/23/25 2025 Titans 24 home Seahawks 30 320 64 256 0 0 +13.0 40.5 +6 54
11/16/25 2025 Titans 13 home Texans 16 252 58 194 0 2 +5.5 37.5 +3 29
11/02/25 2025 Titans 20 home Chargers 27 233 88 145 1 2 +10.0 44.5 +7 47
10/26/25 2025 Titans 14 away Colts 38 372 113 259 0 0 +14.5 48.0 +24 52
10/19/25 2025 Titans 13 home Patriots 31 294 39 255 0 1 +6.5 41.5 +18 44
10/12/25 2025 Titans 10 away Raiders 20 287 65 222 1 2 +3.5 41.5 +10 30
Home Games Avg (6 games) 16.5 - - 23.0 283 80 203 0.2 1.5 +7.3 40.7 +6.5 39.5
All Games Avg (10 games) 17.8 - - 26.2 297 98 199 0.3 1.1 +7.9 41.2 +8.4 44.0
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/28, 4:05 p.m.
New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders
Giants: 2-13 (13.3%) - NFC East
Raiders: 2-13 (13.3%) - AFC West
Line: -1.5
Total: 41.5
Open: +3.0
Open: 42.5
Notes
Giants
Situational Factor(s)
East Coast team traveling West
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Raiders
Situational Factor(s)
First game home off 2+ game road trip
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
No Play
Total Recommendation
No Play
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Giants are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) to the over/under away
The Giants are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
11/05/23 2023 Raiders 30 Home Giants 6 334 125 209 2 0 -1.5 37.5 -24 36
Raiders as Home (1 games) 30.0 - - 6.0 334 125 209 2.0 0.0 -1.5 37.5 -24.0 36.0
All Games Avg (1 games) 30.0 - - 6.0 334 125 209 2.0 0.0 -1.5 37.5 -24.0 36.0
Schedules
Giants Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Giants - home Cowboys - - - - - - +5.5 52.5 - -
12/28/25 2025 Giants - away Raiders - - - - - - +1.5 41.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Giants 13 home Vikings 16 161 128 33 1 0 +3.0 43.5 +3 29
12/14/25 2025 Giants 21 home Commanders 29 392 146 246 0 1 -2.5 47.5 +8 50
12/01/25 2025 Giants 15 away Patriots 33 250 111 139 0 1 +7.0 46.5 +18 48
11/23/25 2025 Giants 27 away Lions 34 521 122 399 1 1 +12.5 50.5 +7 61
11/16/25 2025 Giants 20 home Packers 27 343 142 201 0 1 +7.5 42.5 +7 47
11/09/25 2025 Giants 20 away Bears 24 456 169 287 0 1 +4.5 44.5 +4 44
11/02/25 2025 Giants 24 home Fortyniners 34 308 117 191 0 0 +2.5 47.5 +10 58
10/26/25 2025 Giants 20 away Eagles 38 261 68 193 0 0 +7.5 43.5 +18 58
10/19/25 2025 Giants 32 away Broncos 33 402 119 283 0 0 +8.0 40.5 +1 65
10/09/25 2025 Giants 34 home Eagles 17 367 172 195 1 0 +7.5 40.5 -17 51
Away Games Avg (5 games) 22.8 - - 32.4 378 118 260 0.2 0.6 +7.9 45.1 +9.6 55.2
All Games Avg (10 games) 22.6 - - 28.5 346 129 217 0.3 0.5 +5.8 44.7 +5.9 51.1
Raiders Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Raiders - home Chiefs - - - - - - +5.5 37.0 - -
12/28/25 2025 Raiders - home Giants - - - - - - -1.5 41.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Raiders 21 away Texans 23 346 145 201 0 1 +14.5 38.0 +2 44
12/14/25 2025 Raiders 0 away Eagles 31 110 46 64 0 0 +12.5 37.0 +31 31
12/07/25 2025 Raiders 17 home Broncos 24 253 40 213 0 0 +8.5 40.5 +7 41
11/30/25 2025 Raiders 14 away Chargers 31 196 31 165 1 1 +9.5 40.5 +17 45
11/23/25 2025 Raiders 10 home Browns 24 345 60 285 1 2 -3.5 36.0 +14 34
11/17/25 2025 Raiders 16 home Cowboys 33 265 27 238 0 0 +3.5 48.5 +17 49
11/06/25 2025 Raiders 7 away Broncos 10 217 74 143 2 2 +9.5 42.5 +3 17
11/02/25 2025 Raiders 29 home Jaguars 30 341 57 284 1 0 +2.5 43.5 +1 59
10/19/25 2025 Raiders 0 away Chiefs 31 100 25 75 0 2 +13.5 44.5 +31 31
10/12/25 2025 Raiders 20 home Titans 10 242 68 174 1 0 -3.5 41.5 -10 30
Home Games Avg (5 games) 18.4 - - 24.2 289 50 239 0.6 0.4 +1.5 42.0 +5.8 42.6
All Games Avg (10 games) 13.4 - - 24.7 242 57 184 0.6 0.8 +6.7 41.3 +11.3 38.1
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/28, 4:25 p.m.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills
Eagles: 10-5 (66.7%) - NFC East
Bills: 11-4 (73.3%) - AFC East
Line: -1.5
Total: 43.5
Open: -3.0
Open: 44.5
Notes
Eagles
Situational Factor(s)
Extended rest: Non-bye week
Rest Advantage
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Bills
Situational Factor(s)
Rest Disadvantage
First game home off 2+ game road trip
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
No Play
Total Recommendation
No Play
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Bills are 20% (1-4) against the spread as a home fav
The Bills are 71.4% (5-2) to the over/under at home
The Bills are 80% (4-1) to the over/under as a home fav
The Bills are 20% (1-4) (L14) against the spread as a home fav
The Bills are 80% (4-1) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
11/26/23 2023 Bills 34 Away Eagles 37 385 185 200 1 1 +2.5 48.5 +3 71
All Games Avg (1 games) 34.0 - - 37.0 385 185 200 1.0 1.0 +2.5 48.5 +3.0 71.0
Schedules
Eagles Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Eagles - home Commanders - - - - - - -8.0 42.5 - -
12/28/25 2025 Eagles - away Bills - - - - - - +1.5 43.5 - -
12/20/25 2025 Eagles 29 away Commanders 18 392 207 185 1 2 -7.0 43.5 -11 47
12/14/25 2025 Eagles 31 home Raiders 0 391 183 208 1 0 -12.5 37.0 -31 31
12/08/25 2025 Eagles 19 away Chargers 22 374 134 240 1 2 -1.5 42.0 +3 41
11/28/25 2025 Eagles 15 home Bears 24 317 87 230 1 2 -7.0 43.5 +9 39
11/23/25 2025 Eagles 21 away Cowboys 24 352 63 289 1 2 -3.0 47.5 +3 45
11/16/25 2025 Eagles 16 home Lions 9 283 148 135 1 2 -2.5 46.0 -7 25
11/10/25 2025 Eagles 10 away Packers 7 294 111 183 0 1 +1.0 45.0 -3 17
10/26/25 2025 Eagles 38 home Giants 20 455 276 179 0 0 -7.5 43.5 -18 58
10/19/25 2025 Eagles 28 away Vikings 22 371 45 326 2 0 -2.5 44.0 -6 50
10/09/25 2025 Eagles 17 away Giants 34 356 73 283 0 1 -7.5 40.5 +17 51
Away Games Avg (6 games) 20.7 - - 21.2 357 106 251 0.8 1.3 -3.4 43.8 +0.5 41.8
All Games Avg (10 games) 22.4 - - 18.0 359 133 226 0.8 1.2 -5.0 43.3 -4.4 40.4
Bills Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Bills - home Jets - - - - - - -8.5 39.5 - -
12/28/25 2025 Bills - home Eagles - - - - - - -1.5 43.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Bills 23 away Browns 20 294 164 130 2 0 -10.5 42.0 -3 43
12/14/25 2025 Bills 35 away Patriots 31 361 168 193 1 0 -2.5 49.5 -4 66
12/07/25 2025 Bills 39 home Bengals 34 434 183 251 2 2 -6.0 54.5 -5 73
11/30/25 2025 Bills 26 away Steelers 7 372 249 123 1 2 -3.0 44.5 -19 33
11/20/25 2025 Bills 19 away Texans 23 396 143 253 0 1 -4.5 44.0 +4 42
11/16/25 2025 Bills 44 home Buccaneers 32 414 97 317 1 2 -6.5 46.5 -12 76
11/09/25 2025 Bills 13 away Dolphins 30 393 87 306 2 2 -8.5 50.0 +17 43
11/02/25 2025 Bills 28 home Chiefs 21 414 141 273 1 0 +2.5 53.0 -7 49
10/26/25 2025 Bills 40 away Panthers 9 430 245 185 1 0 -7.0 47.5 -31 49
10/13/25 2025 Bills 14 away Falcons 24 314 134 180 0 2 -3.5 49.5 +10 38
Home Games Avg (3 games) 37.0 - - 29.0 421 140 280 1.3 1.3 -3.3 51.3 -8.0 66.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 28.1 - - 23.1 382 161 221 1.1 1.1 -5.0 48.1 -5.0 51.2
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/28, 8:20 p.m.
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco Fortyniners
Bears: 11-4 (73.3%) - NFC North
Fortyniners: 11-4 (73.3%) - NFC West
Line: -3.0
Total: 52.5
Open: -2.5
Open: 50.5
Notes
Bears
Situational Factor(s)
Extended rest: Non-bye week
Rest Advantage
Coming off an Overtime game
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Fortyniners
Situational Factor(s)
Short rest: 4 or 5 days
Rest Disadvantage
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
No Play
Total Recommendation
No Play
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Fortyniners are 81.8% (9-2) against the spread as a fav
The Fortyniners are 80% (8-2) (L14) against the spread as a fav
The Bears are 71.4% (5-2-1) to the over/under away
The Bears are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) against the spread
The Bears are 71.4% (5-2-1) (L14) to the over/under away
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/08/24 2024 Fortyniners 38 Home Bears 13 456 131 325 0 0 -3.0 43.5 -25 51
09/11/22 2022 Fortyniners 10 Away Bears 19 220 99 121 1 0 -6.0 37.5 +9 29
Fortyniners as Home (1 games) 38.0 - - 13.0 456 131 325 0.0 0.0 -3.0 43.5 -25.0 51.0
All Games Avg (2 games) 24.0 - - 16.0 338 115 223 0.5 0.0 -4.5 40.5 -8.0 40.0
Schedules
Bears Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Bears - home Lions - - - - - - -2.5 50.5 - -
12/28/25 2025 Bears - away Fortyniners - - - - - - +3.0 52.5 - -
12/20/25 2025 Bears 22 home Packers 16 400 150 250 0 1 -1.5 44.5 -6 38
12/14/25 2025 Bears 31 home Browns 3 384 142 242 3 1 -7.5 38.5 -28 34
12/07/25 2025 Bears 21 away Packers 28 324 138 186 1 1 +6.5 44.5 +7 49
11/28/25 2025 Bears 24 away Eagles 15 435 281 154 1 0 +7.0 43.5 -9 39
11/23/25 2025 Bears 31 home Steelers 28 338 99 239 1 2 -2.5 45.5 -3 59
11/16/25 2025 Bears 19 away Vikings 17 333 140 193 2 1 +2.5 47.5 -2 36
11/09/25 2025 Bears 24 home Giants 20 391 171 220 0 0 -4.5 44.5 -4 44
11/02/25 2025 Bears 47 away Bengals 42 585 283 302 2 0 -3.0 51.5 -5 89
10/26/25 2025 Bears 16 away Ravens 30 381 96 285 0 1 +2.5 44.5 +14 46
10/19/25 2025 Bears 26 home Saints 14 394 222 172 3 2 -3.5 43.5 -12 40
Away Games Avg (5 games) 25.4 - - 26.4 412 188 224 1.2 0.6 +3.1 46.3 +1.0 51.8
All Games Avg (10 games) 26.1 - - 21.3 397 172 224 1.3 0.9 -0.4 44.8 -4.8 47.4
Fortyniners Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Fortyniners - home Seahawks - - - - - - -1.0 49.5 - -
12/28/25 2025 Fortyniners - home Bears - - - - - - -3.0 52.5 - -
12/22/25 2025 Fortyniners 48 away Colts 27 440 145 295 1 1 -6.5 46.5 -21 75
12/14/25 2025 Fortyniners 37 home Titans 24 433 138 295 0 1 -12.5 44.5 -13 61
11/30/25 2025 Fortyniners 26 away Browns 8 259 91 168 0 0 -5.5 35.5 -18 34
11/24/25 2025 Fortyniners 20 home Panthers 9 340 147 193 2 1 -7.0 49.5 -11 29
11/16/25 2025 Fortyniners 41 away Cardinals 22 295 95 200 2 0 -3.5 48.5 -19 63
11/09/25 2025 Fortyniners 26 home Rams 42 393 74 319 0 1 +5.5 49.5 +16 68
11/02/25 2025 Fortyniners 34 away Giants 24 394 159 235 0 1 -2.5 47.5 -10 58
10/26/25 2025 Fortyniners 15 away Texans 26 241 48 193 1 1 +3.0 41.5 +11 41
10/19/25 2025 Fortyniners 20 home Falcons 10 326 174 152 0 0 -0.5 46.5 -10 30
10/12/25 2025 Fortyniners 19 away Buccaneers 30 414 67 347 0 1 +3.5 47.0 +11 49
Home Games Avg (4 games) 25.8 - - 21.3 373 133 240 0.5 0.8 -3.6 47.5 -4.5 47.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 28.6 - - 22.2 354 114 240 0.6 0.7 -2.6 45.7 -6.4 50.8
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Mon, 12/29, 8:15 p.m.
Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons
Rams: 11-4 (73.3%) - NFC West
Falcons: 6-9 (40.0%) - NFC South
Line: +7.5
Total: 49.0
Open: +8.0
Open: 48.5
Notes
Rams
Situational Factor(s)
Extended rest: Non-bye week
Rest Advantage
West Coast team traveling East
Coming off an Overtime game
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Falcons
Situational Factor(s)
Extended rest: Non-bye week
Rest Disadvantage
First game home off 2+ game road trip
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
No Play
Total Recommendation
No Play
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Notable Trends
The Falcons are 75% (6-2) (L14) against the spread as a dog
The Rams are 73.3% (11-4) against the spread
The Rams are 71.4% (5-2) against the spread away
The Rams are 76.9% (10-3) against the spread as a fav
The Rams are 80% (4-1) against the spread as an away fav
The Rams are 85.7% (6-1) to the over/under away
The Rams are 80% (4-1) to the over/under as an away fav
The Rams are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) against the spread
The Rams are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) against the spread away
The Rams are 75% (9-3) (L14) against the spread as a fav
The Rams are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread as an away fav
The Rams are 85.7% (6-1) (L14) to the over/under away
The Rams are 80% (4-1) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav
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Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
09/18/22 2022 Falcons 27 Away Rams 31 337 65 272 2 1 +10.5 45.5 +4 58
All Games Avg (1 games) 27.0 - - 31.0 337 65 272 2.0 1.0 +10.5 45.5 +4.0 58.0
Schedules
Rams Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Rams - home Cardinals - - - - - - -9.5 47.0 - -
12/29/25 2025 Rams - away Falcons - - - - - - -7.5 49.0 - -
12/18/25 2025 Rams 37 away Seahawks 38 581 124 457 2 0 +1.5 42.5 +1 75
12/14/25 2025 Rams 41 home Lions 34 527 159 368 0 1 -5.5 55.5 -7 75
12/07/25 2025 Rams 45 away Cardinals 17 530 249 281 1 0 -9.5 49.5 -28 62
11/30/25 2025 Rams 28 away Panthers 31 395 152 243 0 1 -10.0 44.5 +3 59
11/23/25 2025 Rams 34 home Buccaneers 7 343 70 273 2 0 -6.5 49.5 -27 41
11/16/25 2025 Rams 21 home Seahawks 19 249 119 130 4 1 -3.0 49.5 -2 40
11/09/25 2025 Rams 42 away Fortyniners 26 406 126 280 1 0 -5.5 49.5 -16 68
11/02/25 2025 Rams 34 home Saints 10 452 171 281 1 0 -14.0 44.5 -24 44
10/19/25 2025 Rams 35 neutral Jaguars 7 271 89 182 0 0 -3.0 44.5 -28 42
10/12/25 2025 Rams 17 away Ravens 3 255 74 181 1 2 -6.5 43.5 -14 20
Away Games Avg (5 games) 33.8 - - 23.0 433 145 288 1.0 0.6 -6.0 45.9 -10.8 56.8
All Games Avg (10 games) 33.4 - - 19.2 401 133 268 1.2 0.5 -6.2 47.3 -14.2 52.6
Falcons Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
01/04/26 2025 Falcons - home Saints - - - - - - -1.5 43.5 - -
12/29/25 2025 Falcons - home Rams - - - - - - +7.5 49.0 - -
12/21/25 2025 Falcons 26 away Cardinals 19 349 152 197 1 1 -3.0 48.0 -7 45
12/11/25 2025 Falcons 29 away Buccaneers 28 484 111 373 1 3 +6.0 43.5 -1 57
12/07/25 2025 Falcons 9 home Seahawks 37 282 120 162 1 1 +7.0 44.5 +28 46
11/30/25 2025 Falcons 24 away Jets 27 401 167 234 0 1 -3.0 38.5 +3 51
11/23/25 2025 Falcons 24 away Saints 10 320 121 199 1 1 +2.0 40.5 -14 34
11/16/25 2025 Falcons 27 home Panthers 30 348 125 223 0 3 -4.0 42.0 +3 57
11/09/25 2025 Falcons 25 neutral Colts 31 317 140 177 1 1 +6.5 48.5 +6 56
11/02/25 2025 Falcons 23 away Patriots 24 292 71 221 1 1 +5.5 45.5 +1 47
10/26/25 2025 Falcons 10 home Dolphins 34 218 45 173 0 1 -7.0 44.5 +24 44
10/19/25 2025 Falcons 10 away Fortyniners 20 303 62 241 1 1 +0.5 46.5 +10 30
Home Games Avg (3 games) 15.3 - - 33.7 283 97 186 0.3 1.7 -1.3 43.7 +18.3 49.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 20.7 - - 26.0 331 111 220 0.7 1.4 +1.1 44.2 +5.3 46.7
Team Comparison Stats Click to load

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