WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 79 – 52
Indiana Fever @ Chicago Sky

Fever: 3-4 (42.9%) | Market Rating: +0.69

Sky: 2-4 (33.3%) | Market Rating: -3.19 | Home Court: +1.2 pts

Line: +3.0

Total: 166.0

Open: +5

Open: 168.5

Team totals: Fever 84.5 · Sky 82.5

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Games
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Injury Report INDNo report CHINo report

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Away + won previous matchup at home

Sky

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Double digit, in season revenge

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Back a dog off a win as a dog with more rest

Back team off more rest and has more rest in upcoming game than opponent

Fade a small fav (3.5 or less) off a win

Fade rusty road team off 4+ days rest

Play over on home team looking ahead to long rest and upcoming road game

Play over on well-rested teams

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Fever

55.63% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/14/25 2025	Fever	-	vs.	Liberty	-	+3.5	170.0	-	-
06/10/25 2025	Fever	-	@	Dream	-	+5.0	161.0	-	-
06/07/25 2025	Fever	-	@	Sky	-	-3.0	166.0	-	-
06/03/25	Fever	85	vs.	Mystics	76	-5.0	161.5	-9	U 161 -0.5
2025	ORtg: 115.8 DRtg: 103.6 Pace: 73.4			ORtg: 103.6 DRtg: 115.8 Pace: 73.4
05/30/25	Fever	83	vs.	Sun	85	-12.5	158.0	+2	O 168 +10.0
2025	ORtg: 111.0 DRtg: 113.7 Pace: 74.8			ORtg: 113.7 DRtg: 111.0 Pace: 74.8
05/28/25	Fever	77	@	Mystics	83	-4.0	166.0	+6	U 160 -6.0
2025	ORtg: 92.8 DRtg: 100.0 Pace: 83.0			ORtg: 100.0 DRtg: 92.8 Pace: 83.0
05/24/25	Fever	88	vs.	Liberty	90	+4.0	173.5	+2	O 178 +4.5
2025	ORtg: 105.9 DRtg: 108.3 Pace: 83.1			ORtg: 108.3 DRtg: 105.9 Pace: 83.1
05/22/25	Fever	81	@	Dream	76	-4.5	173.5	-5	U 157 -16.5
2025	ORtg: 97.5 DRtg: 91.4 Pace: 83.1			ORtg: 91.4 DRtg: 97.5 Pace: 83.1
05/20/25	Fever	90	vs.	Dream	91	-7.0	171.0	+1	O 181 +10.0
2025	ORtg: 111.7 DRtg: 112.9 Pace: 80.6			ORtg: 112.9 DRtg: 111.7 Pace: 80.6
05/17/25	Fever	93	vs.	Sky	58	-8.5	169.0	-35	U 151 -18.0
2025	ORtg: 109.4 DRtg: 68.2 Pace: 85.0			ORtg: 68.2 DRtg: 109.4 Pace: 85.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/25/24	Fever	81	@	Sun	87	+6.0	163.0	+6	O 168 +5.0
2024	ORtg: 106.4 DRtg: 114.2 Pace: 76.2			ORtg: 114.2 DRtg: 106.4 Pace: 76.2
09/22/24	Fever	69	@	Sun	93	+6.5	164.5	+24	U 162 -2.5
2024	ORtg: 88.4 DRtg: 119.2 Pace: 78.0			ORtg: 119.2 DRtg: 88.4 Pace: 78.0
09/19/24	Fever	91	@	Mystics	92	+3.0	168.0	+1	O 183 +15.0
2024	ORtg: 110.7 DRtg: 112.0 Pace: 82.2			ORtg: 112.0 DRtg: 110.7 Pace: 82.2

Away Games Avg (2 games this season)		79.0	-	-	79.5	-4.3	169.8	+0.5 -4.8	U 158.5 -11.3
	ORtg: 95.1 DRtg: 95.7 Pace: 83.1			ORtg: 95.7 DRtg: 95.1 Pace: 83.1

All Games Avg (7 games this season)		85.3	-	-	79.9	-5.4	167.5	-5.4 +0.1	U 165.1 -2.4
	ORtg: 106.3 DRtg: 99.7 Pace: 80.4			ORtg: 99.7 DRtg: 106.3 Pace: 80.4

Sky Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/13/25 2025	Sky	-	@	Dream	-	+12.5	158.5	-	-
06/10/25 2025	Sky	-	@	Liberty	-	+16.5	163.5	-	-
06/07/25 2025	Sky	-	vs.	Fever	-	+3.0	166.0	-	-
05/31/25	Sky	94	@	Wings	83	+2.5	171.5	-11	O 177 +5.5
2025	ORtg: 116.0 DRtg: 102.4 Pace: 81.0			ORtg: 102.4 DRtg: 116.0 Pace: 81.0
05/29/25	Sky	97	vs.	Wings	92	+1.0	172.5	-5	O 189 +16.5
2025	ORtg: 120.0 DRtg: 113.9 Pace: 80.8			ORtg: 113.9 DRtg: 120.0 Pace: 80.8
05/27/25	Sky	89	@	Mercury	94	+7.5	159.5	+5	O 183 +23.5
2025	ORtg: 108.9 DRtg: 115.0 Pace: 81.7			ORtg: 115.0 DRtg: 108.9 Pace: 81.7
05/25/25	Sky	78	@	Sparks	91	+4.5	164.5	+13	O 169 +4.5
2025	ORtg: 103.1 DRtg: 120.3 Pace: 75.7			ORtg: 120.3 DRtg: 103.1 Pace: 75.7
05/22/25	Sky	74	vs.	Liberty	99	+12.0	164.5	+25	O 173 +8.5
2025	ORtg: 89.9 DRtg: 120.2 Pace: 82.3			ORtg: 120.2 DRtg: 89.9 Pace: 82.3
05/17/25	Sky	58	@	Fever	93	+8.5	169.0	+35	U 151 -18.0
2025	ORtg: 68.2 DRtg: 109.4 Pace: 85.0			ORtg: 109.4 DRtg: 68.2 Pace: 85.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/19/24	Sky	54	@	Sun	87	+15.0	152.5	+33	U 141 -11.5
2024	ORtg: 74.2 DRtg: 119.5 Pace: 72.8			ORtg: 119.5 DRtg: 74.2 Pace: 72.8
09/17/24	Sky	70	@	Dream	86	+9.0	154.0	+16	O 156 +2.0
2024	ORtg: 95.5 DRtg: 117.3 Pace: 73.3			ORtg: 117.3 DRtg: 95.5 Pace: 73.3
09/15/24	Sky	88	vs.	Mercury	93	+2.0	158.5	+5	O 181 +22.5
2024	ORtg: 117.3 DRtg: 123.9 Pace: 75.0			ORtg: 123.9 DRtg: 117.3 Pace: 75.0
09/13/24	Sky	66	@	Lynx	83	+13.0	158.5	+17	U 149 -9.5
2024	ORtg: 85.5 DRtg: 107.6 Pace: 77.2			ORtg: 107.6 DRtg: 85.5 Pace: 77.2

Home Games Avg (2 games this season)		85.5	-	-	95.5	+6.5	168.5	+10.0 -3.5	O 181.0 +12.5
	ORtg: 105.0 DRtg: 117.1 Pace: 81.6			ORtg: 117.1 DRtg: 105.0 Pace: 81.6

All Games Avg (6 games this season)		81.7	-	-	92.0	+6.0	166.9	+10.3 -4.3	O 173.7 +6.8
	ORtg: 101.0 DRtg: 113.5 Pace: 81.1			ORtg: 113.5 DRtg: 101.0 Pace: 81.1

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Sky are 71.4% (5-2) to the over

The Sky are 71.4% (5-2) to the over as a dog

The Sky are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Sky are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Fever are 71.4% (5-2) to the under as a fav

The Fever are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

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Sky (Home)

The Sky are 42.9% (3-4) against the spread

The Sky are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread at home

The Sky are 42.9% (3-4) against the spread as a dog

The Sky are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread as a home dog

The Sky are 71.4% (5-2) to the over

The Sky are 66.7% (2-1) to the over at home

The Sky are 71.4% (5-2) to the over as a dog

The Sky are 66.7% (2-1) to the over as a home dog

The Sky are 42.9% (3-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Sky are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Sky are 42.9% (3-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Sky are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Sky are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Sky are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Sky are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Sky are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home dog

Fever (Away)

The Fever are 62.5% (5-3) against the spread

The Fever are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread away

The Fever are 57.1% (4-3) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Fever are 62.5% (5-3) to the under

The Fever are 100% (3-0) to the under away

The Fever are 71.4% (5-2) to the under as a fav

The Fever are 100% (3-0) to the under as an away fav

The Fever are 62.5% (5-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fever are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Fever are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Fever are 62.5% (5-3) (L30 days) to the under

The Fever are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) to the under away

The Fever are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Fever are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) to the under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
05/17/25	Sky	58	@	Fever	93	+8.5	169.0	+35	U 151 -18.0
2025	ORtg: 68.2 DRtg: 109.4 Pace: 85.0			ORtg: 109.4 DRtg: 68.2 Pace: 85.0
08/30/24	Sky	81	vs.	Fever	100	+7.0	163.5	+19	O 181 +17.5
2024	ORtg: 100.4 DRtg: 124.0 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 124.0 DRtg: 100.4 Pace: 80.7
06/23/24	Sky	88	vs.	Fever	87	-2.0	169.5	-1	O 175 +5.5
2024	ORtg: 106.9 DRtg: 105.7 Pace: 82.3			ORtg: 105.7 DRtg: 106.9 Pace: 82.3
06/16/24	Sky	83	@	Fever	91	+2.5	170.0	+8	O 174 +4.0
2024	ORtg: 108.3 DRtg: 118.7 Pace: 76.6			ORtg: 118.7 DRtg: 108.3 Pace: 76.6
06/01/24	Sky	70	@	Fever	71	-1.5	167.5	+1	U 141 -26.5
2024	ORtg: 91.6 DRtg: 92.9 Pace: 76.4			ORtg: 92.9 DRtg: 91.6 Pace: 76.4

Sky as Home (2 games)		84.5	-	-	93.5	+2.5	166.5	+9.0 -6.5	O 178.0 +11.5
	ORtg: 103.7 DRtg: 114.8 Pace: 81.5			ORtg: 114.8 DRtg: 103.7 Pace: 81.5

All Games Avg (5 games)		76.0	-	-	88.4	+2.9	167.9	+12.4 -9.5	U 164.4 -3.5
	ORtg: 95.1 DRtg: 110.1 Pace: 80.2			ORtg: 110.1 DRtg: 95.1 Pace: 80.2

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Fever (2x)
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Cover Summary	Fever
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Fever \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 79 – 52 Indiana Fever @ Chicago Sky window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Indiana Fever", home_team: "Chicago Sky", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report INDNo report CHINo report

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Sky

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Sky Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

Next Player Up

Records

Notable Trends

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Sky (Home)

Fever (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 79 – 52
Indiana Fever @ Chicago Sky