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Updated: 12/19/25 6:07 p.m.

7:00 p.m.
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics

Heat: 15-12 (55.6%)

Celtics: 15-11 (57.7%)

Line: -7.0

Total: 231.5

Open: -6.5

Open: 233.5

Notes

Heat

Situational Factor(s)

2nd game of a back-to-back

Celtics

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

1st game of a back-to-back

Baller System(s)

Back team with rest advantage and less rest in next game

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Heat

54.06% probability

Total Recommendation

No Play

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Recommendation
Rating Differentials	Heat
Defensive Differentials	Neutral
Broad Feature	Neutral
RMSE/MAE	Neutral
Cover Summary	Heat
Pace Focused	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Heat \| No Total Edge

Notable Trends

The Celtics are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) against the spread

The Heat are 21.4% (3-11) (L14) to the over/under

The Heat are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) to the over/under away

View All Records

Celtics (Home)

The Celtics are 53.8% (14-12) against the spread

The Celtics are 53.8% (7-6) against the spread at home

The Celtics are 50% (8-8) against the spread as a fav

The Celtics are 44.4% (4-5) against the spread as a home fav

The Celtics are 46.2% (12-14) to the over/under

The Celtics are 53.8% (7-6) to the over/under at home

The Celtics are 43.8% (7-9) to the over/under as a fav

The Celtics are 55.6% (5-4) to the over/under as a home fav

The Celtics are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) against the spread

The Celtics are 62.5% (5-3) (L14) against the spread at home

The Celtics are 60% (6-4) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Celtics are 50% (3-3) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Celtics are 50% (7-7) (L14) to the over/under

The Celtics are 50% (4-4) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Celtics are 50% (5-5) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Celtics are 50% (3-3) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Heat (Away)

The Heat are 57.7% (15-11-1) against the spread

The Heat are 58.3% (7-5-1) against the spread away

The Heat are 66.7% (8-4-1) against the spread as a dog

The Heat are 55.6% (5-4-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Heat are 44.4% (12-15) to the over/under

The Heat are 46.2% (6-7) to the over/under away

The Heat are 53.8% (7-6) to the over/under as a dog

The Heat are 50% (5-5) to the over/under as an away dog

The Heat are 50% (7-7) (L14) against the spread

The Heat are 66.7% (4-2) (L14) against the spread away

The Heat are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Heat are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Heat are 21.4% (3-11) (L14) to the over/under

The Heat are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) to the over/under away

The Heat are 0% (0-3) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Heat are 0% (0-3) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
04/02/25	2024	Celtics	103	Home	Heat	124	-10.0	211.0	+21	227
03/14/25	2024	Celtics	103	Away	Heat	91	-8.0	211.5	-12	194
02/10/25	2024	Celtics	103	Away	Heat	85	-8.5	211.0	-18	188
12/02/24	2024	Celtics	108	Home	Heat	89	-9.5	221.0	-19	197
05/01/24	2023	Celtics	118	Home	Heat	84	-13.0	201.5	-34	202
04/29/24	2023	Celtics	102	Away	Heat	88	-10.5	203.5	-14	190
04/27/24	2023	Celtics	104	Away	Heat	84	-9.5	206.5	-20	188
04/24/24	2023	Celtics	101	Home	Heat	111	-13.5	206.0	+10	212
04/21/24	2023	Celtics	114	Home	Heat	94	-14.5	210.0	-20	208
02/11/24	2023	Celtics	110	Away	Heat	106	-5.5	226.0	-4	216
Celtics as Home (5 games)			108.8	-	-	100.4	-12.1	209.9	-8.4	209.2
All Games Avg (10 games)			106.6	-	-	95.6	-10.3	210.8	-11.0	202.2

Schedules

Heat Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/23/25	2025	Heat	-	home	Raptors	-	-	-	-	-
12/21/25	2025	Heat	-	away	Knicks	-	-	-	-	-
12/19/25	2025	Heat	-	away	Celtics	-	+7.0	231.5	-	-
12/18/25	2025	Heat	106	away	Nets	95	-8.5	228.5	-11	201
12/15/25	2025	Heat	96	home	Raptors	106	-4.5	233.5	+10	202
12/09/25	2025	Heat	108	away	Magic	117	+1.5	235.0	+9	225
12/06/25	2025	Heat	111	home	Kings	127	-8.5	241.5	+16	238
12/05/25	2025	Heat	105	away	Magic	106	+6.5	241.5	+1	211
12/03/25	2025	Heat	108	away	Mavericks	118	-4.5	238.5	+10	226
12/01/25	2025	Heat	140	home	Clippers	123	-6.5	235.5	-17	263
11/29/25	2025	Heat	135	home	Pistons	138	-3.5	238.5	+3	273
11/26/25	2025	Heat	106	home	Bucks	103	-10.5	236.5	-3	209
11/24/25	2025	Heat	106	home	Mavericks	102	-7.5	240.5	-4	208
Away Games Avg (4 games)			106.8	-	-	109.0	-1.3	235.9	+2.3	215.8
All Games Avg (10 games)			112.1	-	-	113.5	-4.6	237.0	+1.4	225.6

Celtics Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/22/25	2025	Celtics	-	home	Pacers	-	-	-	-	-
12/20/25	2025	Celtics	-	away	Raptors	-	-1.0	-	-	-
12/19/25	2025	Celtics	-	home	Heat	-	-7.0	231.5	-	-
12/15/25	2025	Celtics	105	home	Pistons	112	-1.5	231.5	+7	217
12/11/25	2025	Celtics	101	away	Bucks	116	-9.5	222.5	+15	217
12/07/25	2025	Celtics	121	away	Raptors	113	-3.5	224.5	-8	234
12/05/25	2025	Celtics	126	home	Lakers	105	-9.0	227.0	-21	231
12/04/25	2025	Celtics	146	away	Wizards	101	-10.5	231.0	-45	247
12/02/25	2025	Celtics	123	home	Knicks	117	+1.0	230.5	-6	240
11/30/25	2025	Celtics	117	away	Cavaliers	115	+7.0	235.0	-2	232
11/29/25	2025	Celtics	115	away	Timberwolves	119	+6.0	229.5	+4	234
11/26/25	2025	Celtics	117	home	Pistons	114	+1.5	233.5	-3	231
11/23/25	2025	Celtics	138	home	Magic	129	-4.0	223.5	-9	267
Home Games Avg (5 games)			121.8	-	-	115.4	-2.4	229.2	-6.4	237.2
All Games Avg (10 games)			120.9	-	-	114.1	-2.3	228.9	-6.8	235.0

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

7:00 p.m.
Philadelphia Seventysixers @ New York Knicks

Seventysixers: 14-11 (56.0%)

Knicks: 20-7 (74.1%)

Line: -6.0

Total: 229.5

Notes

Seventysixers

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

1st game of a back-to-back

Baller System(s)

Fade team off a close win by small margin

Knicks

Situational Factor(s)

2nd game of a back-to-back

3rd game in 4 nights

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

No Play

Total Recommendation

No Play

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Recommendation
Rating Differentials	Neutral
Defensive Differentials	Neutral
Broad Feature	Neutral
RMSE/MAE	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
Pace Focused	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

Notable Trends

The Knicks are 92.9% (13-1) against the spread at home

The Knicks are 70.8% (17-7) against the spread as a fav

The Knicks are 92.3% (12-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Knicks are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) against the spread

The Knicks are 100% (5-0) (L14) against the spread at home

The Knicks are 76.9% (10-3) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Knicks are 100% (5-0) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Knicks are 20% (1-4) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Knicks are 20% (1-4) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

The Seventysixers are 88.9% (8-1-1) against the spread away

The Seventysixers are 75% (3-1-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Seventysixers are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Seventysixers are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) against the spread as a dog

View All Records

Knicks (Home)

The Knicks are 66.7% (18-9) against the spread

The Knicks are 92.9% (13-1) against the spread at home

The Knicks are 70.8% (17-7) against the spread as a fav

The Knicks are 92.3% (12-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Knicks are 55.6% (15-12) to the over/under

The Knicks are 57.1% (8-6) to the over/under at home

The Knicks are 54.2% (13-11) to the over/under as a fav

The Knicks are 53.8% (7-6) to the over/under as a home fav

The Knicks are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) against the spread

The Knicks are 100% (5-0) (L14) against the spread at home

The Knicks are 76.9% (10-3) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Knicks are 100% (5-0) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Knicks are 42.9% (6-8) (L14) to the over/under

The Knicks are 20% (1-4) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Knicks are 38.5% (5-8) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Knicks are 20% (1-4) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Seventysixers (Away)

The Seventysixers are 62.5% (15-9-1) against the spread

The Seventysixers are 88.9% (8-1-1) against the spread away

The Seventysixers are 58.3% (7-5-1) against the spread as a dog

The Seventysixers are 75% (3-1-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Seventysixers are 52% (13-12) to the over/under

The Seventysixers are 60% (6-4) to the over/under away

The Seventysixers are 53.8% (7-6) to the over/under as a dog

The Seventysixers are 60% (3-2) to the over/under as an away dog

The Seventysixers are 42.9% (6-8) (L14) against the spread

The Seventysixers are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Seventysixers are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Seventysixers are 50% (1-1) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Seventysixers are 42.9% (6-8) (L14) to the over/under

The Seventysixers are 40% (2-3) (L14) to the over/under away

The Seventysixers are 66.7% (4-2) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Seventysixers are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
04/01/25	2024	Knicks	105	Home	Seventysixers	91	-13.0	219.0	-14	196
02/26/25	2024	Knicks	110	Home	Seventysixers	105	-8.0	227.0	-5	215
01/15/25	2024	Knicks	125	Away	Seventysixers	119	-5.5	220.0	-6	244
11/12/24	2024	Knicks	111	Away	Seventysixers	99	-3.5	212.5	-12	210
05/02/24	2023	Knicks	118	Away	Seventysixers	115	+3.0	203.0	-3	233
04/30/24	2023	Knicks	106	Home	Seventysixers	112	-4.0	203.0	+6	218
04/28/24	2023	Knicks	97	Away	Seventysixers	92	+5.0	209.0	-5	189
04/25/24	2023	Knicks	114	Away	Seventysixers	125	+5.5	206.0	+11	239
04/22/24	2023	Knicks	104	Home	Seventysixers	101	-4.5	206.0	-3	205
04/20/24	2023	Knicks	111	Home	Seventysixers	104	-4.5	208.5	-7	215
Knicks as Home (5 games)			107.2	-	-	102.6	-6.8	212.7	-4.6	209.8
All Games Avg (10 games)			110.1	-	-	106.3	-3.0	211.4	-3.8	216.4

Schedules

Seventysixers Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/23/25	2025	Seventysixers	-	home	Nets	-	-	-	-	-
12/20/25	2025	Seventysixers	-	home	Mavericks	-	-	-	-	-
12/19/25	2025	Seventysixers	-	away	Knicks	-	+6.0	229.5	-	-
12/14/25	2025	Seventysixers	117	away	Hawks	120	+4.0	225.5	+3	237
12/12/25	2025	Seventysixers	115	home	Pacers	105	-5.5	221.5	-10	220
12/07/25	2025	Seventysixers	108	home	Lakers	112	+2.5	233.5	+4	220
12/05/25	2025	Seventysixers	116	away	Bucks	101	-1.0	221.5	-15	217
12/04/25	2025	Seventysixers	99	home	Warriors	98	-4.0	224.0	-1	197
12/02/25	2025	Seventysixers	121	home	Wizards	102	-13.5	234.5	-19	223
11/30/25	2025	Seventysixers	134	home	Hawks	142	-3.0	232.5	+8	276
11/28/25	2025	Seventysixers	115	away	Nets	103	-7.0	222.0	-12	218
11/25/25	2025	Seventysixers	103	home	Magic	144	+5.0	229.0	+41	247
11/23/25	2025	Seventysixers	117	home	Heat	127	+1.0	241.0	+10	244
Away Games Avg (3 games)			116.0	-	-	108.0	-1.3	223.0	-8.0	224.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			114.5	-	-	115.4	-2.2	228.5	+0.9	229.9

Knicks Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/23/25	2025	Knicks	-	away	Timberwolves	-	-	-	-	-
12/21/25	2025	Knicks	-	home	Heat	-	-	-	-	-
12/19/25	2025	Knicks	-	home	Seventysixers	-	-6.0	229.5	-	-
12/18/25	2025	Knicks	114	away	Pacers	113	-3.5	226.5	-1	227
12/16/25	2025	Knicks	124	neutral	Spurs	113	-2.5	233.5	-11	237
12/13/25	2025	Knicks	132	away	Magic	120	-4.0	225.0	-12	252
12/09/25	2025	Knicks	117	away	Raptors	101	-6.0	226.5	-16	218
12/07/25	2025	Knicks	106	home	Magic	100	-1.5	229.5	-6	206
12/05/25	2025	Knicks	146	home	Jazz	112	-16.0	243.0	-34	258
12/03/25	2025	Knicks	119	home	Hornets	104	-9.0	235.5	-15	223
12/02/25	2025	Knicks	117	away	Celtics	123	-1.0	230.5	+6	240
11/30/25	2025	Knicks	116	home	Raptors	94	-8.5	229.0	-22	210
11/28/25	2025	Knicks	118	home	Bucks	109	-7.5	232.5	-9	227
Home Games Avg (5 games)			121.0	-	-	103.8	-8.5	233.9	-17.2	224.8
All Games Avg (10 games)			120.9	-	-	108.9	-6.0	231.2	-12.0	229.8

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

7:30 p.m.
Chicago Bulls @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Bulls: 11-15 (42.3%)

Cavaliers: 15-13 (53.6%)

Line: -4.5

Total: 237.5

Open: -6.5

Open: 240.5

Notes

Bulls

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Cavaliers

Situational Factor(s)

In-season revenge

Double digit, in-season revenge

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller System(s)

Under system based on back-to-back matchups

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

No Play

Total Recommendation

No Play

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Recommendation
Rating Differentials	Neutral
Defensive Differentials	Neutral
Broad Feature	Neutral
RMSE/MAE	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
Pace Focused	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

Notable Trends

The Cavaliers are 28.6% (8-20) against the spread

The Cavaliers are 25% (4-12) against the spread at home

The Cavaliers are 28% (7-18) against the spread as a fav

The Cavaliers are 26.7% (4-11) against the spread as a home fav

The Cavaliers are 25% (4-12) to the over/under at home

The Cavaliers are 26.7% (4-11) to the over/under as a home fav

The Cavaliers are 28.6% (4-10) (L14) against the spread

The Cavaliers are 28.6% (4-10) (L14) to the over/under

The Cavaliers are 11.1% (1-8) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Cavaliers are 12.5% (1-7) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

The Bulls are 75% (9-3) against the spread as a dog

The Bulls are 23.1% (3-10-1) (L14) against the spread

The Bulls are 75% (3-1) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Bulls are 28.6% (4-10) (L14) to the over/under

View All Records

Cavaliers (Home)

The Cavaliers are 28.6% (8-20) against the spread

The Cavaliers are 25% (4-12) against the spread at home

The Cavaliers are 28% (7-18) against the spread as a fav

The Cavaliers are 26.7% (4-11) against the spread as a home fav

The Cavaliers are 42.9% (12-16) to the over/under

The Cavaliers are 25% (4-12) to the over/under at home

The Cavaliers are 44% (11-14) to the over/under as a fav

The Cavaliers are 26.7% (4-11) to the over/under as a home fav

The Cavaliers are 28.6% (4-10) (L14) against the spread

The Cavaliers are 33.3% (3-6) (L14) against the spread at home

The Cavaliers are 33.3% (4-8) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Cavaliers are 37.5% (3-5) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Cavaliers are 28.6% (4-10) (L14) to the over/under

The Cavaliers are 11.1% (1-8) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Cavaliers are 33.3% (4-8) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Cavaliers are 12.5% (1-7) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Bulls (Away)

The Bulls are 41.7% (10-14-2) against the spread

The Bulls are 33.3% (4-8-1) against the spread away

The Bulls are 75% (9-3) against the spread as a dog

The Bulls are 66.7% (4-2) against the spread as an away dog

The Bulls are 46.2% (12-14) to the over/under

The Bulls are 61.5% (8-5) to the over/under away

The Bulls are 58.3% (7-5) to the over/under as a dog

The Bulls are 66.7% (4-2) to the over/under as an away dog

The Bulls are 23.1% (3-10-1) (L14) against the spread

The Bulls are 33.3% (2-4-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Bulls are 75% (3-1) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Bulls are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Bulls are 28.6% (4-10) (L14) to the over/under

The Bulls are 57.1% (4-3) (L14) to the over/under away

The Bulls are 50% (2-2) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Bulls are 100% (2-0) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/17/25	2025	Cavaliers	111	Away	Bulls	127	-5.5	242.5	+16	238
11/08/25	2025	Cavaliers	128	Home	Bulls	122	-8.5	239.0	-6	250
04/08/25	2024	Cavaliers	135	Home	Bulls	113	-15.0	240.0	-22	248
03/04/25	2024	Cavaliers	139	Away	Bulls	117	-13.5	243.0	-22	256
11/15/24	2024	Cavaliers	144	Home	Bulls	126	-9.5	239.0	-18	270
11/11/24	2024	Cavaliers	119	Away	Bulls	113	-8.0	237.0	-6	232
02/28/24	2023	Cavaliers	123	Away	Bulls	132	-5.0	216.5	+9	255
02/14/24	2023	Cavaliers	108	Home	Bulls	105	-9.0	224.5	-3	213
01/15/24	2023	Cavaliers	109	Home	Bulls	91	-4.5	222.5	-18	200
12/23/23	2023	Cavaliers	109	Away	Bulls	95	+5.5	215.0	-14	204
Cavaliers as Home (5 games)			124.8	-	-	111.4	-9.3	233.0	-13.4	236.2
All Games Avg (10 games)			122.5	-	-	114.1	-7.3	231.9	-8.4	236.6

Schedules

Bulls Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/23/25	2025	Bulls	-	away	Hawks	-	-	-	-	-
12/21/25	2025	Bulls	-	away	Hawks	-	-	-	-	-
12/19/25	2025	Bulls	-	away	Cavaliers	-	+4.5	237.5	-	-
12/17/25	2025	Bulls	127	home	Cavaliers	111	+5.5	242.5	-16	238
12/14/25	2025	Bulls	104	home	Pelicans	114	-4.5	248.0	+10	218
12/12/25	2025	Bulls	129	away	Hornets	126	-3.0	229.0	-3	255
12/07/25	2025	Bulls	91	home	Warriors	123	+1.5	229.5	+32	214
12/05/25	2025	Bulls	105	home	Pacers	120	-4.5	234.5	+15	225
12/03/25	2025	Bulls	103	home	Nets	113	-7.5	231.5	+10	216
12/01/25	2025	Bulls	120	away	Magic	125	+9.5	239.5	+5	245
11/29/25	2025	Bulls	101	away	Pacers	103	-2.5	240.0	+2	204
11/28/25	2025	Bulls	116	away	Hornets	123	-3.0	249.0	+7	239
11/24/25	2025	Bulls	130	away	Pelicans	143	-5.5	243.5	+13	273
Away Games Avg (5 games)			119.2	-	-	124.0	-0.9	240.2	+4.8	243.2
All Games Avg (10 games)			112.6	-	-	120.1	-1.4	238.7	+7.5	232.7

Cavaliers Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/23/25	2025	Cavaliers	-	home	Pelicans	-	-	-	-	-
12/22/25	2025	Cavaliers	-	home	Hornets	-	-	-	-	-
12/19/25	2025	Cavaliers	-	home	Bulls	-	-4.5	237.5	-	-
12/17/25	2025	Cavaliers	111	away	Bulls	127	-5.5	242.5	+16	238
12/14/25	2025	Cavaliers	111	home	Hornets	119	-12.0	232.5	+8	230
12/12/25	2025	Cavaliers	130	away	Wizards	126	-16.5	246.0	-4	256
12/06/25	2025	Cavaliers	94	home	Warriors	99	-8.5	230.0	+5	193
12/05/25	2025	Cavaliers	130	home	Spurs	117	-5.0	239.5	-13	247
12/03/25	2025	Cavaliers	110	home	Trailblazers	122	-10.0	243.5	+12	232
12/01/25	2025	Cavaliers	135	away	Pacers	119	-4.5	230.5	-16	254
11/30/25	2025	Cavaliers	115	home	Celtics	117	-7.0	235.0	+2	232
11/28/25	2025	Cavaliers	123	away	Hawks	130	-6.5	236.5	+7	253
11/24/25	2025	Cavaliers	99	away	Raptors	110	+2.0	231.5	+11	209
Home Games Avg (5 games)			112.0	-	-	114.8	-8.5	236.1	+2.8	226.8
All Games Avg (10 games)			115.8	-	-	118.6	-7.4	236.8	+2.8	234.4

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

7:30 p.m.
San Antonio Spurs @ Atlanta Hawks

Spurs: 19-8 (70.4%)

Hawks: 15-13 (53.6%)

Line: +3.5

Total: 239.0

Open: +2.0

Open: 241.0

Notes

Spurs

Situational Factor(s)

2nd game of a back-to-back

3rd game in 4 nights

Baller System(s)

Back road favorite who won previous matchup at home

Hawks

Situational Factor(s)

In-season revenge

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

2nd game of a back-to-back

Baller System(s)

Over on unrested non-conference road team off a short home stand

Fade team: Fatigue Factor + Letdown Spot

Fade team: Fatigue Factor + Travel

Fading an unrested non-conference road team off a short home stand

Fade team who has played most of their games on the road in recent games

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Hawks

54.06% probability

Total Recommendation

No Play

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Recommendation
Rating Differentials	Neutral
Defensive Differentials	Neutral
Broad Feature	Neutral
RMSE/MAE	Hawks
Cover Summary	Hawks
Pace Focused	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Hawks \| No Total Edge

Notable Trends

The Hawks are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) to the over/under

The Hawks are 85.7% (6-1) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Spurs are 20% (1-4) against the spread as an away fav

The Spurs are 100% (5-0) to the over/under as an away fav

The Spurs are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread as a fav

View All Records

Hawks (Home)

The Hawks are 50% (14-14) against the spread

The Hawks are 36.4% (4-7) against the spread at home

The Hawks are 64.3% (9-5) against the spread as a dog

The Hawks are 66.7% (4-2) against the spread as a home dog

The Hawks are 60.7% (17-11) to the over/under

The Hawks are 54.5% (6-5) to the over/under at home

The Hawks are 57.1% (8-6) to the over/under as a dog

The Hawks are 66.7% (4-2) to the over/under as a home dog

The Hawks are 42.9% (6-8) (L14) against the spread

The Hawks are 33.3% (2-4) (L14) against the spread at home

The Hawks are 57.1% (4-3) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Hawks are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Hawks are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) to the over/under

The Hawks are 66.7% (4-2) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Hawks are 85.7% (6-1) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Hawks are 100% (3-0) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog

Spurs (Away)

The Spurs are 56% (14-11-2) against the spread

The Spurs are 50% (7-7) against the spread away

The Spurs are 50% (7-7-2) against the spread as a fav

The Spurs are 20% (1-4) against the spread as an away fav

The Spurs are 55.6% (15-12) to the over/under

The Spurs are 64.3% (9-5) to the over/under away

The Spurs are 56.3% (9-7) to the over/under as a fav

The Spurs are 100% (5-0) to the over/under as an away fav

The Spurs are 64.3% (9-5) (L14) against the spread

The Spurs are 55.6% (5-4) (L14) against the spread away

The Spurs are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Spurs are 0% (0-1) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Spurs are 57.1% (8-6) (L14) to the over/under

The Spurs are 55.6% (5-4) (L14) to the over/under away

The Spurs are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Spurs are 100% (1-0) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/20/25	2025	Hawks	126	Away	Spurs	135	+1.5	233.5	+9	261
02/05/25	2024	Hawks	125	Home	Spurs	126	+4.5	243.5	+1	251
12/19/24	2024	Hawks	126	Away	Spurs	133	0.0	233.5	+7	259
01/15/24	2023	Hawks	109	Home	Spurs	99	-8.0	247.0	-10	208
11/30/23	2023	Hawks	137	Away	Spurs	135	-6.5	247.0	-2	272
Hawks as Home (2 games)			117.0	-	-	112.5	-1.8	245.3	-4.5	229.5
All Games Avg (5 games)			124.6	-	-	125.6	-1.7	240.9	+1.0	250.2

Schedules

Spurs Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/23/25	2025	Spurs	-	home	Thunder	-	-	-	-	-
12/21/25	2025	Spurs	-	away	Wizards	-	-	-	-	-
12/19/25	2025	Spurs	-	away	Hawks	-	-3.5	239.0	-	-
12/18/25	2025	Spurs	119	home	Wizards	94	-15.5	240.5	-25	213
12/16/25	2025	Spurs	113	neutral	Knicks	124	+2.5	233.5	+11	237
12/13/25	2025	Spurs	111	away	Thunder	109	+10.5	233.5	-2	220
12/10/25	2025	Spurs	132	away	Lakers	119	+7.5	243.5	-13	251
12/08/25	2025	Spurs	135	away	Pelicans	132	-8.5	237.5	-3	267
12/05/25	2025	Spurs	117	away	Cavaliers	130	+5.0	239.5	+13	247
12/03/25	2025	Spurs	114	away	Magic	112	+8.5	235.5	-2	226
12/02/25	2025	Spurs	126	home	Grizzlies	119	-5.0	232.5	-7	245
11/30/25	2025	Spurs	112	away	Timberwolves	125	+4.5	234.0	+13	237
11/28/25	2025	Spurs	139	away	Nuggets	136	+7.0	238.5	-3	275
Away Games Avg (7 games)			122.9	-	-	123.3	+4.9	237.4	+0.4	246.1
All Games Avg (10 games)			121.8	-	-	120.0	+1.7	236.9	-1.8	241.8

Hawks Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/23/25	2025	Hawks	-	home	Bulls	-	-	-	-	-
12/21/25	2025	Hawks	-	home	Bulls	-	-	-	-	-
12/19/25	2025	Hawks	-	home	Spurs	-	+3.5	239.0	-	-
12/18/25	2025	Hawks	126	away	Hornets	133	-4.5	240.5	+7	259
12/14/25	2025	Hawks	120	home	Seventysixers	117	-4.0	225.5	-3	237
12/12/25	2025	Hawks	115	away	Pistons	142	+7.0	233.0	+27	257
12/06/25	2025	Hawks	131	away	Wizards	116	-9.5	237.5	-15	247
12/05/25	2025	Hawks	133	home	Nuggets	134	+3.5	238.5	+1	267
12/03/25	2025	Hawks	92	home	Clippers	115	-1.5	225.5	+23	207
12/01/25	2025	Hawks	98	away	Pistons	99	+9.5	232.5	+1	197
11/30/25	2025	Hawks	142	away	Seventysixers	134	+3.0	232.5	-8	276
11/28/25	2025	Hawks	130	home	Cavaliers	123	+6.5	236.5	-7	253
11/25/25	2025	Hawks	113	away	Wizards	132	-11.0	238.5	+19	245
Home Games Avg (4 games)			118.8	-	-	122.3	+1.1	231.5	+3.5	241.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			120.0	-	-	124.5	-0.1	234.1	+4.5	244.5

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

9:30 p.m.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Thunder: 25-2 (92.6%)

Timberwolves: 17-10 (63.0%)

Line: +7.0

Total: 233.0

Open: +8.5

Notes

Thunder

Situational Factor(s)

2nd game of a back-to-back

Timberwolves

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

In-season revenge

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

No Play

Total Recommendation

No Play

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Recommendation
Rating Differentials	Neutral
Defensive Differentials	Neutral
Broad Feature	Neutral
RMSE/MAE	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
Pace Focused	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

Notable Trends

The Timberwolves are 28.6% (4-10) to the over/under at home

The Timberwolves are 25% (2-6) (L14) to the over/under at home

View All Records

Timberwolves (Home)

The Timberwolves are 37% (10-17) against the spread

The Timberwolves are 35.7% (5-9) against the spread at home

The Timberwolves are 40% (2-3) against the spread as a dog

The Timberwolves are 0% (0-2) against the spread as a home dog

The Timberwolves are 44.4% (12-15) to the over/under

The Timberwolves are 28.6% (4-10) to the over/under at home

The Timberwolves are 60% (3-2) to the over/under as a dog

The Timberwolves are 50% (1-1) to the over/under as a home dog

The Timberwolves are 35.7% (5-9) (L14) against the spread

The Timberwolves are 37.5% (3-5) (L14) against the spread at home

The Timberwolves are 100% (2-0) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Timberwolves are 35.7% (5-9) (L14) to the over/under

The Timberwolves are 25% (2-6) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Timberwolves are 50% (1-1) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

Thunder (Away)

The Thunder are 55.6% (15-12) against the spread

The Thunder are 53.8% (7-6) against the spread away

The Thunder are 55.6% (15-12) against the spread as a fav

The Thunder are 53.8% (7-6) against the spread as an away fav

The Thunder are 55.6% (15-12) to the over/under

The Thunder are 53.8% (7-6) to the over/under away

The Thunder are 55.6% (15-12) to the over/under as a fav

The Thunder are 53.8% (7-6) to the over/under as an away fav

The Thunder are 50% (7-7) (L14) against the spread

The Thunder are 50% (3-3) (L14) against the spread away

The Thunder are 50% (7-7) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Thunder are 50% (3-3) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Thunder are 57.1% (8-6) (L14) to the over/under

The Thunder are 66.7% (4-2) (L14) to the over/under away

The Thunder are 57.1% (8-6) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Thunder are 66.7% (4-2) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/26/25	2025	Timberwolves	105	Away	Thunder	113	+10.5	226.5	+8	218
05/28/25	2024	Timberwolves	94	Away	Thunder	124	+9.0	222.0	+30	218
05/26/25	2024	Timberwolves	126	Home	Thunder	128	+3.0	219.0	+2	254
05/24/25	2024	Timberwolves	143	Home	Thunder	101	+3.0	216.5	-42	244
05/22/25	2024	Timberwolves	103	Away	Thunder	118	+8.5	217.5	+15	221
05/20/25	2024	Timberwolves	88	Away	Thunder	114	+7.0	218.5	+26	202
02/24/25	2024	Timberwolves	131	Away	Thunder	128	+11.5	228.5	-3	259
02/23/25	2024	Timberwolves	123	Home	Thunder	130	+9.0	228.0	+7	253
02/13/25	2024	Timberwolves	116	Home	Thunder	101	+9.5	229.5	-15	217
12/31/24	2024	Timberwolves	105	Away	Thunder	113	+7.0	216.5	+8	218
Timberwolves as Home (4 games)			127.0	-	-	115.0	+6.1	223.3	-12.0	242.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			113.4	-	-	117.0	+7.8	222.3	+3.6	230.4

Schedules

Thunder Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/23/25	2025	Thunder	-	away	Spurs	-	-	-	-	-
12/22/25	2025	Thunder	-	home	Grizzlies	-	-	-	-	-
12/19/25	2025	Thunder	-	away	Timberwolves	-	-7.0	233.0	-	-
12/18/25	2025	Thunder	122	home	Clippers	101	-16.5	222.5	-21	223
12/13/25	2025	Thunder	109	home	Spurs	111	-10.5	233.5	+2	220
12/10/25	2025	Thunder	138	home	Suns	89	-15.5	221.5	-49	227
12/07/25	2025	Thunder	131	away	Jazz	101	-11.5	233.5	-30	232
12/05/25	2025	Thunder	132	home	Mavericks	111	-15.5	229.0	-21	243
12/02/25	2025	Thunder	124	away	Warriors	112	-11.0	223.5	-12	236
11/30/25	2025	Thunder	123	away	Trailblazers	115	-11.5	234.0	-8	238
11/28/25	2025	Thunder	123	home	Suns	119	-14.5	223.5	-4	242
11/26/25	2025	Thunder	113	home	Timberwolves	105	-10.5	226.5	-8	218
11/23/25	2025	Thunder	122	home	Trailblazers	95	-16.5	233.5	-27	217
Away Games Avg (3 games)			126.0	-	-	109.3	-11.3	230.3	-16.7	235.3
All Games Avg (10 games)			123.7	-	-	105.9	-13.4	228.1	-17.8	229.6

Timberwolves Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/23/25	2025	Timberwolves	-	home	Knicks	-	-	-	-	-
12/21/25	2025	Timberwolves	-	home	Bucks	-	-	-	-	-
12/19/25	2025	Timberwolves	-	home	Thunder	-	+7.0	233.0	-	-
12/17/25	2025	Timberwolves	110	home	Grizzlies	116	-6.5	227.0	+6	226
12/14/25	2025	Timberwolves	117	home	Kings	103	-9.5	235.5	-14	220
12/12/25	2025	Timberwolves	127	away	Warriors	120	+4.5	228.5	-7	247
12/08/25	2025	Timberwolves	105	home	Suns	108	-8.0	226.0	+3	213
12/06/25	2025	Timberwolves	109	home	Clippers	106	-8.5	227.5	-3	215
12/04/25	2025	Timberwolves	125	away	Pelicans	116	-11.5	233.5	-9	241
12/02/25	2025	Timberwolves	149	away	Pelicans	142	-12.5	229.5	-7	291
11/30/25	2025	Timberwolves	125	home	Spurs	112	-4.5	234.0	-13	237
11/29/25	2025	Timberwolves	119	home	Celtics	115	-6.0	229.5	-4	234
11/26/25	2025	Timberwolves	105	away	Thunder	113	+10.5	226.5	+8	218
Home Games Avg (6 games)			114.2	-	-	110.0	-7.2	229.9	-4.2	224.2
All Games Avg (10 games)			119.1	-	-	115.1	-5.2	229.8	-4.0	234.2

Premium Content

7:00 p.m. Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics

Notes

Heat

Situational Factor(s)

Celtics

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Celtics (Home)

Heat (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Heat Schedule

Celtics Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

7:00 p.m. Philadelphia Seventysixers @ New York Knicks

Notes

Seventysixers

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Knicks

Situational Factor(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Knicks (Home)

Seventysixers (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Seventysixers Schedule

Knicks Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

7:30 p.m. Chicago Bulls @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Notes

Bulls

Situational Factor(s)

Cavaliers

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Cavaliers (Home)

Bulls (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Bulls Schedule

Cavaliers Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

7:30 p.m. San Antonio Spurs @ Atlanta Hawks

Notes

Spurs

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Hawks

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Hawks (Home)

Spurs (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Spurs Schedule

7:00 p.m.
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics

7:00 p.m.
Philadelphia Seventysixers @ New York Knicks

7:30 p.m.
Chicago Bulls @ Cleveland Cavaliers

7:30 p.m.
San Antonio Spurs @ Atlanta Hawks

9:30 p.m.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves