NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/4, Final: 13 – 30
Washington Commanders / Indianapolis Colts Neutral site

Commanders: 1-2 (33.3%) - NFC East | Market Rating: -1.25

Colts: 1-2 (33.3%) - AFC South | Market Rating: -0.42

Line: -4.5

Total: 46.5

Open: -0.5

Open: 50

Team totals: Commanders 21.5 · Colts 25.5 (open 21.5 / 26.5)

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Injury Report as of Oct 4, 11:36 PM ET WAS5 Out1 Doubtful2 QuestionableQuarterback: 2 out IND4 OutReceivers: 2 out

Washington Commanders

Quarterback: 2 starters out or doubtful (Jayden Daniels, Marcus Mariota)

Player	Pos · Snaps	Status	Reason
Nick Cross	S · 100%	Out	inactive Updated Sep 23
Sam Cosmi	G · 98%	Out	inactive Updated Sep 25
Jayden Daniels	QB · 77%	Out	Daniels (elbow) will be a full participant in practice for Week 5 prep with the aim to play against the Giants on Sunday, Oct. 11, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports. Updated Oct 2
Terry McLaurin	WR · 76%	Out	Head coach Dan Quinn said McLaurin (hamstring) "pushed to play" before being deemed inactive for Sunday's game against the Colts in London, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports. Updated Oct 4
Rachaad White	RB · 43%	Out	inactive Updated Oct 2
Marcus Mariota	QB · 66%	Doubtful	Mariota (knee), who was ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Colts in London, is set to undergo further tests after suffering an aggravation of the right MCL sprain he initially sustained in the Commanders' second preseason game, Molly McGrath reported on the NFL Network broadcast. Updated Oct 4
Jeremy Reaves	S · 69%	Questionable	Reaves (finger) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Colts. Updated Oct 4
Charles Omenihu	DE · 55%	Questionable	Omenihu (groin) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's Week 4 matchup versus the Colts in London, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. Updated Oct 4

Not in rotation (under 40% of snaps, or no snap in the team's last 8 games): Javontae Jean-Baptiste, Luke McCaffrey, Jaylin Lane, Tyler Owens

Indianapolis Colts

Receivers: 2 starters out (Alec Pierce, Keenan Allen)

Player	Pos · Snaps	Status	Reason
Alec Pierce	WR · 75%	Out	Colts head coach Shane Steichen reiterated Monday that Pierce didn't undergo surgery on his left heel and is continuing to rehab the injury, James Boyd of The Athletic reports. Updated Sep 23
Keenan Allen	WR · 56%	Out	Allen (groin) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against Washington. Updated Oct 3
Riley Leonard	QB · 47%	Out	Leonard is inactive for Sunday's game against the Commanders in London as the Colts' emergency No. 3 quarterback. Updated Oct 4
Micheal Clemons	DE · 45%	Out	Clemons (toe) was placed on injured reserve by the Colts on Tuesday. Updated Sep 22

Not in rotation (under 40% of snaps, or no snap in the team's last 8 games): Dalton Tucker, Darius Slayton, DJ Giddens, George Gumbs Jr.

Snaps his share of the team's offensive or defensive snaps in the games he played, over the team's last 8 games.
Not in rotation under 40% of snaps, or no snap in those games (long-term absences).
a position group with 2+ starters (50%+ of snaps, 40%+ on the D-line) out or doubtful, or 3+ counting questionable.
Updated the first report with his current status, looking back 120 days at most. “Or earlier” means it reaches the oldest report we have.

Notes

Commanders

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Colts

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Colts

55.63% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Commanders Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/19/26 2026	Commanders	-	@	49ers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+7.0	51.5	-	-
10/11/26 2026	Commanders	-	vs.	Giants	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	41.0	-	-
10/04/26 2026	Commanders	-	vs.	Colts	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.5	46.5	-	-
09/27/26 2026	Commanders	33	vs.	Seahawks	31	265	82	183	2	0	+8.5	40.5	-2	O 64 +23.5
09/20/26 2026	Commanders	20	@	Cowboys	37	389	182	207	0	3	+4.0	51.0	+17	O 57 +6.0
09/13/26 2026	Commanders	22	@	Eagles	24	296	132	164	0	1	+6.0	44.0	+2	O 46 +2.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/04/26 2025	Commanders	24	@	Eagles	17	274	143	131	1	3	+3.0	38.5	-7	O 41 +2.5
12/25/25 2025	Commanders	23	vs.	Cowboys	30	336	138	198	0	0	+8.5	50.5	+7	O 53 +2.5
12/20/25 2025	Commanders	18	vs.	Eagles	29	228	90	138	0	1	+7.0	43.5	+11	O 47 +3.5
12/14/25 2025	Commanders	29	@	Giants	21	356	145	211	1	4	+2.5	47.5	-8	O 50 +2.5
12/07/25 2025	Commanders	0	@	Vikings	31	215	107	108	0	1	+1.5	43.5	+31	U 31 -12.5
11/30/25 2025	Commanders	26	vs.	Broncos	27 OT	437	143	294	1	2	+6.0	43.5	+1	O 53 +9.5
11/16/25 2025	Commanders	13	vs.	Dolphins	16 OT	385	172	213	0	1	+2.5	47.5	+3	U 29 -18.5

Away Games Avg (2 games this season)		21.0	-	-	30.5	343	157	186	0.0	2.0	+5.0	47.5	+9.5 -4.5	O 51.5 +4.0

All Games Avg (3 games this season)		25.0	-	-	30.7	317	132	185	0.7	1.3	+6.2	45.2	+5.7 +0.5	O 55.7 +10.5

Colts Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/18/26 2026	Colts	-	vs.	Titans	-	-	-	-	-	-	-6.5	43.5	-	-
10/11/26 2026	Colts	-	@	Steelers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	41.5	-	-
10/04/26 2026	Colts	-	vs.	Commanders	-	-	-	-	-	-	-4.5	46.5	-	-
09/27/26 2026	Colts	19	vs.	Texans	17	324	89	235	0	3	+1.5	42.5	-2	U 36 -6.5
09/20/26 2026	Colts	30	@	Chiefs	33 OT	329	119	210	0	0	+6.0	46.0	+3	O 63 +17.0
09/13/26 2026	Colts	23	vs.	Ravens	41	268	102	166	0	1	+3.0	48.0	+18	O 64 +16.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/04/26 2025	Colts	30	@	Texans	38	365	76	289	0	2	+9.5	37.5	+8	O 68 +30.5
12/28/25 2025	Colts	17	vs.	Jaguars	23	216	69	147	1	0	+4.5	48.5	+6	U 40 -8.5
12/22/25 2025	Colts	27	vs.	49ers	48	335	58	277	1	2	+6.5	46.5	+21	O 75 +28.5
12/14/25 2025	Colts	16	@	Seahawks	18	217	97	120	0	0	+13.5	42.5	+2	U 34 -8.5
12/07/25 2025	Colts	19	@	Jaguars	36	294	89	205	0	1	-2.5	44.5	+17	O 55 +10.5
11/30/25 2025	Colts	16	vs.	Texans	20	287	86	201	1	2	-3.0	44.5	+4	U 36 -8.5
11/23/25 2025	Colts	20	@	Chiefs	23 OT	255	74	181	1	0	+3.5	50.0	+3	U 43 -7.0

Home Games Avg (2 games this season)		21.0	-	-	29.0	296	96	201	0.0	2.0	+2.3	45.3	+8.0 -5.8	O 50.0 +4.8

All Games Avg (3 games this season)		24.0	-	-	30.3	307	103	204	0.0	1.3	+3.5	45.5	+6.3 -2.8	O 54.3 +8.8

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Records

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Notable Trends

Notable trends will be listed here starting Week 4.

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Colts (Home)

The Colts are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread

The Colts are 50% (1-1) against the spread at home

The Colts are 66.7% (2-1) to the over

The Colts are 50% (1-1) to the over at home

The Colts are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Colts are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Colts are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Colts are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

Commanders (Away)

The Commanders are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread

The Commanders are 50% (1-1) against the spread away

The Commanders are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread as a dog

The Commanders are 50% (1-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Commanders are 100% (3-0) to the over

The Commanders are 100% (2-0) to the over away

The Commanders are 100% (3-0) to the over as a dog

The Commanders are 100% (2-0) to the over as an away dog

The Commanders are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Commanders are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Commanders are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Commanders are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Commanders are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) to the over

The Commanders are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over away

The Commanders are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Commanders are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

No previous matchups between these teams in the last 3 seasons.

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision. High Confidence: 4-5 (44.4%)	Colts (2x)
Basic Stats 8-feature regression. Medium Confidence: 3-6 (33.3%)	Neutral
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc. High Confidence: 1-2 (33.3%)	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression. High Confidence: 2-5 (28.6%)	Neutral
Cover Summary	Colts
OVERALL	Colts \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/4, Final: 13 – 30 Washington Commanders / Indianapolis Colts Neutral site window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "Washington Commanders", home_team: "Indianapolis Colts", game_date: "2026-10-04" };

Odds Full NFL odds board

Injury Report as of Oct 4, 11:36 PM ET WAS5 Out1 Doubtful2 QuestionableQuarterback: 2 out IND4 OutReceivers: 2 out

Notes

Commanders

Situational Factor(s)

Colts

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Commanders Schedule Follow global filters

Colts Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

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Colts (Home)

Commanders (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 10/4, Final: 13 – 30
Washington Commanders / Indianapolis Colts Neutral site