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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Celtics (-14.5) a 40-29.8% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 210 around 4.8-4.2% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Celtics have a 50% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 4.5% chance of going over the total.


Heat Situational Notes
In-season revenge

Baller Systems
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Celtics Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Heat Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/24BOSMIA +13.5
BOS -13.5
206MIA---
4/21BOSMIA +14.5
BOS -14.5
210MIA---
4/19MIA [ 112 ]MIA -2.5
CHI +2.5
207.5CHI [ 91 ]+21+18.5-4.5
4/17PHI [ 105 ]MIA +6
PHI -6
208.5MIA [ 104 ]-1+5+0.5
4/14MIA [ 118 ]MIA -15
TOR +15
220.5TOR [ 103 ]+150+0.5
4/12MIA [ 125 ]MIA -14
TOR +14
220TOR [ 103 ]+22+8+8
4/10MIA [ 92 ]MIA +5.5
DAL -5.5
215.5DAL [ 111 ]-19-13.5-12.5
4/9ATL [ 111 ]MIA -3.5
ATL +3.5
222MIA [ 117 ]+6+2.5+6
4/7IND [ 117 ]MIA +1.5
IND -1.5
227.5MIA [ 115 ]-2-0.5+4.5
4/5HOU [ 104 ]MIA -2.5
HOU +2.5
215MIA [ 119 ]+15+12.5+8

Celtics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/24BOSBOS -13.5
MIA +13.5
206MIA---
4/21BOSBOS -14.5
MIA +14.5
210MIA---
4/14BOS [ 132 ]BOS -10
WAS +10
229.5WAS [ 122 ]+100+24.5
4/12BOS [ 131 ]BOS -7.5
CHA +7.5
217.5CHA [ 98 ]+33+25.5+11.5
4/11BOS [ 109 ]BOS +3
NYK -3
221.5NYK [ 118 ]-9-6+5.5
4/9MIL [ 104 ]BOS -2
MIL +2
228BOS [ 91 ]-13-15-33
4/7BOS [ 124 ]BOS -16
POR +16
216POR [ 107 ]+17+1+15
4/5BOS [ 101 ]BOS -10
SAC +10
226SAC [ 100 ]+1-9-25
4/3BOS [ 135 ]BOS -8.5
OKC +8.5
230.5OKC [ 100 ]+35+26.5+4.5
4/1CHA [ 104 ]BOS -17
CHA +17
219BOS [ 118 ]+14-3+3

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
5/1BOSBOS -13
MIA +13
201.5MIA--------
4/29MIABOS -10.5
MIA +10.5
203.5BOS--------
4/27MIABOS -9.5
MIA +9.5
206.5BOS--------
4/24BOSBOS -13.5
MIA +13.5
206MIA--------
4/21BOSBOS -14.5
MIA +14.5
210MIA--------
2/11MIA [ 106 ]BOS -5.5
MIA +5.5
226BOS [ 110 ]+4-1.5-10109.7120.41164.4216
1/25MIA [ 110 ]BOS -8
MIA +8
224BOS [ 143 ]+33+25+29110156.112036253
10/27BOS [ 119 ]BOS -8.5
MIA +8.5
217.5MIA [ 111 ]+8-0.5+12.5119.2119.8111.78.1230
5/29BOS [ 84 ]BOS -7
MIA +7
204MIA [ 103 ]-19-26-17109.192.4113.3-20.9187
5/27MIA [ 103 ]BOS -2
MIA +2
209BOS [ 104 ]+1-1-2107.3116.4115.21.1207
5/25BOS [ 110 ]BOS -8.5
MIA +8.5
215MIA [ 97 ]+13+4.5-8101.3130.3114.915.4207


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Heat 1h2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 1-11-00-00-00-10-00-00-00-0
Celtics 1h0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 0-00-00-00-00-00-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Heat 1h2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Heat 1h0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Heat 1h0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Heat 1h0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 0-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Celtics0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Heat0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)