NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/11, Final: 32 – 29
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

49ers: 4-0 (100.0%) - NFC West | Market Rating: +2.07

Seahawks: 3-1 (75.0%) - NFC West | Market Rating: +3.29 | Home Field: +2.2 pts

Line: -3.0

Total: 47.0

Open: -3.5

Open: 47.5

Team totals: 49ers 21.5 · Seahawks 24.5 (open 22.5 / 24.5)

NWS forecast: 56°F wind 9 mph N (gusts 14) 0% precip · Sunny (last before kickoff)

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Injury Report as of Oct 11, 11:37 PM ET SF4 Out1 Questionable SEA1 Questionable

San Francisco 49ers

Player	Pos · Snaps	Status	Reason
Tatum Bethune	LB · 89%	Out	inactive Updated Oct 11
Nick Bosa	DL · 64%	Out	inactive Updated Oct 9
Marques Sigle	S · 63%	Out	inactive Updated Oct 7
Kyle Juszczyk	FB · 49%	Out	inactive Updated Oct 7
Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR · 63%	Questionable	Samuel (hamstring) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Seahawks, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Updated Oct 11

Not in rotation (under 40% of snaps, or no snap in the team's last 8 games): Enrique Cruz Jr., James Thompson Jr., Kurtis Rourke

Seattle Seahawks

Player	Pos · Snaps	Status	Reason
Drake Thomas	LB · 75%	Questionable	Thomas (ankle) is questionable to return to Sunday's contest against the 49ers, Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13 Seattle reports. Updated Oct 11

Not in rotation (under 40% of snaps, or no snap in the team's last 8 games): Chazz Surratt, Irv Charles, Jalen Milroe, Julian Neal, Montorie Foster Jr., Nick Kallerup, Robert Henry Jr., Zach Charbonnet

Snaps his share of the team's offensive or defensive snaps in the games he played, over the team's last 8 games.
Not in rotation under 40% of snaps, or no snap in those games (long-term absences).
a position group with 2+ starters (50%+ of snaps, 40%+ on the D-line) out or doubtful, or 3+ counting questionable.
Updated the first report with his current status, looking back 120 days at most. “Or earlier” means it reaches the oldest report we have.

Notes

49ers

Baller System(s)

Back divisional road team with above average passing vs poor pass defefnse

Fade home team whose next game is on Thursday

Unders system: playoff rematch

Seahawks

Situational Factor(s)

Lookahead: next game is on Thursday (short 3-day rest)

Baller System(s)

Over system based on market totals vs. average scoring

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

49ers

55.63% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

49ers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/25/26 2026	49ers	-	@	Falcons	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	50.0	-	-
10/19/26 2026	49ers	-	vs.	Commanders	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.0	51.5	-	-
10/11/26 2026	49ers	-	@	Seahawks	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	47.0	-	-
10/04/26 2026	49ers	24	vs.	Broncos	14	358	140	218	0	1	-3.0	48.5	-10	U 38 -10.5
09/27/26 2026	49ers	36	vs.	Cardinals	30	437	140	297	0	1	-7.5	48.5	-6	O 66 +17.5
09/20/26 2026	49ers	35	vs.	Dolphins	13	382	95	287	0	0	-13.0	45.0	-22	O 48 +3.0
09/10/26 2026	49ers	27	vs.	Rams	7	379	174	205	1	0	+3.5	47.5	-20	U 34 -13.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/17/26 2025	49ers	6	@	Seahawks	41	252	108	144	0	3	+7.0	44.5	+35	O 47 +2.5
01/11/26 2025	49ers	23	@	Eagles	19	366	75	291	0	2	+5.5	44.5	-4	U 42 -2.5
01/03/26 2025	49ers	3	vs.	Seahawks	13	180	53	127	0	0	+2.5	48.5	+10	U 16 -32.5
12/28/25 2025	49ers	42	vs.	Bears	38	503	200	303	0	0	-4.5	51.5	-4	O 80 +28.5
12/22/25 2025	49ers	48	@	Colts	27	440	145	295	1	1	-6.5	46.5	-21	O 75 +28.5
12/14/25 2025	49ers	37	vs.	Titans	24	433	138	295	0	1	-12.5	44.5	-13	O 61 +16.5

All Games Avg (4 games this season)		30.5	-	-	16.0	389	137	252	0.3	0.5	-5.0	47.4	-14.5 +9.5	U 46.5 -0.9

Seahawks Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/25/26 2026	Seahawks	-	vs.	Chiefs	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.0	43.0	-	-
10/15/26 2026	Seahawks	-	@	Broncos	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	40.5	-	-
10/11/26 2026	Seahawks	-	vs.	49ers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.0	47.0	-	-
10/04/26 2026	Seahawks	30	vs.	Chargers	23	306	138	168	2	2	-7.0	43.0	-7	O 53 +10.0
09/27/26 2026	Seahawks	31	@	Commanders	33	437	44	393	0	2	-8.5	40.5	+2	O 64 +23.5
09/20/26 2026	Seahawks	31	@	Cardinals	7	397	162	235	1	2	-4.0	41.0	-24	U 38 -3.0
09/09/26 2026	Seahawks	13	vs.	Patriots	10	297	97	200	3	0	-3.0	44.5	-3	U 23 -21.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
02/08/26 2025	Seahawks	29	vs.	Patriots	13	343	141	202	2	0	-4.5	45.5	-16	U 42 -3.5
01/25/26 2025	Seahawks	31	vs.	Rams	27	421	75	346	0	2	-2.5	45.5	-4	O 58 +12.5
01/17/26 2025	Seahawks	41	vs.	49ers	6	299	175	124	1	0	-7.0	44.5	-35	O 47 +2.5
01/03/26 2025	Seahawks	13	@	49ers	3	378	180	198	1	1	-2.5	48.5	-10	U 16 -32.5
12/28/25 2025	Seahawks	27	@	Panthers	10	310	163	147	1	3	-6.5	42.5	-17	U 37 -5.5
12/18/25 2025	Seahawks	38	vs.	Rams	37 OT	441	171	270	0	1	-1.5	42.5	-1	O 75 +32.5

Home Games Avg (2 games this season)		21.5	-	-	16.5	302	118	184	2.5	1.0	-5.0	43.8	-5.0 0.0	U 38.0 -5.8

All Games Avg (4 games this season)		26.3	-	-	18.3	359	110	249	1.5	1.5	-5.6	42.3	-8.0 +2.4	O 44.5 +2.3

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Records

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Notable Trends

The 49ers are 75% (3-1) against the spread

The 49ers are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread

View All Records

Seahawks (Home)

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1-2) against the spread

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1-2) against the spread as a fav

The Seahawks are 50% (2-2) to the over

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1) to the over at home

The Seahawks are 50% (2-2) to the over as a fav

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1) to the over as a home fav

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Seahawks are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Seahawks are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

49ers (Away)

The 49ers are 75% (3-1) against the spread

The 49ers are 100% (1-0) against the spread as a dog

The 49ers are 50% (2-2) to the over

The 49ers are 100% (1-0) to the under as a dog

The 49ers are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The 49ers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The 49ers are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over

The 49ers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
01/17/26 2025	Seahawks	41	vs.	49ers	6	299	175	124	1	0	-7.0	44.5	-35	O 47 +2.5
01/03/26 2025	Seahawks	13	@	49ers	3	180	53	127	0	0	-2.5	48.5	-10	U 16 -32.5
09/07/25 2025	Seahawks	13	vs.	49ers	17	234	84	150	2	3	+2.5	43.5	+4	U 30 -13.5
11/17/24 2024	Seahawks	20	@	49ers	17	290	131	159	1	0	+6.0	48.5	-3	U 37 -11.5
10/10/24 2024	Seahawks	24	vs.	49ers	36	364	52	312	0	2	+4.0	49.0	+12	O 60 +11.0
12/10/23 2023	Seahawks	16	@	49ers	28	541	173	368	2	1	+14.5	44.5	+12	U 44 -0.5
11/23/23 2023	Seahawks	13	vs.	49ers	31	268	88	180	1	1	+7.0	43.0	+18	O 44 +1.0

Seahawks as Home (4 games)		22.8	-	-	22.5	291	100	192	1.0	1.5	+1.6	45.0	-0.3 +1.9	O 45.3 +0.3

All Games Avg (7 games)		20.0	-	-	19.7	311	108	203	1.0	1.0	+3.5	45.9	-0.3 +3.8	U 39.7 -6.2

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision. High Confidence: 7-9 (43.8%)	49ers (2x)
Basic Stats 8-feature regression. Medium Confidence: 5-8-2 (38.5%)	Neutral
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc. High Confidence: 1-2-1 (33.3%)	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression. High Confidence: 4-6-2 (40%)	Neutral
Cover Summary	49ers
OVERALL	49ers \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/11, Final: 32 – 29 San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "San Francisco 49ers", home_team: "Seattle Seahawks", game_date: "2026-10-11" };

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Injury Report as of Oct 11, 11:37 PM ET SF4 Out1 Questionable SEA1 Questionable

Notes

49ers

Baller System(s)

Seahawks

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

49ers Schedule Follow global filters

Seahawks Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

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Seahawks (Home)

49ers (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 10/11, Final: 32 – 29
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks