WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 107 – 86
Phoenix Mercury @ Chicago Sky

Mercury: 10-4 (71.4%) | Market Rating: +0.85

Sky: 3-8 (27.3%) | Market Rating: -4.72 | Home Court: +1.1 pts

Line: +11.0

Total: 160.5

Open: +8

Open: 158.5

Team totals: Mercury 86.5 · Sky 74.5

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report PHXNo report CHINo report

Notes

Mercury

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Rest disadvantage

Travel fatigue, at least fourth straight game on the road

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Sky

Situational Factor(s)

In season revenge

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Mercury

58.75% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Mercury Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/29/25 2025	Mercury	-	vs.	Aces	-	-5.5	168.0	-	-
06/27/25 2025	Mercury	-	vs.	Liberty	-	-1.5	168.5	-	-
06/21/25 2025	Mercury	-	@	Sky	-	-11.0	160.5	-	-
06/19/25	Mercury	89	@	Liberty	81	+11.5	163.5	-8	O 170 +6.5
2025	ORtg: 109.5 DRtg: 99.7 Pace: 81.3			ORtg: 99.7 DRtg: 109.5 Pace: 81.3
06/18/25	Mercury	83	@	Sun	75	-14.5	157.5	-8	O 158 +0.5
2025	ORtg: 109.6 DRtg: 99.0 Pace: 75.8			ORtg: 99.0 DRtg: 109.6 Pace: 75.8
06/15/25	Mercury	76	@	Aces	70	-4.5	164.5	-6	U 146 -18.5
2025	ORtg: 102.6 DRtg: 94.5 Pace: 74.1			ORtg: 94.5 DRtg: 102.6 Pace: 74.1
06/11/25	Mercury	93	vs.	Wings	80	-7.0	167.0	-13	O 173 +6.0
2025	ORtg: 120.9 DRtg: 104.0 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 104.0 DRtg: 120.9 Pace: 76.9
06/07/25	Mercury	77	vs.	Storm	89	+5.5	156.0	+12	O 166 +10.0
2025	ORtg: 104.4 DRtg: 120.7 Pace: 73.8			ORtg: 120.7 DRtg: 104.4 Pace: 73.8
06/05/25	Mercury	86	vs.	Valkyries	77	-6.0	157.0	-9	O 163 +6.0
2025	ORtg: 108.8 DRtg: 97.4 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 97.4 DRtg: 108.8 Pace: 79.1
06/03/25	Mercury	65	@	Lynx	88	+12.5	159.0	+23	U 153 -6.0
2025	ORtg: 81.9 DRtg: 110.9 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 110.9 DRtg: 81.9 Pace: 79.4
06/01/25	Mercury	85	@	Sparks	80	+4.0	164.5	-5	O 165 +0.5
2025	ORtg: 107.9 DRtg: 101.6 Pace: 78.8			ORtg: 101.6 DRtg: 107.9 Pace: 78.8
05/30/25	Mercury	71	vs.	Lynx	74	+4.0	159.0	+3	U 145 -14.0
2025	ORtg: 90.8 DRtg: 94.7 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 94.7 DRtg: 90.8 Pace: 78.2
05/27/25	Mercury	94	vs.	Sky	89	-7.5	159.5	-5	O 183 +23.5
2025	ORtg: 115.0 DRtg: 108.9 Pace: 81.7			ORtg: 108.9 DRtg: 115.0 Pace: 81.7

Away Games Avg (5 games)		79.6	-	-	78.8	+1.8	161.8	-0.8 +2.6	U 158.4 -3.4
	ORtg: 102.3 DRtg: 101.1 Pace: 77.8			ORtg: 101.1 DRtg: 102.3 Pace: 77.8

All Games Avg (10 games)		81.9	-	-	80.3	-0.2	160.8	-1.6 +1.4	O 162.2 +1.5
	ORtg: 105.1 DRtg: 103.1 Pace: 77.9			ORtg: 103.1 DRtg: 105.1 Pace: 77.9

Sky Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/24/25 2025	Sky	-	vs.	Sparks	-	+5.0	167.0	-	-
06/22/25 2025	Sky	-	@	Dream	-	+16.5	159.5	-	-
06/21/25 2025	Sky	-	vs.	Mercury	-	+11.0	160.5	-	-
06/17/25	Sky	72	vs.	Mystics	79	+4.5	155.5	+7	U 151 -4.5
2025	ORtg: 93.8 DRtg: 102.9 Pace: 76.7			ORtg: 102.9 DRtg: 93.8 Pace: 76.7
06/15/25	Sky	78	@	Sun	66	+1.5	157.0	-12	U 144 -13.0
2025	ORtg: 108.7 DRtg: 92.0 Pace: 71.8			ORtg: 92.0 DRtg: 108.7 Pace: 71.8
06/13/25	Sky	70	@	Dream	88	+12.5	158.5	+18	U 158 -0.5
2025	ORtg: 93.1 DRtg: 117.0 Pace: 75.2			ORtg: 117.0 DRtg: 93.1 Pace: 75.2
06/10/25	Sky	66	@	Liberty	85	+16.5	163.5	+19	U 151 -12.5
2025	ORtg: 83.3 DRtg: 107.3 Pace: 79.2			ORtg: 107.3 DRtg: 83.3 Pace: 79.2
06/07/25	Sky	52	vs.	Fever	79	+3.0	166.0	+27	U 131 -35.0
2025	ORtg: 75.0 DRtg: 114.0 Pace: 69.3			ORtg: 114.0 DRtg: 75.0 Pace: 69.3
05/31/25	Sky	94	@	Wings	83	+2.5	171.5	-11	O 177 +5.5
2025	ORtg: 116.0 DRtg: 102.4 Pace: 81.0			ORtg: 102.4 DRtg: 116.0 Pace: 81.0
05/29/25	Sky	97	vs.	Wings	92	+1.0	172.5	-5	O 189 +16.5
2025	ORtg: 120.0 DRtg: 113.9 Pace: 80.8			ORtg: 113.9 DRtg: 120.0 Pace: 80.8
05/27/25	Sky	89	@	Mercury	94	+7.5	159.5	+5	O 183 +23.5
2025	ORtg: 108.9 DRtg: 115.0 Pace: 81.7			ORtg: 115.0 DRtg: 108.9 Pace: 81.7
05/25/25	Sky	78	@	Sparks	91	+4.5	164.5	+13	O 169 +4.5
2025	ORtg: 103.1 DRtg: 120.3 Pace: 75.7			ORtg: 120.3 DRtg: 103.1 Pace: 75.7
05/22/25	Sky	74	vs.	Liberty	99	+12.0	164.5	+25	O 173 +8.5
2025	ORtg: 89.9 DRtg: 120.2 Pace: 82.3			ORtg: 120.2 DRtg: 89.9 Pace: 82.3

Home Games Avg (4 games)		73.8	-	-	87.3	+5.1	164.6	+13.5 -8.4	U 161.0 -3.6
	ORtg: 94.7 DRtg: 112.8 Pace: 77.3			ORtg: 112.8 DRtg: 94.7 Pace: 77.3

All Games Avg (10 games)		77.0	-	-	85.6	+6.6	163.3	+8.6 -2.1	U 162.6 -0.7
	ORtg: 99.2 DRtg: 110.5 Pace: 77.4			ORtg: 110.5 DRtg: 99.2 Pace: 77.4

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Sky are 20% (1-4) against the spread at home

The Sky are 20% (1-4) against the spread as a home dog

The Sky are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Sky are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Mercury are 75% (6-2) to the over as a fav

The Mercury are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Mercury are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

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Sky (Home)

The Sky are 33.3% (4-8) against the spread

The Sky are 20% (1-4) against the spread at home

The Sky are 33.3% (4-8) against the spread as a dog

The Sky are 20% (1-4) against the spread as a home dog

The Sky are 50% (6-6) to the over

The Sky are 60% (3-2) to the over at home

The Sky are 50% (6-6) to the over as a dog

The Sky are 60% (3-2) to the over as a home dog

The Sky are 36.4% (4-7) (L30 days) against the spread

The Sky are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Sky are 36.4% (4-7) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Sky are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Sky are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the over

The Sky are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Sky are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Sky are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over as a home dog

Mercury (Away)

The Mercury are 60% (9-6) against the spread

The Mercury are 57.1% (4-3) against the spread away

The Mercury are 62.5% (5-3) against the spread as a fav

The Mercury are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Mercury are 60% (9-6) to the over

The Mercury are 57.1% (4-3) to the over away

The Mercury are 75% (6-2) to the over as a fav

The Mercury are 66.7% (2-1) to the over as an away fav

The Mercury are 61.5% (8-5) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mercury are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Mercury are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Mercury are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Mercury are 61.5% (8-5) (L30 days) to the over

The Mercury are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the over away

The Mercury are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Mercury are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
05/27/25	Sky	89	@	Mercury	94	+7.5	159.5	+5	O 183 +23.5
2025	ORtg: 108.9 DRtg: 115.0 Pace: 81.7			ORtg: 115.0 DRtg: 108.9 Pace: 81.7
09/15/24	Sky	88	vs.	Mercury	93	+2.0	158.5	+5	O 181 +22.5
2024	ORtg: 117.3 DRtg: 123.9 Pace: 75.0			ORtg: 123.9 DRtg: 117.3 Pace: 75.0
08/18/24	Sky	68	@	Mercury	86	+7.5	166.0	+18	U 154 -12.0
2024	ORtg: 89.4 DRtg: 113.1 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 113.1 DRtg: 89.4 Pace: 76.1
08/15/24	Sky	65	vs.	Mercury	85	+5.5	162.0	+20	U 150 -12.0
2024	ORtg: 91.4 DRtg: 119.6 Pace: 71.1			ORtg: 119.6 DRtg: 91.4 Pace: 71.1

Sky as Home (2 games)		76.5	-	-	89.0	+3.8	160.3	+12.5 -8.8	O 165.5 +5.3
	ORtg: 104.4 DRtg: 121.7 Pace: 73.1			ORtg: 121.7 DRtg: 104.4 Pace: 73.1

All Games Avg (4 games)		77.5	-	-	89.5	+5.6	161.5	+12.0 -6.4	O 167.0 +5.5
	ORtg: 101.8 DRtg: 117.9 Pace: 76.0			ORtg: 117.9 DRtg: 101.8 Pace: 76.0

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Mercury (2x)
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Mercury (2x)
Cover Summary	Mercury
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Mercury \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 107 – 86 Phoenix Mercury @ Chicago Sky window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Phoenix Mercury", home_team: "Chicago Sky", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report PHXNo report CHINo report

Notes

Mercury

Situational Factor(s)

Sky

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Mercury Schedule Follow global filters

Sky Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Sky (Home)

Mercury (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 107 – 86
Phoenix Mercury @ Chicago Sky