Heat @ Celtics [ Celtics -14.5 / 210 ]

Heat | 47-37 (56%)
Celtics | 64-18 (78%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our modell will run after the first two weeks of the season.

Heat Situational Notes
In-season revenge

Baller Systems
• Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Celtics Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
• Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Heat Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/24BOSMIA +13.5
BOS -13.5
206MIA---
4/21BOSMIA +14.5
BOS -14.5
210MIA---
4/19MIA [ 112 ]MIA -2.5
CHI +2.5
207.5CHI [ 91 ]+21+18.5-4.5
4/17PHI [ 105 ]MIA +6
PHI -6
208.5MIA [ 104 ]-1+5+0.5
4/14MIA [ 118 ]MIA -15
TOR +15
220.5TOR [ 103 ]+150+0.5
4/12MIA [ 125 ]MIA -14
TOR +14
220TOR [ 103 ]+22+8+8
4/10MIA [ 92 ]MIA +5.5
DAL -5.5
215.5DAL [ 111 ]-19-13.5-12.5
4/9ATL [ 111 ]MIA -3.5
ATL +3.5
222MIA [ 117 ]+6+2.5+6
4/7IND [ 117 ]MIA +1.5
IND -1.5
227.5MIA [ 115 ]-2-0.5+4.5
4/5HOU [ 104 ]MIA -2.5
HOU +2.5
215MIA [ 119 ]+15+12.5+8
Celtics Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/24BOSBOS -13.5
MIA +13.5
206MIA---
4/21BOSBOS -14.5
MIA +14.5
210MIA---
4/14BOS [ 132 ]BOS -10
WAS +10
229.5WAS [ 122 ]+100+24.5
4/12BOS [ 131 ]BOS -7.5
CHA +7.5
217.5CHA [ 98 ]+33+25.5+11.5
4/11BOS [ 109 ]BOS +3
NYK -3
221.5NYK [ 118 ]-9-6+5.5
4/9MIL [ 104 ]BOS -2
MIL +2
228BOS [ 91 ]-13-15-33
4/7BOS [ 124 ]BOS -16
POR +16
216POR [ 107 ]+17+1+15
4/5BOS [ 101 ]BOS -10
SAC +10
226SAC [ 100 ]+1-9-25
4/3BOS [ 135 ]BOS -8.5
OKC +8.5
230.5OKC [ 100 ]+35+26.5+4.5
4/1CHA [ 104 ]BOS -17
CHA +17
219BOS [ 118 ]+14-3+3
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
4/2BOS-
-		-MIA----
-
-
-
-
3/14MIA-
-		-BOS----
-
-
-
-
2/10MIA-
-		-BOS----
-
-
-
-
12/2BOS-
-		-MIA----
-
-
-
-
5/1BOSBOS -13
MIA +13
201.5MIA----
-
-
-
-
4/29MIABOS -10.5
MIA +10.5
203.5BOS----
-
-
-
-
4/27MIABOS -9.5
MIA +9.5
206.5BOS----
-
-
-
-
4/24BOSBOS -13.5
MIA +13.5
206MIA----
-
-
-
-
4/21BOSBOS -14.5
MIA +14.5
210MIA----
-
-
-
-
2/11MIA [ 106 ]BOS -5.5
MIA +5.5
226BOS [ 110 ]+4-1.5-1091.4
120.4
116
4.4
216
1/25MIA [ 110 ]BOS -8
MIA +8
224BOS [ 143 ]+33+25+2991.6
156.1
120
36
253



** The first week of the season will include last season's regular games by default.


Efficiency
Heat
(82 games)		 Celtics
(82 games)
0.52 (18)Win Percentage0.79 (1)
49.35 (16)ATS Win%52.56 (11)
42.68 (30)OU%53.75 (6)
-Strength of Schedule-
112.82 (23)Offensive Rating122.43 (1)
111.87 (4)Defensive Rating111.33 (2)
95.6 (28)Pace95.54 (29)
2.02 (15)A/TO Ratio2.32 (3)

Four Factors
Heat
(82 games)		 Celtics
(82 games)
53.23 (22)EFG%57.52 (2)
53.69 (9)EFG% Allowed52.62 (3)
24.74 (13)FT Rate22.1 (27)
21.86 (4)FT Rate Allowed17.8 (1)
21.66 (26)OReb%23.98 (17)
22.38 (3)OReb% Allowed22.91 (6)
13.06 (10)TO Rate11.81 (1)
14.08 (9)TO Rate Forced12.55 (27)

Scoring
Heat
(82 games)		 Celtics
(82 games)
108.4 (27)PPG117.85 (7)
107.49 (3)PPG Allowed107.17 (2)
16.16 (17)Pts off TO15.32 (25)
15.39 (9)Pts off TO Allowed12.94 (1)
10.68 (29)2nd Chance Pts13.05 (22)
13.38 (9)2nd Chance Pts Allowed12.71 (6)
13.59 (19)Fast Break Pts14.39 (16)
12.78 (5)Fast Break Pts Allowed12.55 (4)

Inside the Arc
Heat
(82 games)		 Celtics
(82 games)
42 (25)Paint Attempts36.78 (30)
39.24 (2)Paint Attempts Allowed43.89 (16)
55.11 (26)Paint FG%60.88 (3)
57.68 (18)Paint FG% Allowed56.29 (7)
8.74 (24)Mid-Range Attempts8.7 (25)
9.51 (10)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed11.01 (26)
0.37 (26)Mid-Range FG%0.41 (14)
0.42 (19)Mid-Range FG% Allowed0.43 (24)

Three Point Shooting
Heat
(82 games)		 Celtics
(82 games)
10.52 (4)Corner 3 Attempts10.07 (7)
10.5 (27)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed7.45 (2)
38.7 (17)Corner 3 FG%40.8 (8)
36.82 (5)Corner 3 FG% Allowed33.55 (1)
24.34 (20)ATB3 Attempts33.06 (1)
26.72 (21)ATB3 Attempts Allowed27.32 (24)
35.97 (16)ATB3 FG%37.99 (4)
34.5 (6)ATB3 FG% Allowed34.46 (5)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Heat 1h0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 0-00-00-00-00-00-00-00-00-0
Celtics 1h0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 0-00-00-00-00-00-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Heat 1h0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Heat 1h0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Heat 1h0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Heat 1h0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Heat3-0-0 (100%)8-4-0 (66.7%)9-12-0 (42.9%)8-9-0 (47.1%)16-23-1 (41%)3-5-0 (37.5%)1-4-0 (20%)
Celtics1-0-0 (100%)2-0-0 (100%)2-1-0 (66.7%)8-4-0 (66.7%)16-14-1 (53.3%)14-14-1 (50%)9-14-0 (39.1%)