WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 89 – 77
Seattle Storm @ Phoenix Mercury

Storm: 4-4 (50.0%) | Market Rating: +1.98

Mercury: 6-3 (66.7%) | Market Rating: -1.02 | Home Court: +2.7 pts

Line: +5.5

Total: 156.0

Open: +5

Open: 157

Team totals: Storm 80.5 · Mercury 75.5

Odds Full WNBA odds board

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report SEANo report PHXNo report

Notes

Storm

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Back road team off win w/ more rest

Mercury

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

In season revenge

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Storm

55.63% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Storm Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/14/25 2025	Storm	-	@	Valkyries	-	-10.0	155.0	-	-
06/11/25 2025	Storm	-	vs.	Lynx	-	+3.5	155.0	-	-
06/07/25 2025	Storm	-	@	Mercury	-	-5.5	156.0	-	-
06/03/25	Storm	83	vs.	Wings	77	-10.5	166.0	-6	U 160 -6.0
2025	ORtg: 100.4 DRtg: 93.2 Pace: 82.7			ORtg: 93.2 DRtg: 100.4 Pace: 82.7
06/01/25	Storm	70	vs.	Aces	75	+3.0	161.0	+5	U 145 -16.0
2025	ORtg: 89.6 DRtg: 96.0 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 96.0 DRtg: 89.6 Pace: 78.2
05/30/25	Storm	87	vs.	Dream	94	-5.0	156.5	+7	O 181 +24.5
2025	ORtg: 107.6 DRtg: 116.3 Pace: 80.8			ORtg: 116.3 DRtg: 107.6 Pace: 80.8
05/27/25	Storm	77	@	Lynx	82	+7.0	156.0	+5	O 159 +3.0
2025	ORtg: 102.9 DRtg: 109.6 Pace: 74.8			ORtg: 109.6 DRtg: 102.9 Pace: 74.8
05/25/25	Storm	102	vs.	Aces	82	+5.0	158.0	-20	O 184 +26.0
2025	ORtg: 127.5 DRtg: 102.5 Pace: 80.0			ORtg: 102.5 DRtg: 127.5 Pace: 80.0
05/23/25	Storm	77	vs.	Mercury	70	-6.0	157.5	-7	U 147 -10.5
2025	ORtg: 97.4 DRtg: 88.5 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 88.5 DRtg: 97.4 Pace: 79.1
05/19/25	Storm	79	@	Wings	71	-3.5	166.0	-8	U 150 -16.0
2025	ORtg: 98.6 DRtg: 88.6 Pace: 80.1			ORtg: 88.6 DRtg: 98.6 Pace: 80.1
05/17/25	Storm	59	@	Mercury	81	-6.0	156.0	+22	U 140 -16.0
2025	ORtg: 77.5 DRtg: 106.4 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 106.4 DRtg: 77.5 Pace: 76.1
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/24/24	Storm	76	@	Aces	83	+7.5	159.5	+7	U 159 -0.5
2024	ORtg: 100.0 DRtg: 109.2 Pace: 76.0			ORtg: 109.2 DRtg: 100.0 Pace: 76.0
09/22/24	Storm	67	@	Aces	78	+9.0	162.0	+11	U 145 -17.0
2024	ORtg: 90.4 DRtg: 105.3 Pace: 74.1			ORtg: 105.3 DRtg: 90.4 Pace: 74.1

Away Games Avg (3 games this season)		71.7	-	-	78.0	-0.8	159.3	+6.3 -7.2	U 149.7 -9.7
	ORtg: 93.0 DRtg: 101.5 Pace: 77.0			ORtg: 101.5 DRtg: 93.0 Pace: 77.0

All Games Avg (8 games this season)		79.3	-	-	79.0	-2.0	159.6	-0.3 -1.8	U 158.3 -1.4
	ORtg: 100.2 DRtg: 100.1 Pace: 79.0			ORtg: 100.1 DRtg: 100.2 Pace: 79.0

Mercury Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/15/25 2025	Mercury	-	@	Aces	-	-4.5	164.5	-	-
06/11/25 2025	Mercury	-	vs.	Wings	-	-7.0	167.0	-	-
06/07/25 2025	Mercury	-	vs.	Storm	-	+5.5	156.0	-	-
06/05/25	Mercury	86	vs.	Valkyries	77	-6.0	157.0	-9	O 163 +6.0
2025	ORtg: 108.8 DRtg: 97.4 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 97.4 DRtg: 108.8 Pace: 79.1
06/03/25	Mercury	65	@	Lynx	88	+12.5	159.0	+23	U 153 -6.0
2025	ORtg: 81.9 DRtg: 110.9 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 110.9 DRtg: 81.9 Pace: 79.4
06/01/25	Mercury	85	@	Sparks	80	+4.0	164.5	-5	O 165 +0.5
2025	ORtg: 107.9 DRtg: 101.6 Pace: 78.8			ORtg: 101.6 DRtg: 107.9 Pace: 78.8
05/30/25	Mercury	71	vs.	Lynx	74	+4.0	159.0	+3	U 145 -14.0
2025	ORtg: 90.8 DRtg: 94.7 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 94.7 DRtg: 90.8 Pace: 78.2
05/27/25	Mercury	94	vs.	Sky	89	-7.5	159.5	-5	O 183 +23.5
2025	ORtg: 115.0 DRtg: 108.9 Pace: 81.7			ORtg: 108.9 DRtg: 115.0 Pace: 81.7
05/25/25	Mercury	68	vs.	Mystics	62	-5.5	163.0	-6	U 130 -33.0
2025	ORtg: 89.8 DRtg: 81.9 Pace: 75.7			ORtg: 81.9 DRtg: 89.8 Pace: 75.7
05/23/25	Mercury	70	@	Storm	77	+6.0	157.5	+7	U 147 -10.5
2025	ORtg: 88.5 DRtg: 97.4 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 97.4 DRtg: 88.5 Pace: 79.1
05/21/25	Mercury	89	vs.	Sparks	86	-5.5	160.5	-3	O 175 +14.5
2025	ORtg: 105.7 DRtg: 102.1 Pace: 84.2			ORtg: 102.1 DRtg: 105.7 Pace: 84.2
05/17/25	Mercury	81	vs.	Storm	59	+6.0	156.0	-22	U 140 -16.0
2025	ORtg: 106.4 DRtg: 77.5 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 77.5 DRtg: 106.4 Pace: 76.1
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/25/24	Mercury	88	@	Lynx	101	+9.0	161.0	+13	O 189 +28.0
2024	ORtg: 112.0 DRtg: 128.5 Pace: 78.6			ORtg: 128.5 DRtg: 112.0 Pace: 78.6

Home Games Avg (6 games this season)		81.5	-	-	74.5	-2.4	159.2	-7.0 +4.6	U 156.0 -3.2
	ORtg: 102.8 DRtg: 93.8 Pace: 79.2			ORtg: 93.8 DRtg: 102.8 Pace: 79.2

All Games Avg (9 games this season)		78.8	-	-	76.9	+0.9	159.6	-1.9 +2.8	U 155.7 -3.9
	ORtg: 99.4 DRtg: 96.9 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 96.9 DRtg: 99.4 Pace: 79.1

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Storm are 75% (3-1) against the spread away

The Storm are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

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Mercury (Home)

The Mercury are 50% (5-5) against the spread

The Mercury are 57.1% (4-3) against the spread at home

The Mercury are 50% (3-3) against the spread as a dog

The Mercury are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread as a home dog

The Mercury are 50% (5-5) to the over

The Mercury are 57.1% (4-3) to the over at home

The Mercury are 66.7% (4-2) to the under as a dog

The Mercury are 66.7% (2-1) to the under as a home dog

The Mercury are 50% (5-5) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mercury are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Mercury are 50% (3-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Mercury are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Mercury are 50% (5-5) (L30 days) to the over

The Mercury are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Mercury are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Mercury are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as a home dog

Storm (Away)

The Storm are 55.6% (5-4) against the spread

The Storm are 75% (3-1) against the spread away

The Storm are 50% (3-3) against the spread as a fav

The Storm are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Storm are 55.6% (5-4) to the under

The Storm are 50% (2-2) to the over away

The Storm are 66.7% (4-2) to the under as a fav

The Storm are 66.7% (2-1) to the under as an away fav

The Storm are 55.6% (5-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Storm are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Storm are 50% (3-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Storm are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Storm are 55.6% (5-4) (L30 days) to the under

The Storm are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over away

The Storm are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Storm are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
05/23/25	Mercury	70	@	Storm	77	+6.0	157.5	+7	U 147 -10.5
2025	ORtg: 88.5 DRtg: 97.4 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 97.4 DRtg: 88.5 Pace: 79.1
05/17/25	Mercury	81	vs.	Storm	59	+6.0	156.0	-22	U 140 -16.0
2025	ORtg: 106.4 DRtg: 77.5 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 77.5 DRtg: 106.4 Pace: 76.1
09/19/24	Mercury	70	vs.	Storm	89	+1.5	163.5	+19	U 159 -4.5
2024	ORtg: 90.8 DRtg: 115.5 Pace: 77.1			ORtg: 115.5 DRtg: 90.8 Pace: 77.1
09/07/24	Mercury	66	@	Storm	90	+6.0	163.5	+24	U 156 -7.5
2024	ORtg: 88.7 DRtg: 121.0 Pace: 74.4			ORtg: 121.0 DRtg: 88.7 Pace: 74.4
06/16/24	Mercury	87	vs.	Storm	78	+3.0	166.0	-9	U 165 -1.0
2024	ORtg: 107.2 DRtg: 96.1 Pace: 81.2			ORtg: 96.1 DRtg: 107.2 Pace: 81.2
06/04/24	Mercury	62	@	Storm	80	+5.0	164.0	+18	U 142 -22.0
2024	ORtg: 70.4 DRtg: 90.8 Pace: 88.1			ORtg: 90.8 DRtg: 70.4 Pace: 88.1

Mercury as Home (3 games)		79.3	-	-	75.3	+3.5	161.8	-4.0 +7.5	U 154.7 -7.2
	ORtg: 101.5 DRtg: 96.4 Pace: 78.1			ORtg: 96.4 DRtg: 101.5 Pace: 78.1

All Games Avg (6 games)		72.7	-	-	78.8	+4.6	161.8	+6.2 -1.6	U 151.5 -10.3
	ORtg: 92.0 DRtg: 99.7 Pace: 79.3			ORtg: 99.7 DRtg: 92.0 Pace: 79.3

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Storm (2x)
Cover Summary	Storm
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Storm \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 89 – 77 Seattle Storm @ Phoenix Mercury window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Seattle Storm", home_team: "Phoenix Mercury", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report SEANo report PHXNo report

Notes

Storm

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Mercury

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Storm Schedule Follow global filters

Mercury Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

On / Off Court

Next Player Up

Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Mercury (Home)

Storm (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 89 – 77
Seattle Storm @ Phoenix Mercury